This defense compared to years past

[VrabelJr]

I think our Secondary is top 3 in the NFL. I think our LBs are top 5-7. Our DL is bottom 20 unfortunately and a good DL is the secret sauce to a lights out defense.

Having an amazing secondary certainly helps against elite QBs though.

 

[mgteich]

I think our Secondary is top 3 in the NFL. I think our LBs are top 5-7. Our DL is bottom 20 unfortunately and a good DL is the secret sauce to a lights out defense.

Having an amazing secondary certainly helps against elite QBs though.

Collins, Hightower,Casillas (I suppose we could add Ayers)
top 5-7?

 

[VrabelJr]

Collins, Hightower,Casillas (I suppose we could add Ayers)
top 5-7?

I think Collins and Hightower are as a starting duo top 5. That's partially because a few really good LBs are injured this year. Our depth does suck though.

 

[supafly]

Defensive rankings:

2001: pts #6, yds #24
2003: pts #1, yds #7
2004: pts #2, yds #9
2007: pts #4, yds #4
2011: pts #15, yds #31
2014: pts #13, yds #16 (but it feels so much better than that)

You forgot about 2006, which some/many consider to be in the top 5 of the Belichick era.

As we saw in 2011, we can get there without having an insanely dominant defense, but boy would it be nice!

 

[supafly]

Collins, Hightower,Casillas (I suppose we could add Ayers)
top 5-7?

Yeah, the bottom line is that our secondary has been the strong point of this current defense, but I have no idea what some are feeling with the front seven talk?

I think it's above average, but certainly not dominant, especially with Mayo out.

As we've seen though, we don't need to finish in a certain grouping to make the SB, so as long as they continue to show progress we should be in good shape. Obviously, they need to stay healthy due to the lack of depth etc.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Defensive rankings:

2001: pts #6, yds #24
2003: pts #1, yds #7
2004: pts #2, yds #9
2007: pts #4, yds #4
2011: pts #15, yds #31
2014: pts #13, yds #16 (but it feels so much better than that)

Let's add 2006: pts #2, yds #6

As Supafly noted, the 2006 edition is certainly worthy of consideration as one of the best, based on those stats. I don't put too much stock in yards, as that doesn't correlate to winning as well as points (obviously). Over a season, however, it does provide an indication of the shut-down ability of a defense, but it is largely a function of offensive game plan and success. Points can be, too, but in the end, the defense always tries to keep an offense out of the end zone, but when playing from ahead, as the Pats often are, yards are gladly exchanged for time.

Let's take a look at this using some less intuitive stats that try to capture some of those strategy issues. Expected points looks at field position, down, and distance and determines the expected points resulting from a drive for each possible combination, based on every recent game in the NFL (going back to 1999 in this case). Expected points added (EPA) is the change in expected points over a given play. The team EPA stat is the sum of EPA for all the plays in a season. Win probability added (WPA) is the same notion, only it incorporates score and the time remaining in the game. Here are the ranks for the above seasons for those stats for regular season and playoffs:

2001: RS EPA #8, RS WPA #6; PO EPA #5, PO WPA #1
2003: RS EPA #2, RS WPA #2; PO EPA #6, PO WPA #3
2004: RS EPA #7, RS WPA #6; PO EPA #1, PO WPA #1
2006: RS EPA #3, RS WPA #6; PO EPA #8, PO WPA #12 (last)
2007: RS EPA #5, RS WPA #10; PO EPA #10, PO WPA #11
2011: RS EPA #29, RS WPA #27; PO EPA #5, PO WPA #10
2014: RS EPA #11, RS WPA #7

Playoff rankings have a small sample size, so the stats aren't terribly robust, but you can rest assured that if you aren't near the top for WPA, you didn't do good enough. If you believe that defenses win championships and look at the above stats, you'll find it no surprise that the Pats won it all in 2001, 2003, and 2004 and not in 2006, 2007, and 2011.

The regular season stats tend to put this team worthy of comparing to those top 5 defenses that Sup ranked. The playoff drop-offs in 2006 and 2007 illustrate how premature it is to pass judgment now. Still, it feels like the defense is getting better, so there's ample room for hope.

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah, the bottom line is that our secondary has been the strong point of this current defense, but I have no idea what some are feeling with the front seven talk?

I think it's above average, but certainly not dominant, especially with Mayo out.

As we've seen though, we don't need to finish in a certain grouping to make the SB, so as long as they continue to show progress we should be in good shape. Obviously, they need to stay healthy due to the lack of depth etc.

In the last 3 games, playing a lot of nickel, we have allowed 50 rushers for 117 yards (excluding QB runs).
It doesn't get much more dominant than that.

 

[supafly]

In the last 3 games, playing a lot of nickel, we have allowed 50 rushers for 117 yards (excluding QB runs).
It doesn't get much more dominant than that.

I am impressed with their ability to shut down the run lately, but I don't see a comparison yet with the SB winning teams. Just my opinion.

I don't think we're going to look back and talk about Chris Jones, Dominique Easley, etc like they were on par with Warren, Wilfork, and Seymour; but the important thing is that they don't need to reach some imaginary bar that we set as fans, as long as they continue to play tough as they've been.

