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Woodhead vs Tomlinson

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by CheeseMonkeys, Dec 21, 2010.

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Who is the more talented and valuable RB in 2010

  1. D. Woodhead

    90.3%
  2. L. Tomlinson

    9.7%
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  1. MC FLY AZ

    MC FLY AZ Rookie

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    I think people might be surprised at who gets the bulk of the carries when playoffs come around and the game is really tight during all 4 quarters. In the 2 games this year where the scores have been really close even through the 2nd half (Ravens and Packers) and the Patriots really need to score, its been Woodhead's time to shine. He's has been amazing at moving the chains.

    When we need to score Woody will be getting most of the carries. in my opinion.
  2. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    Woodhead has joked about his height not being 5-9. His height has been variously reported from 5-7 to 5-9. I've never heard his weight questioned by anyone except you. The published ranges are 195-200. That's a lot more than Sproles and Dunn.
    I meant what I said. I'm not accusing you of racism, I have no idea why you're discounting Woodhead. But there are racial undertones to these discussions for some people, sometimes subliminally.The operant racism innuendos actually often go the other way: many believe that white fans are overvaluing Woodhead just because he's white. The whole racism thing is a can of worms probably best left closed, and I concede I shouldn't have opened it.

    This verges on ad hominem. You have no way of knowing what I know or don't know, but of course you're free to guess. You're a pretty bad guesser if you really think I could post what I post without knowing such elementary things about FO. They're commendably transparent about their methodology.

    While you're technically incorrect about your DVOA point -- Patriots' backs have not led the league in rushing DVOA (and you conveniently don't mention receiving DVOA) -- I'll concede that Kevin Faulk also has had some good years by DVOA/DYAR, and 2008 was a very good year. Kevin Faulk is a very good back running in an obviously similar scheme. But Woodhead's first partial year in the same system projects to score better than Faulk's best DYAR year, (388 vs 370), and much better than Faulk's other two good years (165 in 2009, 209 in 2007). Faulk is my favorite offensive player in the Belichick Times, and I like that FO credits him for his enormous contributions. I hope we can all agree that Faulk is also an underrated player. Faulk *is* a comparable for Woodhead, but Woodhead is already outscoring him in his best ever DYAR/DVOA year. That's likely a consequence of Danny being visibly and measurably faster and quicker than Kevin -- let's hope he proves to be anywhere near as clutch.

    You were implying that the salary Belichick is paying Woodhead is a proxy for his true value. It's a red herring because almost by definition market value is much less than real value for underrated players. The extreme version would be to say that Woodhead had zero value when he was cut. At least at that moment, he was absurdly undervalued. His perceived value has improved since then, but is still controversial or we wouldn't be having this exchange. My whole thesis is that there's evidence that Woodhead is still very undervalued. His compensation reflects his market value, not his true value. Belichick is happy to pay market. Many of us were nervous he'd wait too long and see Woodhead's market value skyrocket.

    I don't find unsupported assertions of authority to be compelling arguments.

    DYAR (Defence Adjusted Yards Above Replacement) is a pretty useful currency for comparison of absolute contributions. Yards are reasonably comparable, and FO adjusts for field position and "success". There are some obvious comparative problems, such as QB's sharing their DYAR with their receivers, and the similar problem with OLINE and other contributors to RB performance. Not that you said that.

    Certainly adding RB rushing and receiving DYAR together into combined DYAR is a non-standard and hence potentially perilous innovation, but I took that liberty. Running Backs contribute importantly both rushing and receiving, and in that regard Woodhead and Faulk similarly benefit by combined DYAR. I'm perfectly happy with the conclusion that Kevin Faulk has been a tremendous all round contributor for the Patriots, and had a great year in 2008. But I reiterate, Danny Woodhead in his first year is already projecting to be better by that measure than Kevin in his best year, and much better than Kevin in the other years you mentioned.

    My point remains, by combined DYAR, Woodhead looks to be in his first year a top 5 back, despite getting relatively few touches and targets. It's not an earthshaking claim, and even here most fans don't care about DYAR et al. But it's objective evidence suggesting that something special might be happening with Danny Woodhead.
    This is the controversy: is Danny Woodhead is a nice but readily replaceable 3rd down back, or might he be a potentially elite player at the start of his career? It's a legitimate controversy or we wouldn't be spending so much time on it. I would have thought it would be an exciting time for Patriot fans as we await the verdict. I would also expected we'd share a rooting interest in the outcome. Hell, this is a Patriot's fan board. But this is no longer fun, and I'm spending far to much time on it. Danny's play will speak for itself. Discussion about Woodhead seems to be polarizing the fan base here just like it did in New York-- and it really did, I ended up looking at Jets fans boards when researching Woodhead early on, and it got very heated there.

    I'm going to let this particular thread debate drop here and now. There's still a great deal to be learned for all of us about Danny Woodhead the professional football player. It's possible some of us are over-hyping him. It's also possible some of you are seriously underrating him. Let's watch some more football and revisit this later.
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2010
  3. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    So his height measurements are notoriously overestimated, to the point that he himself jokes about it, but we should absolutely take his weight measurements at face value? Seems to me like the credibility of them is shot already.

