Would you mortgage the future to win now with Brady?

[Rob0729]

Brady's new Boston digs...

Brady's California "house"...

poor Brady.....poor poor poor Tommie

Apparently, Brady is a moat guy.

 

[Galeb]

Not disputing your thinking, but I feel as though it's sometimes overlooked that Brady came out pretty good in that deal as well. It was a win-win for both sides.

I don't believe that any of these newer 100+ million dollar deals that we've been seeing have as much as the 55 million or so in guaranteed money that Tom will receive.

The only exception would be Drew Brees' latest contract from a couple of yrs ago, and even that was right around the same ballpark at about 60 million guaranteed. As they say, "it's all about the guaranteed money," and Brady pretty much guaranteed himself a very nice payday. In the future, we may see moves like this even more, particularly with players who are aging like Tom Brady. It guarantees him the peace of mind that he can see all of that guaranteed money, without worrying about dropoff and injury.

He could have gotten almost as much money guaranteed as he did in this deal with a massive contract, regardless of how Kraft explained it. The only difference is, Brady would likely play longer than a QB who dropped off a cliff and received all that guaranteed money. He's also in a unique situation where his wife is the bread winner in his family.

 

[Joker]

heh...yeah, Rob it's sorta staggering... Brady gave back money!!! He took less for the team!!!...(and he's got a moat....)...what is this called?...incongruous?

 

[PatsDeb]

Yes, because once Brady goes, all bets are off. We should pull out all the stops to get there and win it, one more time, because who knows when we are ever going to get there again? We have tried the "get a good enough team and Brady and BB will do the rest" routine for about 7 years now and it hasn't worked. We always fall just short. They should pay top dollar for studs on both sides of the ball for the next year or two and after that, who cares? We will have been to the mountain one more time and we can have a few down years after that. I am tired of falling just short.

Whew, there I said it. What I really feel.

 

[Galeb]

Yes, because once Brady goes, all bets are off. We should pull out all the stops to get there and win it, one more time, because who knows when we are ever going to get there again? We have tried the "get a good enough team and Brady and BB will do the rest" routine for about 7 years now and it hasn't worked. We always fall just short. They should pay top dollar for studs on both sides of the ball for the next year or two and after that, who cares? We will have been to the mountain one more time and we can have a few down years after that. I am tired of falling just short.

Whew, there I said it. What I really feel.

The Pats always spend close enough to the cap that they don't exceed what will carry over to next years cap. That means that they spend as much as every other team. "All in now" means that you structure contracts in a way that you get lots of talent now and are in salary cap hell in the future.

Winning it all usually takes health and luck. If you're good enough to be a contender every year, you'll be a contender when health and luck collide.

 

[PatsDeb]

The Pats always spend close enough to the cap that they don't exceed what will carry over to next years cap. That means that they spend as much as every other team. "All in now" means that you structure contracts in a way that you get lots of talent now and are in salary cap hell in the future.

Winning it all usually takes health and luck. If you're good enough to be a contender every year, you'll be a contender when health and luck collide.

I would have agreed with you about 5 years ago....

 

[Kontradiction]

Yes, because once Brady goes, all bets are off. We should pull out all the stops to get there and win it, one more time, because who knows when we are ever going to get there again? We have tried the "get a good enough team and Brady and BB will do the rest" routine for about 7 years now and it hasn't worked. We always fall just short. They should pay top dollar for studs on both sides of the ball for the next year or two and after that, who cares? We will have been to the mountain one more time and we can have a few down years after that. I am tired of falling just short.

Whew, there I said it. What I really feel.

We'll have "just a few down years" if the next coaching staff isn't inept. If they are, you're talking a decade plus.

 

[Nunchucks]

Yeah, mortgage the future to bring in a key player or two who then promptly gets hurt and is out for the season. No thank you! oh and then the future is mortgaged.

Build quality depth and as much through the draft as possible. Consistently compete for a championship.

And no, I do not want to sit through a single losing season, because NFL games are too precious to waste with crap for a product. I pay for my season and I want a quality product on the field.

