Most critical off-season of the BB Era

[Hok]

Why do you think Brady is healthy?

He was injured in the first game of '08, and he plays a position that doesn't put a ton of stress on the legs. There's no reason to believe he won't be fine by the start of the '09 season.

 

[RussFrancis]

Jerry Rice blew out his knee in week 1, many years ago. And amazingly, played again that very season. IN DECEMBER. And he's a wide receiver. Rice is obviously one of the greatest athletes of all time. But Brady is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Bottom line, if Rice can come back and play in 4 months, Brady can come back and play in a year. Zero doubt about it.

 

[swheeler23]

Umm, because he is.
We cant gie up 14mill of cap space and the picks we would get in a trade to have him hold a clipboard.

Why are all the "experts" on tv,saying Cassel is staying then?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I think the draft is very critical, but overall I don't expect much activity in FA this offseason. We have an extra 2nd this year and potential to get more picks in exchange for Cassel. Say we get 2 2nd's for him, that leaves us with 6 picks in the top 2 rounds over the next 2 drafts for a team that does not have a whole lot of needs. Plus the lower round picks. What are we going to do with all those picks if we go out and sign some marquis FA's? And how are we going to extend guys who IMO are must-signs like Wilfork, Mankins, Mayo, and Merriweather once their rookie contracts run out if we keep signing big price players?

We made our 'splashes' before '03 and '07 seasons so I would imagine it won't be until at least '11 before another truly big offseason, that is if it is needed.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Thatis a foolish statistic that mis informs. True, when the opponents did finally manage to drive to the red zone, they often scored a TD. But they got there only near league low number of times! In other words the Defense stopped them most of the time BEFORE they got to the red zone.

That's a Good Defense.

 

[Hok]

Why are all the "experts" on tv,saying Cassel is staying then?

If history has taught us anything, it's that people who talk about sports on TV tend to be morons.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Why is everyone thinking Cassel is going to be traded?

Because they are silly fools, and don't value depth at QB (!). They want desperately to play Jr. GM; signing all kinds of has-been NFL stars, wheeling & dealing, just like would be Dan Snyder's or Jerry Johnson's.

My bet is that Belichick is going for the Superbowl this year, expects his rebuilt Defense to mature, and wants to have depth at QB. He doesn't want to get caught short again. You just don't always have a legitimate Super bowl contender, never mind an odds-on Favorite. You have to be prepared and go for it, when you have the chance.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Because they are silly fools, and don't value depth at QB (!). They want desperately to play Jr. GM; signing all kinds of has-been NFL stars, wheeling & dealing, just like would be Dan Snyder's or Jerry Johnson's.

Is this sarcasm? Or you really think BB's preference/motive in franchising Cassel is to pay $15 M to a backup QB?

 

[mayoclinic]

I think in the salary cap era every year involves a significant effort to restructure the team, factoring in aging players, cap casualties, FA losses, etc. It's a bit academic to debate whether 2009-2010 is more critical than 2002-2003 or 2007.

If we do nothing other than resign some of our mid-range pieces (Sanders, Gaffney, Woods, etc.) then we will still be a contender in 2009. But it is certainly true that we have a lot of contracts up in 2009 and even more in 2010, combined with some key players having aged. How we restructure the team will probably be critical in setting us up for 2010-2014, though I imagine we will still have problems every year.

Looking past the next 2 years, it seems to me that almost every area of the team could be considered an area of concern:

QB - we have $29M tied up in 2 players, one of whom is not 100% certain of coming back from injury (even though I think it's highly likely)

RB - running back by committee has been OK, but Faulk is aging, Maroney hasn't proven himself, and Maroney and Morris are both up after 2009-2010

WR - Welker is solid for the foreseable future; Moss is great but aging and his contract is up in 2010; the rest is totally up in the air

TE - Watson and Thomas haven't overwhelmed, and both are up after 2009

OL - Light is aging, Neal is aging and injury prone; Kaczur and Mankins are up after 2009; Koppen has trouble with big NTs

DL - Wilfork, Seymour and Green are up after 2009 and Wright is a FA this year

LB - 2 years from now Bruschi and Vrabel will both be gone and Thomas will be 33

DB - Only Meriweather is currently signed at S, Harrison will be gone, Hobbs' contract is up after 2009, and Wheatley/Wilhite are not a sure thing

So while we can patch a few holes and compete for the short term, there is clearly a lot of rebuilding to be done for the long term. I'm sure Belichick is way ahead of all of us in thinking about these issues.

