Week 7: Pats win, but what about the defense?

[ivanvamp]

Re: If bad QBs do this to the Pats, what will good QBs do?

Rivers had an off year last year, including an 88.7 QB rating.
Romo was at the end of a 3 game dip (70., 86.4, 87.1) when the Patriots played him.
Roethlisberger and company jumped out to an early lead and played it safe after that.
Manning was missing wide receivers (due to injury) in the regular season matchup.
Manning in the playoffs was .... in the playoffs.

None of your examples really applies. The overall point though, that the Patriots need to ride the offense, is perfectly valid. As I pointed out elsewhere, entering yesterday's game, this team was sub .500 in recent years, when scoring less than 30 points.

I guess what I'm saying is that we tend to think that if these crappy QBs are going to go for 300+ yds on NE that a big-time QB will put up Nintendo-like numbers, 450+ yds and 5 scores, something like that. But that just doesn't happen. It seems that, no matter who the QB is, the Pats allow him to go for about 300 yds and they give up 20-30 points. So yes, the offense needs to win the day for them.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The defense seems to let QBs who Bill is not familiar with,almost always have good to great days...you might have to go back 5 years or more to see a QB that has not much film on him or that the Pats haven't played in a while have a bad day against this defense.

Sam Bradford is a QB that has never played the Pats other than preseason,this could be quite a problem again.

But I doubt there is even one fan in here,even the homiest of homers that thinks the defense will make Bradford's day a long one,I think we all expect a 300-350 yard game.....whether that will make a big difference in the final score is to be seen.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: If bad QBs do this to the Pats, what will good QBs do?

I guess what I'm saying is that we tend to think that if these crappy QBs are going to go for 300+ yds on NE that a big-time QB will put up Nintendo-like numbers, 450+ yds and 5 scores, something like that. But that just doesn't happen. It seems that, no matter who the QB is, the Pats allow him to go for about 300 yds and they give up 20-30 points. So yes, the offense needs to win the day for them.

But it does happen. For the past several years, they've been lucky enough not to face the top QBs when they've been playing well and being fully supported (Remember getting Flynn instead of Rogers?). Flacco, good though not elite, lit them up this year. Going back to 2010, the Chargers (Rivers) carved them up and the Patriots were lucky because of all the fumbles. They didn't come close to stopping that Chargers passing game.

And 20-30 points is a huge range so, even taking your position as gospel, it's meaningless.

 

[ivanvamp]

Re: If bad QBs do this to the Pats, what will good QBs do?

But it does happen. For the past several years, they've been lucky enough not to face the top QBs when they've been playing well and being fully supported (Remember getting Flynn instead of Rogers?). Flacco, good though not elite, lit them up this year. Going back to 2010, the Chargers (Rivers) carved them up and the Patriots were lucky because of all the fumbles. They didn't come close to stopping that Chargers passing game.

Flynn in 2010: 24-37, 251 yds, 3 td, 1 int (27 pts)
Rivers in 2010: 34-50, 336 yds, 1 td, 1 int (20 pts)

Flacco had a huge game (382 yds, 3 td, 1 int), but before him, the good QB that really went off was Drew Brees in 2009: 371 yds, 5 td

And 20-30 points is a huge range so, even taking your position as gospel, it's meaningless.

Not really. Because it essentially sets the standard for NE: score 30 and you win. Score in the 20's, and you'll have a dogfight on your hands. Score less than 20 and you'll almost certainly lose. And this seems to be true almost no matter who the opponent is. Not in every single case, but pretty much.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: If bad QBs do this to the Pats, what will good QBs do?

Flynn in 2010: 24-37, 251 yds, 3 td, 1 int (27 pts)
Rivers in 2010: 34-50, 336 yds, 1 td, 1 int (20 pts)

Flacco had a huge game (382 yds, 3 td, 1 int), but before him, the good QB that really went off was Drew Brees in 2009: 371 yds, 5 td

Rivers and the Chargers killed the Patriots in that game. The Patriots were bailed out by fumbles, such as when the rookie left the ball on the field after he touched a knee down, thinking college rules instead of NFL rules. You chose to ignore the impact of the fumbles and how they came about. When you do things like that, you make your analysis worse than irrelevant. You make it misleading.

You're too tied to the stats, and too desirous of ignoring the context. Stats without context can be worse than useless. Without the fumbles in that Chargers game, for example, San Diego might have dropped 35+ on the Patriots.

