Welcome to PatsFans.com

What would you consider a "dream" first round next year?

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by ctpatsfan77, Jun 8, 2010.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,401
    Likes Received:
    110
    Ratings:
    +180 / 4 / -5

    It's a fairly simple question; right now I'm just curious: as of today, what would you consider a "dream" first round for New England?

    You can name specific players or just positions if you prefer; you can make any sort of plausible scenario you want (e.g., you can have trades up/down, but you can't have a team trading its first in 2011 to NE for NE's third in 2012 or something silly like that).

    Also, just to keep things from getting too far out of control, let's assume that the Patriots do not acquire any more picks via trades.

    Soβ€”who do you want? :D

    Me, if Moss leaves, I'll take the best "Pats type" WR and a trade down to pick up a first in 2012 and another second in 2011.

    If Moss stays, I'll take the best front 7 player and trade down.
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2010
  2. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    7,209
    Likes Received:
    87
    Ratings:
    +200 / 2 / -0

    1. AJ Green
    32. 3-4 DE (I'm not sold on any of the hyped guys in a 2-gap, so we'll need someone to step up this college season)
    34. OLB (NOT Von Miller, other than that, I haven't done enough research)
    64. Some RB, maybe Faulk replacement?
  3. the wrothbroughterer

    the wrothbroughterer Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    338
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Mark Ingram, Akeem Ayers, Jared Crick, and Jonathan Baldwin.

    Shooting for the moon on this one, they can definitely grab 2 of those guys though.
  4. Criptonite

    Criptonite Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2010
    Messages:
    161
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    As of right now, any dream scenario starts with using the Raiders pick to get Robert Quinn to play at OLB. He looks like he could be an absolute monster. After that we would use our own pick for a DE like Heyward or Dareus, maybe even Bailey or Crick. Using that pick on Green would be nice too, but I doubt he'd slip into our range unless he gets injured. With DEs, you never know where their stock will end up or how far they'll slide. So my dream would be OLB Robert Quinn from North Carolina and DE Cameron Heyward from THE Ohio State University.
  5. Badluck

    Badluck Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2009
    Messages:
    302
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    5. AJ Green
    32.Allen Bailey
  6. reamer

    reamer Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2009
    Messages:
    920
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Since this is an absolute best case scenario, let's have some fun:

    Most important, we win the Super Bowl. :singing: The Raiders fail abysmally due to systemic ineptitude. We trade back their pick to around #10 in exchange for a high second rounder.

    10) DE/LB Robert Quinn
    32) WR Michael Floyd

    I like some of the other wide receivers better, but I think Floyd has a better chance of falling, plus he seems like a great scheme fit. Moss moves on, and Floyd moves in. Floyd, Price, Edeleman, Tate--that's a good young corp.

    In the second, I'd love to pick up a running back and an offensive lineman, at the very least. I really like Bradford right now. He reminds me quite a bit of Jonathan Stewart.

    You'll notice I didn't list 34 DE; I don't think it's as big of an issue as most of the other posters. Between Weston, Deaderick and Richard, someone should emerge as a viable starter. They're all built well for the position and excel at stopping the run. I could be wrong, but I'd like to see how the season plays out before changing my mind.
  7. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    7,209
    Likes Received:
    87
    Ratings:
    +200 / 2 / -0

    Oh damn, I forgot about Quinn. I want him now! :D
  8. Marqui

    Marqui Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2009
    Messages:
    2,636
    Likes Received:
    26
    Ratings:
    +85 / 0 / -1

    Robert Quinn and an elite Oline prospect.
  9. NePatriots

    NePatriots PatsFans.com Draftnik PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2008
    Messages:
    805
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Good luck finding one of those (Elite O-Line) next year... I don't like the class at all. Gabe Carimi... maybe. Solder, Costanzo, Boling, Reynolds, all have some warts.
  10. reamer

    reamer Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2009
    Messages:
    920
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I am so glad I'm not the only one to feel that way about next year. I don't really like any of the tackle talent. The inside guys are a little more intriguing, but it doesn't look like a deep year. Will be interesting to see how the season plays out.
  11. Marqui

    Marqui Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2009
    Messages:
    2,636
    Likes Received:
    26
    Ratings:
    +85 / 0 / -1

    I should have said a 1st round caliber OT prospect. The guy doesn't have to be the second coming of Walter Jones.
  12. Criptonite

    Criptonite Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2010
    Messages:
    161
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    As of now, who's regarded as the better Pouncey prospect? I know a lot will change come draft time as Mike will be moving to center to replace Maurkice this season. But if Mike had come out in 2010, could he have also been a 1st rounder?
  13. CTHuskies

    CTHuskies Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2007
    Messages:
    188
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    First, Raiders will go 7-9 and Carolina will go 8-8 with the Pats at 10-6 again, so Pats would be picking:

