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What's wrong with these deal??

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Miguel, Apr 2, 2006.

  1. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

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    The Pats are under the cap by 17 to 18 million. My proposed deal would take $4 million of that cap space leaving the Pats with 13 to 14 million to address the holes in the team, sign draft picks, sign players 52 and 53, sign a 8-man practice squad, provide an injury replacement reserve, and extend Branch and Samuel.

    My proposed deal would be the biggest ever for a DL in terms of new money over a 3-year period and over a 5-year period.
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I would possibly move some signing bonus or salary to roster bonus this year to use a little more room now and a little less later.

    But send it to : bill.belichick@patriots.com, it looks good to me :)
  3. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    Makes sense..but would the Pats agree?? Would Sey??? Reasonable..but...it makes sense...what you say about the cqp is so on target...so?? Why won't they??
  4. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Me, I'd take it. Dunno how I'd spend all that money though.
    It makes sense and has the advantage of making the worst cap hit this season where we have the slack. I'd always thought that our cap triming was for Big Sey and the Twig deals, not for the Kraft family estate inheritance.
  5. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams pfadmins PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    20 million guarenteed up front money, that's alot of cash!! Tough to turn that down, plus no dummy years at the end, causing us to release him. Hopefully they can get something down and end this drama before it starts.
  6. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Another 2.5 million to this year's roster bonus, taking the average hit down by half a million/year, and taking this year's remaining money down to about 11 million? This would seriously tie the team's hands in terms of FA if done now, but by the time of the deal, we will pretty much know who we did and did not pick up in FA. We might be able to squeeze in Peerless Price, but no Eric Moulds, maybe Brad Kassel, but not Lavar Arrington.

    Cutting it too tight?

    PFnV
  7. ralmat55

    ralmat55 Rookie

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    Has any non-quarterback ever received $20 million in bonuses? I can't see the Patriots being the first team to do it.

    I'd offer a $10m signing bonus in 06 with a $6m option bonus due by 3/1/07. while ncreasing his 06 base salary by $4m. Overall, this would result in a additional $6m against the 06 cap leaving the Pats with about $10m of available cap space.

    If the plan is to fill their holes through the draft and with minimum-salary free agents as it appears, $10m should be enough to do that and also extend other contracts such as Branch and Koppen.
  8. tombonneau

    tombonneau Rookie

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    I disagree. I think giving $20MM to Seymour as a SB is a good thing from a Pats PR perspective. They are somehow being mislablelled as cheap by the media & some fans. But giving Sey what he is due and paying him very generous market value sends the signal that if you are a key player and are valued, NE will do what it has to do to make you happy.

    IMO, every team should be lucky to have 2-3 guys that they would pay this sort of money to. I don't believe its crippling if you have 2 guys (in this case Brady & Sey) being paid Top 3 money for their position as long as they continue to play at that level. That is how you win championships.

    Where you get into trouble is when you make guys like Adam Archuleta the highest paid player at their position.
  9. borg

    borg Rookie

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    The way I see it, the Pats are trying to set up there roster for another prolonged run which doesn't include this year and maybe not even next. By securing its base...Brady, Seymour, Branch, Oline...for 4-6 years...I can see BB using cap space now on Seymour and Branch in the form of monster salaries that don't need to be prorated after 2006. Give Seymour an $18 mill salary for 2006 and $3-4 mill per year after and never worry about his cap space after 2006. Same with Branch but with less $$$. Then when Dillon gets dumped after next year, money gets freed up to sign the whomever, using traditional prorated bonuses.
    A one time hit will guarantee the Pats will suit up the guys they want to make the next run with. Pre pay the piper and get younger.
  10. arrellbee

    arrellbee Rookie

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    Miguel - you have a very sound layout of possible contract for Seymour. If the Pats sign Seymour, it will be interesting to see how close you have forecast the actual numbers - you would likely be very very close.

    The $45 Million dollar question remains, however, will the Patriots reach a deal with Seymour at all.

    To the best of my knowledge, since Belichick and Pioli took over, the Patriots have never signed a contract making a player the highest paid player at their position (correction or clarifying info would be very welcome, Miguel). All factors taken into account over expected years of the contract, I don't think Brady's contract made him the highest paid player either. So this would be a pretty significant change or exception from previous practice. While I would never be surprised to see Belichick and Pioli do something different than previously (how many times have they reinforced that), personally I would be more surprised than not if they would give any player, Seymour included, the highest contract.

    Your formula looks very sound for a reasonable highest paid contract. But, it would put the Patriots in a position of allocating over 10% of their cap next year to one player, and probably over 15% of their cap in 2008 to one player. I have to wonder if the Patriots would do that. It would certainly be a very surprisingly significant about-face from what has appeared to be their fundamental approach.

