The Myth About QB's Available at 33

[mgteich]

I expect at least four quarterbacks to be gone by the time we pick at 28. With no free agency, I just don't see teams taking the chance that they will be able to get a quarterback in the last first or the early second. Maybe they SHOULD, but I just don't see it.

I could certainly see a 3rd quarterback being drafted before we pick at 17. A month ago, many thought this very likey. Obviously, half of the top 16 could use a franchise quarterback. Rather than a flurry to move UP to 28 or 33, I see teams trying to move down from the top 16 (and within the top 16) and still get their quarterbacks.

For example, I can'r see Minny not drafting a quarterback at 12, although they could certainly risk moving down a couple of spots.

BOTTOM LINE
I see at least two of PONDER, MALLET And LOCKER being drafted in the top 27, if not all three. I believe that the importance of a solid quarterback is greatly underestimated by many posters and analysts.

So, when we turn off the sets on Thursday, I expect us to have made one pick, traded 28, and for all 5 quarterbacks to be gone.

If there is a great flurry to trade with us at 33, it will likely to be for an OT.

 

[BradyBranch39]

There's still the Newton wildcard, and Kaepernick.

 

[patchick]

I gather you see a clear set of 5 top QBs? I'm not so sure of that -- I see 7 possibilities in the mix, with unpredictable results. (In fact, I'll go ahead and predict that one of Kaepernick & Dalton is among the first 5 selected.)

What's more, I can't imagine that any QB-needy team has all 7 on its board. One team will be looking for leadership for its young roster and will cross off Newton and Mallett; another will decide that Ponder and Dalton just don't have the physical tools to become top NFL quarterbacks, etc.

So let's say you're a GM, you believe in your overall talent but have a desperate QB need, and you see only 3 or 4 players who might fill it. What do you do when there's just 1 left on the board? Given all the peculiarities of this season, you might just gamble on vet FAs this year and wait for the 2012 draft. But you might not.

 

[MaineMan]

Wait! There are "franchise QBs" available in this draft? When did THAT happen?

 

[dryheat44]

There's also the problem that most teams only have 1 first round pick, and most teams, while wanting to improve their QB situation, have much more dire needs. Given that, I can't see the run on QBs in the first round, given that very few carry a first round grade. I think two will be taken before the mid-twenties. Jimmy Clausen was the 2nd QB taken last year, towards the end of the first round. If he was in the draft right now, he'd be the consenses #1 pick in every mock out there. Ditto Brady Quinn. Is Cam Newton a first round talent? Yeah...probably a mid-rounder. Is Blaine Gabbart a first round talent? In November I wouldn't have been able to tell you what team he played for. Lockett, Mallett, Dalton? No, no, and no.

Now, it's a weak draft at most positions, and QB is definitely the most important position on the team, and it's hard to find a quality one, so there will be some reaching, but I think most GMs will avoid hamstringing their team by drafting a QB who's nowhere ready to compete at the NFL level in the first round. It makes more sense to trade for a guy like Kolb or Orton, and/or to take a 3rd round talent in the 3rd round. Every good quarterback in the NFL was drafted in the first 32 picks besides one. But that doesn't guarantee that drafting a QB in the first round is going to make him a good NFL QB.

I think what we'll see happening is that teams like the Cardinals, Bengals, and 49ers will play a big game of chicken to see how long they can wait before they can get their guy. Maybe around pick 26-29 one will make the move to trade up for a Dalton or Ponder, forcing the others perhaps to do the same.

 

[mgteich]

In the end, the question is when someone will be willing to start to race and draft Ponder or Mallett or Locker. Yes, I understand that Dalton and Kaepernock are now in the mix.

It is fine to decide that it makes more sense to trade for a veteran, but with no free agency beofre the draft, that may be a very risky choice for a GM to make.

I see Minny getting a QB in the first. They have no second. They may trade down once or twice before making their QB choice, but I can't see them not making one.

In any case, the story of the first round will be the quarterbacks and then the OT's.

 

[mgteich]

You mean when in the top 12 Newton will be drafted? It makes little difference to this discussion whether Newton is drafted 1st or 10th.

There's still the Newton wildcard, and Kaepernick.

 

[mgteich]

If I were drafting, that would be the case. Locker would not be in top 5.

But it the end, my speculation is that Mallett and Ponder are likely to be draft before we pick at 28. And yes, it certainly possible that Dalton or Kaepernick will be there instead.

