The Defensive Front Seven

[ATippett56]

Defensive End
Ninkovich, Jones, Buchanan, Moore, Bequette. Johnson

Defensive Tackle
Wilfork, Siliga (ERFA), Jones, Easley, Vellano, Johnson

Linebacker
Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Fleming, Skinner, Martin, Gordon, Morris

http://www.patriots.com/team/roster.html

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/8586/rufus-johnson

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/4363/antonio-Johnson

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...4777987/patriots-sign-three-more-to-contracts

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-.../4778020/breaking-down-new-patriots-contracts

 

[BTTA]

I'm not optimistic about our LB's ability to stay healthy. And the list of guys we want on the field is only three players deep. Mayo has had muscular injuries two years in a row that, if we were evaluating him as a player to draft or sign as a FA, would give us severe pause. So to me, this is an area of high priority, even though at the end of the season Hightower and Collins were playing very well.

 

[varjao]

I really enjoyed what Ayers and Casillas brought to the team. Branch too.

I would sign all of them if possible, but my priority would be in the order above.

Casillas is a backup but he played a lot of snaps against the Bills and for me he can fill in any sunday as part of the rotation, also he is an above average ST and BB values that.

I think Jones and Siliga are on the cheap right? We can maybe roll another season with them or the Joe Vellano's of life, but that has a consequence, Wilfork must stay. I really want BB to draft a genuine pass rusher, I think Ninko reached his prime in the past 2 seasons, he's been regularly good, he's a hard worker and a fan favorite but he's not young and I think in the last 2 seasons he played too much, we might start to see a drop off. Since he can also play LB maybe drafting a DE would allow BB to mix a lot and have different packages. As Seattle showed in 2013, fresh pass rushers are never enough, we are lacking this capability of bullying O-Lines and QB's all the time., that would make this defense the #1 in NFL. I recognize we sacked the QB in crucial moments this season, different from the others, including a important sack in the SB but we can definitely improve in that area.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I really enjoyed what Ayers and Casillas brought to the team. Branch too.

I would sign all of them if possible, but my priority would be in the order above.

Casillas is a backup but he played a lot of snaps against the Bills and for me he can fill in any sunday as part of the rotation, also he is an above average ST and BB values that.

I think Jones and Siliga are on the cheap right? We can maybe roll another season with them or the Joe Vellano's of life, but that has a consequence, Wilfork must stay. I really want BB to draft a genuine pass rusher, I think Ninko reached his prime in the past 2 seasons, he's been regularly good, he's a hard worker and a fan favorite but he's not young and I think in the last 2 seasons he played too much, we might start to see a drop off. Since he can also play LB maybe drafting a DE would allow BB to mix a lot and have different packages. As Seattle showed in 2013, fresh pass rushers are never enough, we are lacking this capability of bullying O-Lines and QB's all the time., that would make this defense the #1 in NFL. I recognize we sacked the QB in crucial moments this season, different from the others, including a important sack in the SB but we can definitely improve in that area.

I'd love to keep Branch, Ayers and Casillas too. But, we prob can't afford them and keep VW. My guess is that BB releases VW based on previous decisions.

I think we slow play Vereen.

It's all about extending Revis and signing McCourty. Those two moves and a couple of simple re-structures gives BB the opportunity to put another championship team together.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

What is the obsession with Casillas?? Isnt he just a special teamer? The only time I remember him getting defensive snaps was when Hightower went down.

Yes, and he did better than any other sub LB we have had in recent memory. While he is on the small side, he was solid, if not a force, against the run. He's the Pat's fastest LB, and looked downright good in pass coverage - sniffing-out and blowing-up a screen behind the LOS against Buffalo at one point. Some of it may be the result of BB scheming to protect a backup, but he did his job well (9 tackles against Buffalo). He's also a top STer. To me, he's the top FA in the front seven (although reworking Mayo and Wilfork are higher priorities.)

 

[billdog3484]

More recently, I keep thinking a Richard Seymour type player (yes, I know they don't grow on trees) would be a player who may help push this defense over the top. Are there any available in the draft or Free Agency?

