Woodhead vs Tomlinson

[CheeseMonkeys]

Oh no! Not another Danny Woodhead thread. He really has become huge topic of discussion among Patriot Fans.

I was comparing the two players myself and they both play similar roles for their team in that they are a threat out of the backfield, and have the lateral quickness to tear through a defense. Tomlinson is a starting RB and Woodhead is more of a 3rd down back, so Tomlinson has obviously gotten more carries so far this season. I don't think this means that LT is more durable. Woodhead is certainly capable of taking more carries but we do have a HOF QB throwing the ball, so it isn't necessary. One could argue that LT is much more powerful but Danny has shown good strength running through tackles. Woodhead also doesn't have a big mouth.

Who do you think is the more talented and valuable player at this point? We can forget about everything the aging Tomlinson has done in his HOF career, and just focus on each player's skills and production in 2010. If you think that they aren't comparable because Woodhead hasn't gotten enough carries then who do you think is more valuable to their team?

It will be interesting to see how many people think Woodhead is the better player in 2010 considering that one of the Jets biggest acquisitions this offseason was LaDainian Tomlinson and Woodhead was the guy who wasn't good enough.

 

[420jim]

I chose Woodhead. I think I'm the only one who noticed this.

The bigger the game the more Tomlinson doesn't show up. For years, as far back as I can remember him being the talk of the NFL, the bigger the game the more Tomlinson is absent.

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

Wait, valuable at what? Playing football or sulking on the bench?

 

[Leave No Doubt]

one of the Jets biggest acquisitions this offseason was LaDainian Tomlinson and Woodhead was the guy who wasn't good enough.

Some of the Pats' best and most notable success stories have featured "guys that weren't good enough"

 

[FibSeq13478]

Interestingly, Football outsiders' statistic for comparing the two running backs says Woodhead has been way more valuable than Tomlinson
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

Through week 14, Football outsiders' DYAR stats (an indication of total value of all snaps) for Woodhead is 140 as a rusher and 150 as pass catcher; for Tomlinson the corresponding numbers are 106 and -11.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I voted Woodhead but if we had Tomlinson I bet he would have an important role here also ... maybe a great role.

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

Interestingly, Football outsiders' statistic for comparing the two running backs says Woodhead has been way more valuable than Tomlinson
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

Through week 14, Football outsiders' DYAR stats (an indication of total value of all snaps) for Woodhead is 140 as a rusher and 150 as pass catcher; for Tomlinson the corresponding numbers are 106 and -11.

Interesting how this turned out for both teams. A signing of a released player that couldn't make the roster more successful than a huge pickup of a future HOF RB. Seems like the majority agree that Woodhead is better in 2010 unless they are just biased towards LT.

I voted Woodhead but if we had Tomlinson I bet he would have an important role here also ... maybe a great role.

Perhaps it is the Patriots system under BB which results in the success of various no named players. Not referring to Woodhead necessarily, because he has a lot of talent, but it seems that many players are simply just more successful on this team than others. So maybe a player like LT could have had great success here, but I don't think many Pats fans were that high on getting a loud mouth like LT. I wasn't against it back in the off season.

 

[WhiZa]

Try posting this on the Jets forum. I'd love to see their reaction

 

[buile]

Talented *and* valuable? Honestly? Talented -- at his peak: Tomlinson. Valuable: Woodhead.

Tomlinson is beaten up, and on a downhill slide because of it. I hate his attitude, and wouldn't want him on the team. Woodhead has a great attitude, is smart, shows very good skills which promise to get better. Woodhead is more valuable to the Patriots.

 

[Kasmir]

Interestingly, Football outsiders' statistic for comparing the two running backs says Woodhead has been way more valuable than Tomlinson
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

Through week 14, Football outsiders' DYAR stats (an indication of total value of all snaps) for Woodhead is 140 as a rusher and 150 as pass catcher; for Tomlinson the corresponding numbers are 106 and -11.

Woodhead achieved his value on far fewer touches. On a per play basis (DVOA), Woodead is 1st ranked at 40.2% rushing to 4.5% for LT's 16th ranking, and Woodhead is also 1st ranked at 61% receiving to LT's -16.5% 48th ranking. Numbers through only through the Chicago game so far.

 

[capetide]

Voted for Woodhead. Don't know if it's because LT is disappearing more and more as the season progresses or just because I can't stand Mr. Classy.

