Kiper: Patriots Reached on Day Two

[State]

What people are missing here is not supporting Tavon Wilson. I wish him well.

It's we passed on Kendall Reyes. And no one can refute the claim that we could have had Wilson with our second second. Or even a trade-down from 62.

It's baffling to me. But Belichick loves to be unpredictable. I just hope it's not for the sake of it.

 

[SONS_OF_BELICHICK]

If everyone can be evaluated exactly, we wouldn't need trades during the draft process. It is not an exact science and you can name any pick ....and still there is a hope that that pick is not a draft bust. A coach can only pick based on his team needs and his evaluation. He knows best.:rocker::rocker:

 

[Urgent]

Yup

....and in 1941, Ted Williams sucked because he failed to hit safely 6 out of 10 at bats.

Illegal Contact.....poster child for when patsfans.com lets in the blind squirrel who thinks the sun came up because he went looking for a nut....and stepped in it.

The only to avoid a bust is to never draft
If you don't get invited to the combine, you can't "shoot up the board".
Why wasn't Vollmer invited to the combine?

Per the ESPN interview, it appears this kid was targeted for a specific reason.

If that's what the braintrust targeted, it's "successful".

Seriously?

In baseball, hitting at a 30% rate is successful. Right. 40% is excellent. So you are going to apply that benchmark for success to selecting draft picks?

Good. How about applying it to QB completion rate. Would you be happy with Brady if he connected at 40%?

How about coach's winning percentage. Would you be happy with Belichick if he won 40% of his games? Hey, in baseball hitting, that would be world class?

Another argument here is that Belichick knows more than us, and more than the analysts. Absolutely. That's correct. But, anyone see the couple hundred hours of NFL draft programming? See the magazines? The websites? This is not the NFL draft over the phone from 1967. This is now a big industry. Analysts are paid to track a thousand or more prospects. They watch tape. They go to the Combine. They speak to coaches. They consult with guys like Polian and Casserly who have built teams.

So sure, Belichick knows more than the rest of us. But it's not like no one had heard of this kid. It's just that the scouting reports were bad. Corner safety, limited in coverage, special teams contributor.

Another argument is the 'Vollmer wasn't invited to the Combine' metaphor. He wasn't invited, and he is good. So, if she floats, then.... she's made of wood. And wood burns. What else burns? Syllogistically, all things not invited to the Combine are not starting right tackles.

At the time the Patriots took Tavon Wilson, Kendall Reyes, Vinny Curry, Rueben Randle, Josh Robinson, and others were available. Pats could have grabbed one of them, and taken Wilson with the Third or Fifth.

We'll see if Wilson makes more impact than them.

 

[Patriot 37]

What people are missing here is not supporting Tavon Wilson. I wish him well.

It's we passed on Kendall Reyes. And no one can refute the claim that we could have had Wilson with our second second. Or even a trade-down from 62.

It's baffling to me. But Belichick loves to be unpredictable. I just hope it's not for the sake of it.

I can refute it. San Diego picked after us and needed a Safety (they took one in the 3rd round). We don't know what inside info BB had on SD intentions.

I used to fall in the same stupid trap your in getting upset if a guy wasn't listed high in my draft book, but I have come to realize the Belichick knows more about football than I do.

 

[Rob0729]

What people are missing here is not supporting Tavon Wilson. I wish him well.

It's we passed on Kendall Reyes. And no one can refute the claim that we could have had Wilson with our second second. Or even a trade-down from 62.

It's baffling to me. But Belichick loves to be unpredictable. I just hope it's not for the sake of it.

Maybe Belichick didn't want Reyes. I can understand the disappointment in the pick, I really hate the "We could have had X player" game. Belichick could have had and used all 32 picks in the second round and may never had selected Reyes. Belichick just may not have been enamored with the guy.

 

[RayClay]

A month ago, when I released my draft guide, Wilson was the No. 26-ranked safety on my board. I know some coaches like him, but this is a player both I and colleague Todd McShay think could have been sitting there in the sixth round.

