Week 16 Pats at Bills pre-game analysis and opinions

jmt57 · Dec 21, 2010

Week 16: New England Patriots (12-2) at Buffalo Bills (4-10)
1:00 ET at Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park NY

Post your thoughts on the game, keys to the game, pre-game analysis, and any other comments worth mentioning about Sunday's game that don't warrant their own separate thread here.

With the Bills not being a team that draws much national interest, looks like it will be off to the local sports bar for out of town fans that do not have a subscription to the Sunday Ticket:

2010 week 16 - Everything you need to know about sports on television - the506.com

Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots are the announcers; not too often that they call a Pats game.

patsfan13 · Dec 21, 2010

Well looking ahead looks like cold temps (18-21F) not excessive, chance of snow showers, thew question is how will the wind be. The Bills have been improving and have been in a lot of games (shoulda beat the Steelers a few weeks ago). They will play hard as they usually do. I am looking for the D to raise their game this week. Hope to see some guys on the D line get healthy.

The team should be motivated with BB beating on them for the flat performance last week. That and the chance to wrap up the division, and the first seed in the AFC shoud provide plenty of motivation.

The first T-shirt and hat game of the season (hopefully the first of 3). IF we come out flat doesn't bode well for the playoffs.

PATSNUTme · Dec 21, 2010

patsfan13 · Dec 21, 2010

To expand they are 4-5 in their last 9 after a tough start BUT 3 of those losses are OT losses to Pitt, Balt and KC and a 3 pt loss to CHI. Pretty impressive.

Sean Pa Patriot · Dec 21, 2010

this is not a given... the bills will come to play, with christmas week its a short week.. we have 14 games in a row, sooner or later the streak is goin to end, just hope it could wait another year.. would like to clinch this thing this weekend

jmt57 · Dec 22, 2010

Fitz's season more than just production | BuffaloBills.com | Chris Brown

Time and again the offensive players on Buffalo’s roster have talked about how Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a difference maker on the field. On pace to have the second-highest single-season passing touchdown total in team history, the production has been obvious. What has been less noticeable from the outside is the leadership Fitzpatrick has brought to a position that hasn’t had it in abundance for the Bills in recent years.

“It would take a long time to discuss what he’s brought to our football team,” said head coach Chan Gailey. “Trying to put it in a nutshell it would be that everybody sees his toughness. Everybody knows how smart he is. He does a great job of getting us into the right plays and making adjustments, during the week and in the game to allow us to be successful. Not being afraid to do anything on the football field. He’ll throw it to anybody that’s open. He’ll give anybody a chance. He’s not locked in to one thing. That gets everybody excited about playing.”

Stevie Johnson has talked more than once how everyone is “live” when Fitzpatrick is the quarterback. Everyone has a chance to make a play when he’s dropping back to pass.

“It goes further than just throw and catch,” Johnson said. “He has the confidence in us and I don’t want to let him down and I’m pretty sure nobody else wants to let him down either because he’s giving us opportunities. That’s all you can ask for as a receiver, a quarterback that’s giving everybody opportunities and not just dumping it to one player.”

Fans have seen Fitzpatrick’s toughness. He’s taken big shots in the pocket in order to make a play in the passing game. He’s thrown blocks for teammates downfield, and he’s lowered his head for the extra yard on scrambles.

What fans don’t see is the one-on-one time he spends with young teammates in the film room, or the direction expression of confidence in each and every player on his side of the ball. In the huddle or in the meeting rooms Fitzpatrick isn’t some field general barking out orders. He’s a collected competitor that’s confident he has the answers. That approach has in turn given confidence to the players around him.

Bills Prepare to Measure Themselves Against Pats | New York Times | AP

The Bills are on a bit of a roll. No longer the league's laughingstock, they've proven to be the best of the NFL's worst by beating the Lions, Bengals, Browns and Dolphins.

Their win against Miami was complete. It came on the road and was their first of the season against an opponent that came into the game with a winning record.

Fitzpatrick led a patchwork offense by going 16 of 26 for 223 yards and two touchdowns.

And the Bills inconsistent defense proved stout, limiting the Dolphins to 65 yards rushing. That's the fewest Buffalo's allowed in a season in which they've given up 200 yards rushing six times.