    The fact that you insist on applying the implications that you apply makes it pretty clear that you don't understand what DVOA actually means.

    You're right, I should have qualified that with *if Woodhead finishes 2010 at the top for rushing DVOA with <100 carries. My mistake, I messed up. Doesn't really change the core point, though, FWIW, which is that, in that case, it will be four years running, because it's been true for the last three years:

    2007: Sammy Morris
    2008: Kevin Faulk
    2009: Kevin Faulk

    In fact, if I was willing to apply FO stats in the same cursory way that you do, I could easily turn this into an indictment of Woodhead, since he might well end up being the first Patriots backup/specialist RB in four years to not lead the NFL in this category.

    I wasn't implying anything- I was making a direct and explicit statement to counter Ice Ice Brady's point that GMs value guys like Faulk and Woodhead more than they value Tomlinson. That is factually untrue, as I demonstrated. It turns out that it's pretty easy to determine how much front offices value a type of player, and it's by looking at how much the best guys at that position are paid. When the very best third down RB is paid significantly less than a guy that a lot of you are trying to claim is an 'okay' every-down RB, that pretty clearly shows IIB's point to be untrue. If suggesting that you know less than you think you do about DVOA borders on ad hominen, then stating that you know what I'm implying is ad hominem (it's not, because that's a ridiculously low standard, but it's the one that you chose).

    I agree 100% with everything that you wrote there. I dunno what to tell you, except that you're still arguing against a straw man.

    The offense that Woodhead is currently contributing in is much, much different from the ones that Faulk was a part of, so an unadjusted straight-up comparison may not be accurate. That said, it's an intriguing comparison, and odds are that the conclusion may be accurate. But even if Woodhead is significantly better than Faulk, and I readily acknowledge that he might be, it still doesn't change my point at all. I love Faulk, and he's an invaluable Patriot, but the same limitations that apply to Woodhead also apply to him. Credit to Belichick for finding guys like this and realizing how incredibly valuable that they can be as long as you play to their strengths and disguise their weaknesses. Belichick's been acknowledged over and over for being the best in the NFL at this; I dunno when it became an insult to the players to acknowledge this reality.

    Is anyone on this thread actually claiming the bolded part? I think that Woodhead is a uniquely talented and special player who brings a whole lot to the table. He's certainly a lot more than a "nice but readily replaceable 3rd down back". Once again, it seems like you've spent the majority of this thread putting words into my mouth so that you can argue against straw men. My point is, and has always been, pretty clear. That Woodhead's a hell of a player, but Tomlinson is still more valuable. And this is coming from a guy who, going into this season, thought that LT's career was basically over. I was clearly wrong, though, and when I'm wrong I have no problem admitting it.

    I'm with you, though: Woodhead is an immensely talented and intriguing player, and I'm sure that he's going to be fantastic for us for a lot of years. Finding a young Faulk replacement is more than anyone could have hoped for this year, and yet it still appears that it may have happened. I'd hesitate to say that with certainty at this point, since Woodhead is clearly inferior to Faulk in picking up blitzes (another one of those things that DVOA doesn't account for, but is crucial to this role), but he has plenty of time to develop that part of his game, and he's already adequate at it. It's going to be fun to watch him kick ass for the Pats, and watch Jets fans grumble about how they had him but Rex was too stupid to see that he's flat-out better than Clowney and McKnight.
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2010
  4. CheeseMonkeys

    CheeseMonkeys Rookie

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    #11 Jersey

    Good Arguments here...Next thread is: Who's been the more complete and talented CB in 2010? McCourty vs Samuel

    Just Kidding!... Or am I?:D
  5. HershilShah23

    HershilShah23 Guest

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    AWESOME (Ignore this I am trying to get to 50 posts)
  6. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That would be an interesting debate, I think. I think you could make a pretty good case for Asante just for this year, except that he's been hurt. I'd probably take McCourty even for this year though (I like CBs who can tackle), and for the future it's no question.
  7. HershilShah23

    HershilShah23 Guest

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    Oh Woodhead without a doubt because Tomlinson is old as hell and is going to retire soon and if he was so valuable the Chargers would not have released him.
  8. CheeseMonkeys

    CheeseMonkeys Rookie

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    Yeah, Samuel is more experienced and more of a ball hawk than McCourty but McCourty is a better tackler and much more physical.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2010
  9. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    The Chargers also released Welker, and the Jets released Woodhead. There are a lot of good points that you can make, but I wouldn't go by holding it against a guy that he's been cut before. Especially in the case of someone like LT, where being cut had more to do with salary than with not being one of the best 53 guys under contract.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2010
  10. italia44

    italia44 Rookie

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    Internet accent?......Brilliant retort,rayclay:rocker:
  11. Rob0729

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    At this point, there is no debate between Tomlinson and Woodhead. Tomlinson is done. Even Jets fans have come to this realization. Early in the year, he fueled his emotions and desire to prove the Chargers wrong to give himself a brief return to his former self. But that can only drive him for so long until age finally catches up with him.

