The Defensive Front Seven

[mgteich]

The focus, as it should be, is on bringing back Revis and McCourty, and giving us one of the best two secondaries in the NFL. IMHO, Mayo will stay (with some kind of restructure or not), giving us on of the bed two or three linebacker corps in the NFL. Think about that for awhile!
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DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN (with 3-4 openings)
DE: Ninkovich, Jones, Moore, Buchanan
DT: Siliga, Easley, Jones, draftee
LB: Mayo, Hightower, Collins

WHAT ARE THE POSSIBILITIES AND PRIORITIES?
Where would you spend money to improve the above 11 front seven?
1) We need a linebacker/STer or two, one of which could play defensive reps as needed. The candidates are AYERS, CASILLAS and WHITE.
2) We could use a quality backup DE who could start if needed. One candidate is AYERS.
3) We need a run-stopping DT or two. One is probably a draftee. This is good for the future and saves cap money. Candidates are WILFORK and BRANCH.

ANALYSIS
1) One of the players is probably a low-salary special teamer like White. However, for a little bit more we could have CASILLAS.
2) AYERS is a backup DE and OLB. He also can be the "starter" in the base. he has moved ahead of Casillas in that role.
3) BRANCH has done very well and should be good for a 3-year relatively inexpensive contract.
4) And then there is WILFORK who is owed a roster bonus before March 11th and will earn over $8M if there is no change in compensation.

QUESTION 1: How much is Casillas worth, compared to say White?

QUESTION 2: How much more is Wilfork worth over the next two years compared to Branch? We should be drafting a youngster to eventually start opposite Easley. Siliga and Jones are fine backups.

QUESTION 3: How much is a backup DE worth? What if Ninkovich or Jones can't play 90% of the defensive reps. Should we expect Moore or Buchanan to start? How much is Ayers worth as a backup DE and OLB backup ?

THE DEFAULT
is to re-sign White, Casillas and keep Wilfork at his present compensation. Is there a better plan for these three positions?

MY GUESS
is that we'll re-sign Casillas in any case. I list White, but obviously the choice could be another special teamer or a LB draftee. That doesn't change the choice before us much.
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OPTION 1: Wilfork and White

OPTION 2: Branch and White

OPTION 3: Branch and Ayers

OPTION 4: Ayers and White

Personally, I think that AYERS add a lot to the defense, being a key backup at both DE and LB. If there are no injuries, re-signing him will look like a waste. After all, he'll get very few reps with everyone healthy: Ninkovich, Jones, Mayo, Hightower and Collins. However, if there is an injury to any of these, Ayers will be valuable. Also, signing Ayers to a long-term deal provides some protection for the future if we cannot re-sign both Hightower and Collins, or if Mayo does come back enough to be worth top dollar in 2015 or 2016 or in 2017.

If we are going to spend more than $9M on two front seven players, one option is Wilfork and White. I prefer Ayers and Branch. I also suspect that there would be $3M of cap savings. The cap savings wouldn't be an issue if Wilfork were willing to take a $3M cut in pay.

WHAT DO YOU ALL THINK?

 

[billdog3484]

I believe we will draft dt in first round then guard in 2nd or 3rd. Love to have wilfork back either way just not at 8m. Not doable.

 

[Fencer]

Before this season we were talking about using Hightower and/or Collins as part-time edge rushers. So indirectly, Mayo could add edge rusher depth.

That said, Jones is injury-prone and Ninkovich is over 30, so I'd really like to see Ayers-quality depth in an edge rusher role, if it can be afforded.

 

[patriot1136]

I hope we keep Ayers. I think he's a good player and would be a bargain compared to other similar free agents. Keep Alan Branch too

 

[Marqui]

I'm with Fencer, we don't need another backup DE because Mayo coming back will move Hightower up to DE/OLB where he was a beast early last year.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Agree with the DT at some point in the draft. We have the undersized speed guy in Easley. Kind of want that "not spectacular but does everything pretty good" aka Ty warren type in this draft and I think you can find that guy at 32.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

I hope Wilfork is retained. His contract may need a "hair cut" so I hope he does not upset the apple cart too much.

 

[BobDigital]

I am for drafting a DT high and that probably means either Branch or Wilfork go. That will depend entirely on salary considerations and to me has very little to do with the LBs/DEs.

I am for keeping Ayers provided that he is willing to take a fair price IE no more than 3M in real money. I really like what he does for our LBs and DE depth.

Casillas i like but I am very much for letting him walk unless he is super cheap. With Ayers you already have enough LB depth so unless the price is right just keep an extra STs LB.

Also I do think we need Ayers for DE depth. I don't trust Moore or Buchanan to be anything.

Maybe you sign Ayers and Collins/Mayo/Hightower/Nink/Jones all stay healthy. If it happens it happens. Still worth it to have quality depth that can back up those 5 crucial spots.

 

[mgteich]

I'm with Fencer, we don't need another backup DE because Mayo coming back will move Hightower up to DE/OLB where he was a beast early last year.

I read Fencer's post three times. He said that we NEED Ayers, as a backup edge-rusher.

 

[mgteich]

I am for drafting a DT high and that probably means either Branch or Wilfork go. That will depend entirely on salary considerations and to me has very little to do with the LBs/DEs.

I am for keeping Ayers provided that he is willing to take a fair price IE no more than 3M in real money. I really like what he does for our LBs and DE depth.

