Fencer
Pro Bowl Player
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- Oct 2, 2006
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Naively, that adds up to expected number of WRs of 6.8, if I did the arithmetic correctly.
This is not crazy, because it's not crazy to keep 5 WRs + Slater + Edelman.
This is not crazy, because it's not crazy to keep 5 WRs + Slater + Edelman.
I think we'll have six receivers on the roster. Possibly seven, if BB decides the 7th receiver is more useful to the team in the long run than a 3rd TE or 4th OG.
Handicapping the field...
Brandon Lloyd - 100%. Is a lock. Good contract terms, he and McDaniels are mutually enamoured, special physical tools.
Matthew Slater - 100%. Is a lock, because he is the special teams' captain. He is nominally a WR, but sees at least as much time as an emergency S... and probably will in 2012 again, too.
Jabar Gaffney - 80% will make the squad. BB would not have brought him in on top of all the other top receivers on the roster, without a sense of conviction. Gaffney is proven in the Pats scheme and has a few more years to run.
Julian Edelman - 80%. What makes Edelman secure is the fact that he's a three way player for Belichick who loves three way players. Only two ways I see Edelman not making the team: (1) Ebert beats Edelman for the PR, KR job straight up, or (2) some team trades for him. KC or Baltimore, perhaps.
Wes Welker - 80%, and dropping. The heart and soul of the offense. Everyone says that Brady "carries" the team, but it's on Welker's back. Here's why Welker is not a lock: he's got one big contract left in his career. If the Pats can't get him to terms they feel are fair value, with all the depth available to us, (and assuming Wes signs the tender) I think BB would listen to an offer from a team like Indy or Jacksonville for an early 1st round pick. For that matter, if the Bills or Fins offer a 1st and 3rd, or something like that, I think Welker could even get dealt within the Division! Please let it not happen that way. Worst case scenario for us would be for Welker to play this year under a Franchise designation, and then walk next year as a Free Agent. Note: if BB traded Bledsoe, Vrabel and Seymour at the cusp of their careers, Welker certainly isn't immune.
Deon Branch - 70%. Deon projects to be the third or fourth WR option. He has Brady's trust like no one else on the roster. But his effectiveness has certainly dropped and he doesn't play on special teams. Of the remaining WRs, the last spot is his to lose. But if Stallworth, Gonzo or Ocho beat him out in TC, he will be cut and probably latch on to some team to ride out the last few years of his career.
Donte Stallworth - 50%. Has to beat Branch, Gonzo and Ocho to make the roster. Or make such a good showing that BB decides not to carry a 3rd TE or not to carry a FB. He has been productive under McDaniels in the past, which is a point in his favor. At the end of his career.
Chad Ochocinco - 50%. Has to beat Branch, Gonzo and Stallworth for the #4 WR spot. After failing to absorb the playbook last year, will this offseason make the difference. Already reworked the terms of his contract to stay with the team, which will make BB more reluctant to cut him. At the end of his career.
Jeremy Ebert - 40%. To make the roster, he either has to beat Edelman for the KR or PR job, or he has to come close to matching Stallworth, Ochocinco and Gonzalez in training camp. He only needs to come close because as a rookie his upside is higher and his payroll is very attractive. If he flashes anything special in the preseason, BB may stash him as the 7th receiver, solely out of concern that he would not clear waivers. Otherwise, he's likely to end on the PS.
Anthony Gonzalez - 30%. A lot to prove. (1) is he healthy? (2) can he absorb the system faster than Branch, Stallworth or Ochocinco, who all have a head start? (3) can he beat out a lot of veterans based on pure merit? The only thing going for him is that he's younger than the rest. If he can match Branch, Ocho and Stallworth, and beat Ebert, he may get the nod just based on the fact that he has more football ahead of him.
Britt Davis - 0%. No chance. I'm sure BB offered to release him, same as he did with Underwood. But Britt probably sees more upside in being in camp with all these veterans and working to earn the trust of the coaching staff to find a spot on the practice squad.