I apologize as I need to get up to speed with the prospects and available free agents.

So you think a hall of fame caliber d lineman will help. Lol

 

[ausbacker]

So you think a hall of fame caliber d lineman will help. Lol

I expressly stated the type of player @billdog3484. You know, the hybrid DT/DE who can hold up against the run and rush the passer when required.

Seymour was a generational talent. Those types of players aren't found in every draft thus my question about the draft.

 

[mgteich]

I expressly stated the type of player @billdog3484. You know, the hybrid DT/DE who can hold up against the run and rush the passer when required.

Seymour was a generational talent. Those types of players aren't found in every draft thus my question about the draft.

We are limited in the quality of player that we can get anywhere near #32, or that Belichick is willing to pay for in free agency. Belichick drafted a defensive lineman early last year (actually two) and will likely try again this year.

Easley is supposed to be an inside pass rusher. He replaced Kelly in that role.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, and he did better than any other sub LB we have had in recent memory. While he is on the small side, he was solid, if not a force, against the run. He's the Pat's fastest LB, and looked downright good in pass coverage - sniffing-out and blowing-up a screen behind the LOS against Buffalo at one point. Some of it may be the result of BB scheming to protect a backup, but he did his job well (9 tackles against Buffalo). He's also a top STer. To me, he's the top FA in the front seven (although reworking Mayo and Wilfork are higher priorities.)

Casillas is a fine player for what it is likely to cost to re-sign him. We need at least one backup at LB who can play special teams.

Ayers will be much more expensive, but he is able to start at DE (in case of injury) as well as being a backup linebacker, so he's worth the extra money.

 

[mgteich]

I think Jones and Siliga are on the cheap right? We can maybe roll another season with them or the Joe Vellano's of life, but that has a consequence, Wilfork must stay.

I don't think that Siliga and Jones are related to Wilfork staying. They are valuable backup or rotational DT's. The player who may stay or not is Branch. Also, we are likely to draft a DT in any case.

 

[Ivan]

DT-Wilfork is the only really good player in this group, the rest are jags. Wilfork played over 75% of the defensive snaps despite the fact that they spend the majority of the time in sub packages. Branch and Siliga are jags, and Chris Jones while decent is not the guy you base your interior DL around. You don't just throw away your best player on any unit so reaching a deal with Wilfork is crucial imo. And if they have to pay him the full amount you do it because overall they are spending very little at DT. If Easely comes back strong they could end up with a very good interior DL that has depth and flexibility.


DE-Ostensibly Chandler Jones and Ninkovich are the starters but they spend so much time in sub packages that you have to look at their LBers as a part of the package, and with Collins and Hightower there is quality depth for the sub packages but Buchanon and Moore will have to develop to have enough depth for a 4-3 base. If they can retain Ayers it would help with their overall depth at both LB and DE.

LB-I think Mayo will restructure his deal after missing the majority of the past two seasons. If he can return to form they will have a top 3 LB unit. Hopefully Casillas is back to provide some depth at LB and on the ST unit.

Overall they are in good shape on their front seven with only two back ups as free agents and they can add to the units in the draft. I would love to see Wilfork restructure but would simply pay him if he is not willing to do so, they don't have anyone capable of replacing him and he is an integral part of their core leadership. I really believe Mayo will restructure as Wilfork did last off season to an incentive laden deal that frees up 3-5 million off the cap.

 

[Fencer]

What is the obsession with Casillas?? Isnt he just a special teamer? The only time I remember him getting defensive snaps was when Hightower went down.

A guy who plays competently as an injury reserve is a lot different from one who's a disaster in the role.

Casillas is not just a special-teamer; he's also a backup.

 

[Oswlek]

Branch and Siliga are jags, and Chris Jones while decent is not the guy you base your interior DL around.

If you define "JAG" as "good player, but not elite" I might agree. Using the more common, "Just Another Guy" then we have completely different views on these players. Siliga is a fine DT, and a starter on most teams. Jones/Branch are guys wh0 fill specific roles that are good enough that your are comfortable with them as backups/rotational players.

