zydecochris
2nd Team Getting Their First Start
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It's probable that KC will get a 4th round comp pick IF Sean Smith moves on to a higher bidder in free agency next spring. We're making assumptions that they don't want to try and keep him, or that they "probably can't keep him." We have no idea as to whether or not that's true.
According to Over The Cap, the Chiefs will be under next year's cap by about 35 million dollars--assuming a modest 7m dollar increase across the board for all 32 teams. At the moment, they only have 115m on the books for a salary cap that's going to be in the range of 150m.
One may argue that KC is much better off trying to reach an extension with him, as he obviously helps their defense/secondary.
As you said, if Belichick offers a 3rd/4th for 2016, they'd essentially be getting the same round pick, only a year earlier, which may make it more attractive. One would have to imagine that he'd be all over it if he thought it could benefit the team. I know as fans, we'd be as happy as anything, as he would almost immediately help our secondary greatly.
I guess I'm on the wrong side of the consensus on this issue. First, let me say that I think that Sean Smith would be a great addition, I just don't think it is likely it will happen, for reasons I've argued earlier. Rather than talking about "whether it would benefit the team", let's focus on Andy Reid and make it personal, and put ourselves in his shoes (always an instructive exercise). Pretend like you are Andy Reid, and I am asking these questions of you, Andy:
1) Andy, you are 2-5. Are you worried about being fired at the end of the year?
2) If the answer is "Yes", Andy, are you more focused on assets that will help you turn things around this year (like Smith) and help you keep your job, or draft picks to be used in future years (when you may have already been fired)?
3) In light of the answers to 1 and 2, Andy, would you trade Sean Smith for a 3/4 in 2016 instead of keeping him for the remainder of the season and getting a 4th round comp pick the year after?
To me the answer seems clear. Of course, with my prognostication record that probably means that word of the Sean Smith trade will be announced tomorrow.
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