    Woodhead, on the other hand, is arguably one of the best third down/change of pace back in the game right now.
  12. dex13

    dex13 Rookie

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    would definitely rather have woodhead than baby LT. His attitude is horrible and I can easily see him pouting and playing like crap because he got upset over some perceived slight by the coaching staff or by Brady. Definitely not needed here.
  13. goheels22002

    goheels22002 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This is any odd comparison for two players who fill different roles for teams that use running backs in different systems. It seems more reasonable to compare BJGE and LT in which case age is a big factor and the games that matter. But one would not build a "ground and pound" offense around a backfield of BJGE and Woodhead. It's a case of NE getting a lot out of a couple of change of pace guys. Woodhead and BJGE were backups until Faulk got hurt and Maroney got dumped.

    LT was a featured back with Green in that system and has actually done well given the circus that we call the Jets.

    It makes you wonder what type of production BB would have gotten out of LT.
  14. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    Because he went out in the 1st quarter, Woodhead came 3 carries short of the 100 needed for qualifying at the top of the DVOA rushing leaderboard (damn, I was anticipating the gloat :D). More impressively, if he had, he would have set the all-time DVOA record for a running back at 41.5%, and would have been only the third running back in DVOA history to be both #1 in rushing and #1 in receiving DVOA in the same season. He was 8th in rushing DYAR. Given that Woodhead basically missed 3 games this season, that's an incredible performance. He's really been key to this team's improvement. You could see on Sunday how pedestrian BJGE and Taylor were subbing for Woodhead in the situations where he likely would have run wild against the Bills. We really need him back for the playoffs.

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010
    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Final 2010 DVOA Ratings

    Another interesting note is Reiss's numbers that BJGE had 423 snaps to Woodhead's 394. Woodhead missed the first two games entirely. If you give him the additional allocation for those two missing games, he'd have had 450 snaps to BJGE's 423. They truly were platooned this year, and as Reiss observes were very complementary.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-.../_/id/4691132/offensive-snaps-for-2010-season

    Besides Woodhead's great season, BJGE finished 3rd in both rushing DVOA and DYAR. The Patriots team rushing DVOA actually was good enough to be 8th best all time in team rushing DVOA (the Michael Vick Eagles rushing DVOA was 3rd all time hence the Patriots were 2nd to them this year). This is a big improvement from last year's team, despite Mankins and Neal basically missing half a season each. Some of the year to year rushing improvement has to be credited to the addition of Crumpler, Gronkowski, and Hernandez, but a lot of credit has to go to Woodhead and BJGE.

    Lots of other interesting Patriots DVOA stats this year. Unsurprisingly, the Patriots 2010 Offense is best all time in DVOA, beating the 2007 team's record. Perhaps more surprisingly, the Patriots *team* DVOA is second all time (to the 2007 team), and its weighted DVOA is the highest ever. The defense ended up 19th in the league in DVOA this year, but by weighted DVOA improved to 11th. Besides Woodhead and BJGE, Brady (of course), Gronkowski, Hernandez and Branch all finished in the top 10 for DVOA and DYAR (although not DYAR for Branch) at their positions.

    You have to credit Brady with opening things up for the running game, but it goes the other way, too. Brady's great 2007 season was attributable to the addition of Moss and Welker. This year's team lost Moss and had a hobbled Welker, yet was an even better offense. No prior year Brady offense was top-10 in rushing DVOA, not even the 2004 Dillon team. We know Branch is no superstar. Gronkowski, Hernandez, BJGE and Woodhead were the difference makers that made this Brady offense the best in DVOA all time.

    By Football Outsiders stats, the Patriots are by far the hottest team ever entering the playoffs -- although keep in mind that Football Outsiders stats only go back to 1993 at the moment.
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2011
  15. RamJet

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    Lol at this poll....let's compare a 10 year vet and future HOFer with a second year player that has yet to play an entire 16 game schedule.

    I guess the next poll will be Revis vs. McCourty. Sad thing is I bet 90% of you homers will say McCourty.....LOL!
  16. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    From the O.P.:

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  17. RamJet

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    Fair enough....I still hope someone on here creates a McCourty vs. Revis poll. Would LOVE to see the numbers on that one! I still say 90% of you guys go with McCourty while 100% of the NFL coaches (and most fans outside of NE) would go with the other guy...

    FYI - not hating on McCourty at all...you guys appear to have something special with him:)
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2011
  18. Joker

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    nah...let's do a Brady vs. "The Sanchize!!!!! Gaa Gaa Goo Goony!!!!!" like Ray Ray 19 and Vin and PaulieC and Beefish and Warfish and...well...just about every mutt that posts at any Jets board does like little baby girls playing with their Suzie Wets-Her-Pants doll...

    [​IMG]
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2011
  19. Sivy

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    I would take Mccourty over Revis in a second. I am not joking at all..Revis fell off this year.
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2011
  20. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact On the Roster

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    I would take mccourty and his contract versus revis with his.

    lets compare gronkowski versus keller?........who would you rather have?
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