For coach Chan Gailey, the victory was another step in the right direction and another sign of his team's resilience in what's been a rebuilding season as Buffalo will miss the playoffs for an 11th straight year.

"I've probably overused the word character, but I don't know if you can because that's what it's all about with this group," Gailey said. "I think we have got the wins to show for the improvement, rather than just seeing improvement in our eyes as coaches."

Fitzpatrick continues to get the most out of a no-name group of receivers that's now down to 2008 seventh-round draft pick Stevie Johnson and three undrafted rookies, who are getting additional playing time following season-ending injuries to Roscoe Parrish (broken wrist) and Lee Evans (sprained ankle).

Johnson continued his breakout season on Sunday by scoring his 10th touchdown — one short of matching a Bills single-season record — while rookie David Nelson scored his third of the year.

jmt57 · Dec 22, 2010

Emory Hunt, the self-proclaimed 'Czar of the Playbook', previews the matchup.

YouTube - Football Gameplan's 2010 NFL Week 16 Preview (New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills)

On offense Hunt suggests the Pats try to get Danny Woodhead open in space to create a mismatch against Buffalo's linebackers, perhaps lining him up in the slot a few times. On defense he suggests the Pats defensive backs get a bump on the Bills receivers, play close to the line of scrimmage, which will force Fitzpatrick to wait longer for the route to develop - which will help the pass rush.

For Buffalo he suggests the Bills try to run a lot of off tackle runs and screen passes on offense; on defense the Bills have to bring pressure and find a way to force Brady out of the pocket.

sevengables_2207 · Dec 22, 2010

With any luck, Brace and/or Pryor will be back in action this Sunday. They will be needed if the focal point of the Patriots defensive game-plan will be to shut down Fred Jackson and the Bills running game. Also, the team as a whole must do a much better job of tackling than they did last Sunday against the Packers.

Brettlax3434 · Dec 22, 2010

I think this is a measuring stick game for the defense. The Bills torched us in the first meeting and their offense has gotten much better as Fitzpatrick has gained experience. Our defense has also gotten better. If the defense could make the adjustments and shut down the Bills offense this time around, it could be a good sign for the playoffs.

upstater1 · Dec 22, 2010

The top lineman on the Bills, Hangartner, isn't playing, and Lee Evns just went on IR. Evans has had a bad year so not sure how big a loss it is.

I'd be more worried about the Bills defense than the Bills offense in this game. Their OL is hurting badly.

jmt57 · Dec 22, 2010

It Is What It Is - Pats practice: Tom Brady, Dan Connolly among 8 not spotted - Christopher Price

Tom Brady, Dan Connolly, Deion Branch and Aaron Hernandez were among the eight players not seen at Patriots practice as on-field practice began for the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in Orchard Park.

Brady has received Wednesday off the last several weeks while Connolly suffered a head injury late in the first half Sunday night and did not return for the second half. Branch has been nursing a sore knee.

Also not seen were defensive linemen Brandon Deadrick, Myron Pryor and Mike Wright as well as and linebacker Tully Banta-Cain. Ron Brace returned to practice for the first time since suffering a mild concussion two weeks ago against the Bears.

Ron Brace Feeling 'Back to Normal' After Suffering Concussion in Chicago - NESN.com - Jeff Howe

Patriots second-year defensive lineman Ron Brace is feeling better this week after suffering a concussion in Chicago and missing Sunday night's game against the Packers.
"[I'm feeling] pretty good, back to normal, not too bad," Brace said Wednesday. "I'm not feeling crazy right now. I know where I'm at."

Brace has 27 tackles (18 solo) in 12 games this season, including five starts, and he's been a dependable player for depth purposes along the defensive line, which has used heavy rotations to stay fresh during most games.

The Boston College product had his best four-game stretch from Weeks 8-11, when he made 16 tackles (nine solo). That spurt was keyed by a big push he made to stop Vikings running back Adrian Peterson on fourth-and-goal in New England's Week 8 win.

TPL · Dec 22, 2010

Bills WR's Unknown To Even Belichick

I don't have enough posts to create a new thread so I'll put it here.
Heard it on local Bills talk radio on the way home.

Not like BB not to know the opponent.

