The 2013 Prospect Thread

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I haven't been able to get any new McCoil film. What's he look like?

Again, last year, his film wasn't impressive to the untrained eye. He lacked toughness, his instincts were mediocre, and he needed strength. That being said, I have never seen a safety with a combination of size, range, and ball skills that even rivals McCoil.

I have about a third of the games played yesterday, but none I was more excited about than Tulsa. I'm itching to watch it, but's football Sunday so hopefully tomorrow. I'll have a report on him when I'm done.

Also; the media was WAY too quick to get on Bjoern Werner's bandwagon. Absolutely no chance he is a top 10 pick.

Respectfully disagree. The most complete edge player in the draft. Would take him ahead of Mingo, Moore and definitely Jarvis Jones.

I love this class for this reason. There are lots of good pass rushers, but none of them are complete or perfect. They're all very close. There's going to be a lot of debate going forward.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The point is not that we are genius scouts although I think we have some small abilities in that area, the point is that we put some effort in. I'm not saying we are the first to recognise these people but we do seem to be ahead of the curve on a lot of big risers (not all mind). I do think however that we tend to benefit from a lack of accountability and a scatter shot effect. We don't have professional reputations on the line so it's easier to nail our mast to a particular favourite prospect with a lower confidence level than professional writers. Secondly, and I know I'm guilty of this, the more prospects you highlight, the greater the chance you'll hit on someone.

Also, as a minor point, don't forget the idea of "confirmation bias" (i.e., cherry picking)—how many folks has this board collectively gone giddy over (pre-draft) who haven't worked out?

OTOH, you could also consider the future busts that this board has predicted (Gholston).

 

[manxman2601]

Also, as a minor point, don't forget the idea of "confirmation bias" (i.e., cherry picking)—how many folks has this board collectively gone giddy over (pre-draft) who haven't worked out?

OTOH, you could also consider the future busts that this board has predicted (Gholston).

Absolutely. Although there's a difference between those who study prospects closely and those who come to the process late*. I wasn't here for Gholston so I don't know what happened there.


* Not that there's a problem with coming in late, people do have lives to lead.

 

[manxman2601]

I have about a third of the games played yesterday, but none I was more excited about than Tulsa. I'm itching to watch it, but's football Sunday so hopefully tomorrow. I'll have a report on him when I'm done.



I love this class for this reason. There are lots of good pass rushers, but none of them are complete or perfect. They're all very close. There's going to be a lot of debate going forward.

I tell you one thing I wouldn't do as a GM and that's draft a first round QB, even if I had the first overall and had a desperate need. Why draft Geno or Barkley first overall when you can get Luke Joeckel and Mike Glennon who probably isn't much worse than the supposed top three.

It's a strange class. Great to be picking in the 20's but pretty weak if you're picking top 10. Even the pass rushers have their fair share of issues.

 

[mayoclinic]

It doesn't matter when the draft is held.
I'm going to let you guys in on a secret. The media, especially Todd McShay (Kiper is okay, but not good either) has absolutely no idea what the hell it is talking about. However, actual scouts and general managers ignore the media. They find these guys just as quickly as you do. And, obviously, scouts and general managers are the only ones who make the real decisions. I recognize all of the guys you talk about as well. But I don't consider myself a member of the media. I watch 300 college football games a year. I'm a scout. The media is always slow to catch on. Even in my first year as a scout, as a 13 year old, I was months ahead of the media in calling Linval Joseph a second round pick. There is no point in keeping secrets. People who actually work for NFL teams recognize these guys as quickly or maybe even more quickly than you do. Trust me.

It's no secret. We're just joking around.

Yes and no.

Obviously we're all just amateurs, and I'm not suggesting that we know more than professional scouts. I'm sure that a lot of good scouts are all over some of these guys way before we are. But that doesn't mean that teams listen to them. Scouts get ignored all the time, and teams do draft guys who get hyped up by the media. Look at Aaron Curry and Jason Smith in 2009. There are always GMs like Matt Millen and owners like Jerry Jones who will be driven by ego or their own agendas and who will ignore the advice of their scouts. And, in spite of everything, stud prospects get overlooked every year. I had Richard Sherman pegged as a potential stud a long time ago, but the Pats passed on him repeatedly, in spite of all of their scouting expertise. Think they could use someone with his skill set right now?

I think Kyle Long will eventually be a stud in the NFL. If the draft had been held a month ago he might have been undrafted, regardless of what scouts felt about his potential. Who knows where he'll go in April. He'll probably still be a day 3 pick, but he might be closer to the 4th round than the 7th. Maybe he'll work his way into day 2 if he gets some starting time and does well in bowl games, post-season bowls and workouts.

 

[manxman2601]

So Alec Ogletree. Speed and ability to defend the pass by a linebacker is looking good right now.

 

[mayoclinic]

So Alec Ogletree. Speed and ability to defend the pass by a linebacker is looking good right now.

