The Official Suck for Luck Watch (merged)

patchick · Oct 6, 2011

Yeah, it's absurdly early. But the 2012 #1 overall pick shapes up to be one of the most coveted in history. First off you have the bona fide bluest-of-blue-chips QB prospect who stands far above others in his class. Then you have the new rookie pay structure which should leave you with the cash to build around him. And if think you already have your QB of the future, you should be able to open up a Herschel Walker-style bidding war for Luck.

So I can't help but be curious -- who are our early candidates? Eleven teams currently stand at 0-4 or 1-3:

Miami
Jacksonville
Indianapolis
Denver
Kansas City
Philadelphia
Minnesota
Carolina
Seattle
Arizona
St. Louis

Whose suckitude runs deep enough to give them a legitimate shot? Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis may be legitimately sucky, but here's the rub: they have to play four games against one another. When the 49ers are the class of your division, it's very, very hard to put together a horrific record.

Philadelphia simply has too much talent. As much as we all have enjoyed the schadenfreude so far, they're not going to keep losing at this pace. The remaining seven:

- Miami really isn't that bad a team, but with no QB and a tough division wins are tough to come by. They do have some winnable out-of-division games.
- Jax has a surprisingly scary schedule ahead, but with a decent-looking rookie QB they have some hope of improving -- plus they have 1 win already and 2 Colts games to look forward to.
- Indy is in total meltdown, looking lost and disspirited. They do have 4 games remaining against the other teams on our current losing list.
- Denver isn't terribly talented but they've generally been in their games to the end, they play a weak division schedule, and they already won 1.
- KC is a hot mess right now, with an all-star IR roster and dissension in the ranks. It could get ugly, but there's still time to right the ship. E.g. if they dump Haley, this team could easily rally strong behind a new coach.
- Minnesota is very bad. Why, exactly? They're not nearly as big a mess as a lot of these teams and have been in all of their games, but they're in a killer division with only a tour through the AFCW to lighten their schedule the rest of the way.
- Carolina has looked about as good as an 0-4 team can look. They should improve. The huge challenge: they face only 2 weak teams they entire rest of the way.

Conclusion: Right now Indy is in the driver's seat, with the top threats Miami and any AFCW team that manages to make the rest of the division look good.

patsfaninpa · Oct 6, 2011

My pick at the quarter pole is Jacksonville. Gabbert might be a good qb down the road. But, he's in over his head. JonesDrew might win a couple of games. But, teams are going to put 8 in the box and shut him down now. Any injury to him and I can't see them winning a game. I say Indy beats them 2x.

everlong · Oct 6, 2011

Rookie cap is going to make this really interesting.

Philadelphia is obviously going to win some games starting this weekend (Buffalo

) so they really don't belong on the list.

I don't want luck in the division so I hope it's not Miami on the chance the kid lives up to the hype.

The Colts are interesting. Assuming Manning is returning do you take Luck and groom him or with the new rookie cap do you trade out for a boat load of picks to set yourself up for the next 4 year to take another shot while Manning, Wayne, Freeney and Mathis still have wheels? You could still take a QB with the acquired picks later to groom a player.

Although I don't think any of them will end up with the worst record the Vikes, Rams and Panthers all just drafted young QBs high in the draft so they would be sellers and make out really well. Additionally Arizona traded for a QB so they likely would be sellers.

Jax is a prime candidate for worst record and just drafted a QB high. They would be sellers.

KC would put him under Cassel I would think.

Seattle almost looks like they were taking the year off in bringing in Tavaris Jackson just so they could get Luck. Along with the Jags and Broncos they are my favorites to win the lottery.

ctpatsfan77 · Oct 6, 2011

patchick said:
Yeah, it's absurdly early. But the 2012 #1 overall pick shapes up to be one of the most coveted in history. First off you have the bona fide bluest-of-blue-chips QB prospect who stands far above others in his class. Then you have the new rookie pay structure which should leave you with the cash to build around him. And if think you already have your QB of the future, you should be able to open up a Herschel Walker-style bidding war for Luck.