Casillas i like but I am very much for letting him walk unless he is super cheap. With Ayers you already have enough LB depth so unless the price is right just keep an extra STs LB.

Also I do think we need Ayers for DE depth. I don't trust Moore or Buchanan to be anything.

Maybe you sign Ayers and Collins/Mayo/Hightower/Nink/Jones all stay healthy. If it happens it happens. Still worth it to have quality depth that can back up those 5 crucial spots.

So, we disagree about price for Ayers. No matter. Belichick often disagrees with us and overpays needed players an additional $1M.

If Ayers comes back, Casillas would be a ST upgrade over White.

 

[manxman2601]

Agree with the DT at some point in the draft. We have the undersized speed guy in Easley. Kind of want that "not spectacular but does everything pretty good" aka Ty warren type in this draft and I think you can find that guy at 32.

Sorry, but I don't want a "pretty good" player at 32. You can find those on day three.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Good luck grabbing elite talent at 32. Better hope we can a wilfork type slide in the draft

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Will Jake Bequette finally make the team or will he be sent packing?

 

[Show416]

What is the obsession with Casillas?? Isnt he just a special teamer? The only time I remember him getting defensive snaps was when Hightower went down.

 

[Sciz]

My concern with counting on Hightower as a backup DE is whether the Mayo/Collins combo could hold up against the run. Early last season, albeit when there were many other issues going on around them, those two both had issues against the run.

 

[mgteich]

What is the obsession with Casillas?? Isnt he just a special teamer? The only time I remember him getting defensive snaps was when Hightower went down.

I see that you don't value backups. Casillas is a backup LB, best at playing in the base, and a very good special teamer. He would be our #4 LB. As of now, we haven't filled that position, or 5th (White's spot) at this point.

 

[mgteich]

Will Jake Bequette finally make the team or will he be sent packing?

He has made the 90 man team.

 

[patfanken]

Like the topic. There are a lot of things to speculate, but what actually unfolds will tell us a lot about how the Pats view their current roster.

Key off season goals (FA and Draft)

1. Add a big DT to the DL rotation. I'm thinking a Tommy Kelly/Richard Seymour kind of body - 6'6 320. A guy who can plug the middle, yet provide some push on the pass rush. There are several guys being discussed on the draft board who might be there in the 20's who seem to fit that bill. If they have a guy that like, I'd move heaven and earth to go as high as 20 to get him. This is a draft we don't need volume, we need quality.

I don't immediately sign Branch, until after you see what you have after the draft. After that, if you need a wide body, you grab him he still will be there and something close to the minimum

2. One of my top priorities this off season is to add a DE or 2 that can significantly reduce Jones and Ninko's snaps over the course of the year. We may already have the answer with Moore and Buchannon. What they do with Ayers will quickly tell us how the Pats feel about their futures.

I'm less high on Ayers than most. The steep fall off of his snaps once Jones came back is telling to me. I wonder just how high they are on him. He's not going to cost a lot, but he isn't going to cost the minimum either. Also, reportedly pass rushers are one of the deepest positions in this year's draft. Supposedly in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds there still could be someone worth grabbing who could turn into a stituational pass rusher for next season.

3. My third off season priority is to upgrade the talent on the interior offensive line. We won the superbowl with Connolly and Wendell as OG's, but I wouldn't be unhappy if we could replace at least one through the draft or FA. Last season we did VERY well with our OL picks but this discussion needs to be on another thread.

After these 3 priorities everything is gravy and competition.

Some comments on the comments

a. Mayo needs to take a cap haircut. He's missed the better part of 2 seasons now while getting top dollar. I think its justified tor him to give back 2-3MM in cap space in some kind of restructure coming off a serious injury. He's a Pats lifer who's been making top dollar for a lot of years. It shouldn't be a problem.

b. Mayo's return will have a bigger effect than merely adding LB depth. He allows Patricia to be much more creative with Colling and Hightower as rushers and in coverage. What you can do with them might effect what you need at DE

c. Wilfolk earned a lot of money this year for playing in a lot of snaps (74%). He played far better than we had any right to expect coming off that kind of injury at his age, size and position. However while he played well and a lot, I didn't see the kind of elite play that justifies the size of his cap number....and I don't see it getting better next year.

It will be interesting to see if Vince is willing to give the team 2-3MM in cap relief with some kind of a deal. Still paying him what he's owed this season won't be the smartest thing, but it won't be crippling either. Sometimes guys really are exceptions to the rule

d. I'll be scouring reports this off season looking for news that tells me what a great off season Dom Easley is having. If he develops into anything like we hope, our defense could really be special

 

[BJ_McWild]

I think we should move up to 20 for SHAQ

 

[ausbacker]

Like the topic. There are a lot of things to speculate, but what actually unfolds will tell us a lot about how the Pats view their current roster.

Key off season goals (FA and Draft)

1. Add a big DT to the DL rotation. I'm thinking a Tommy Kelly/Richard Seymour kind of body - 6'6 320. A guy who can plug the middle, yet provide some push on the pass rush. There are several guys being discussed on the draft board who might be there in the 20's who seem to fit that bill. If they have a guy that like, I'd move heaven and earth to go as high as 20 to get him. This is a draft we don't need volume, we need quality.

More recently, I keep thinking a Richard Seymour type player (yes, I know they don't grow on trees) would be a player who may help push this defense over the top. Are there any available in the draft or Free Agency?

I apologize as I need to get up to speed with the prospects and available free agents.