Subject to full evaluation and scrutiny, he's in my mix for guys potentially deserving of a high pick right now. It's BB's judgment where the most bang for the buck would be, but I wanted Lavonte David with a passion badly in the last draft, and I wouldn't be averse to using a high pick on a guy like Ogletree. I'd rather do that than use a high pick on another DB - we have enough youth in the secondary. He's on my short list right now.

 

[manxman2601]

Subject to full evaluation and scrutiny, he's in my mix for guys potentially deserving of a high pick right now. It's BB's judgment where the most bang for the buck would be, but I wanted Lavonte David with a passion badly in the last draft, and I wouldn't be averse to using a high pick on a guy like Ogletree. I'd rather do that than use a high pick on another DB - we have enough youth in the secondary. He's on my short list right now.

I've changed my mind a bit since typing that. This defense is unfixable short of a new DC. Why waste draft picks on it. Go offense so that we can always outscore the Fitzpatricks of this world....and how sad is that?

 

[mayoclinic]

I've changed my mind a bit since typing that. This defense is unfixable short of a new DC. Why waste draft picks on it. Go offense so that we can always outscore the Fitzpatricks of this world....and how sad is that?

Not sure why you think that. I'm not saying that we may not need a new DC, but I'd give Patricia more than 9 games to evaluate him as a DC, and I'd wait until we actually have at least 2 CBs who can play press-man to assess the defense.

I just don't buy it. Wilfork, Jones, Mayo, Hightower, Spikes and McCourty are all Pro Bowl talents. That's over 50% of the starting defense. Love is solid. Ninko/Cunningham are capable. Dennard and Wilson are developing, and it's too early to pass judgment on them. We're 1-2 players away. Maybe we need a new DC, but I don't by the "this defense is unfixable" argument. Not at all.

 

[manxman2601]

Not sure why you think that. I'm not saying that we may not need a new DC, but I'd give Patricia more than 9 games to evaluate him as a DC, and I'd wait until we actually have at least 2 CBs who can play press-man to assess the defense.

I just don't buy it. Wilfork, Jones, Mayo, Hightower, Spikes and McCourty are all Pro Bowl talents. That's over 50% of the starting defense. Love is solid. Ninko/Cunningham are capable. Dennard and Wilson are developing, and it's too early to pass judgment on them. We're 1-2 players away. Maybe we need a new DC, but I don't by the "this defense is unfixable" argument. Not at all.

Exactly. And yet i makes no difference. They still play that badly as a unit. How would adding a 7th "pro-bowl talent" make a difference where 6 can't.


Ryan Fitzpatrick does not look like a pro-bowler against a team with 6 "pro-bowl talents". Which is my point. It's not really about the talent on the field, it's about the coaching and scheme. And until that changes, any draft pick will be a waste. We'll still be a team giving up 20-30 points a game and relying on our offense to dig us out of a hole.

Here's a question. This last week I've increasingly started to like Jesse Williams more and more as a pick. But take that performance today, which I genuinely think was the worst I've seen by the Patriots in recent years. How would Jesse Williams have changed that performance? I really don't see how. They'd still only be rushing 4 or less, the middle of the field would be an open day for TE's, the LB's would still miss tackles and DB's would still be five yrds behind any receiver they're supposed to cover.

Sure we could draft Dion Jordan and have him go after the QB. But we won't because BB doesn't want that, he wants someone to set the edge. We could draft Ogletree to take away the middle of the field but we won't because BB takes LB's weighing less than 240 off his draft board. We've drafted 1 first rounder and three second rounders in the secondary and Ryan Fitzpatrick (or insert any other poor QB here) looks like a pro-bowl QB. It is the coaching and the scheme that let us down and inserting more players into a failed scheme is not going to make a bit of difference.

Watching the Patriots is like watching Baylor against West Virginia.

 

[Austin]

Why are people so high on Mingo?

He sucks. He has 3 sacks this season. Watch his film, he can't get past the O-linemen to save his life. He puts 0 pressure on the QB. Whatever team is dumb enough to draft him will surely get a bust.

What do all of you guys like about him so much? How can you watch his film and say he is even a draftable prospect?

Same goes for Margus Hunt. He sucks. Get no pressure on the QB even in a weak conference. 5 sacks this year against competition that won't even sniff the NFL. Way too tall, uncoordinated, skinny, and weak.

I don't understand Mackenzie what do you see in these guys? You praise these scrubs but you write off beasts who have way more production such as Bjoern Werner and Dion Jordan.

 

[manxman2601]

Why are people so high on Mingo?

He sucks. He has 3 sacks this season. Watch his film, he can't get past the O-linemen to save his life. He puts 0 pressure on the QB. Whatever team is dumb enough to draft him will surely get a bust.

What do all of you guys like about him so much? How can you watch his film and say he is even a draftable prospect?

Same goes for Margus Hunt. He sucks. Get no pressure on the QB even in a weak conference. 5 sacks this year against competition that won't even sniff the NFL. Way too tall, uncoordinated, skinny, and weak.

