What if...Super Bowl XXXVIII (38)

[convertedpatsfan]

"Who the **** is Jake Delhomme?" I must have uttered that like a dozen times at least that night.

We all remember this for Vinatieri's kick at the end, but forget how he was 1/3 for the game, missing a 31-yarder early and getting his second FG attempt blocked.

I went to look something up from this game, but ended up getting sucked into all the strange things that happened. This game was in Houston, and 13 years later, we would win it again in Houston in another memorable game. I hate the Texans, but can't say the city has been bad to us.

There was no scoring in the 1st quarter. And no scoring through the first 11+ minutes of the 2nd quarter either. Vinatieri's miss and block happened, but that was about it for the first 26+ minutes.

Then 24 points in the last 3:05 of the half. Thanks to a Mike Vrabel sack-fumble, we get the ball at their 20, but run into 3rd and 7. Then Brady runs for 12 yards to pick up the first, which was his longest running play of the season.

That keeps the drive alive and we break the ice with a touchdown from Brady to Branch. Vinatieri kicks off deep and we tackle them inside the 15, plus an unnecessary roughness penalty on the Panthers, which pins them deep at the 5. Seems ideal.

Except the Panthers climb out of the hole, then strike for 7 from 39-yards out to Steve Smith. But Tom ****ing Brady responds, driving the team down for another touchdown, this time to Givens with 23 seconds left in the half. That should be that. But then a wonky squib kick from Vinatieri gets picked up around the Panthers' 35-yard line and returned near midfield. A broken tackle on a run play for the Panthers leads to a late FG.

Then no more scoring in the 3rd. The first 4 drives of the quarter between the two teams net 52 yards before the Patriots start driving late in the quarter, finally scoring to open the 4th and go up 21-10. Game, set, match...right?

Except the Panthers would go on to score touchdowns on their next 3 drives, all of them starting from their own 20-yard line or worse. But what gets overlooked in this game is the 2-point conversions. The first of the three was thanks to a ridiculous 31-yard run from DeShaun Foster. The Panthers would go for 2 to cut the lead down to 3 and make it a one-possession game, but they failed. Remember that missing point.

Brady leads the team down the field to the Panthers' 10-yard line, and looks like we'll put the game away except he throws a terrible INT. The Panthers don't get much going at first, then on 3rd and 10, Delhomme buys time in the pocket for 6 seconds before launching a 50-yard strike to Muhsin Muhammed, who takes it the last 35-yards on his own for the touchdown on an 85-yard play. Again they go for 2, and again they fail. The Panthers lead 22-21, but could be up by 3.

Here comes Brady, driving the team down to the goal line, where he throws a touchdown to LB Mike Vrabel. It wasn't the first TD for Vrabel, but his first in the post-season. And now the Patriots go for 2 and get it, with the fake high snap/direct snap to Kevin Faulk, a play they would run successfully in Houston 13 years later. Patriots lead 29-22.

Now you can't go back in time and change one thing and not expect a butterfly effect. But if the Panthers hadn't gone for 2 twice and failed, they could have been up 3. If the Patriots score, there's no incentive to go for 2. Those 3 points would end up being the difference in the game. Vinatieri could have been kicking for the tie, not the win, and who knows how that turns out?

We can't know for certain. All we know is the Cardiac Cats continue to live up to their name, and Delhomme takes them back down the field to tie it up in a minute and a half.

Then Jon Kasay kicks the ball out of bounds. There's no telling what the return would have been like, but that's potentially 10 to 20 yards in field position lost. Considering the kick ended up as a 41-yarder with only 9 seconds to go, it's fair to wonder how different things could have been.

But before that kick, holy ****, Tom ****ing Brady. We overcame an offensive pass interference penalty on this drive, and some of the throws he made were just ridiculous. On 1st and 20, he rolls to his left and throws it in the perfect place for Troy Brown between 2 defenders to pick up 13. He stands in the pocket and gets hit while completing a 4-yard pass to Graham. And on 3rd and 3 from the Panthers 40, he throws a perfect strike to Branch for 17 yards, otherwise we don't even get a chance at that FG.

