What would you consider a "dream" first round next year?

[bbell31]

my fav prospects for the first two rounds..Carimi, costanzo, boling, solder, matt reynolds, stefan center penn state, odowd-usc, aj green, jeremy beal, sam acho, quinn, bowers, deunta fs unc, ingram, daniel thomas, demarco murray, evan royster, baldwin, floyd, julio jones, terrance tolliver, cameron heyward, bailey, crick, marcel dareus...whoever our first four pix r, i think we will definitely love them. Theres obviously sum quality talent at top of the draft.

 

[Peachhead]

The best 3-4 DE in that draft with the Raiders pick, and the #1 RB (Ingram maybe) with our pick. Even if we have to package one of our 2nds with our #32 :cool3: to move up for the RB.

Yes, a dream scenario. But it's a dream thread.

 

[WelshPat]

Why the hate on Von Miller by whoever said "NOT" Von Miller, watch the dude slap Okung around this last year, that'll change your mind

I think Julio Jones is over rated

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Why the hate on Von Miller by whoever said "NOT" Von Miller, watch the dude slap Okung around this last year, that'll change your mind.

Von Miller's a great pass-rusher . . . he just doesn't fit our scheme at all. Notice I said "great pass-rusher," not a "great player." He is miserable against the run, and I've never actually seen him drop into coverage, even though he has the speed and hips to pick it up pretty quickly. If somehow he drops to our last second or into the third, then you pick him up for his single trick. Prior to that, however, you can't burn a high pick for someone who plays only in obvious pass-rushing scenarios and proves a liability in several areas of the game, especially not when players like Robert Quinn will most likely be available somewhere near the Raiders 1st pick.

We should do whatever necessary to acquire Quinn's services for the next half a decade, because he's likely the most complete and talented hybrid edge player I've seen since DeMarcus Ware. He would be brilliant in our scheme. He plays disciplined, with great leverage, burst, hand usage, and integrity against the run. He's a terrific pass-rusher, but his superior athleticism also makes him an ideal OLB conversion. Add him to our current group, pending good play from the rookies, and Cunningham-Mayo-Spikes-Quinn, and we suddenly have a top 3 linebacker corp.

Heh. Maybe that's a bit over the top. But I'm sold on Quinn like I've never been on any other player since Chris Johnson. I'm not infallible, not by a long shot, but I'll fight for Quinn till we pass on him, as we inevitably will.

 

[patchick]

We should do whatever necessary to acquire Quinn's services for the next half a decade

That's kind of where I am, too, assuming Quinn continues to look like he has so far. But...when you say "whatever necessary," are you willing to give up both first-round picks?

 

[WaterfallJumper]

That's kind of where I am, too, assuming Quinn continues to look like he has so far. But...when you say "whatever necessary," are you willing to give up both first-round picks?

Depends what we get for Mankins.

In all seriousness, I'd give up one of our seconds. If that's not enough to get it done, then I suppose I would shy away from my statement. It's really hard to project this far out, though, especially because my vision for the draft is not necessarily informed by the full spectrum of information and future intents of the Patriots. So on a personal level, it's easy to say I'd surrender a package of picks for a player I believe could vault our defense to a truly elite level. As for the organization, well, I don't know if they'd be willing to take a gamble like that. For all I know, Quinn doesn't even fit into their scheme/grade/value/needs evaluation come draft time. It's really hard to say, prior to the season.

 

[Sciz]

Von Miller is basically Jerry Hughes of last draft, IMO. He's the ideal pass-rusher, but no more than that in our scheme.

 

[Marqui]

Cunningham-Mayo-Spikes-Quinn

I just got goosebumps. I want to bring Quinn here SO bad.

 

[captain stone]

Wait, what?

On face value, I completely disagree with this claim. Let's do some research, though. I'll look at the past fifteen years (which is probably the upper extent of seasons accrued by pass-rushers still in the league) to see where the first DE or OLB went in each draft, to determine how high the truly "elite" prospects go, and then look at a handful of the best prospects during that time and and see if the are on the top draft list. We'll see which one of us is correct--I've been wrong before, so we'll find out who's right.

2010 draft: Brandon Graham @ 13 overall. Dominant pass-rusher, but many questions about size and pro position. (JPP and Derrick Morgan went 15 and 16, by comparison.) We'll see how they do.

2009 draft: Technically, Tyson Jackson is a DE, but because he plays in the 34, he's not the kind of edge rusher you're talking about. Nonetheless, I'll list him as a #3 overall pick. The first real pass-rusher was Maybin @ 11 and Orakpo @ 13. Orakpo went to the pro bowl, as did Matthews (26 overall), but Maybin sucked.

2008 draft: Chris Long went #2 overall. Gholston followed at 6 (haha), and Harvey at 8 (ouch). Combined, they have fewer than 15 sacks in two seasons. Terrible.

