The percentage is much higher on second round picks, obviously. And that's without accounting for the fact that this draft is loaded with historic talent due to the CBA uncertainty and players wanting to get in ahead of any potential cap.
Bottom line, any team that wants to win in the NFL needs its draft picks to perform big and perform early on their rookie contracts. If you don't think the Pats can make that happen, then you're implicitly stating that the Pats can't build a winning team in the NFL. End of story.
If there's been an exception to this in recent history, it's the '07 Pats, who still had Wilfork, Meriweather, Mankins, Maroney, Gay, Samuel, Wilson, Gostkowski, Watson, Kaczur, Sanders, and Hobbs all make major contributions under rookie deals/franchise tag
I respect your opinion but beg to differ Cousin.
Two items I will mention could change your mind if you are indeed, open minded. The first example is this year's Saints. No explanation needed. Trades and FAs made them win the SB. The 07 Patriots had 63 Players go through their roster during the season. 27 of them were FAs, Trades or street pick ups. That is 42% of the Team. Those above you listed contributed for sure, but not to surpass the quality in the FA class.
Secondly. Think 18%. 18% of all NFL Teams in general have a success rate of 18% that a Drafted player will help....within a three year period of time. The bar set on that is above average contributor, such as full time starter, Pro Bowl caliber future or long time tendered Team roster fixture (kicker, LS etc.).
The key there is three years.
The second issue I have with "Draft Dreaming" besides not knowing if a 21 year old kid will adapt to the NFL and we have a list here of failed Pats amongst some good ones like Brady, Mayo, Wilfork etc., is the fact that if we have 13 holes which I can see and more
if the FO did not do it's job and Bodden walks and we only have 8 Draft choices to fill all those holes. At 18% of 8, realistically that is 1.44 players but say two of the eight are successful. If we do better than average, perhaps three top tier players from this Draft to be ready in three years, and some exceptional cases, less time.
If you pick up 6 NFL ready FAs and only three work out, it certainly over weighs the Draft process if you want to win in 2010. 50% beats 18% on a three year time table.
I don't like Brandon Marshall as a human being because he feels like everyone owes him because he is a star. Let's be realistic and say that is the general attitude of most young professional athletes. He just happens to go over the edge more often. At some point he grows up.
COMPARISON: For all you older Patriot fans, think Irving Fryar. He was really not much different than Marshall was he? He finally grew up some (mostly after the Pats) and made some more Pro Bowls and played 17 seasons!
Stats from Wiki:He played a total of 255 games in his career and made the Pro Bowl five times (1985, 1993, 1994, 1996 and 1997).
Fryar retired from the NFL in 2001 after completing 17 NFL seasons. During that time, he caught 851 passes for 12,785 yards and 84 touchdowns, along with one rushing and three punt return touchdowns. He also gained 242 rushing yards, 2,055 yards returning punts, 505 yards on kickoff returns, and 7 fumble return yards, giving him 15,594 all-purpose yards.
NFL Records: * Touchdown receptions from 19 different passers
* Consecutive seasons with 10+ receptions - 17 (1984–2000)
* Consecutive seasons with 150+ receiving yards - 17 (1984–2000)
* Consecutive seasons with 2+ touchdown receptions - 16 (1985–2000)
* Consecutive seasons with 2+ touchdowns - 16 (1985–2000) - tied with Marcus Allen
* 1st player to record a touchdown reception in 17 consecutive seasons (1984–2000) - (broken by Jerry Rice who ended up with 20 consecutive seasons with a TD reception)
* Oldest player to score 4 touchdowns (all receptions) in a single game (10/20/1996) - 34 years, 22 days
The late Will McDonough wrote this in 1991-
"Irving is not hot. Got that? Not hot. Which means Fryar is not cookin'. And no one is lookin' to grant his wish.
Irving Fryar has made it clear he wants out of here, but the problem is, there is no there.
From what we understand from other members of the NFL, the Patriots have been shopping him around, but the word is buyers are coming up with empty pockets.
Fryar, who was the top pick in the draft seven years back and whom some consider the Patriots' best player, isn't getting any respect in the trading market."
A lot of his success was after the Patriots (think Broncos). Read this link and tell me you would not reconsider Brandon Marshall
IRVING FRYAR, A FORMER HELL-RAISER, HAS FOUND HEAVEN AS A - 06.05.95 - SI Vault
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