The case that we will not take an OLB early in the draft

[bucky]

Thats a lot of analysis.
But I think you are missing the most important factor.

BB drafts a player. He doesn't draft a stereotype (speed rusher, run stopper) he drafts the best football player he can get.

IMO, there is 1 missing element in this. In the 1st round, BB drafts the football player with the highest floor. What is a floor? It's how good the guy will be if he doesn't improve. By definition, any OLB conversion project's floor is that of a 3rd down pass rusher. And BB doesn't draft those in the 1st round. I think this is going to hold true until either (a) BB decides to change his strategy one time on a high risk high reward guy like Mathews or Gholston, or (b) he just happens to find a guy who's almost ready to step in as a 3 down OLB. Most likely though, he will continue to fill the position with FAs and mid-round draft picks.

 

[supafly]

Take a flyer on romeus

I'm high on taking a chance on Romeus personally, although I do not know how well he projects into the system.

Where do you see him going, round-wise, and do you think he can fit this system?

The early projections I saw had him mid round.

 

[andrewgarrr]

Jermaine Cunningham and Jason Taylor were both second round picks NOT THIRD. I think there are a lot of great players picked in the first round who you're missing. Brian Cushing....etc.

I really do not think the Pats specifically not draft OLB because of a general philosophy, but more of a person assessment of prospects they were in position to draft.

Taylor was a 3rd.
Cunningham was a 2nd.

 

[andrewgarrr]

Players selected in the first round have high expectations from fans and the team, high risk, and usually large contracts. At the OLB position in a 34 defense (especially in the Patriots scheme), the player is asked to play standing up, read defenses, and drop into coverage a lot on first and second down. I don't think there are many college programs that ask anyone to do the same thing. Thus, there is virtually no college player who has done similar things in college as to what they will be asked to do in the pros at 34 OLB. This contrasts to most other positions in the game: route running, zone blocking, man-to-man coverage, stunts, etc. are all techniques or schemes that are run in college and translate considerably to the NFL.

Ultimately, it is much harder to judge whether or not a certain player will have the necessary physical tools or mental capacity to perform the duties of a position that they have never played before, versus a player who has extensive experience (and thus game-tape) at a particular technique/position/scheme. Because of this, extrapolating a players success at the 34 OLB position is difficult - and there are not many good first year starters at the position. This increases the risk while not reducing the contract size or expectation level.