 

[p8ryts]

Let’s dabble in a little heresy here.
Many if not most Pats fans are agonizing over getting weapons for Tom Brady before his window closes. We need to quit worrying about Tom Brady’s window and start thinking long term about the continued success of the Patriots.
Tom Brady is and may always be the best Patriots QB ever. However he has peaked. Since his beating in the 07 SB and his 08 injury, he has been a little less heroic.
The team is young and capable. Now is the time to think of the future of the team. Tom’s value is only going to go down from this point.
Houston has the number 1 pick and Bill O’Brien is the coach. He might believe his team is good enough to win now with Tom Brady. So I’m saying trade Tom Brady to Houston if:
They give us their #1 and #2 this year and #1 next year.
Draft a QB high and let him compete with Ryan Mallett. Nobody knows if Mallett can do the job but no one knows if he can’t either. There is a possibility he might assert himself and be the next team QB. The first round pick could be used for a QB, I’m predisposed to Terry Bridgewater. I think he can come in and play.
The reason I focus on this year is that Houston won’t likely have the number 1 pick next year, Tom’s value will have decreased either marginally or substantially.
I’ve thought this way since last fall when I became convinced Bridgewater was the next coming.
With this approach and a young defense we might be good for another 10 years

 

[patsinthesnow]

At this point, if you're mortgaging the future, then you're hurting future Brady-led teams. There's no reason to expect fewer than four more years from Brady. This is a discussion that would have some actual value in 2017, which (barring freak injury) I'd say is when the "Brady's last season" window opens.

I just want to respond to this. This is all based on faith rather than evidence. We have decades of data to conclude that:

RBs breakdown around age 30
WRs breakdown around age 33-35
QBs breakdown around age 37-39

Sure are there extreme outliers? Yes. Rice was a great WR at age 40, Favre This is one of the more divided polls on here in awhile. No would of won in a landslide 3 years ago.played like a top 3 QB at age 40, and Tony Gonzalez was a top 5 TE at age 37.

We can't count on Brady playing like Brady in 2016 or 2017.

 

[JPsPats]

I think our D will be dominant by the time Brady retires. Hopefully dominant enough to win another with him. It's kinda shaping up like when Brady took over he had a solid D and won 3 rings. When (I hate saying this) our new Qb takes over he will have a solid D. There will never be another Brady so it wi be interesting to see what happens. And we don't know what BBs plans are either in terms of how long he wants to coach.... Hopefully forever

 

[pazrul72]

I keep seeing people ask what does mortgaing the future mean. It means borrowing money from later years to pay for athletes this year. I'll show you what I mean with a truely crazy senerio which would make the patriots the absolute best team for 2014 and 2015 but then in 2016 and 2017 they would barely be able to afford 53 Jags and would be tthe worst team in the league.

Right now the pats have about 8 million in cap space, assuming an all in win now mentality I cut gregory 2 mil, cut wilfork 8 mil, cut soap 3.5 million, restructure mankins saving about 4 mil, Extend McCourty and Ghost saving about 2 mil. All of that leaves 27.5 million in cap space.

This is where it gets interesting. Assume for the sake of arguement that all of these FA are willing to siign these deals because of the Signing bonus and the knowledge that in 2 years they will be back on the FA market much richer. The way this works is you sign long term deals with big signing bonuses yet in year one and two the cap hit is small because the numbers are spread out over the entire length of the deal. Say I want to sign a FA to a 5 year 50 million deal with a 15 million SB and 20 in guarantees all in the first two years. That's 3 million each year on the cap plus year one salary can be 1 million, year 2 salary 3 million for a cap hit of year one 4 mil and year two 6 million.

So with my 27.5 million I'm going to sign
Decker 5 for 50 15 SB
Pitta 5 for 40 10 SB
Mack 5 for 45 12 SB
Houston 4 for 35 8 SB
Melton 4 for 35 8 SB
Talib 4 for 40 10 SB
Ward 6 for 50 12 SB

You can keep all of those players plus most of the current team for two years. The real problem with this approuch? In 2016 you have to cut all of them plus Brady, Gronk, and Mayo and have like 75 million in Dead Money as all of those SB are still on the cap and come due. That's what people mean when they say are you willing to mortage the future to win now and my personal response is no. I'll take careful management and be competitive ever year.

 

[chasa]

I keep seeing people ask what does mortgaing the future mean. It means borrowing money from later years to pay for athletes this year. I'll show you what I mean with a truely crazy senerio which would make the patriots the absolute best team for 2014 and 2015 but then in 2016 and 2017 they would barely be able to afford 53 Jags and would be tthe worst team in the league.

Right now the pats have about 8 million in cap space, assuming an all in win now mentality I cut gregory 2 mil, cut wilfork 8 mil, cut soap 3.5 million, restructure mankins saving about 4 mil, Extend McCourty and Ghost saving about 2 mil. All of that leaves 27.5 million in cap space.

This is where it gets interesting. Assume for the sake of arguement that all of these FA are willing to siign these deals because of the Signing bonus and the knowledge that in 2 years they will be back on the FA market much richer. The way this works is you sign long term deals with big signing bonuses yet in year one and two the cap hit is small because the numbers are spread out over the entire length of the deal. Say I want to sign a FA to a 5 year 50 million deal with a 15 million SB and 20 in guarantees all in the first two years. That's 3 million each year on the cap plus year one salary can be 1 million, year 2 salary 3 million for a cap hit of year one 4 mil and year two 6 million.