 

[eagle eye]

Absolutely love Danny Woodhead but I'm not a big enough homer to vote for him in a poll like this. I'd much prefer to have the experience of Tomlinson heading into the playoffs which makes him far more valuable imo.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Absolutely love Danny Woodhead but I'm not a big enough homer to vote for him in a poll like this. I'd much prefer to have the experience of Tomlinson heading into the playoffs which makes him far more valuable imo.

This experience?

 

[ausbacker]

For the role that we required it has to be Woodhead.

 

[Tippecanoe]

Interestingly, Football outsiders' statistic for comparing the two running backs says Woodhead has been way more valuable than Tomlinson
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

Through week 14, Football outsiders' DYAR stats (an indication of total value of all snaps) for Woodhead is 140 as a rusher and 150 as pass catcher; for Tomlinson the corresponding numbers are 106 and -11.

Mini digression, but anyone else notice who had the worst rushing DYAR on the 20-99 rushes list?

 

[patsfan-1982]

i love Woodhead, and im happy he is on the team he is great replacement for Kevin Faulk, but it hard for me to say he has more talent then LT even at this point in he's career.



Danny Woodhead, is haveing a career year with all most 800 total yerds and 5 TD's LaDainian Tomlinson, worst year was last year with 884 total yerds and 12 TD's he is a HOF player. Woodhead, is a good 3rd down RB and a nice story but IMO you can't compare them

 

[BradyFTW!]

Interestingly, Football outsiders' statistic for comparing the two running backs says Woodhead has been way more valuable than Tomlinson
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

Through week 14, Football outsiders' DYAR stats (an indication of total value of all snaps) for Woodhead is 140 as a rusher and 150 as pass catcher; for Tomlinson the corresponding numbers are 106 and -11.

To be fair, it isn't exactly a fair comparison. Woodhead is pretty specifically used only in situations where his efficiency will be maximized. LT is the lead running back on a team that runs to set up the pass. On the basis of that alone, FO's stats are misleading in a direct comparison, and Tomlinson gets a pretty massive edge in my comparison. In fact, that alone is pretty much why I chose Tomlinson. Take the same exact RB and he'll be far more valuable to the Jets than to the Pats. The Pats have proven that they can win with pretty much anyone running the ball.

I like Woodhead a lot, but even as a dual threat third down specialist, LT is probably better, speaking strictly in terms of talent. He's also a crybaby egomaniac who would never fit in with the Pats' team culture, though. He's perfect for the Jets, though, and even then the real question is why they kept Clowney and McKnight over Woodhead. Clowney over Woodhead was just an incredibly shortsighted move: massive overreaction to the 10-9 week 1 loss and not having Santonio Holmes available until week 5.

 

[Kasmir]

i love Woodhead, and im happy he is on the team he is great replacement for Kevin Faulk, but it hard for me to say he has more talent then LT even at this point in he's career.

Danny Woodhead, is having a career year with all most 800 total yerds and 5 TD's LaDainian Tomlinson, worst year was last year with 884 total yerds and 12 TD's he is a HOF player. Woodhead, is a good 3rd down RB and a nice story but IMO you can't compare them

Through 14 games Woodhead' has had only 80 carries and 39 catches in 48 targets. His production per touch is the best of any running back in the NFL this year. Tomlinson is past his prime and is having a much better year than last year, but nothing extraordinary.

LT's last good year was 2007, when he rushed 315-1474 with 15 TDs, and caught 60-475 for 3 TDs. If you project Woodhead's performance this year with the same number of touches, he'd be 315-1671 with 15 TDs, and 68-610 and 2 TD's receiving. Only LT's career year of 2006 was better than that. So Danny's is putting up elite numbers with the chances he's had.

So, yeah, I think it would be a big downgrade to have traded Danny for this year's LT.

And why should we consider Woodhead's first year playing to be his career year? Can't we give Woodhead a pass for his rookie year, given that he went on injured reserve in training camp? He spent his second year on the bench (after rushing for 158 yards in the final preseason game) -- just like Brady spent his first year on the bench, too.

And Woodhead is *not* just a 3rd down back. He's playing more and more on first down now, and his best runs have *not* been primarily 3rd down draws. He's a classic old-style scatback with surprising strength for his size. Run him from scrimmage 20 times a game behind a good zone blocking scheme and he'll easily average over 100 yards per game. He holds the NCAA all-division record for 200+ and 300+ yard games. He looks pretty durable.