Hey, coaches. What the hell do they know?:bricks:

Interestingly, non draft guru Gruden (ex coach) knew about him from coach Zook, while the guru looked like he was wondering why everybody was talking about that kid who was shot in Florida.

Tayvon, Trayvon? *shuffles papers furiously*

 

[hambone1818]

I understand the over analysis from fans, the teeth grinding from picks like these despite not having nearly enough information to determine whether it truly was a reach or not. It's part of being a fan, reacting to anything and everything despite never knowing as much as the team knows.

I personally don't like doing it, though, and here's why: as others have pointed out, Mankins was a 'reach'. Vollmer was a 'reach'. McCourty was a head-shaker and everyone said 'why'd they draft a special teamer in the 1st round?'

Wilson was worked out by seven teams. Do people know that none of those teams had Wilson queued up on their draft board? No...and we'll probably never know. But I like when Belichick goes off the reservation like this, for the same reason I like when he trades up: he's got a player in mind that he WANTS and his drafting history suggests they tend to be home runs.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Just wanted to mention that Bequette wasn't a reach at all. Many people had him in that 2-3 round area. Add in that he can rush the passer. I wouldn't even have considered him a reach at 62. You can never have enough pass rushers. I don't know a damn thing about Tavon Wilson. But, I'm skeptical. Don't think they should be lumped together.

 

[RayClay]

I can refute it. San Diego picked after us and needed a Safety (they took one in the 3rd round). We don't know what inside info BB had on SD intentions.

I used to fall in the same stupid trap your in getting upset if a guy wasn't listed high in my draft book, but I have come to realize the Belichick knows more about football than I do.

Precisely the point. We can't refute anything, because we don't know what coaches and scouts do. Apparently, they had noticed this kid, I'm guessing while looking at top prospects Mercilus and Janoris "baby mama" Jenkins. these guys have their own little rumor mill and i'm betting he was worried someone (probably one team) would nab the guy he wanted.

It is all about the player you want period. If he likes what this guy brings to the table for whatever reason, he's not worried about draft position. he was going to trade down anyway, because there wasn't another player that stood out. if Bequette was gone, he would have drafted someone else. He got the two he wanted in round 1, he wanted them more than other LBs, so he maneuvered.

When you have lots of holes, you make lots of picks. He doesn't want to break in a lot of rooks this year, he wants a few and fill holes with FAs. We are already much younger.

 

[jlu52]

Coach Belichick is in responsible for managing the football operations of a team that has reached the Super Bowl in 5 of the past 11 seasons. He has earned 5 Super Bowl rings as an assistant and Head Coach. I will defer to his judgement and experience over all of the "draft gurus" assembled collectively. He is certainly not always right, but he knows what he is looking for in his football players, and I support him without reservation. I was enormously puzzled by his selection at pick number 48, but he picked the player who he felt was the best fit for his team at that moment. Wilson may be a bust someday, or he may become a impact player. Coach liked him for the pick, though, and I respect and support Belichick's decision. He had his reasons, and as a Patriots' fan, that really is good enough for me. Doesn't mean that I won't curse from my seat occasionally, but in for a dime, in for a dollar, I'm behind him all the way. Yep, I'm a homer, not blind yet, but an unabashed homer nonetheless. YMMV...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Seriously?

In baseball, hitting at a 30% rate is successful. Right. 40% is excellent. So you are going to apply that benchmark for success to selecting draft picks?

Good. How about applying it to QB completion rate. Would you be happy with Brady if he connected at 40%?

How about coach's winning percentage. Would you be happy with Belichick if he won 40% of his games? Hey, in baseball hitting, that would be world class?

Another argument here is that Belichick knows more than us, and more than the analysts. Absolutely. That's correct. But, anyone see the couple hundred hours of NFL draft programming? See the magazines? The websites? This is not the NFL draft over the phone from 1967. This is now a big industry. Analysts are paid to track a thousand or more prospects. They watch tape. They go to the Combine. They speak to coaches. They consult with guys like Polian and Casserly who have built teams.