 

[Ring 6]

I am impressed with their ability to shut down the run lately, but I don't see a comparison yet with the SB winning teams. Just my opinion.

I don't think we're going to look back and talk about Chris Jones, Dominique Easley, etc like they were on par with Warren, Wilfork, and Seymour; but the important thing is that they don't need to reach some imaginary bar that we set as fans, as long as they continue to play tough as they've been.

First Jones and Easley would be more likely compared to Bobby Hamilton and Jarvis Green.
Wilfork split time in his only SB season, and Warren was only a starter for one SB, which is why the 'compare the names approach never works for me'.
The post was directed at you saying the front 7 hasn't been dominant, and in the regard I posted of course they have

 

[Oswlek]

Collins, Hightower,Casillas (I suppose we could add Ayers)
top 5-7?

Totally agree. And assuming decent health, I think Vince, Dom, Branch, Siliga, Nink and Chandler have to be considered no worse than an average DL. Hell, I even like what I've seen out of Moore.

 

[supafly]

First Jones and Easley would be more likely compared to Bobby Hamilton and Jarvis Green.
Wilfork split time in his only SB season, and Warren was only a starter for one SB, which is why the 'compare the names approach never works for me'.
The post was directed at you saying the front 7 hasn't been dominant, and in the regard I posted of course they have

I don't see the current front seven on par with the SB winning teams, at least not yet.

Pointing out the fact that the '03 and '04 teams completely dominated in the front seven is a valid point. In my opinion, we are not there yet. It's really that simple.

 

[supafly]

Totally agree. And assuming decent health, I think Vince, Dom, Branch, Siliga, Nink and Chandler have to be considered no worse than an average DL. Hell, I even like what I've seen out of Moore.

"No worse than average" just doesn't sound to me like the dominating front sevens of the SB winning years.

That said, I am very happy with our current defense and think they can make quite a run.

As noted multiple times, we don't "need" to meet any standard that has been previously set, and the secondary of 2014 is probably the best ever (IMO).

 

[Ring 6]

I don't see the current front seven on par with the SB winning teams, at least not yet.

Pointing out the fact that the '03 and '04 teams completely dominated in the front seven is a valid point. In my opinion, we are not there yet. It's really that simple.

If it were that simple, why were you name dropping as if that proves something?
The front 7 has been as dominant the last 3 games as we have seen. That is the simple part. I never said more or less than that.

 

[Oswlek]

"No worse than average" just doesn't sound to me like the dominating front sevens of the SB winning years.

That said, I am very happy with our current defense and think they can make quite a run.

Nor was it meant to. But the trend is very good.

 

[supafly]

If it were that simple, why were you name dropping as if that proves something?
The front 7 has been as dominant the last 3 games as we have seen. That is the simple part. I never said more or less than that.

I'm not really sure where you're going with this?

The point was that the 2014 front seven is not on the same plane as the front sevens from SB winning years.

Pointing out strong play from the past 21 days does not change that. I understand that you don't care for the "name dropping" comparison, but if you don't feel that guys like Easley and Chris Jones are comparable, then feel free to pick your own players on the DL and substitute them for mine. Either way, there is no comparison whatsoever.

 

[supafly]

Nor was it meant to. But the trend is very good.

Absolutely.

It's great to see a tough defense again.

 

[Froob]

I disagree. It's another case whee statistics out of context don't tell the story IMO. Our offense immediately forced other teams into being one dimensional and allowed our defense to play loose (how cautious do you need to be when your O is dropping a 40 spot on a regular basis)?

All that was required of that defense was to not screw up and they had lots of veterans, the same veterans who had looked out of gas in previous, more competitive seasons.

When every opponent is under pressure to score in the 30s and 40s, it distorts their offense and makes playing defense easier.

While true, the defense did shut down the chargers and held the giants to 17 on days the Pats offense sucked. Defense nearly got them a super bowl in the end.

 

[supafly]

While true, the defense did shut down the chargers and held the giants to 17 on days the Pats offense sucked. Defense nearly got them a super bowl in the end.

People love to throw out the "skewed stats" fact, but when you look and see that 15/19 games were held to 237 passing yds or less that year (even less than yesterday's dominant performance) with a ton of garbage time, it really puts things in perspective.

They were pretty good.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not really sure where you're going with this?

The point was that the 2014 front seven is not on the same plane as the front sevens from SB winning years.

Pointing out strong play from the past 21 days does not change that.

No. The point was that you said:

Yeah, the bottom line is that our secondary has been the strong point of this current defense, but I have no idea what some are feeling with the front seven talk?

I think it's above average, but certainly not dominant, especially with Mayo out.

and I said

In the last 3 games, playing a lot of nickel, we have allowed 50 rushers for 117 yards (excluding QB runs).
It doesn't get much more dominant than that.

and for some reason you decided to disagree with me by talking about the SB teams.

 

[Oswlek]

People love to throw out the "skewed stats" fact, but when you look and see that 15/19 games were held to 237 passing yds or less that year (even less than yesterday's dominant performance) with a ton of garbage time, it really puts things in perspective.

They were pretty good.

Absolutely, but they weren't on the level that 2003-2004 were, even if many of the stat lines were similar. I'd contend they weren't on the level that this group is playing at, either.

But I'm firmly entrenched in the "skewed stats" crowd.