Not really. Because it essentially sets the standard for NE: score 30 and you win. Score in the 20's, and you'll have a dogfight on your hands. Score less than 20 and you'll almost certainly lose. And this seems to be true almost no matter who the opponent is. Not in every single case, but pretty much.

Yes, really, because it's a 10 point range, for crying out loud.

 

[ivanvamp]

Re: If bad QBs do this to the Pats, what will good QBs do?

Rivers and the Chargers killed the Patriots in that game. The Patriots were bailed out by fumbles, such as when the rookie left the ball on the field after he touched a knee down, thinking college rules instead of NFL rules. You chose to ignore the impact of the fumbles and how they came about. When you do things like that, you make your analysis worse than irrelevant. You make it misleading.

You're too tied to the stats, and too desirous of ignoring the context. Stats without context can be worse than useless. Without the fumbles in that Chargers game, for example, San Diego might have dropped 35+ on the Patriots.



Yes, really, because it's a 10 point range, for crying out loud.

Ok, you win. Because we can point to so many games where good QBs have lit up the Pats for 400+ yards and 35+ points.

Right?

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: If bad QBs do this to the Pats, what will good QBs do?

Ok, you win. Because we can point to so many games where good QBs have lit up the Pats for 400+ yards and 35+ points.

Right?

It's not about me winning. It's about you making an argument that's based on almost no data (almost no quality QBs played in recent years), and you ignoring important context (i.e. fumbles in Chargers game) while doing it.

And Flacco/Baltimore put up 31 points, and over 500 yards, on the Patriots defense, so your snark isn't really appropriate.

 

[ivanvamp]

Re: If bad QBs do this to the Pats, what will good QBs do?

It's not about me winning. It's about you making an argument that's based on almost no data (almost no quality QBs played in recent years), and you ignoring important context (i.e. fumbles in Chargers game) while doing it.

And Flacco/Baltimore put up 31 points, and over 500 yards, on the Patriots defense, so your snark isn't really appropriate.

In any sample, there are going to be outliers. My point, which I think the data supports, is that pretty much whoever the quarterback is, whether he's "good" or "not so good", is going to put up around 300 yards on the Pats' D. Some go for a little more, some for a little less, but very rarely do guys just go completely off to the tune of 400+ yards. It happens, but very rarely.

I'm simply responding to the notion of, "If these sucky QBs can put up 300+ yards on the Pats, imagine what a really great QB will do." As if the really great QBs will go for 450 yards and 4 scores. It just doesn't really happen. The good QBs pretty much have about the same success as the bad QBs do against the Pats' defense.

Do you have any data that suggests otherwise?

 

[SVN]

Maybe its something BB alluded to a few yrs ago - the team has too many yes men and no one challenges BB's schemes or plans - we dont know. I remember before SB against the eagles , we heard the week gameplan was too complex and players werent happy . They complained and romeo listened and they simplified it. Wish i could find a link. Same before the carolina game - BB was too concerned with the carolina running game that he wanted a different set of defensive players dressed up but romeo overruled him saying it will be fine. Is anyone providing this feedback to BB ? The players are too green except vince as are the coaches. He is a great coach but no one is right always.At least on offense we see JMcD fighting with BB on certain situations . Dont know about D, everyone is looking at BB it seems.

 

[ATippett56]

The players are too green except Vince as are the coaches.

I would not consider Vince Wilfork, Rob Ninkovich, Steven Gregory, nor Jerod Mayo "too green". The New England Patriots rush defense has improved from last season with two rookies starting in the front seven.

2012 New England Patriots Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

What is inexcusable is the regression of Kyle Arrington and Patrick Chung in pass defense as well as the inconsistency of Devin McCourty.

 

[SVN]

I would not consider Vince Wilfork, Rob Ninkovich, Steven Gregory, nor Jerod Mayo "too green". The New England Patriots rush defense has improved from last season with two rookies starting in the front seven.

2012 New England Patriots Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

What is inexcusable is the regression of Kyle Arrington and Patrick Chung in pass defense as well as the inconsistency of Devin McCourty.

I meant green in the sense , to challenge the coaching staff about what is working or not working . They arent the same as willie/vrabel/bruschi/. Anyhow it was just my thought...I maybe totally off on it.

 

[Keyser Söze]

The technique displayed by our secondary is an absolute joke. How the **** does our secondary coach have his job?