Then the rest, as you know, is history.



Obviously the last Super Bowl against Atlanta had a much larger comeback than 1 point down to the Panthers, but even in this game, you can see how many plays had to go right to win, and how easily things could have turned out differently.

I forgot how talented that Panthers team was. I think they were overlooked because of Delhomme, but he was a gamer and unafraid of the moment, unlike the higher-profile McNabb a year later. Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammed were an incredible pair of receivers, and they even had poor Patriots punching bag Ricky Proehl as their #3. They had 2 strong runners in Davis and Foster, and that defense was excellent, finishing top 10 in points allowed and a solid pass rush with Mike Rucker and a young Julius Peppers.

For anyone interested, someone posted the highlights here:

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Wow that's a long post

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Wow that's a long post

Yeah...Like I said, I went to look up one thing, but then got caught up in this other thing. Then this other play. And then this guy I forgot. And then an hour of my life was gone...

 

[signbabybrady]

Wait so just to be clear all that was to ask the question if the most clutch kicker in history was going for a tie instead of the lead would it have been different?

Did you see his 45 trader to tie it in the snow game? I think he was good.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Yeah...Like I said, I went to look up one thing, but then got caught up in this other thing. Then this other play. And then this guy I forgot. And then an hour of my life was gone...

haha, it was a good analysis.

there were a ton of "what if plays" from that game. but in general, i am so sick of hearing from haters that AV won our first 3 super bowls. as you said, he missed 2 field goals in SB 38. and in SB 39 he didn't kick a last second field goal to win it.

it's scary to think the pats would likely have lost that game if john fox didn't panic and go for the 2 point conversions. i think phil simms said during the broadcast that you never go for 2 unless you have to. SB51 was a perfect example of BB doing it right.

 

[Tony2046]

Great analysis.

That game went from a grind to a high flying air show in a matter of seconds. It was a great game.

Jake had a few good seasons in the NFL unfortunately injuries caught up to him.

 

[XLIX]

I've always said that if I could change 1 single play per season (and not even, like, make a ridiculous change... just something minor...) then I could give the Patriots 8 Lombardis, or I could take all 5 away.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Wait so just to be clear all that was to ask the question if the most clutch kicker in history was going for a tie instead of the lead would it have been different?

Did you see his 45 trader to tie it in the snow game? I think he was good.

I think you missed the point...

No, it was to say there were a ton of plays besides the final kick. As I mentioned, if Brady doesn't hit Branch on that last 3rd and 3, or that kickoff doesn't go out of bounds, or the 2-point conversions go differently, Vinatieri may not even get the opportunity to try that kick.

And there were a ton of big plays on both sides. This easily could have been a blowout for either team, but both teams continued to make huge plays throughout the game.

I certainly don't deny that Vinatieri was clutch. But I also don't believe he's perfect either. And I'm not really interested into diving into all of that because that's not the point. The real point was that it was a very tumultuous game and is pretty under-rated as far as Super Bowls go.

 

[VectorPrime]

Super Bowl 38 really should be considered one of the, if not THE best Super Bowl ever. Whenever people do lists of Greatest Superbowls its always criminally underrated. And of course you'll always see Super Bowl 42 at number one even though it was a really frustrating and ****ty game. If it weren't for the upset (if the score was reversed for example) it wouldn't even be in the top 20.

 

[TennisBallHead]

In fairness to Fox, I don't think he expected to score three touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Going for 2 at 21-16 isn't the worst decision.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Super Bowl 38 really should be considered one of the, if not THE best Super Bowl ever. Whenever people do lists of Greatest Superbowls its always criminally underrated. And of course you'll always see Super Bowl 42 at number one even though it was a really frustrating and ****ty game. If it weren't for the upset (if the score was reversed for example) it wouldn't even be in the top 20.