But your point is well taken. If we look in term of SEVEN quarterbacks, the panic is less, and we could be in a position to trade down at 28 or 33 to someone who desparately needs a quarterback.

. In fact, I'll go ahead and predict that one of Kaepernick & Dalton is among the first 5 selected.

 

[MaineMan]

With some very strong D-line 1st-round D-line prospects and a "questionable" QB class, the odds of a lot of teams going QB in the first may be less than people think (IMHO). Breaking it down:

#1 CAR - 80% chance - Seems almost a lock. New regime and all that. They have Clausen, Moore and Nothing (er, "Null"). OTOH, they could probably wait till the 3rd and STILL get a QB who's better than the ones they have. Even out of THIS class. Seriously though, there's probably a significant chance they take a top DT since they have to know they'll be picking in the top five again in 2012 no matter who they pick this year.

#2 DEN - Seems very unlikely.

#3 BUF - <30% chance - They'd have to see a QB who's clearly better than Fitzpatrick (or who soon will be). Not sure I do. OTOH, they might see an OT who's clearly better than Bell, Wrotto, Colin Brown, Ed Wang and Erik Pears. That seems a lot easier. However, they'd still be able to upgrade OT at #34. Then, too, the worst part of their defense was OLB and they may have their pick of the best at #3 - not so much at #34.

#4 CIN - 55% chance - Clearly, this depends on the resolution of the Carson Palmer situation. Or maybe not. Behind Palmer they have....? (not including the possibility of later trading for Kolb - your mileage may vary).

#5 ARZ - 35% chance - They have Derek "Laughing Boy" Anderson and rookies Skelton and Hall. Hard to know for sure what they make of that trio. OTOH, they also appear to need OLB, OG, OLB, OC, OLB and possibly WR and RB. They also seem likely to be back in the top five next draft (possibly with a new coaching regime). But, not a lock they go QB. They may have options to trade down for more picks, though they also have the ammo to trade back in at #28 without using their 3rd rounder or a 2012 pick necessarily.

#7 SFO - 55% chance - Harbaugh has said he's committed to Alex Smith. Yeah, right. OTOH, they appear to really, really need a CB, possibly OLB or NT/DT (depending on Franklin's status). They also have WAY more than enough ammo to trade back in at #28.

#8 TEN - 65% chance - They have an ancient guy, an "emotionally troubled" guy and Rusty Smith (who the Pats took a long look at last year) and, of course, the "new regime" thing. Depending on how confident they are about being able to re-sign LG Leroy Harris, MLB Tulloch and DEs Babin, Ford and Ball, their only other major needs might be SS and WR. If they're not at all confident about their FAs . . . .

#9 DAL - Seems unlikely

#10 WAS - 35% chance - If Shanahan thinks he can live with Grossman for awhile, they have some pretty significant needs on the D-line, especially at NT.

#11 HOU - Seems unlikely

#12 MIN - 65% - They have Bomar and Webb. Heh. Whichever way they go at QB, they're running out of decent WRs for the guy to throw to. Also, the Williams Wall appears to be going the way of that thing in Berlin a couple decades ago. So, QB here and DT at #43? Or DT here and whatever they can get for QB at #43? Or WR here and QB at #43?

#13 DET - Seems somewhat unlikely, but you never know.

#14 STL - Seems unlikely

#15 MIA - 50% - They could take Ingram here and pick up a QB when they're picking in the top five in 2012 or go QB here and pick up ? when they're picking in the top five in 2012.

#16 JAX - 30% - They could easily trade down (with SD) or go WR or CB here and then trade for a QB after they move the franchise to Tijuana next off-season. Sanchez might be available by then.

#17 NEP - Yup. QB would be MY first thought.

The rest: outside of SEA (25% chance), probably no QBs. OTOH, the 2nd half of the 1st round could see a big run on OTs: NYG, IND, PHL, CHI, NYJ, PIT, GBY all could be looking.

To review:
#1 CAR - 80%
#3 BUF - <30%
#4 CIN - 55%
#5 ARZ - 35%
#7 SFO - 55%
#8 TEN - 65%
#10 WAS - 35%
#12 MIN - 65%
#15 MIA - 50%
#16 JAX - 30%
...
#25 SEA - 25%

 

[patfanken]

I expect at least four quarterbacks to be gone by the time we pick at 28. With no free agency, I just don't see teams taking the chance that they will be able to get a quarterback in the last first or the early second. Maybe they SHOULD, but I just don't see it.