 

[ATippett56]

I meant green in the sense , to challenge the coaching staff about what is working or not working . They arent the same as willie/vrabel/bruschi/. Anyhow it was just my thought...I maybe totally off on it.

Unfortunately in the salary cap era not every player on the New England Patriots defense will be willing to take a home town discount. With rookie contracts reduced to four years (Brace, Pryor, Chung), the New England Patriots organization will need to determine which defensive players will be retained and which defensive players need to be upgraded.

The following lists the upcoming unrestricted free agents on the New England Patriots defense:

Ron Brace
Myron Pryor
Trevor Scott
Niko Koutouvides
Tracy White
Bobby Carpenter
Kyle Arrington
Marquice Cole
Patrick Chung

 

[Joker]

very valid observation, SVN

I personally tend to accept what BB says carte blanche but today he said something on EEI that gave me pause...he said they don't like to blitz because they do not want to give up big plays on the back end....uh, HUH???????????????....they ARE giving up HUGE playts on the back end WITHOUT the blitz...yesterday the blitz he doesn't like ENDED THE FRIGGIN GAME...yes, somebody on that defense needs to tell BB "coach, we need to ramp up the pressure on this guy"...especially a folding chair like Aintchez.

 

[ATippett56]

I personally tend to accept what BB says carte blanche but today he said something on EEI that gave me pause...he said they don't like to blitz because they do not want to give up big plays on the back end....uh, HUH

That tells me that Bill Belichick does not trust his defensive secondary.

 

[Bostonlove]

We already give up the most 20+ yards play in the NFL. Obviously playing a passive zone is not working, why keep doing it?

Exactly our secondary is giving away the big pass plays anyway why not send the 5th man and possibly get the sick or give up the 20 yards that would've happen anyway. It's getting to the point where offenses shouldn't even bother with a run game because our secondary isn't going to make a play and their QB will have plenty of time as long as the oline can hold a 4 man rush for 6 seconds

 

[SVN]

very valid observation, SVN

I personally tend to accept what BB says carte blanche but today he said something on EEI that gave me pause...he said they don't like to blitz because they do not want to give up big plays on the back end....uh, HUH???????????????....they ARE giving up HUGE playts on the back end WITHOUT the blitz...yesterday the blitz he doesn't like ENDED THE FRIGGIN GAME...yes, somebody on that defense needs to tell BB "coach, we need to ramp up the pressure on this guy"...especially a folding chair like Aintchez.

Not sure if anyone saw the sunday sounds on espn today. BB can be see shouting .."Get pressure up his face! He cant make those throws if you get pressure up his face!" . Even Wilfork said after the game that

“Bill [Belichick] in overtime came to us and said ‘We’re going to need the rush. We’re going to need the rush.’ And I think everybody on that defensive line, or whoever was a part of our pass rushing unit, I think we all understood that we had to get after it nonstop,” Wilfork said. “I was doubled on that play, but I just tried to keep the wheels turning, just in the back of my mind knowing how important it was to get out and get off the field and try to win this ball game. Because our offense put us in a good spot, going down, kicking the field goal and putting us ahead. We knew if we got a stop, the game would be over. And I think the guys responded well.”

Looks like BB wants the pressure to increase with the front 4 but it really is not having the desired effect .

 

[SVN]

That tells me that Bill Belichick does not trust his defensive secondary.

I assume big plays he means those 50 yard pass plays he says the defense doesnt have calls for

 

[SVN]

Something else reiss points out

4. Simms on Patriots pass coverage. Given the struggles the Patriots have had in pass coverage, thought this analysis from Phil Simms was notable: "I believe when the Patriots are better in coverage, it's when they try to play tight man."

May not be entirely true but for FWIW, players from the past have complained when pats move from zone to man between plays or kinda play both in a play and get confused. Iam sure BB and the coaches know this and probably have already simplified this for the rookies but still..

 

[Bostonlove]

SVN there's only so much you can ask out of a front 4 we NEED to start blitzing end of story. Our 4 is good enough to not need extra help clearly as they are all good runstoppers but to go the extra mile they need an extra guy rushing the gaps they create.

At the same time there's only so much you can ask from a secondary being forced to play 100% of these deep passing plays, they're making these deep ball coverage routes because opposing OC's know we cant stop it consistently. If we threw in a blitz On some of these OBVIOUS deep passing downs we can disrupt the play before it develops into a 20 yard gain. Again.