It really was a helluva game (that's the short version of the OP!). Thing is, there have been so many great Super Bowls since the turn of the century. This after a long history of mostly tortuously dull games the first 34 or so years. I think any list of "best Super Bowls" will be disproportionately favorable to the last 18 or so games.

 

[Tony2046]

It really was a helluva game (that's the short version of the OP!). Thing is, there have been so many great Suer Bowls since the turn of the century. This after a long history of mostly torturously dull games the first 34 or so years. I think any list of "best Super Bowls" will be disproportionately favorable to the last 18 or so games.

They've been certainly closer in scoring. But the first 16 or 20 SB's were pretty entertaining or at least until they became seemingly one blowout after another. SB 10 was a great game but I may be saying that because I was 10 back then.

 

[Pats Fanatic]

It's still my favorite Super Bowl to watch.
That was a a great Patriots team with the best defense in franchise history. The win also proved that SB 36 a was not a fluke.

 

[Joker]

The Patriots WON XXXVIII...the rest is revisionist "what if/then" goo goo gaa gaa-ism. If you must constantly revisit RECORDED FACT and twist, distort,diminish and demean it until it fits your "fantasy" scenario you may as well lock yourself in your closet with your Madden Lifetime CD and create your own special "what if world".

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

Lots of wild/wacky similarities between 2003 and 2017 Patriots team besides those mentioned:

1. Both records 16:2
2. Both teams suffered first loss of the year to the Bills
3. Both teams were shut out by the Bills.
4. Both teams 2 years removed from winning a Super Bowl

 

[mosslost]

"Who the **** is Jake Delhomme?" I must have uttered that like a dozen times at least that night.

We all remember this for Vinatieri's kick at the end, but forget how he was 1/3 for the game, missing a 31-yarder early and getting his second FG attempt blocked.

I went to look something up from this game, but ended up getting sucked into all the strange things that happened. This game was in Houston, and 13 years later, we would win it again in Houston in another memorable game. I hate the Texans, but can't say the city has been bad to us.

There was no scoring in the 1st quarter. And no scoring through the first 11+ minutes of the 2nd quarter either. Vinatieri's miss and block happened, but that was about it for the first 26+ minutes.

Then 24 points in the last 3:05 of the half. Thanks to a Mike Vrabel sack-fumble, we get the ball at their 20, but run into 3rd and 7. Then Brady runs for 12 yards to pick up the first, which was his longest running play of the season.

That keeps the drive alive and we break the ice with a touchdown from Brady to Branch. Vinatieri kicks off deep and we tackle them inside the 15, plus an unnecessary roughness penalty on the Panthers, which pins them deep at the 5. Seems ideal.

Except the Panthers climb out of the hole, then strike for 7 from 39-yards out to Steve Smith. But Tom ****ing Brady responds, driving the team down for another touchdown, this time to Givens with 23 seconds left in the half. That should be that. But then a wonky squib kick from Vinatieri gets picked up around the Panthers' 35-yard line and returned near midfield. A broken tackle on a run play for the Panthers leads to a late FG.

Then no more scoring in the 3rd. The first 4 drives of the quarter between the two teams net 52 yards before the Patriots start driving late in the quarter, finally scoring to open the 4th and go up 21-10. Game, set, match...right?

Except the Panthers would go on to score touchdowns on their next 3 drives, all of them starting from their own 20-yard line or worse. But what gets overlooked in this game is the 2-point conversions. The first of the three was thanks to a ridiculous 31-yard run from DeShaun Foster. The Panthers would go for 2 to cut the lead down to 3 and make it a one-possession game, but they failed. Remember that missing point.