Bills WR's Unknown To Even Belichick - WGR 550 SportsRadio - Home of the Buffalo Sabres

Patspsycho · Dec 22, 2010

Re: Bills WR's Unknown To Even Belichick

I am curious to see how we will handle their 4-3. The last time we played them, they were not doing so well with the 3-4 they had attempted to transition to.

From what I hear, they are doing better with the 4-3 and I would be interested to see if that formation is a better run-stopper for them, if it has resulted in reduced run stats against them.

The weather is obviously going to be bad up in Buffalo this weekend.

terabthia2 · Dec 22, 2010

I see the Patriots taking care of business and winning this game this weekend. Probably will be a grind-out win, but they'll win.

They KNOW the HFA is in sight and they'd rather do it this week than next week and have to scoreboard watch and see what the Jets are doing, despite their endless distractions. The Pats were cruising along before the wake-up-call last week and whatever inadvertent complacency they might have had I'm sure will be excised this week. The Bills will bring their A game but so will the Pats, and in the end that will be what makes the difference. We want the HFA/#1 and they want it too, so this week they go out and do it.

Go Pats! Top seed!

jmt57 · Dec 22, 2010

Re: Bills WR's Unknown To Even Belichick

TPL said:
I don't have enough posts to create a new thread so I'll put it here.
Heard it on local Bills talk radio on the way home.

Not like BB not to know the opponent.

Bills WR's Unknown To Even Belichick - WGR 550 SportsRadio - Home of the Buffalo Sabres

Thanks for that link, that's interesting. Like you said, it is not like Belichick to not know his upcoming opponent - and it is definitely not like him to give the upcoming opponent anything remotely resembling any bulletin board material as an extra incentive.

My guess is that it was a temporary brain lock. If nothing else I'm sure at minimum he knows those receivers and their tendencies by the number of their jersey from watching film on them.

Every Wednesday, the opposing team has their Head Coach call in and do a conference call with the media.

And whenever it's the New England week, you tend to get what you expect out of Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick. A perfect P.R. strategy executed normally. The flipping of questions and the gracious words about his opposition usually means predictability.

But on Wednedsay, an eyebrow or two were raised following an answer from Belichick about the current receivers on their roster.

"The Bills have several different types of guys, Johnson or Reed or Nelson, all the different guys that have played for them this year they’re not all the same."

If you'll notice, he referenced former long-time Bills' player Josh Reed, who departed from the organization this off-season.

It could be one of any number of things. Maybe it was just a slip of the mind, maybe it was Belichick being so used to seeing Reed on the Bills for as long as he can remember.

But one thing is for sure, some of the names of the receivers on the current Buffalo roster are relatively annonymous to him.

RobertWeathers · Dec 22, 2010

Re: Bills WR's Unknown To Even Belichick

jmt57 said:
Thanks for that link, that's interesting. Like you said, it is not like Belichick to not know his upcoming opponent - and it is definitely not like him to give the upcoming opponent anything remotely resembling any bulletin board material as an extra incentive.

My guess is that it was a temporary brain lock. If nothing else I'm sure at minimum he knows those receivers and their tendencies by the number of their jersey from watching film on them.

Hell Andre Reed is still in my dreams. He scorched the Pats. The again, who didn't in the early 90s.

jmt57 · Dec 22, 2010

More news from Buffalo. Although Lee Evans is on IR, they are relatively healthy right now.

Three Bills Miss Wednesday's Practice - WGR 550 SportsRadio - Home of the Buffalo Sabres

As expected, there were only a limited amount of players not active at Wednesday's practice at One Bills Drive.

In fact, that number was only three, and two of which usually get Wednesday's off as a rest day. The Buffalo Bills' players missing Wednedsay's session were C Geoff Hangartner, OT Demetrius Bell and OLB Chris Kelsay.

Hangartner is the only player likely to miss Sunday's game. He's been dealing with a knee injury, and Head Coach Chan Gailey urged that they didn't want to rush him back at this stage of the season.

Patriots' Hex Over Bills Still At 14 - WGR 550 SportsRadio - Home of the Buffalo Sabres

But at least to one other Bills' player, this game means a heck of a lot. Donte Whitner has been in news the past couple of weeks moreso for his contract negotiations than his play on the field. With Whitner and the Bills seemingly at an impasse in extension talks, this might be the final stanza for Whitner against New England in Buffalo, and his last home game as well.