 

[Ring 6]

Why are all the "experts" on tv,saying Cassel is staying then?

Depends what you call an expert. Who has said that that is an expert on cap management, running a franchise, and BBs thought process? Mike Greenburg?

 

[Ring 6]

Because they are silly fools, and don't value depth at QB (!). They want desperately to play Jr. GM; signing all kinds of has-been NFL stars, wheeling & dealing, just like would be Dan Snyder's or Jerry Johnson's.

My bet is that Belichick is going for the Superbowl this year, expects his rebuilt Defense to mature, and wants to have depth at QB. He doesn't want to get caught short again. You just don't always have a legitimate Super bowl contender, never mind an odds-on Favorite. You have to be prepared and go for it, when you have the chance.

So, your conclusion is anyone who would rather have a 1st round pick and 14mill of cap room than a backup QB with 1 year experience is a silly fool? And you know that anyone who thinks overspending for an inconseuential player must think like someone who failed, or you made up (who is Jerry Johnson?). Its an idiotic post. Its like saying anyone who disagrees with whatever I say wants to start the Manson Family 2.0 and therefore must be wrong. I know that I want the 14mill spent the way BB always spends it, and I know that he will, and I know that he needs it to keep this team on top.
If Cassel were under contract for backup money your reasoning would be correct.
But you simply cannot devote 10% of your cap to the back up and 20% to the QB position and expect to be competitive.

I can tell you really like Cassel but you are doing the exact same thing Snyder did, overpaying because you just really like the guy.

 

[Ring 6]

Because they are silly fools, and don't value depth at QB (!). They want desperately to play Jr. GM; signing all kinds of has-been NFL stars, wheeling & dealing, just like would be Dan Snyder's or Jerry Johnson's.

My bet is that Belichick is going for the Superbowl this year, expects his rebuilt Defense to mature, and wants to have depth at QB. He doesn't want to get caught short again. You just don't always have a legitimate Super bowl contender, never mind an odds-on Favorite. You have to be prepared and go for it, when you have the chance.

Oh, and BB 'goes for the SB' EVERY year. Perhaps that misunderstanding creates your uncomventional opinion.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that Belichick is way ahead of us in dealing with these issues. However, $14.6M is a lot of cap money. We can have a few restructures to sign the midrange pieces you mention and still be able to pay the rookies, but I think that it's close.

I think in the salary cap era every year involves a significant effort to restructure the team, factoring in aging players, cap casualties, FA losses, etc. It's a bit academic to debate whether 2009-2010 is more critical than 2002-2003 or 2007.

If we do nothing other than resign some of our mid-range pieces (Sanders, Gaffney, Woods, etc.) then we will still be a contender in 2009. But it is certainly true that we have a lot of contracts up in 2009 and even more in 2010, combined with some key players having aged. How we restructure the team will probably be critical in setting us up for 2010-2014, though I imagine we will still have problems every year.

Looking past the next 2 years, it seems to me that almost every area of the team could be considered an area of concern:

QB - we have $29M tied up in 2 players, one of whom is not 100% certain of coming back from injury (even though I think it's highly likely)

RB - running back by committee has been OK, but Faulk is aging, Maroney hasn't proven himself, and Maroney and Morris are both up after 2009-2010

WR - Welker is solid for the foreseable future; Moss is great but aging and his contract is up in 2010; the rest is totally up in the air

TE - Watson and Thomas haven't overwhelmed, and both are up after 2009

OL - Light is aging, Neal is aging and injury prone; Kaczur and Mankins are up after 2009; Koppen has trouble with big NTs

DL - Wilfork, Seymour and Green are up after 2009 and Wright is a FA this year

LB - 2 years from now Bruschi and Vrabel will both be gone and Thomas will be 33

DB - Only Meriweather is currently signed at S, Harrison will be gone, Hobbs' contract is up after 2009, and Wheatley/Wilhite are not a sure thing

So while we can patch a few holes and compete for the short term, there is clearly a lot of rebuilding to be done for the long term. I'm sure Belichick is way ahead of all of us in thinking about these issues.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I think the draft is very critical, but overall I don't expect much activity in FA this offseason. We have an extra 2nd this year and potential to get more picks in exchange for Cassel. Say we get 2 2nd's for him, that leaves us with 6 picks in the top 2 rounds over the next 2 drafts for a team that does not have a whole lot of needs. Plus the lower round picks. What are we going to do with all those picks if we go out and sign some marquis FA's? And how are we going to extend guys who IMO are must-signs like Wilfork, Mankins, Mayo, and Merriweather once their rookie contracts run out if we keep signing big price players?