I could certainly see a 3rd quarterback being drafted before we pick at 17. A month ago, many thought this very likey. Obviously, half of the top 16 could use a franchise quarterback. Rather than a flurry to move UP to 28 or 33, I see teams trying to move down from the top 16 (and within the top 16) and still get their quarterbacks.

For example, I can'r see Minny not drafting a quarterback at 12, although they could certainly risk moving down a couple of spots.

BOTTOM LINE
I see at least two of PONDER, MALLET And LOCKER being drafted in the top 27, if not all three. I believe that the importance of a solid quarterback is greatly underestimated by many posters and analysts.

So, when we turn off the sets on Thursday, I expect us to have made one pick, traded 28, and for all 5 quarterbacks to be gone.

If there is a great flurry to trade with us at 33, it will likely to be for an OT.

I hope you are right, because if you are then it will just mean that potential picks that the Pats would like are more likely to fall into an area where there is a chance for the Pats to get them......HOWEVER

I can't disagree with you more. Its true that Gabbert and Newton are likely to get drafted in the top 5, but should they really. Each comes with many more risks than most QB picks that high....and NEITHER are likely to have impact years in their rookie seasons. AND after that the quality shrinks as the questions rise. I can't see teams THAT desperate to draft a QB with 2nd or 3rd round grades in most years, that high in the draft. They just aren't that dumb. PLUS.......

IF you are really desperate to grab a QB for next year, there are several veteran FA's who are MUCH better possibilities than what is out there this year. Palmer, Kolb, McNabb,bulger, Pennington, Boller, Gradkowski,just to name a few QBs on the market. Even Matt Lienhert, if you are just looking at QB skills. is a better risk than the likes of Andy Dalton, Ryan Mallet. etc. These are just a few that come to mind and ALL are MUCH better options than a risk pick for bad value in the first round.

Again, while I hope you are right, I think you are dead wrong. I think a lot of teams will wait until the 2nd round and if they panic, then the 33rd pick will be more valuable than its underlying number.

 

[MaineMan]

In the end, the question is when someone will be willing to start to race and draft Ponder or Mallett or Locker. Yes, I understand that Dalton and Kaepernock are now in the mix.

It is fine to decide that it makes more sense to trade for a veteran, but with no free agency beofre the draft, that may be a very risky choice for a GM to make.

I see Minny getting a QB in the first. They have no second. They may trade down once or twice before making their QB choice, but I can't see them not making one.

In any case, the story of the first round will be the quarterbacks and then the OT's.

Actually, Minny has a 2nd (#43) but no 3rd. The teams without a 2nd are CAR, MIA and the JETS.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

In the end, the question is when someone will be willing to start to race and draft Ponder or Mallett or Locker. Yes, I understand that Dalton and Kaepernock are now in the mix.

It is fine to decide that it makes more sense to trade for a veteran, but with no free agency beofre the draft, that may be a very risky choice for a GM to make.

I see Minny getting a QB in the first. They have no second. They may trade down once or twice before making their QB choice, but I can't see them not making one.

In any case, the story of the first round will be the quarterbacks and then the OT's and the Patriots.

Fixed that for ya.

 

[MaineMan]

In the end, the question is when someone will be willing to start to race and draft Ponder or Mallett or Locker. Yes, I understand that Dalton and Kaepernock are now in the mix.

It is fine to decide that it makes more sense to trade for a veteran, but with no free agency beofre the draft, that may be a very risky choice for a GM to make.

I see Minny getting a QB in the first. They have no second. They may trade down once or twice before making their QB choice, but I can't see them not making one.

In any case, the story of the first round will be the quarterbacks and then the OT's.

Actually, Minny has a 2nd (#43) but no 3rd. Teams without a 2nd are CAR, MIA and the hateful JETS.

 

[Off The Grid]

Wait! There are "franchise QBs" available in this draft? When did THAT happen?

Well SAID, Brother Maine!!

 

[jeffbiologist]

Lets also try and see which teams are more than just a QB from making waves in 2011. Andrew Luck is a pretty good reason to sandbag a year and take BPA, Vince Young on a 1 year deal and hope for the best rather than reach that far for a marginal QB.