    We also may well never know if the Patriots would have offered this high a contract, just like we will never know what they were willing to offer McGinest, Givens, or Vinatieri. For a couple reasons.
    - Given this years funny-money cap jump, Seymour and agent would most likely be looking for a 'higher than any other player' contract to be 'higher' in terms of the excessive jumps that have occurred this year. If that were to be the case, which seems highly likely, it seems very unlikely that the Patriots would come to those terms when they look ahead to next year and judge that after this year's spending frenzie, there is going to be a lot less money floating around next year for free agents.
    - Unless the Patriots come up with an offer that is so much 'higher' that Seymour and agent can't even dream that they can beat in it full free agency bidding next year, I would be very surprised if they can resist the allure of going to free agency next year. Even if overall free agency money is tighter next year, all it takes is two teams who are willing to go thru the roof to sign Seymour or one team to outbid only themselves. I would be awfully surprised if there wasn't at least one team like that.
    - The Patriots appear to not leave even the smallest stones unturned. Doing an extension this year puts them in the position of paying out a huge amount of guaranteed money even if Seymour has a career-ending injury this year. By putting off the extension to next year, they put off their exposure to that possibility for a year. This is probably not a significant factor.

    So what can we expect ? Crystal balls are notoriously hazy, but from past history maybe we can make a couple guesses.

    Given that Seymour has already shown that he is willing to sit out rather than play for what he considers to be an insufficient amount of money, it seems more likely than not that we'll see the same thing this year. The Patriots seem to have shown that they are willing to negotiate and increase compensation in the case of Seymour (altho I'm not sure we know the exact nature of last year's negotiation). So as long as Seymour's demands aren't more than the Patriots are willing to pay versus just getting on without him, they may again reach a one year accomodation. On Seymour's side, he would weigh the chance of injury before his big payday versus making some decent coin this year as offered by the Pats. If he still sat out, he would likely return towards the end of the season to qualify for accruing this season so he still goes to free agency next year. Another possibility - and maybe Miguel can say whether we would have had any visibility of this - would be that part of last year's deal (or even a deal this year) was to include a sizable number of LTBE bonuses for this year - that would easily fit into the model of the Patriots where they are willing to pay for value while limiting their risk.

    So what about next year's smoky crystal ball ? As I said, I personally think it reasonably unlikely that the Pats will feel they are in a position to negotiate an extension even next year. So one interesting possibility would be to franchise Seymour where they pay slightly less than top dollar and only have a one year term without the long term risk or cap commitment. Seems like that would be a Patriot idea of good business - and they have shown that they are willing to use the franchise tool in the past. That would also put them in a very strong position to trade Seymour for significant value in terms of a player or high draft pick(s) so that they wouldn't end up with nothing in return for him leaving. They would be in a position to have their cake or get a new dessert.

    * One other thing that may well have been mentioned but I have just missed it (apologies in advance) is a possibility of trading Seymour this season. They might see a Seymour instant starter replacement available in a high draft pick or they might take a player in trade that they rate highly as well as lower pick(s). I would think this is a real possibility except that BB/SP seem pretty conservative when it comes to bird in the hand versus bird in the bush.

    I'm sure some folks will be mighty upset with me for suggesting that we might lose Seymour - so be it, I understand completely and certainly can't fault you. But more interesting would be some thoughts on the underlying factors that I have mentioned above, or ones that I have probably missed, that tend to influence the odds of what will happen. Any kind of speculation and forecasting when it comes the Patriots is an IFFY proposition at best. But it doesn't keep it from being an interesting exercise.

    Cheers.

    Edit: * Well one thread at least where a trade was discussed was
    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showpost.php?p=61318&postcount=1
    posted a couple weeks ago by SaCaCh.
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2006
  11. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There are a couple of issues with regard Seymour

    1) Are the patriots ready to risk $22M of new money for anyone. The risk is huge. How much did we lose on Colvin when he was injured? Is he worth his cap, even now?

    2) Will Seymour play this year under his present contract? If not, would he play for say a $4M increase.

    I have no problem with Seymour at $9M a year. However, I don't think the pats will pay $22M this year.

    =========================================

    There seems to be a $13M available for free agency. I have problem using $4M to have the services of Seymour this year (and franchise for one or two). I have no problem with a long term deal, but I would want a split bonus or a bonus and an option.









  12. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    [​IMG]
    incorporates suggestions made in this thread
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2006
  13. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    BINGO! We have a BINGO!

    I don't think your proposal would hold water with Seymour though. This is a battle of principles between two pretty serious, determined individuals. Somebody needs to bend, because neither is going to break.

    They set a franchise QB limit with Brady of $10M AAV over the life of the deal and he agreed in principle almost at once because he understood it was important for him as a leader to leave a little money on the table. And that's with a guy who really has no other players realistically looking at matching up with him. Seymour is part of a team defense and will likely set the top slot. How high they can let him set it and hope to re-sign or retain equally crucial (whether as talented or not) players going forward only BB and SP know.

    My guess is Belioli would be looking for a 6 year $7-$8M AAV deal with <$25M guaranteed over the first 3 and a two tiered bonus structure ($10M now and $6-8M in 3/07 similar to the Brady split) and perhaps roster bonuses guaranteed by playing time triggers reached in 2006-2008 for 2009-20010 (as a hedge against those knees) with decreasing backend salaries like Brady's. That enables them to take advantage of a 6th year of amortization going forward.