We made our 'splashes' before '03 and '07 seasons so I would imagine it won't be until at least '11 before another truly big offseason, that is if it is needed.

I disagree with this premise:

-- Over the course of the 2008 season NE brought in and retained 16 rookies between the roster, IR, and the Practice Squad - with the majority of them undrafted free agents and late round lads.
-- In addition to these kids, NE has a number of older reserve, and starting, players who could be upgraded, not to mention Free Agent slots to fill.
---- OL: Hochstein's slot, Britt, Yates can all be improved on. O'Callaghan is cheap and I'd like to see him get another season, but he's the current #4 OT.
---- DL: Wright's slot is open, Adam's Practice Squad slot can handle some competition. Seymour, Wilfork, and Green are all UFA in 2010, Smith an RFA - and it takes a season or more to develop a good DL in the NE 3-4.
---- TE: DeVree and Thomas can use some competition.
---- LB: Mayo, Vrabel, and Thomas are safe, Crable most likely, the rest of them need the competition.
---- RB: Faulk has been playing like a man possessed, and with less mileage than a feature back he may go for awhile, but it doesn't hurt to look for his replacement for the Practice Squad. Jorden is likely gone, Morris is breaking down, Green-Ellis needs competition.
---- CB: According to some folks here, this position hasn't got one laddy worth the inexpensive gray matter they use, but optimist that I am, it's not so bad. Lewis Sanders would be nice to have back, but NE could find a nice tweener in the draft too. There will be room on the Practice Squad for a project.
---- WR: Gaffney is UFA. Moss isn't getting any younger and there does appear to be a 3 year timeline for WRs to develop fully. The Special Teams pool here is part of BB's core group, but they could be upgraded too.
---- S: With one starter and one CB tweener there's room for 3 or more on roster or the Practice Squad.
---- QB: There should be at least one camp fodder kid to ease Tommy's throwing arm and push Gutierrez.
---- P: Malone has been getting extended work on the Practice Squad, but he needs the competition and Hanson hasn't been retained yet - this is a good draft for Punters.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Is this sarcasm? Or you really think BB's preference/motive in franchising Cassel is to pay $15 M to a backup QB?

Patsylicious,

After the flippant reply, the serious answer is that I believe Belichick is going after a Super Bowl Lombardi Trophy this season. He believes that he has already rebuilt his Defense.Belichcik has said many times that the biggest improvment comes between the rookie and second season. The Defense will blossom as the sophomores play. He wants to have at least ONE Franchise QB under center, no matter what.

So he is NOT paying $15 million for a backup QB; he is insuring he HAS a STARTING FRANCHISE-LEVEL QB. He has the luxury to do so for this season at least, and I think he is doing it. What's more, I think Cassel is buying into the whole idea. He would MUCH RATHER end up as th QB of the Patriots, a perrenial contender; than the QB of the Lions, a perrenial loser.

MC is staying true to form. He stayed at USC, so he had a chance to be a Heisman winner, a collegiate QB of the #1, National Champion team. Matt didn't go, or later move to, a rinky-dink team merely to play. He is smart enough to know it takes more than just your own talent to win a Lombardi, and a MVP, and earn a chit toward the HOF. You have to be on a great team, top to bottom. He is.

There are all the earnest people who quote each other and the conventional wisdom that BB would NEVER do so. But on careful analysis it is quite affordable, this season, without taking any extraordinary measures. For example of an extraordinary measure, suppose the Pats draft a LB high; and Tedy reads the handwriting onthe wall, and retires. The CAP room jumps $1-$2 million. But you don't even need that to happen.

If there is anything we know of BB's methods, he wants the best depth of any team in the league and will beat your brains out in December, when you play scrubs for injured players, and he plays qualified NFL starters everywhere. (That includes QB, by the way.)

Some of the jr. GMs will worry about depth for a Long Snapper, but breeze over the concept of depth at the most important position of all, QB. (JP Loserman Wrecks Grossman?!?) Elsewhere I carefully outlined how the CAP economics fits this season. The others seem to think he couldn't trade Cassel in 2010.

Horse Feathers.

BB frequently banks draft picks, choosing to store them for a year. Cassel's value won't evaporate. The very fact that the greatest Coach in the league, just paid him $14 million to keep him, even if he didn't play, insures that.