2007 draft: The late Gaines Adams was a #4 overall pick. Jamaal Anderson went at 8, and then Jarvis Moss at 17. Career underachievers.

2006 draft: Mario Williams goes first overall. Very good career thus far. Kamerion Wimbley comes off the board at 13. Flashed talent, but been inconsistent.

2005 draft: DeMarcus Ware, perhaps the league's most dominant OLB, doesn't even go top ten. The Cowboys luck out at @ 11. Merriman followed a pick later. Erasmus James finally finds a home at 18.

2004 draft: Will Smith (not that one--the Saint!) goes 18 overall. Not a single pass-rusher in the top half of the first round.

2003 draft: Terrel Suggs went 10 overall, and earned the spot. Ty Warren shows up at 13. Not a lot of pass-rushers other than Calvin Pace @ 18, who's put together a solid, if somewhat unremarkable, career.

2002 draft: Julius Peppers claims the #2 spot, and Dwight Freeny comes in at 11. Two of the best in the league for a long, long time.

2001 draft: Justin Smith (4), Andre Carter (7), and Jamal Reynolds (10) show up early on. Smith and Carter are steady vets, but haven't exactly attained elite status.

2000 draft: Courtney Brown emerged as the top dog in the draft, but injuries cut his career short. John Abraham (13) has had several fantastic years.

1999 draft: Jevon Kearse, who still holds the rookie sack record after a decade of play (14.5 his rookie year), went 16 overall. Ebenezer Ekuban went @ 20.

1998 draft: Andre Wadsworth (3) has been completely forgotten by league history, while Grant Wistrom (6) and Greg Ellis (8) have had quite a few solid years.

1997 draft: Peter Boulware (4) was the only high pick, as no other pass-rushers went until 17 and 18. Boulware is the Raven's all time sack leader--good pick.

1996 draft: Simeon Rice (3), Cedric Jones (5), and Regan Upshaw (12) all went high, but only Rice played up to expectations.

Okay, that's 15 years. I think that's a large enough sample to look over. Let me post this first, and then edit with analysis; this little composition box is too cramped to look at all the numbers at once. Just wait patiently . . .

- -=- -

Top 5 pass-rushers: 9 out of 15 (60% of the time).
Top 10 pass-rushers: 10 out of 15 (66.667% of the time).
Top 5 rush linebackers: 1 out of 15 (6.667% of the time).
Top 10 rush linebackers: 3 out of 15 (20% of the time).

Total players surveyed in 15 years: 36.
Dominant players: 9 that I count. Feel free to quibble; I'm just going off gut reaction, not anything quantifiable. Still, this is only 25% of players.
Solid players: 17 by my count. Again, this is pretty arbitrary, so you're welcome to correct me. Less than half of the players listed play up to even moderate expectations.

Let's also consider that in the past two years, no pass-rushers came off the board in the top ten. Significant trend, in my opinion.

One last thought. Some of the best pass-rushers of the decade have been second, third, and fourth round guys. I think there's significantly more value there when considering the bust rate of "elite" pass rushers. Furthermore, when we consider the Patriots Super Bowl teams, only Willie was a top-five pick, and he didn't start his career at OLB. The fact of the matter is, elite OLB prospects generally go in the 10 - 16 range.

I'd welcome more input, though; I am not as familiar with league history as I'd like to be. I'm pretty young (22), and I've only followed football since the year of our first championship, so I'm sure I've overlooked a lot of players and a lot of trends.

Outstanding reasearch/analysis. I agree with your conclusion that even if the Faiders' pick is in the 10-15 range, there should still be an elite pass-rusher available, should Bill decide to - mirabile dictu - finally use a high pick on one.

And for someone only 22 years old, you have done well to learn your draft history, grasshopper.

(Ah, to be 22 again: hanging at the beach at Cubi Point Philippines, drinking San Miguel, smoking sweet PI weed, walking Magsaysay Blvd, eyeballing the LBFMs, listening to the local bands hit the notes but not quite the lyrics...good times, good times...)

Edit: As for my dream 1st (& 2nd) round(s), I would like to see the top 4 picks used for:
Pass-Rusher (obviously);
DE (but not a blob like Brace or Deaderick);
OL (any position but RT, unless Vollmer is the long-term LT);
RB or WR, or one more OLman.

 

[Nonentity]

That's kind of where I am, too, assuming Quinn continues to look like he has so far. But...when you say "whatever necessary," are you willing to give up both first-round picks?

Depends.

If he's at the Peppers level coming of the college, then absolutely.
If not, then it's a tougher call.


Let's assume that we have the 10th and 30th picks. You can probably trade into the top 5 with those picks without a problem. If Quinn's worth it, let's go get him.

 

[WelshPat]

You guys make great points about Von Miller, but the poster who posted those drafts from the last 15 years makes a great point, these great pass rushers tend to NOT go in the top 10, even more so if you are a 3-4 OLB convert.