But it's better than what prompted one of your previous Luck posts.

patchick said:
That story just doesn't plain doesn't make sense. They start off by saying how Belichick is renowned for stockpiling picks year after year and NOT spending them on high selections, and that they just took the highest-drafted QB of Belichick's tenure -- a guy with franchise potential, and that Brady is signed through 2014. And from that, they conclude that the Patriots may be planning to spend their entire draft to trade up for a QB next year?

That's pretty much "it walks like a duck, it talks like a duck, it must be asparagus."

UofApatsfan · Oct 9, 2011

People in Arizona have gotten so fed up with Whisenhunt and his stubborn desire to mimic the Steelers in every which way that he might be fired midseason. If that happens, the Cardinals are a prime candidate in the suck for Luck race. As long as Whiz is coach he's gonna be fighting for his life with a QB he's invested his job in, but if the Cards drop to 1-7 or 1-8 and Whiz is given the pink slip midseason, the new coach will have no allegiance to Kevin Kolb and the players won't have anything to play for.

NePatriots · Oct 9, 2011

Here is the current 2012 NFL Draft Order - with SOS tiebreakers.

ctpatsfan77 · Oct 10, 2011

NePatriots said:
Here is the current 2012 NFL Draft Order - with SOS tiebreakers.

One minor point—did you treat the Colts as #1 b/c they have 5 Ls, or because they have the worst SOS? Remember that all teams play the same # of games at the end of the season, so "# of wins" is essentially identical to "win %age", but right now, they're not (b/c some teams have played 5 games and others 4).

NePatriots · Oct 10, 2011

ctpatsfan77 said:
One minor point—did you treat the Colts as #1 b/c they have 5 Ls, or because they have the worst SOS? Remember that all teams play the same # of games at the end of the season, so "# of wins" is essentially identical to "win %age", but right now, they're not (b/c some teams have played 5 games and others 4).

Either way the Colts were #1, as the Rams/Dolphins have a slightly more difficult SOS.

Ochmed Jones · Oct 10, 2011

patchick said:
Conclusion: Right now Indy is in the driver's seat, with the top threats Miami and any AFCW team that manages to make the rest of the division look good.

The worst case scenario is if Luck goes to Miami.

If this offseason Brees signs with the Jets, and Miami secures Luck via the draft, our division will be stacked with QB's.

Too bad we got the NFL's worst defense! Ouch !!!!

NinjaZX6R · Oct 11, 2011

When will the NFL institute a draft lottery for the top 10 picks?

PatsFanStnfrd · Oct 12, 2011

"Suck for Luck" sucks in my book.

I prefer discussing the teams playing for the "Luck Bowl" vs. those for the Super Bowl.

Having said that, Indy is the one most likely to "control" its destiny to land Luck. Irsay has loudly proclaimed his desire for Luck comparing him to Manning in 1998. And the rookie pay scale means that Luck will be paid $26 million or so for 4 years -- affordable to be Manning's backup and future franchise star.

The integrity of the game will be called into question as entire organizations go through the convulsion of justifying losing games. Top players mildly injured will be held back, back ups will play listlessly and coaches will find security in carrying out the owner's implicit (or explicit) desire for finding the QB who could take the franchise to the playoffs over the next two decades.

Goodell where are you? Why not put an end to such strong incentive by instituting the draft lottery -- at least among the 5 worst teams.

patsfaninpa · Oct 12, 2011

I'm hoping St. Louis ends up with the top pick. I don't think they take him. Keeps him out of Indy. And, if they traded the pick to Miami. The Fish will have to give up an arm and a leg. The old Lawrence Welk trade. A one , two. A one, two, three.

Ochmed Jones · Oct 13, 2011

PatsFanStnfrd;2734510Goodell where are you?[/QUOTE said:
Why are you calling for Goddell to do anything? If it does not concern the Jets, he is not interested. The man wears Jets PJ's to bed at night.

TheSolderKing · Oct 23, 2011

The SUCK for LUCK saga (week 7 leaders)

DENVER wins in OT

and the MIGHTY Tim Tebow rallies a comeback and sends it into OT FTW

INDY plays NO tonight. Will our New Orleans Draft pick get better?
Or will NO beat INDY?

Will MIA STL and INDY remain tied after today?

STL is beating Dallas by 7 middle/late in the 1st quarter

ctpatsfan77 · Oct 23, 2011