So with my 27.5 million I'm going to sign
Decker 5 for 50 15 SB
Pitta 5 for 40 10 SB
Mack 5 for 45 12 SB
Houston 4 for 35 8 SB
Melton 4 for 35 8 SB
Talib 4 for 40 10 SB
Ward 6 for 50 12 SB

You can keep all of those players plus most of the current team for two years. The real problem with this approuch? In 2016 you have to cut all of them plus Brady, Gronk, and Mayo and have like 75 million in Dead Money as all of those SB are still on the cap and come due. That's what people mean when they say are you willing to mortage the future to win now and my personal response is no. I'll take careful management and be competitive ever year.

none of that guarantees a Superbowl, if anything its going to **** the team up.

If you want to see what happens when you try and build a "dream team" just look at what happened in philly.

the patriots were one of the 5 best teams in the league missing most of its key defensive players, starting 2 rookies at wr, and having overall the 2nd youngest team in the league.

The patriots are potentially the BEST team in the league RIGHT NOW, with everyone 100% healthy.

We spotted the broncos 20+ points and came back to beat them when the team was 80%. We lost to the broncos when team was 65%.

This team, as we saw it last year, at 100% health, is in a street fight with the seahawks for the title best team in the league.

 

[pazrul72]

none of that guarantees a Superbowl, if anything its going to **** the team up.

If you want to see what happens when you try and build a "dream team" just look at what happened in philly.

the patriots were one of the 5 best teams in the league missing most of its key defensive players, starting 2 rookies at wr, and having overall the 2nd youngest team in the league.

The patriots are potentially the BEST team in the league RIGHT NOW, with everyone 100% healthy.

We spotted the broncos 20+ points and came back to beat them when the team was 80%. We lost to the broncos when team was 65%.

This team, as we saw it last year, at 100% health, is in a street fight with the seahawks for the title best team in the league.

I agree with most of this and as I said this is a truly crazy theoretical situation that some people would go for because you have to admit, that team would be fun to watch and could be the best ever. They also could get insane injuries and not live up to the potential. I wrote my post purely as an example of what it means to mortgage the future. Personally I would be PISSED if they went all in like that

 

[Kontradiction]

I just want to respond to this. This is all based on faith rather than evidence. We have decades of data to conclude that:

RBs breakdown around age 30
WRs breakdown around age 33-35
QBs breakdown around age 37-39

Sure are there extreme outliers? Yes. Rice was a great WR at age 40, Favre This is one of the more divided polls on here in awhile. No would of won in a landslide 3 years ago.played like a top 3 QB at age 40, and Tony Gonzalez was a top 5 TE at age 37.

We can't count on Brady playing like Brady in 2016 or 2017.

Wish I could like this post more than once. There aren't a whole hell of a lot of quarterbacks, historically, that have played at an elite level past age 40. People are certainly HOPING it happens even citing modern medicine and training to attempt to make that case, but chances are that it won't. The hits begin to take their toll after a while and the body doesn't heal at 40 the same way it does at 24 or even 30. That doesn't mean he'll break down this year, but he's getting up there.

Still, the team doesn't need to enter cap hell in order to go "all in" on Brady. That's where you and I will disagree. They've been to the Super Bowl, and two AFCCG's in the last three seasons. They need to make smart moves at positions of need in FA and Bill needs to let his scouts do what they are paid to do in the draft instead of blowing a high pick on a guy they can more than likely get in the sixth or seventh round again. If the cap is at $135M then that's even more of a reason to not backload contracts on high priced FA signings load up for one run (that isn't guaranteed either) and then enter cap hell a couple of years later.

 

[Rob0729]

I just want to respond to this. This is all based on faith rather than evidence. We have decades of data to conclude that:

RBs breakdown around age 30
WRs breakdown around age 33-35
QBs breakdown around age 37-39

Sure are there extreme outliers? Yes. Rice was a great WR at age 40, Favre This is one of the more divided polls on here in awhile. No would of won in a landslide 3 years ago.played like a top 3 QB at age 40, and Tony Gonzalez was a top 5 TE at age 37.

We can't count on Brady playing like Brady in 2016 or 2017.

Again, your decades of data do not account for things that were not relevant during most of the decades of data like the fact that you cannot hit the QB high in the shoulders and the head or at the knees or lower anymore without drawing a foul like you could five to ten years ago. I would say that in the last five to ten years there have been about a half dozen significant rules to protect the QB.

The only elite QB to get to 38 or older during the modern era of rules changes, modern medicine, and modern conditioning is Favre.