Check out Wares combine numbers, people said JPP was a freak this past year, Ware BLOWS his numbers out of the water, it's not even close.

We can get 3-4 OLB later in the first or even in the 2nd round, because they tend to fall as the conversion is so hard to judge.

Someone like Von Miller may be weaker against the run, but he is a great pass rusher, kind of like Dumerville. Undersized, but he what, 17 sacks last year? If you can only do 1 thing, as BB says, you've got to do it great and i think Von Miller could be a great pass rusher

 

[Sciz]

Dumervil is also playing in a completely different 3-4 scheme. You can't add a guy like Miller or Dumervil to the Patriots without completely redoing the scheme that Bill has used (and had plenty of success with) in his years here.

 

[WelshPat]

^I understand, but using a 2nd round pick on a guy who can get 10+ sacks in a pass rush specialist role? I would take it.

I also think that some guys can just play, and the difference in the 3-4 thing is over rated.

Bill would find a way to use him.

However, i will admit that i doubt us taking him

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

A.J. Green
Donte Hightower

 

[Snake Eyes]

Robert Quinn

Jonathon Baldwin

 

[Metaphors]

The Pats likely enter 2011 with long-term (or potentially short-term) needs for a big outside WR, a true 3-4 DE with the ability to create havoc in the backfield and a rush OLB. I contend that the 2011 draft is ideal for having these particular needs along with multiple high picks to get them. After mid-to-late round 2, the talent dropoff is likely to be huge. Consider these guys at the top of the 2011 draft:

DE Austin, Marvin UNC 6030 310
DE Bailey, Allen Miami 6040 288
DE Clayborn, Adrian Iowa 6030 286
DE Crick, Jared Nebraska 6060 285
DE Dareus, Marcell Alabama 6030 306
DE Heyward, Cameron Ohio State 6050 285
OLB Ayers, Akeem UCLA 6040 252
OLB Beal, Jeremy Oklahoma 6030 260
OLB Bowers, Da'Quan Clemson 6040 278
OLB Miller, Von Texas A&M 6020 240
OLB Quinn, Robert UNC 6050 268
OLB Romeus, Greg Pittsburgh 6050 268
WR Baldwin, Jonathan Pittsburgh 6050 225
WR Floyd, Michael Notre Dame 6030 220
WR Green , AJ Georgia 6040 205
WR Jones, Julius Alabama 6040 212
WR Tolliver, Terrence LSU 6040 206

There are a couple of others that could enter the top 50 list (Kheeston Randall at DE and Sam Acho/Jack Crawford at OLB) but I wouldn't be looking for immediate contributors later in the 2011 draft. With the Raider and Panther picks, I think the Pats can get one of each from the list above.

My dream picks would be Quinn, Dareus and Green.
More realistic, something like Dareus, Baldwin and Beal...which is still pretty sweet.

 

[cstjohn17]

Raiders pick 1
Patriots pick 32

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

A.J. Green
Donte Hightower

Those were the two guys I wanted as well before we drafted Spikes. I think Hightower will actually be better than Rolando McClain.

AJ Green is the WR I want but I'd also consider Baldwin, Jones, or Floyd. What a great class of top flight WR!

I think they also need DL and OLB help. A good young RE to replace Seymour and an upgrade at OLB would great. Dareus, Clayborn, Bailey, Crick, Heyward all look nice at DE. Quinn, Ayers, Romeus, Bowers, Kerrigan, Acho are all guys I'm keeping an eye on at OLB.

I think we need a RB as well, but those guys sometimes slide to the 2nd round and are a dime a dozen. Hoping for a guy like Ryan Williams to slide to the 2nd. Vereen looked good at times last year too. Armando Allen could probably be good value in the mid rounds.

 

[glm]

1a. Robert Quinn
1b. Marcell Darius (Probably won't fall this far, but hey this is my dream 1st round.)

 

[WaterfallJumper]

1a. Robert Quinn
1b. Marcell Darius (Probably won't fall this far, but hey this is my dream 1st round.)

Unless Darius is reinstated, he could experience a precipitous fall. In fact, he might not even go in the first round at all, given the glut of defensive line talent this upcoming year. That said, I'm not positive he's the perfect fit as a two-gapper. I think he's a good player, highly explosive, and can definitely play the end in a 34. My concern is that it wastes his considerable talents.

I'm totally on board with Quinn, though. In fact, I've decided that I'd be more than happy to use any chip we have available, including our second 1st rounder, to move up and take him if required. We've stockpiled so many picks lately that we don't really have room on the roster for another dozen rookies--why not cash in on one of the most talented players I've ever had the privilege of watching?

More and more, lately, I'd like to see us go offensive line early next year. I am not opposed to double-dipping, either: a highly-rated guard/center and tackle would do nicely.