    1-12 New England (from Oakland) - Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh
    1-25 New England - Jared Crick DE Nebraska
    2-52 New England (from Carolina) - Daniel Thomas RB Kansas State
    2-57 New England - OLB Jack Crawford – Penn St.
  14. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2009
    Messages:
    5,437
    Likes Received:
    23
    Ratings:
    +45 / 1 / -0

    #24 Jersey

    AJ Green or Michael Floyd or Baldwin thats it as of right now.
  15. Criptonite

    Criptonite Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2010
    Messages:
    161
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Here's a dream. In the latest DraftTek.com mock, we end up with:

    12) Robert Quinn OLB North Carolina
    19) Mark Ingram RB Alabama
  16. MaineMan

    MaineMan Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2010
    Messages:
    1,895
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    Another solid OLB and a legit #1 WR. The WR doesn't need to be Moss/Rice caliber or the fastest guy in the universe, just someone with good hands, good route-running skills and football smarts who will be successful on the deep routes when it counts.

    In the 2nd round, I'd like to see at least one RB who can pass-protect, catch, average between 4.0 and 4.5 yds per carry and stay healthy for an entire season.

    I won't name any specific players. I mean, I could. I could name about a dozen good prospects, but I guarantee that at least half of them would then be drafted by the Eagles.
  17. borisman

    borisman Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2006
    Messages:
    274
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    If with the Raiders pick we are picking in the 10-12 range and end up with Robert Quinn, then he most likely did not grade out as an 'elite' pass rusher. Those guys don't last that long. They have, but they really don't. So if we pick Quinn at around number 4-5, then I'm happy.

    Even if the Raiders pick is that low, we can still trade one of the 2nd rounders to move up and get a beast. Hell, we can even trade our regular 1st and 2nd and move up for someone like Heyward.

    So this would be an ideal scenario: Quinn at 4 and Heyward at 18.
  18. reamer

    reamer Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2009
    Messages:
    920
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Wait, what?

    On face value, I completely disagree with this claim. Let's do some research, though. I'll look at the past fifteen years (which is probably the upper extent of seasons accrued by pass-rushers still in the league) to see where the first DE or OLB went in each draft, to determine how high the truly "elite" prospects go, and then look at a handful of the best prospects during that time and and see if the are on the top draft list. We'll see which one of us is correct--I've been wrong before, so we'll find out who's right. :)

    2010 draft: Brandon Graham @ 13 overall. Dominant pass-rusher, but many questions about size and pro position. (JPP and Derrick Morgan went 15 and 16, by comparison.) We'll see how they do.

    2009 draft: Technically, Tyson Jackson is a DE, but because he plays in the 34, he's not the kind of edge rusher you're talking about. Nonetheless, I'll list him as a #3 overall pick. The first real pass-rusher was Maybin @ 11 and Orakpo @ 13. Orakpo went to the pro bowl, as did Matthews (26 overall), but Maybin sucked.

    2008 draft: Chris Long went #2 overall. Gholston followed at 6 (haha), and Harvey at 8 (ouch). Combined, they have fewer than 15 sacks in two seasons. Terrible.

    2007 draft: The late Gaines Adams was a #4 overall pick. Jamaal Anderson went at 8, and then Jarvis Moss at 17. Career underachievers.

    2006 draft: Mario Williams goes first overall. Very good career thus far. Kamerion Wimbley comes off the board at 13. Flashed talent, but been inconsistent.

    2005 draft: DeMarcus Ware, perhaps the league's most dominant OLB, doesn't even go top ten. The Cowboys luck out at @ 11. Merriman followed a pick later. Erasmus James finally finds a home at 18.

    2004 draft: Will Smith (not that one--the Saint!) goes 18 overall. Not a single pass-rusher in the top half of the first round.

    2003 draft: Terrel Suggs went 10 overall, and earned the spot. Ty Warren shows up at 13. Not a lot of pass-rushers other than Calvin Pace @ 18, who's put together a solid, if somewhat unremarkable, career.

    2002 draft: Julius Peppers claims the #2 spot, and Dwight Freeny comes in at 11. Two of the best in the league for a long, long time.

    2001 draft: Justin Smith (4), Andre Carter (7), and Jamal Reynolds (10) show up early on. Smith and Carter are steady vets, but haven't exactly attained elite status.

    2000 draft: Courtney Brown emerged as the top dog in the draft, but injuries cut his career short. John Abraham (13) has had several fantastic years.

    1999 draft: Jevon Kearse, who still holds the rookie sack record after a decade of play (14.5 his rookie year), went 16 overall. Ebenezer Ekuban went @ 20.

    1998 draft: Andre Wadsworth (3) has been completely forgotten by league history, while Grant Wistrom (6) and Greg Ellis (8) have had quite a few solid years.

    1997 draft: Peter Boulware (4) was the only high pick, as no other pass-rushers went until 17 and 18. Boulware is the Raven's all time sack leader--good pick.