 

[Metaphors]

To review:
#1 CAR - 80%
#3 BUF - <30%
#4 CIN - 55%
#5 ARZ - 35%
#7 SFO - 55%
#8 TEN - 65%
#10 WAS - 35%
#12 MIN - 65%
#15 MIA - 50%
#16 JAX - 30%
...
#25 SEA - 25%

Nice breakdown. Looks to me like the floor for Gabbert AND Newton is #8. That looks to make the Vikings as the other team that could be willing to reach for a QB...and as others have noted they could be looking to slide down a bit to do it. The other interesting team is Seattle with hometown boy Locker likely still on the board.

Mapping your percentages to players, it looks to me like:

Gabbert and Newton in the top 10
Locker to Seattle at #25
Mallett somewhere in the first round with Minnesota a good bet after a slight trade-down
Kaepernick seems to have a lot of momentum by showing off a legit pro arm/accuracy to go with plus wheels. He looks to be the guy at the end of the first round taken by a team like Buffalo or Cincy trading up to get him.

Ponder is the swing guy. Teams could either see him as that last of the top guys and trade up to get him (#33?) ... or they could see him as the top of the next grouping (Dalton, Devlin, Stanzi, McElroy) and let that group play out in the 2nd and 3rd. I'm inclined to think the latter.

Unless someone drops into their laps (Ingram, Carimi, Wilkerson), I can see the Pats opening a bidding war for #28 with the teams looking to get Kaepernick once Locker goes at #25. #33 should still be a hot commodity, but maybe not for a QB.

 

[Metaphors]

IF you are really desperate to grab a QB for next year, there are several veteran FA's who are MUCH better possibilities than what is out there this year. Palmer, Kolb, McNabb,

All under contract with other teams. Cincy has said they won't trade Palmer and their owner is stubborn enough to stick with that pledge. Kolb is going to cost a ton to get and the Eagles may be willing to hang onto him without a killer offer (Vick is brittle). McNabb will turn 35 this year, is generally trending down in important categories and will be on his 3rd team in 3 years. You can get McNabb, but is he more than a 1 to 2 year guy?

bulger, Pennington, Boller, Gradkowski,just to name a few QBs on the market. Even Matt Lienhert, if you are just looking at QB skills. is a better risk than the likes of Andy Dalton, Ryan Mallet. etc.

None of these guys are anything more than a 1 year bridge to the next QB. There is no way you can sell any of these guys to your fans as a reason to show up this year.

Unless a miracle happens and free agency kicks in before the draft, I don't see how any team looking to win in 2011 can count on any QB besides the ones on their roster and what they can get in the draft. That is a scary situation for some teams and fear breeds irrational decisions.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I can see anywhere from 4-6 QB's going into the first round. Because of the CBA uncertainty and teams unable to trade for the likes of Kolb before the draft, I think we could see teams moving back into the end of round 1 to make sure they get their QB. The way I see it playing out is Gabbert and Newton are locks to go top 8, most likely top 3. After hearing Tony Sparano talk about the need for Miami to improve their vertial passing game, it made me think that Mallet is his guy and a strong possibility to go 15. I think the next QB to go could be Locker to Seattle at 25, where I think they will retain Hasselbeck for another year to allow Locker to devlop. From here on I could see Cinci, Minny and Wahington all looking to move up for QBs with the Pats and possibly the Bears looking to move down. I think Cinci is most likely to make the move up to target either Ponder or Dalton who are the best fits for their system. I think Washington will look to take whichever West Coast QB Cinci doesn't take. Minnesota is the wildcard here because they don't have a 3rd to use to move into to the bottom of the 1st, so they could be forced to move down from 12 to get one, or settle for a guy like Kaepernick or Stanzi.

 

[patman52]

I am on the other side of the fence, Thinking that only two would go in the first before the Pats.

The next 3-4 qb seem to be ranked about the same, although I think Mallet is the best of all of them.

If Newton falls to the vikings. I then think Miami waits until the CBA is cleared and Orton for a third and something more the following year..

Seattle seems perfect for Locker, But Carrol may think it is too much pressure to put on the home town team, But again, I expect a hard push for Carson Palmer with Seattle's 2nd. With likely no salary cap floor, Brown sees 10 mill more in his pocket.

I then see 28 more valuable to other teams as they jockey to get back into the first so that they have the player tied up for one more year.

 

[townes]

If the premise of this thread is that they should deal the 33 before the draft then I couldn't disagree more, the real value of that pick comes when the first round ends and teams start trying to move up for a binky. Some team is going to seriously overpay to get to the front of the line and the Patriots are in the enviable position of owning that spot. I would trade 28 or 17 before I would part with the 33. The 17 is obviously worth more but I don't think the same can be said of the 28 even though it is higher.