Brady leads the team down the field to the Panthers' 10-yard line, and looks like we'll put the game away except he throws a terrible INT. The Panthers don't get much going at first, then on 3rd and 10, Delhomme buys time in the pocket for 6 seconds before launching a 50-yard strike to Muhsin Muhammed, who takes it the last 35-yards on his own for the touchdown on an 85-yard play. Again they go for 2, and again they fail. The Panthers lead 22-21, but could be up by 3.

Here comes Brady, driving the team down to the goal line, where he throws a touchdown to LB Mike Vrabel. It wasn't the first TD for Vrabel, but his first in the post-season. And now the Patriots go for 2 and get it, with the fake high snap/direct snap to Kevin Faulk, a play they would run successfully in Houston 13 years later. Patriots lead 29-22.

Now you can't go back in time and change one thing and not expect a butterfly effect. But if the Panthers hadn't gone for 2 twice and failed, they could have been up 3. If the Patriots score, there's no incentive to go for 2. Those 3 points would end up being the difference in the game. Vinatieri could have been kicking for the tie, not the win, and who knows how that turns out?

We can't know for certain. All we know is the Cardiac Cats continue to live up to their name, and Delhomme takes them back down the field to tie it up in a minute and a half.

Then Jon Kasay kicks the ball out of bounds. There's no telling what the return would have been like, but that's potentially 10 to 20 yards in field position lost. Considering the kick ended up as a 41-yarder with only 9 seconds to go, it's fair to wonder how different things could have been.

But before that kick, holy ****, Tom ****ing Brady. We overcame an offensive pass interference penalty on this drive, and some of the throws he made were just ridiculous. On 1st and 20, he rolls to his left and throws it in the perfect place for Troy Brown between 2 defenders to pick up 13. He stands in the pocket and gets hit while completing a 4-yard pass to Graham. And on 3rd and 3 from the Panthers 40, he throws a perfect strike to Branch for 17 yards, otherwise we don't even get a chance at that FG.

Then the rest, as you know, is history.



Obviously the last Super Bowl against Atlanta had a much larger comeback than 1 point down to the Panthers, but even in this game, you can see how many plays had to go right to win, and how easily things could have turned out differently.

I forgot how talented that Panthers team was. I think they were overlooked because of Delhomme, but he was a gamer and unafraid of the moment, unlike the higher-profile McNabb a year later. Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammed were an incredible pair of receivers, and they even had poor Patriots punching bag Ricky Proehl as their #3. They had 2 strong runners in Davis and Foster, and that defense was excellent, finishing top 10 in points allowed and a solid pass rush with Mike Rucker and a young Julius Peppers.

For anyone interested, someone posted the highlights here:

That's a lot of text to go over Super Bowl 38 which most of us have memorized every single play since 2004 ..

 

[mosslost]

It's still my favorite Super Bowl to watch.
That was a a great Patriots team with the best defense in franchise history. The win also proved that SB 36 a was not a fluke.

>>The win also proved that SB 36 a was not a fluke.

They were 16-2 at that point, so they had already proven 36 not to be a fluke.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

That's a lot of text to go over Super Bowl 38 which most of us have memorized every single play since 2004 ..

What can I say, you're a superior human being? Feel better?

I remember it as the last time I went to a Super Bowl party when the Patriots were playing. I found it distracting and difficult to watch the game with so much other ******** going on, so I just started staying home to watch the games.

But hey, I get it, sometimes being a fan is all about pissing on someone else's good memories. Whatever works for you bud.

 

[Pats Fanatic]

>>The win also proved that SB 36 a was not a fluke.

They were 16-2 at that point, so they had already proven 36 not to be a fluke.

Unless They win it all that record mean nothing.

 

[bormio]

The OP is correct and there has never been a better example of why to not go for 2 so soon (although with the long XP now, a struggling kicker changes the equation). Kick the XPs as he should have, AV is lining up at the end to kick a game-tying FG - increasing the pressure on the kicker (in fairness, that did not bother AV). Kasay's kick was awful, but has let Fox escape criticism for his blunder.