    1996 draft: Simeon Rice (3), Cedric Jones (5), and Regan Upshaw (12) all went high, but only Rice played up to expectations.

    Okay, that's 15 years. I think that's a large enough sample to look over. Let me post this first, and then edit with analysis; this little composition box is too cramped to look at all the numbers at once. Just wait patiently . . . :)

    - -=- -

    Top 5 pass-rushers: 9 out of 15 (60% of the time).
    Top 10 pass-rushers: 10 out of 15 (66.667% of the time).
    Top 5 rush linebackers: 1 out of 15 (6.667% of the time).
    Top 10 rush linebackers: 3 out of 15 (20% of the time).

    Total players surveyed in 15 years: 36.
    Dominant players: 9 that I count. Feel free to quibble; I'm just going off gut reaction, not anything quantifiable. Still, this is only 25% of players.
    Solid players: 17 by my count. Again, this is pretty arbitrary, so you're welcome to correct me. Less than half of the players listed play up to even moderate expectations.

    Let's also consider that in the past two years, no pass-rushers came off the board in the top ten. Significant trend, in my opinion.

    One last thought. Some of the best pass-rushers of the decade have been second, third, and fourth round guys. I think there's significantly more value there when considering the bust rate of "elite" pass rushers. Furthermore, when we consider the Patriots Super Bowl teams, only Willie was a top-five pick, and he didn't start his career at OLB. The fact of the matter is, elite OLB prospects generally go in the 10 - 16 range.

    I'd welcome more input, though; I am not as familiar with league history as I'd like to be. I'm pretty young (22), and I've only followed football since the year of our first championship, so I'm sure I've overlooked a lot of players and a lot of trends.
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2010
  19. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

    Joined:
    May 30, 2006
    Messages:
    5,043
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    My angle is who won't be on the team next year or in 2012. Here are the current significant FAs:

    2010
    WR
    Moss, Holt
    QB
    Brady
    OT
    Light, Mankins
    RB
    Taylor, Maroney, Morris, Faulk
    S
    McGowan
    K
    Gostkowski

    2011
    OL
    Koppen, Neal
    WR
    Welker, Aiken
    S
    Sanders, Meriweather
    OLB
    Ninkovich


    The biggest positions of need (assuming Brady resigns) is RB, WR, OL, and S.

    My round grades for each position:
    RB: You can find a solid RB in the 2nd round
    WR: The development of Price and Tate will decide whether we need to use the raiders pick on a WR or a later pick
    OL: With Vollmer and Kaczur still around, we may need a OG or C. No need to take one until 2nd round or later.
    S: One of the safeties should get resigned for cheap so the need will be less. Probably 2nd round or later.

    Based on that I'll throw out some names based on their current ranking:
    1a: A.J. Green WR
    1b: Deunta Williams, FS, North Carolina <-- if they think they'll lose meriweather
    2: Stefen Wisniewski, C/G, Penn State
    3: Evan Royster, RB, Penn State

    One interesting note is the 2011 draft is very weak at the RB position. That will be a huge need for Patriots next year. We could see the Pats reach for Mark Ingram in the top 15 depending on how FA goes.
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2010
  20. StraightCashHomey81

    StraightCashHomey81 Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2009
    Messages:
    238
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    The 2010 class was deep in 4-3 DTs and DEs. The 2011 looks to have a lot of Patriots type 3-4 DEs and OLBs.

    Project 1st Round 5-Techniques:
    Cameron Heyward, Ohio State 6’5 288 lbs
    Marvin Austin, North Carolina 6’3 305 lbs
    Allen Bailey, Miami 6’4 288 lbs
    Marcell Dareus, Alabama 6’3 306 lbs*
    Jared Crick, Nebraska 6’6 285 lbs*
    *Juniors

    Projected 1st Round OLBs:
    Robert Quinn, North Carolina 6’5 258 lbs 40: 4.64*
    Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson 6’4 278 lbs 40: 4.64*
    Sam Acho, Texas 6’3 260 lbs 40: 4.68
    Mark Herzlich, Boston College 6’4 238 lbs (room to bulk up) 40: 4.68

    From the early lists I have seen, there seem to be a lot more the 6'3 260/6'4 250 4.6ish 40 guys BB seems to prefer that if they make improvements this year, could be 1st round guys.

    I don't see OT as an option in Round one, because the OT class looks thin. I doubt (maybe just hope) the Patriots would go RB in the 1st round, but maybe for a guy late Ingram if he slipped into late round one.

    I like the top-echelon WRs like Green, Julio Jones, and Michael Floyd, but they will likely all go in the top 10-12 and I'd doubt the Patriots would invest that high of a pick at WR if the OAK pick is that high, given the high bust rate at WR, the recent investment at WR/TE in the draft, and their proclivity for DLs, of which there will likely be someone of value in the top 10-12. Jones and Floyd are intriguing though, given Jones is coached by Saban and Floyd's familiarity with the system after spending time under Weis.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>