So sure, Belichick knows more than the rest of us. But it's not like no one had heard of this kid. It's just that the scouting reports were bad. Corner safety, limited in coverage, special teams contributor.

Another argument is the 'Vollmer wasn't invited to the Combine' metaphor. He wasn't invited, and he is good. So, if she floats, then.... she's made of wood. And wood burns. What else burns? Syllogistically, all things not invited to the Combine are not starting right tackles.

At the time the Patriots took Tavon Wilson, Kendall Reyes, Vinny Curry, Rueben Randle, Josh Robinson, and others were available. Pats could have grabbed one of them, and taken Wilson with the Third or Fifth.

We'll see if Wilson makes more impact than them.

It won't matter. All that matters is how Wilson impacts this team here. Nothing those other guys do elsewhere will remotely equate to what they might or might not have done here. Most of those guys fell out of the first, perhaps with good reason. Perhaps Wilson rose for equally good reason. We just don't know what those reasons were. All we do know is as far as Bill is concerned once you're here it doesn't matter how you got here - whether it was by reach or via fall - all that matters is whether you are a productive system and scheme fit. One thing this kid clearly has going for him is versatility and to a guy who can get a team with a 31st ranked defense to a superbowl that adds value to whatever talent you may possess.

If you want a guy and you can't trade back let alone still be sure you can land him you take him rather than take a guy you clearly don't really want just because he's available...

 

[patsfan13]

BB as usual nails it in his comments (through Reiss)

2012 draft: Tavon Wilson a reach in Round 2? Not to Bill Belichick - ESPN Boston

"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

:singing:

Great stuff.

 

[BradyManny]

I have mixed feelings on the Tavon Wilson pick.

On the one hand, my instincts tell me that it will work out. Belichick has whiffed on some small reaches (Brace, Cunningham, Wheatley) - but when he pulls a guy out of left field (Vollmer, Mankins to some extent), he's usually right.

On the other hand, it's likely we could've drafted him much later in the draft. Belichick later admitted in the Holley book that they could've gotten Vollmer way later. That's probably the case here. We don't have enough information to decide if that's the case though.

Without enough information to form an accurate opinion, all we can do is guess. So I think enough debate has already been wasted on guesses.

What I don't get is how we got hosed in the trade down with Green Bay. The going rate of what picks were worth in that range had been established, teams were moving up pretty liberally, and we got by far the worst deal. It's one of the worst deals, value-wise, I can even think of in recent memory. And Bill Belichick was behind it? It just doesn't jive value-wise.

We essentially gave up the value of a 3rd round pick for nothing (if going by the trade value chart, which proved accurate enough for the rest of the trades last evening) - I just can't fathom Belichick doing that.

Did he view the board as so deep in that range that he could drop to the 3rd and get his guy? Did he have so little respect for the board that he didn't see anyone worth picking in that range? Did Green Bay have more leverage knowing we had no other picks and that we had to move down? Were teams asking more of Belichick this weekend because of it, and because plenty of other teams were willing trade partners?

It's an interesting question - and another that we don't know the answer too. Bottom line, trades were going liberally this weekend, and the Patriots were only on the good side of things when moving up - not their conventional moving down. Plenty of other teams, however, stepped in and got great value for trade downs. I hope that this is not something we see repeated going forward.

 

[hambone1818]

EDIT: BradyManny stole my thunder, beat me to the punch on the trade of pick 62. Big-time headscratcher, and it's the only thing that we can definitively point to as a bad decision.

 

[Snake Eyes]

It won't matter. All that matters is how Wilson impacts this team here. Nothing those other guys do elsewhere will remotely equate to what they might or might not have done here. Most of those guys fell out of the first, perhaps with good reason. Perhaps Wilson rose for equally good reason. We just don't know what those reasons were. All we do know is as far as Bill is concerned once you're here it doesn't matter how you got here - whether it was by reach or via fall - all that matters is whether you are a productive system and scheme fit. One thing this kid clearly has going for him is versatility and to a guy who can get a team with a 31st ranked defense to a superbowl that adds value to whatever talent you may possess.