Frankly, if all return and Easley is the guy who played against Chicago all year, NE has one of the deapest, most versatile defensive lines in the entire league. I'd still be fine snagging one early since they need to start transitioning from Vince, but it's not a disaster even if NE just goes the UDFA route.

 

[SacPete1]

The interior pass rush is the obvious area for improvement but I don't see a DT drafted at 32 being the answer. The big bodies generally aren't pass rushers and if they are, none of them are around at 32.
I think improving the 3rd down pass rush with specific skill sets is a better starting point. Easley if healthy should provide that and he demonstrated such this season.
Don't sleep on Zach Moore either. He's a project I realize but his measurables and athleticism project well. This off-season could define his career. Seeing him and Easley inside on 3rd and long could be scary.

At 32, assuming they stay there, I would just as soon see the highest ranked player on their board and ideally someone that projects to play 3 downs. As to preferred position, it will depend on how free agency unfolds.

 

[Oswlek]

One of my top priorities this off season is to add a DE or 2 that can significantly reduce Jones and Ninko's snaps over the course of the year.

I'm less high on Ayers than most. The steep fall off of his snaps once Jones came back is telling to me.

Even if we discount Ayers, Cunningham has shown some flashes, Moore was given a lot more snaps than I expected, Easley can pick up some slack and Mayo's return could free up the other LBs for rush duties. It would be to add, but it isn't as high a priority for me. If the team has insight that Moore/Cunningham are JAGs and Mayo may not return, then it shoots up quickly.

As for Ayers, I wouldn't overlook the fact that the Patriots ended the year with some run heavy game plans or the fact that Ayers was on the field for Seattle's final drive. He seems like a classic 3 year $8mm guy that NE loves to have on their roster. He's also the perfect mixture of experience and youth.

My third off season priority is to upgrade the talent on the interior offensive line.

That's my top priority. I wasn't nearly as worried about Kline as everyone else (it seemed to me that the OL struggles against the Jets were more due to the team approaching it as a glorified preseason game than legitimate problems) but I would much rather the top backup be Wendell caliber.

This is a draft we don't need volume, we need quality.

It's also the type of draft where Bill has the capital to reignite the rolling first rounder deal. The league appears to have caught on, and #32 isn't quite as appetizing as #21, but if someone offers a future first I bet Bill jumps all over that, even if the kicker is just a 5th rounder.

 

[Ring 6]

The focus, as it should be, is on bringing back Revis and McCourty, and giving us one of the best two secondaries in the NFL. IMHO, Mayo will stay (with some kind of restructure or not), giving us on of the bed two or three linebacker corps in the NFL. Think about that for awhile!
===================================
DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN (with 3-4 openings)
DE: Ninkovich, Jones, Moore, Buchanan
DT: Siliga, Easley, Jones, draftee
LB: Mayo, Hightower, Collins

WHAT ARE THE POSSIBILITIES AND PRIORITIES?
Where would you spend money to improve the above 11 front seven?
1) We need a linebacker/STer or two, one of which could play defensive reps as needed. The candidates are AYERS, CASILLAS and WHITE.
2) We could use a quality backup DE who could start if needed. One candidate is AYERS.
3) We need a run-stopping DT or two. One is probably a draftee. This is good for the future and saves cap money. Candidates are WILFORK and BRANCH.

ANALYSIS
1) One of the players is probably a low-salary special teamer like White. However, for a little bit more we could have CASILLAS.
2) AYERS is a backup DE and OLB. He also can be the "starter" in the base. he has moved ahead of Casillas in that role.
3) BRANCH has done very well and should be good for a 3-year relatively inexpensive contract.
4) And then there is WILFORK who is owed a roster bonus before March 11th and will earn over $8M if there is no change in compensation.

QUESTION 1: How much is Casillas worth, compared to say White?

QUESTION 2: How much more is Wilfork worth over the next two years compared to Branch? We should be drafting a youngster to eventually start opposite Easley. Siliga and Jones are fine backups.

QUESTION 3: How much is a backup DE worth? What if Ninkovich or Jones can't play 90% of the defensive reps. Should we expect Moore or Buchanan to start? How much is Ayers worth as a backup DE and OLB backup ?

