Oh how things have changed over the last week. Bodden being cut, Dowling to IR, the loss to Pittsburgh and the ensuing panic, it seems our draft priorities have changed. As I posted in another thread, I believe a lot of the defensive issues are scheme related, brought about by a lack of confidence in the secondary. That’s up to BB to fix and I don’t think changing personnel will automatically fix that. However, this team does have some obvious deficiencies, especially on defence that changes in personnel, especially through the draft can address.
I don’t think we need to panic though, because with Wilfork, Mayo and hopefully McCourty and Chung, we have the cornerstones to build the defence around at every level. What I think we need is a combination of role players to give the team greater depth and versatility, and playmakers to make the team more explosive both offensively and defensively. Whether we play a base 3-4 or 4-3 I don’t think it really matters too much. I think we will play a hybrid defence that requires players to fit both.
Trades
1st for 2nd + 3rd + 6th
2nd for 3rd + 3rd
3rd for 4th + 4th
Hoyer for 5th + 2013 2nd
(One thing to keep in mind when looking at Hoyer’s trade value is all of the top QB prospects in the 2012 draft are underclassman. While Luck will almost certainly declare and be the #1 pick, I think there is a decent chance we could see Barkley and Landry Jones stay in school and battle for the top spot in 2013. If this happens Hoyer’s trade value would increase greatly.)
Picks
1. OLB- Courtney Upshaw- Alabama
Upshaw is elite against the run, a solid pass rusher, plays in the SEC under Saban and has experience playing 3-4 OLB. I don’t think you could ask for any more from a prospect. He doesn’t have the ideal measurables but I don’t really care. I think he is the best fit for this system out of any of the potential OLB’s in recent years. If he is available even close to the Saints pick I would make a move up to get him. Unfortunately I think he could easily go top 15 and be well out of reach. If that is the case then I would look to move down and go after Whitney Mercilus from Illinois, Brandon Jenkins from Florida State or Vinny Curry from Marshall.
2a. FS- TJ McDonald- USC
This is my binkie for the 2012 draft. McDonald would instantly come in and give the Pats secondary a presence which they are desperately lacking. He would add size and athleticism at the back, with the ability to play the deep centre fielder role or down in the box. I think matched with Chung, this could be one of the elite safety tandems in the NFL. McDonald has the size to match up well against TE’s, the athleticism to cover the slot and the attitude to make WR’s think twice about going over the middle. He has been called for quite a few fouls this year but I don’t think he is a dirty player, he just plays the game hard and aggressive. I truly think that TJ McDonald is the kind of playmaker this defence needs at the back. I currently have him with a mid-1st round grade, but it seems no one else does, so I think he will be a steal at the top of the 2nd.
2b. DE/OLB- Devin Taylor- South Carolina
The Pats really need to find a way to pressure the QB rushing only 4 guys and this is the spot where I would look for that playmaker at OLB after grabbing a 3 down OLB in round 1. Ideally I would like to take Vinny Curry here, but I don’t think he lasts this long, so I take a chance on a guy with huge upside. Devin Taylor isn’t physically ready to be a star in the NFL, but he certainly has the potential. Whether it’s a 3-4 or 4-3 front, I think Taylor could develop into a disruptor against the pass and the run.
3a. WR- Juron Criner- Arizona
This pick isn’t a reaction to the Steelers game; I’ve had WR as a need and a high pick in each of my mock drafts since the start of 2010. I was hoping that Ocho Cinco would be that outside threat that we need, but its painfully obvious he isn’t the answer. Originally I had Dwight Jones from UNC as this pick, but I doubt he is a guy BB goes after. A guy that I think is much more likely is Juron Criner out of Arizona, who I think would fit really well into this offensive scheme. He’s got great size, athleticism and is great after the catch. He is a very good deep threat and has the size and physicality to go and get the ball down the field. The thing I like most about Criner is he does everything fast, even though most draft “experts” believe he has below average speed for the position. I think he can be the physical, big play WR on the outside that the Pats need. If he was more consistent I think he would be a 1st rounder.
3b. CB- Donnie Fletcher- BC
With Leigh Bodden being cut and durability issues surrounding Ras-I Dowling, CB is obviously a need. Although there are some talented players available at the top of the draft, I don’t think it would be smart investing even more premium picks into that position. Donnie Fletcher is a guy out of BC that I really like as a fit for the current defensive scheme because he plays in a similar one at BC. Fletcher is a talented off man/soft zone corner that does a good job of keeping the ball in front of him and not allowing big plays. Like the Pats though, BC plays extremely conservative coverage, so I think that hurts his stock for other teams. On the Pats however I think he shows the ability to do a lot of the things they will ask of him. With his size, length and athleticism, I also think he has the potential to be a decent press man corner, but he just hasn’t got the experience there at the moment. He won’t be a superstar but I think he is the kind depth and role player that could really help this team.
3c. S/LB- Kenny Tate- Maryland
I don’t think Kenny Tate has the athleticism to be a full time safety or the size to be an every down LB. What I do think Tate could excel in is being a situational player and special teamer that could help mask some of the issue the Pats defence has. One of the biggest issues this season, especially on 3rd down has been the coverage of the LB’ers. This is where I think Tate could be most effective. Bulk him up a bit to about 235lbs and play him as a coverage LB and specialist nickel defender. He won’t be a starter or a superstar, but I think he could be a key player in fixing the defensive issues on 3rd down.