If you want a guy and you can't trade back let alone still be sure you can land him you take him rather than take a guy you clearly don't really want just because he's available...

Your basing your argument on the premise that because BB took a player the pick has to make sense, which is circular reasoning.

So, spending a 2nd round pick on a player who is heavy footed when trying to redirect, has poor instincts, is a bad tackler, is weak in coverage, and I'm supposed to believe it's a good pick because it's BB that pulled the trigger?

No, I handed in my BB Kool-Aid glass a long time ago, he's failed plenty. Having a QB like TFB has masked a lot of his GM gaffes.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Don't take my word for it, [PatsfaninPitts]. Google Ron Zook. And you'll find he's been fired. The talent's there but the production is not. Poor coaching up and down the sidelines with that program for the past few years. Everyone who is a Big Ten fan knows this.

My being a member of Mensa is beside the point. Or, as we like to say, an exogenous variable.

What you cannot seem to grasp is that makes this pick all the more intriguing. He won't be poorly coached here. You seem to want to blame him for being a failed leader on an underperforming team when the fact is he stuck around through apparent adversity and was a selfless team leader on a poorly coached team. That actually moved him up on Bill's board...because he knows the way you succeed in this league is not by accumulating overhyped and potentially entitled talent but by being driven to overcome adversity. Because it is the one constant in most NFL seasons.

 

[ivanvamp]

Would you have taken Tom Brady in the first round, knowing what you know now or would you still wait till the 6th?

If I knew that he would be available in the 6th, then yes, I still would have waited until the 6th. If I knew that other teams would somehow *know* what Brady would become, then I would have tried to draft him sooner, but then again, it wouldn't have mattered, because if people knew what he'd become, he would have been the #1 pick in the draft that year and New England would have had no shot at him at all.

 

[patsfan13]

Your basing your argument on the premise that because BB took a player the pick has to make sense, which is circular reasoning.

So, spending a 2nd round pick on a player who is heavy footed when trying to redirect, has poor instincts, is a bad tackler, is weak in coverage, and I'm supposed to believe it's a good pick because it's BB that pulled the trigger?

No, I handed in my BB Kool-Aid glass a long time ago, he's failed plenty. Having a QB like TFB has masked a lot of his GM gaffes.

So is this based on how he performed for Caserio in the eprsonal workout?



Oh wait you werent there.....



From BB:

"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can." {/quote]

 

[hambone1818]

Your basing your argument on the premise that because BB took a player the pick has to make sense, which is circular reasoning.

So, spending a 2nd round pick on a player who is heavy footed when trying to redirect, has poor instincts, is a bad tackler, is weak in coverage, and I'm supposed to believe it's a good pick because it's BB that pulled the trigger?

No, I handed in my BB Kool-Aid glass a long time ago, he's failed plenty. Having a QB like TFB has masked a lot of his GM gaffes.

What do you say to all the draft analyses that have come out saying the Patriots have been far and away the most successful team over the last decade in the draft? Even excluding the Brady pick there have been any number of home runs, along with dozens of solid depth picks.

'Failing plenty' is something every single team does in the draft. Not every 2nd rounder pans out...hell, not every 1st rounder pans out. But like it or not Belichick has done better in the draft anyone else over the past decade, which is why I always give him the benefit of the doubt on questionable picks--even if they don't pan out.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Your basing your argument on the premise that because BB took a player the pick has to make sense, which is circular reasoning.

So, spending a 2nd round pick on a player who is heavy footed when trying to redirect, has poor instincts, is a bad tackler, is weak in coverage, and I'm supposed to believe it's a good pick because it's BB that pulled the trigger?

No, I handed in my BB Kool-Aid glass a long time ago, he's failed plenty. Having a QB like TFB has masked a lot of his GM gaffes.

Is that what our scouting staff said about him?

You and a handful of others should just switch beverages altogether. Go find a better overall organization to root for. One that nails all it's picks and wins superbowls every year...or at least competes for them more often than this outfit does. Good luck on your search.