THE DEFAULT
is to re-sign White, Casillas and keep Wilfork at his present compensation. Is there a better plan for these three positions?

MY GUESS
is that we'll re-sign Casillas in any case. I list White, but obviously the choice could be another special teamer or a LB draftee. That doesn't change the choice before us much.
======================
OPTION 1: Wilfork and White

OPTION 2: Branch and White

OPTION 3: Branch and Ayers

OPTION 4: Ayers and White

Personally, I think that AYERS add a lot to the defense, being a key backup at both DE and LB. If there are no injuries, re-signing him will look like a waste. After all, he'll get very few reps with everyone healthy: Ninkovich, Jones, Mayo, Hightower and Collins. However, if there is an injury to any of these, Ayers will be valuable. Also, signing Ayers to a long-term deal provides some protection for the future if we cannot re-sign both Hightower and Collins, or if Mayo does come back enough to be worth top dollar in 2015 or 2016 or in 2017.

If we are going to spend more than $9M on two front seven players, one option is Wilfork and White. I prefer Ayers and Branch. I also suspect that there would be $3M of cap savings. The cap savings wouldn't be an issue if Wilfork were willing to take a $3M cut in pay.

WHAT DO YOU ALL THINK?

How is Wilfork an 'option'?
He outplayed the expectations they had when they gave him this contract extension. He is going nowehere.

Ayers isn't going to stay on a team that he gets only a handful of snaps on when Mayo is on IR. He will want to compete for a starting job. He cannot do that here. I'd love to keep him, but he will not be wlling to stay.

 

[mgteich]

How is Wilfork an 'option'?
He outplayed the expectations they had when they gave him this contract extension. He is going nowehere.

Ayers isn't going to stay on a team that he gets only a handful of snaps on when Mayo is on IR. He will want to compete for a starting job. He cannot do that here. I'd love to keep him, but he will not be wlling to stay.

Wilfork is an option because there is a decision to be made. If you think that we're paying Wilfork $8.5, then there is no option other than Wilfork's choice to take a voluntary pay cut or not.

For me, there is no option regarding Mayo. For you, there is no option regarding Wilfork. We have a difference of opinion.

 

[mgteich]

Ayers isn't going to stay on a team that he gets only a handful of snaps on when Mayo is on IR. He will want to compete for a starting job. He cannot do that here. I'd love to keep him, but he will not be wlling to stay.

Ayers came off the scrap heap to be valuable as a backup. If he doesn't want to play for us for $3M or $4M, that's fine. Perhaps, he will get significantly more elsewhere. I suspect not. But you are indeed correct, he might start for a weaker team. I suspect that you don't want to pay Ayers that kind of money. BTW, Ayers played a lot when Jones was injured.

We discuss this each year. How much is a backup DE/OLB worth? We have our 5 "starters": Ninkovich, Jones, Mayo, Collins, Hightower. Perhaps none will have significant injuries this year and can play 95% of the reps when they are healthy. I think that Ayers is reasonable insurance. I can understand that others may not be willing to pay for insurance and count on Moore and Buchanan, or perhaps Casillas.

 

[Ring 6]

Wilfork is an option because there is a decision to be made. If you think that we're paying Wilfork $8.5, then there is no option other than Wilfork's choice to take a voluntary pay cut or not.

For me, there is no option regarding Mayo. For you, there is no option regarding Wilfork. We have a difference of opinion.

Wilforks contract was jut redone last year and he outplayed expectations.
We have no one who can come close to doing what he does at DT.

 

[Ring 6]

Ayers came off the scrap heap to be valuable as a backup. If he doesn't want to play for us for $3M or $4M, that's fine. Perhaps, he will get significantly more elsewhere. I suspect not. But you are indeed correct, he might start for a weaker team.

By the end of the season he barely saw the field. I cannot justify paying him 3 to 4mill to sit on the bench playing 5 snaps a week. I cannot see him want to stay with the scarce playing time he is getting.
Your scenario stinks for both the player and team, Ayers never plays, and the Pats pay him a lot of money to do so.
I don't think I want a player who would be content sitting the bench.