Curran: Fourth and one call proves Belichick is fearless

[Synovia]

The only statistic that I'm interested in is our conversion percentage on fourth down from Week 1 of 2009 all the way up until yesterday. If anybody wants to look that up, then you'll get my opinion on the matter.

FootballOutsiders.com:

From the beginning of the 2008 season to Sunday, teams have converted on fourth-and-1 68.1 percent of the time (347-of-511). Over that timeframe, the Patriots had been 21-of-26 (80.7 percent) on fourth-and-1, including 3-for-3 this season. The third conversion had been a BenJarvus Green-Ellis carry only a quarter earlier.


While the Patriots ran a pass play on that famous fourth-and-2 try a year ago, they've run the ball on 23 of those 26 fourth-and-1 attempts

 

[Fencer]

Is adding the percentages together the correct way to figure that?

It is if you interpret his 20% as a 40% conditional probability of holding on defense if the run fails. (And if that's what he meant, he did indeed phrase it correctly.)

 

[TruthSeeker]

This "HUGE HOLE" theory has been thoroughly debunked with photographic evidence.

I'd be happy to see the photographic evidence. It's thoroughly confirmed via the video evidence I saw.

 

[Kontradiction]

I'd be happy to see the photographic evidence. It's thoroughly confirmed via the video evidence I saw.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...685999-matt-light-ol-general.html#post2303523

I suggest you read Patspsycho's other posts in that thread. He really did a good job of studying that play. There was no huge hole in the middle. You were seeking the truth... you found it.

 

[TruthSeeker]

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...685999-matt-light-ol-general.html#post2303523

I suggest you read Patspsycho's other posts in that thread. He really did a good job of studying that play. There was no huge hole in the middle. You were seeking the truth... you found it.

Thanks, Kontradiction. I also went back and watched the replay from different angles.

I agree with you that the hole was not as large as I first thought. I disagree with you in that a cutback into the hole (which is where the play was designed to go) would have indeed gotten a first down.

 

[Kontradiction]

Thanks, Kontradiction. I also went back and watched the replay from different angles.

I agree with you that the hole was not as large as I first thought. I disagree with you in that a cutback into the hole (which is where the play was designed to go) would have indeed gotten a first down.

I didn't say that. The only way that I think we could have gotten a first down on that play is if he had ran to the right, and that's not where the play was designed to go.

 

[godef]

I would have preferred play action short pass like the TD play earlier in the game or else hand it off up the middle.

An off tackle run seems more likely to result in loss of yards IMO.

When was the last time we did a pooch? Brady at shotgun with Edelman or Woodhead next to him as a decoy, tight formation. One of the receivers runs down to touch the ball down at the 5.

 

[Kasmir]

I didn't say that. The only way that I think we could have gotten a first down on that play is if he had ran to the right, and that's not where the play was designed to go.

There was an easy first down if BJGE had stayed inside of Connolly. When he went outside he allowed Applewhite to scrape behind the CB and make the play. Applewhite was blocked outside by Crumpler. Light had Castillo stood up at the 50. Review the video yourself if you don't believe me.

 

[Mack Herron]

When was the last time we did a pooch? Brady at shotgun with Edelman or Woodhead next to him as a decoy, tight formation. One of the receivers runs down to touch the ball down at the 5.

Brady did that beautifully a couple years ago and it was call I was hoping for. Nothing I have seen since makes me think BB made the correct decision.