Yeah, it's absurdly early. But the 2012 #1 overall pick shapes up to be one of the most coveted in history. First off you have the bona fide bluest-of-blue-chips QB prospect who stands far above others in his class. Then you have the new rookie pay structure which should leave you with the cash to build around him. And if think you already have your QB of the future, you should be able to open up a Herschel Walker-style bidding war for Luck. So I can't help but be curious -- who are our early candidates? Eleven teams currently stand at 0-4 or 1-3: Miami Jacksonville Indianapolis Denver Kansas City Philadelphia Minnesota Carolina Seattle Arizona St. Louis Whose suckitude runs deep enough to give them a legitimate shot? Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis may be legitimately sucky, but here's the rub: they have to play four games against one another. When the 49ers are the class of your division, it's very, very hard to put together a horrific record. Philadelphia simply has too much talent. As much as we all have enjoyed the schadenfreude so far, they're not going to keep losing at this pace. The remaining seven: - Miami really isn't that bad a team, but with no QB and a tough division wins are tough to come by. They do have some winnable out-of-division games. - Jax has a surprisingly scary schedule ahead, but with a decent-looking rookie QB they have some hope of improving -- plus they have 1 win already and 2 Colts games to look forward to. - Indy is in total meltdown, looking lost and disspirited. They do have 4 games remaining against the other teams on our current losing list. - Denver isn't terribly talented but they've generally been in their games to the end, they play a weak division schedule, and they already won 1. - KC is a hot mess right now, with an all-star IR roster and dissension in the ranks. It could get ugly, but there's still time to right the ship. E.g. if they dump Haley, this team could easily rally strong behind a new coach. - Minnesota is very bad. Why, exactly? They're not nearly as big a mess as a lot of these teams and have been in all of their games, but they're in a killer division with only a tour through the AFCW to lighten their schedule the rest of the way. - Carolina has looked about as good as an 0-4 team can look. They should improve. The huge challenge: they face only 2 weak teams they entire rest of the way. Conclusion: Right now Indy is in the driver's seat, with the top threats Miami and any AFCW team that manages to make the rest of the division look good.