Had that thought crossed his mind at all?

"It has," remarked Whitner. "There's a realistic chance it could be my last home game here in Buffalo, and I haven't beat the New England Patriots since I've been here so if it is my last home game, I'd like to go out with a 'W' against New England and get the fans here a 'W' because we haven't had one in a long time."

The Bills lost to New England 38-30 on the road in the third week of the season, and can end the streak with a win at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday.

"It's a big game for everybody," said Whitner. "We're looking at it as a big game."

TruthSeeker · Dec 22, 2010

PATSNUTme said:
I have not seen the Bills play since our game with them. All I know is that have been 4-2 over the past 6 games. This will be their statement game of the year if they can win.

A very dangerous team at this point.

I was looking forward to someone saying that it was the Buffalo Bills' Super Bowl (only the Bills get to have 2 Super Bowls a year; the first was when they came to Foxboro. ).

I guess if the Bills can be dangerous (do the Pats now have a 15 game winning streak against them?), than any team can be dangerous.

jmt57 · Dec 22, 2010

Some quotes from Buffalo coach Chain Gailey at Wednesday's press conference.

Chan Gailey: Patriots 'working very well right now' - Extra Points - Boston.com

On how is his receiving group similar to New England’s:
Well, I was just talking about the receiving corps being able to go out there and still be somewhat productive with the guys that didn’t start the season:

On what he thinks has held RB C.J. Spiller back from being more a productive player:
He’s got some things to learn about protection, some things to learn about reading blocking schemes, things that he didn’t have to do a lot of in college. He has amazing talent. He has a great work ethic. He’s going to be a very good player for a long time – I’ve said that many times before. I just think he’s got to continue to learn and get better. He’s going to be a very good player. Because of where he was picked expectations are put on somebody like that. That’s not anything he did wrong or did bad – he’s just got to learn. In five years this will never come up.

On if the Patriots’ tight ends’ roles have expanded since earlier on in the season:
Yeah, obviously there has been a comfort level now much more so with [Tom] Brady. Obviously, the coaching staff knows better what those guys can do and they’re using them in more and varied ways. So, it is a bigger role for both of those guys now.

On how to defend an offense that spreads the ball to anyone on the field:
That’s the one thing that makes them unique is they have a lot of people that can get open. They spread the field and I’ve said it before, if you have to monitor enough threats – that means you have to pay attention all across the board – then you become spread thin. That’s what they do to teams. That’s what [Tom] Brady and the offense does to teams. They spread you thin and then they get you thinking about one thing and then they run it. They get you thinking about something else, then it’s a short pass and then [they go] down the field. They do a great job with protection. Their line has been together, played together and they’re a good offensive line. So, he doesn’t have to sit back there and worry about protection. All that plays together to create problems for a defense.

On what the offense needs to do to get the running game going:
Not make mental mistakes on the offensive line. That’s the biggest thing. We made entirely too many mental mistakes and if we don’t rectify that we won’t run it this week. We’ve got to work to rectify that.

jmt57 · Dec 22, 2010

More on Hangartner's replacement, C Eric Wood, and the Bills' offensive line:

Hangartner's return uncertain - Bills & NFL - The Buffalo News

Gailey's assessment of Wood at center is mixed but added that, "he's learning." Wood also had to deal with Miami's 6-foot-4, 355-pound nose tackle, Paul Soliai.

"He's done some good things and done some bad things," he said. "It's hard to say he's been great or awful. He's been somewhere in between there. He's learning. He hasn't been there. I'll tell you what, the nose tackle we just played is right at the top of the list of guys we played this year so that was an extreme challenge for him."

Gailey's evaluation of the offensive line is indifferent as well. On one hand, the unit kept Dolphins weakside linebacker Cameron Wake out of the backfield. Wake is the league leader in sacks with 14 but was held to two tackles, one for a loss, and a hurry. The Dolphins recorded two sacks in the game.

The Bills' running game, however, was another story. The team rushed 27 times for 71 yards, an average of 2.6 yards a carry.

"Pass protection was good, run blocking was awful," Gailey said. "That's about how it was."

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