For example, Joe Theisman probably wouldn't have forced into retirement at age 36 because of one hit if he was playing today because the hit that LT put on him is illegal today because he launched at Theisman hitting him in the head with one hand and landed on him driving him down at a bad angle. Odds are a defender would never make a tackle like that because it would almost definitely draw a roughing the passer penalty. In fact, Theisman was forced to retire because the surgery to repair his broken leg made his repaired leg shorter than his other leg. Surgery 20 years later for the same injury might have allowed him to play again.

 

[IllegalContact]

So with my 27.5 million I'm going to sign
Decker 5 for 50 15 SB
Pitta 5 for 40 10 SB
Mack 5 for 45 12 SB
Houston 4 for 35 8 SB
Melton 4 for 35 8 SB
Talib 4 for 40 10 SB
Ward 6 for 50 12 SB

skip melton and grab raji for one year
skip mack and draft a C
skip houston......not sure where you would put him and how he would make things better anyway
skip pitta and decker....and add cotchery and draft a couple of TE's
a maybe with ward, but not for that $$
a maybe with talib

trade mallett for #33
draft:
1 - DT ra'shede hageman or DT stephon tuitt
2a - TE TE jace amaro
2b - OG gabe jackson
3 - C marcus martin
4 - CB keith mcgill
6 - TE gator hoskins
7 - LB/S kevin pierre-louis

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Houston has the number 1 pick and Bill O’Brien is the coach. He might believe his team is good enough to win now with Tom Brady. So I’m saying trade Tom Brady to Houston if:
They give us their #1 and #2 this year and #1 next year.

As long as you're OK with releasing most of Wilfork, Mankins, McCourty, Sopoaga, Gregory, Gostkowski, and Kelly—and replacing them with rookies/vet minimum players—just to cover the $16M dead money hit.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Yes, because once Brady goes, all bets are off. We should pull out all the stops to get there and win it, one more time, because who knows when we are ever going to get there again? We have tried the "get a good enough team and Brady and BB will do the rest" routine for about 7 years now and it hasn't worked. We always fall just short. They should pay top dollar for studs on both sides of the ball for the next year or two and after that, who cares? We will have been to the mountain one more time and we can have a few down years after that. I am tired of falling just short.

Whew, there I said it. What I really feel.

I doubt very much that the Krafts' plans include a provision for "a few down years." Rather, I suspect that they are already looking ahead two or three seasons and trying to maximize against that horizon, with their view on Brady's longevity and Belichick's plans something that is discussed only by father and son behind closed doors and repeated to no one.

We should never forget that Bob Kraft has said time and again that his organizational objective for the Patriots every season is to be competitive to win their division and get to the Playoffs. They seem to take the view that "anything can happen" once they get to the Playoffs and, as much as they would like to take home the Lombardi every year, focus instead on the bigger picture.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Again, your decades of data do not account for things that were not relevant during most of the decades of data like the fact that you cannot hit the QB high in the shoulders and the head or at the knees or lower anymore without drawing a foul like you could five to ten years ago. I would say that in the last five to ten years there have been about a half dozen significant rules to protect the QB.

The only elite QB to get to 38 or older during the modern era of rules changes, modern medicine, and modern conditioning is Favre.

For example, Joe Theisman probably wouldn't have forced into retirement at age 36 because of one hit if he was playing today because the hit that LT put on him is illegal today because he launched at Theisman hitting him in the head with one hand and landed on him driving him down at a bad angle. Odds are a defender would never make a tackle like that because it would almost definitely draw a roughing the passer penalty. In fact, Theisman was forced to retire because the surgery to repair his broken leg made his repaired leg shorter than his other leg. Surgery 20 years later for the same injury might have allowed him to play again.

Kurt Warner retired at age 38. Although he played well in his final year, he still called it quits.

Despite modern medicine/conditioning and rule changes, these 2004+ players still hit their age walls:

RB: Corey Dillon (age 31) Shaun Alexander (30), Edgerrin James (30), LT (32, but wasn't himself for years), Fred Taylor (32), Michael Turner (31), Willis McGahee (32), Steven Jackson (30), etc.

exceptions: None

WR: Ochocinco (34), Randy Moss (34), TJ Houshmanzadeh (33),Torry Holt (age 33), Brandon Lloyd (32), Marvin Harrison (35), Deion Branch (33), etc.

exceptions: T.O at 37, Derrick Mason at 37

QB: Kerry Collins (37), Kurt Warner (none, but chose to retire at 38), Matt Hasselbeck (36), Rich Gannon (38), Steve McNair (34), Drew Bledsoe (34)

exceptions: Brett Favre at age 40, Peyton Manning if he plays well in 2014.