    And we aren't always going to be quite this cap flush. So even if they choose to boost a first year payout via structure, they will expect to reap the cap rewards going forward. Unfortunately though they know all too well players have a short term memory when it comes to 1st year bonus payouts. There are several talented players in the pipeline BB may not want to part with. They will all be watching what happens with Richard with great interest.
  14. Seymour93

    Seymour93 Rookie

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    Drew Bledsoe restructured in the 2001 offseason, making him the highest paid player in the league... :bricks:

    http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/drew_bledsoe/index.html?offset=20&
  15. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Very insightful and well thought out post arrelbee. People can get a little defensive due to their own viewpoint or koolaid intoxication. I find it's best to ignore them when something I say doesn't sit well. Most of the better posters here welcome genuine discussion of all the issues and understand that there are seldom the absolutes with this team that fans so passionately presume. BB is a complex guy and his thought processes are easily misinterpreted by us mere mortals. But suffice it to say if the Seymour deal was a slam dunk, we'd know it already. BB had to let the TC holdout slide last season - he had enough losses to deal with already (and unfortunately more to come) but it had to gaul him. As did his occasional comments about the scheme when things were going poorly early on. Then when he got hurt again - and there has been some speculation he took his time returning because he didn't in fact have his long term deal yet.

    This year I assume forewarned is forearmed. I think if not for the debaucle surrounding the new CBA we might have seen something by now - either a contract or a trade. The delay in even being able to do a deal with Seymour, if in fact that is somehow a fine print wrinkle in the new CBA, muddies the waters. As did Abraham's presence on the market.

    There is still a slim chance they could look to deal him before the draft, but my guess is we will know in July when camp opens. If he shows up on day one it would be a likely indication there is a deal in place waiting to be signed in August. If he don't show, that is likely the end of the road for him here. Although timing wise they may give him something to get him on the field before week 10 and then part company next March under the cover of an exclusive franchise tag.
  16. mcbee

    mcbee Banned

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    They would want staggered bonuses, not all in one year. As in roster bonuses. That way they don't get a huge cap-hit if he gets injured and they have to cut him.

    That's the way they did Brady's, didn't they?

    20M is just too much to have at risk.

    Plus there's a motivation factor. You don't want to have a huge bonus and then small salaries. It makes it harder for players to stay motivated when they've already earned all their money.
  17. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Belioli didn't really handle that deal - that was Kraft and Andy Wasnichuck (or whatever his name was) and was in the works for a while. It was also a phony deal, contrary to what the some believed at the time. It was fashioned to look a few dollars better by total value than Favre's deal, when in fact it was not. That's one reason why both Drew and Andy aren't here any more. And the reason why most deals are now judged on the first three years "guaranteed" payout. Just ask Daunte Culpepper - he's stuck in one of those worthless 12 year deals that sound big but seldom deliver.

    Felger says we do have one highest paid player on our roster - our long snapper. :D
  18. Seymour93

    Seymour93 Rookie

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    It was more of a Kraft engineered deal than a BB/Pioli one, but I didn't put it in my previous post for whatever reason. Nowadays where they have almost complete independence to manage the team, I could never see BB/Pioli agreeing to the deal that would take up so much of the team's cap space, such as Bledsoe's did... not even for Brady.
  19. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    I am going to just comment on the areas with which I have a differing opinion.

    Brady got the best deal ever for a player with two years left on his contract. I know that it is not the same thing but one, IMO, should take into account the fact that Brady was able to pass on the injury risk to the Patriots two years early.

    7 million out of 109 million is not over 10%. 9 million is not going to be over 15% of the cap in 2008.
    In 2004 Ty Law took up 12.67% of the Patriots' adjusted cap and they were still able to win a Super Bowl.
  20. ralmat55

    ralmat55 Rookie

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    Per Miguel's Cap Page future year totals, as of now, the Patriots are $45.5 million under the projected 07 cap of $108m. Combine that with the $16m or so they are under the 06 cap, the Patriots have $61m of unused cap space over the next 2 seasons. Say $5m a year goes to signing the draft classes.
    That leaves $51m to extend their own players and/or sign free agents from other teams.

    So, unless the Patriots suddenly go Eagles or Vikings on us and not use all of their cap space. Or, unless they go crazy in 07 signing free agents from other teams, this cap space will go to extending Seymour,Branch,Samuel Koppen etc.. Of course, there will be the theatrics of the negotiations. But the money is there to spend, and it has to be spent.

    The beauty of this is the core of this team can be kept together for the next 5 years or so with a big part of the cost being expensed in the next 2 seasons. The Patriots can pay as they go in the future reducing "credit card spending" as Belichick has referred to it in the past and the dead money that goes with it.

    Thank you Miguel for starting this thread and(again)for the work you put into maintaining your cap page.

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