 

[BionicPatriot]

I agree whole heartedly we'll see a much different defense. I think we'll have FA additions, and I think along with trading Cassel, we'll probably get an extra day one pick we'll use to build up the OL.

This will certainly be a key offseason in the future of the team. I do think BB has made progress in building a defense, but he still has work to do. Folks, Brady is turning 32 very soon. We're not building for 2014, we're making our 3-4 year run now. I think we'll be stocking up for it. It would be insane to add nothing to this flawed defense and waste another season.

 

[pats63]

somethings tells there is a deal almost made for MC....KC 2nd this year and maybe 1st or more likely a 2nd....

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I disagree with this premise:

-- Over the course of the 2008 season NE brought in and retained 16 rookies between the roster, IR, and the Practice Squad - with the majority of them undrafted free agents and late round lads.
-- In addition to these kids, NE has a number of older reserve, and starting, players who could be upgraded, not to mention Free Agent slots to fill.

I should have been more clear in my post, by activity I was referring specifically to going after the marquis FA's i.e. making a splash like in '03 and '07 offseasons. I'm sure there will be plenty moves made to address depth at certain positions but with more than half a dozen day 1 picks in the next 2 drafts I would imagine the more apparent needs (SS, OLB, CB) can be addressed via draft. I just don't see us as big players in the bidding wars for guys like Suggs, Ray, Asomugha,etc assuming they're not tagged.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I should have been more clear in my post, by activity I was referring specifically to going after the marquis FA's i.e. making a splash like in '03 and '07 offseasons. I'm sure there will be plenty moves made to address depth at certain positions but with more than half a dozen day 1 picks in the next 2 drafts I would imagine the more apparent needs (SS, OLB, CB) can be addressed via draft. I just don't see us as big players in the bidding wars for guys like Suggs, Ray, Asomugha,etc assuming they're not tagged.

Then we do agree! :eat3:

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Patsylicious,

After the flippant reply, the serious answer is that I believe Belichick is going after a Super Bowl Lombardi Trophy this season. He believes that he has already rebuilt his Defense.Belichcik has said many times that the biggest improvment comes between the rookie and second season. The Defense will blossom as the sophomores play. He wants to have at least ONE Franchise QB under center, no matter what.

So he is NOT paying $15 million for a backup QB; he is insuring he HAS a STARTING FRANCHISE-LEVEL QB. He has the luxury to do so for this season at least, and I think he is doing it. What's more, I think Cassel is buying into the whole idea. He would MUCH RATHER end up as th QB of the Patriots, a perrenial contender; than the QB of the Lions, a perrenial loser.

MC is staying true to form. He stayed at USC, so he had a chance to be a Heisman winner, a collegiate QB of the #1, National Champion team. Matt didn't go, or later move to, a rinky-dink team merely to play. He is smart enough to know it takes more than just your own talent to win a Lombardi, and a MVP, and earn a chit toward the HOF. You have to be on a great team, top to bottom. He is.

There are all the earnest people who quote each other and the conventional wisdom that BB would NEVER do so. But on careful analysis it is quite affordable, this season, without taking any extraordinary measures. For example of an extraordinary measure, suppose the Pats draft a LB high; and Tedy reads the handwriting onthe wall, and retires. The CAP room jumps $1-$2 million. But you don't even need that to happen.

If there is anything we know of BB's methods, he wants the best depth of any team in the league and will beat your brains out in December, when you play scrubs for injured players, and he plays qualified NFL starters everywhere. (That includes QB, by the way.)

Some of the jr. GMs will worry about depth for a Long Snapper, but breeze over the concept of depth at the most important position of all, QB. (JP Loserman Wrecks Grossman?!?) Elsewhere I carefully outlined how the CAP economics fits this season. The others seem to think he couldn't trade Cassel in 2010.

Horse Feathers.

BB frequently banks draft picks, choosing to store them for a year. Cassel's value won't evaporate. The very fact that the greatest Coach in the league, just paid him $14 million to keep him, even if he didn't play, insures that.

Thanks for the 7 paragraph response. But I don't think anybody here needs to be told that BB is aiming for a SB run or that MC is a team player. Yeah sure you could be right about BB wanting to keep Cassel around though I highly disagree, but to say people are fools for thinking he'll be trading Cassel is pretty ridiculous. People thought our depth at QB was bad last year with an unproven Cassel and O'connell they couldn't have been more wrong. How do we know BB isn't fine with having O'connell and Gutz along with a veteran pickup?