Forget his credentials and apparent limitations. Danny has brought his game to the NFL, and it works here pretty much like it's worked everywhere. Maybe he'll fall to earth, but the evidence on the field is backed by the stats: Danny Woodhead is "breaking out" before our very eyes.

 

[BradyFTW!]

LT's last good year was 2007, when he rushed 315-1474 with 15 TDs, and caught 60-475 for 3 TDs. If you project Woodhead's performance this year with the same number of touches, he'd be 315-1671 with 15 TDs, and 68-610 and 2 TD's receiving. Only LT's career year of 2006 was better than that. So Danny's is putting up elite numbers with the chances he's had.

And there's the flaw in the logic that you're using, IMO. You can't assume that Woodhead's performance would stay at its current level over a larger number of touches. He's already touching the ball only in situations that are optimized for his success. That's not a knock on him: it's a compliment to Bill Belichick, who understands how to use his players efficiently. Woodhead almost never runs the ball against a defense that is intent on stopping the run. He takes the field almost entirely in pass-first formations, and exploits the fact that the defense is first and foremost preoccupied with stopping Brady. He's a good player, but if you asked him to carry the ball 315 teams, he wouldn't get anything even close to 1400 yards, and that's assuming that he could carry the ball 315 times (he couldn't).

The Jets' don't currently have an equivalent for how we use Woodhead, because they don't have nearly as much use as we do for a back like that. BJGE is a far better comparison to how the Jets use LT, and even that isn't really fair. You just can't overestimate how beneficial it is to a RB to play in an offense where Brady, Welker, and our TEs are all on the field. Brady makes every down a potential passing down, and the same can't really be said for Sanchez. Half the time that LT runs, everyone in the building knows he's about to run.

Guys like Woodhead require vision, adaptability, and creativity on the part of the coaching staff to effectively utilize. It's no surprise that the Jets couldn't get anything out of him, while the Pats have made him an integral part of the best offense in the NFL. OTOH, LT could step into pretty much any offense and produce. The one major negative on him at this point in his career is that he has a ton of mileage on him, so he wears down over the course of the year if you don't limit his carries (as we're seeing now. Shonn Greene's disappearance is doubly killing the Jets by breaking LT down). The same can be said for Woodhead, though, for different reasons. There isn't a team in the league that would even try to run Woodhead as many times as LT has this season.

 

[patsfan-1982]

Through 14 games Woodhead' has had only 80 carries and 39 catches in 48 targets. His production per touch is the best of any running back in the NFL this year. Tomlinson is past his prime and is having a much better year than last year, but nothing extraordinary.

LT's last good year was 2007, when he rushed 315-1474 with 15 TDs, and caught 60-475 for 3 TDs. If you project Woodhead's performance this year with the same number of touches, he'd be 315-1671 with 15 TDs, and 68-610 and 2 TD's receiving. Only LT's career year of 2006 was better than that. So Danny's is putting up elite numbers with the chances he's had.

So, yeah, I think it would be a big downgrade to have traded Danny for this year's LT.

And why should we consider Woodhead's first year playing to be his career year? Can't we give Woodhead a pass for his rookie year, given that he went on injured reserve in training camp? He spent his second year on the bench (after rushing for 158 yards in the final preseason game) -- just like Brady spent his first year on the bench, too.

And Woodhead is *not* just a 3rd down back. He's playing more and more on first down now, and his best runs have *not* been primarily 3rd down draws. He's a classic old-style scatback with surprising strength for his size. Run him from scrimmage 20 times a game behind a good zone blocking scheme and he'll easily average over 100 yards per game. He holds the NCAA all-division record for 200+ and 300+ yard games. He looks pretty durable.

Forget his credentials and apparent limitations. Danny has brought his game to the NFL, and it works here pretty much like it's worked everywhere. Maybe he'll fall to earth, but the evidence on the field is backed by the stats: Danny Woodhead is "breaking out" before our very eyes.

like i said i love Woodhead, but i put him in the same league with Kevin Faulk, one of the best RB's in patriots history who when he got over a 150 att in the running game never averaged more then 3.6 per att

Woodhead, is only haveing the season that he is haveing because Brady, is haveing a MVP season spreding the ball around and a lot of the time Woodhead is the open man comeing out of the back field IMO if he is playing any other roll then the one he is playing right now with the pats he dose not put up the numbers he is puting up