I don't understand Mackenzie what do you see in these guys? You praise these scrubs but you write off beasts who have way more production such as Bjoern Werner and Dion Jordan.

Chandler Jones final year - 4.5 sacks

Barkevious Mingo 2012 so far - 4.0 sacks

Is Chandler Jones an undraftable scrub?


Mingo has elite level athleticism with unreal speed. I will bet money that he'll have a better career than the more productive Jarvis Jones.

 

[mayoclinic]

Chandler Jones final year - 4.5 sacks

Barkevious Mingo 2012 so far - 4.0 sacks

Is Chandler Jones an undraftable scrub?


Mingo has elite level athleticism with unreal speed. I will bet money that he'll have a better career than the more productive Jarvis Jones.

If Barvevious Mingo slips to 21 I'd be happy to trade up for him.

 

[Austin]

Jones had 4.5 sacks in 7 games. That's not that bad. He was the only good player on his defense so teams would spend all week gameplanning for and trying to find ways to stop Chandler Jones. Getting double and triple teamed all game yet he still had better production and put more pressure on the QB than a guy who is on a loaded D-line and is one-on-one with the Right Tackle on every play. Jones also has perfect size for a defensive end and great strength. Mingo 4 sacks in 10 games and is considered as the best prospect in this draft?? Can't get past the Tackle to save his life. Also has the size and strength of a WR.

 

[manxman2601]

Jones had 4.5 sacks in 7 games. That's not that bad. He was the only good player on his defense so teams would spend all week gameplanning for and trying to find ways to stop Chandler Jones. Getting double and triple teamed all game yet he still had better production and put more pressure on the QB than a guy who is on a loaded D-line and is one-on-one with the Right Tackle on every play. Jones also has perfect size for a defensive end and great strength. Mingo 4 sacks in 10 games and is considered as the best prospect in this draft?? Can't get past the Tackle to save his life. Also has the size and strength of a WR.

You forgot that he almost has the speed of a WR too which is the appeal.

 

[mackenzie45220]

Why are people so high on Mingo?

He sucks. He has 3 sacks this season. Watch his film, he can't get past the O-linemen to save his life. He puts 0 pressure on the QB. Whatever team is dumb enough to draft him will surely get a bust.

What do all of you guys like about him so much? How can you watch his film and say he is even a draftable prospect?

Same goes for Margus Hunt. He sucks. Get no pressure on the QB even in a weak conference. 5 sacks this year against competition that won't even sniff the NFL. Way too tall, uncoordinated, skinny, and weak.

I don't understand Mackenzie what do you see in these guys? You praise these scrubs but you write off beasts who have way more production such as Bjoern Werner and Dion Jordan.

Mingo is 240lbs. He oozes potential, although he isn't great at the college level. He is 6'5 and moves like a receiver. However, he is too skinny to make an impact... yet

 

[Snake Eyes]

You forgot that he almost has the speed of a WR too which is the appeal.

So he can't be successful when he engages the tackle but only when he can run around him? Doesnt seem like a BB-type player.

 

[mayoclinic]

More bad news on the Ziggy Ansah front from Rob Rang:

It is precisely this position and scheme versatility that has made BYU's Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah the hottest senior prospect in the country.

The 6-6, 270 pound native of Ghana originally came to BYU on a track scholarship and only began playing in football in 2010. Having been shuffled between defensive end and linebacker the past two years, Ansah entered his senior season with just 10 combined tackles. Demonstrating much greater awareness and strength this season, however, Ansah has been terrific, standing out in high profile games against Boise State, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech in recent weeks and reportedly earning an invitation to the Senior Bowl.

It was easy to see what Phil Savage and the Senior Bowl scouts saw in Ansah, who dominated Idaho Saturday night, playing both with his hand in the ground as a defensive end and as a stand-up rusher. Ansah is quick off the snap and has long strides that gobble up territory on his way to the quarterback. He's also very long and aware in the passing game, knocking down two passes in the first half before the game got out of hand. Perhaps most exciting -- considering his relative lack of time in the game -- is that Ansah has naturally heavy hands. He broke away easily from Idaho offensive linemen's attempts to control him.

Ansah has improved throughout the season, enjoying the most dramatic breakout performance this year of any senior prospect. Ansah entered the season barely on the blip of scouts' radar but he's pushing for a spot in NFLDraftScout.com's top 50 currently and could very well emerge as a legitmate first round with a solid week in Mobile.

Weekly Rewind: As QBs Drop, OT Joeckel Continues to Rise - CBSSports

It was inevitable that Ansah wasn't going to stay down very long, just like it was inevitable that Dontari Poe would blow away the Combine last year.

 

[Snake Eyes]

More bad news on the Ziggy Ansah front from Rob Rang:



Weekly Rewind: As QBs Drop, OT Joeckel Continues to Rise - CBSSports

It was inevitable that Ansah wasn't going to stay down very long, just like it was inevitable that Dontari Poe would blow away the Combine last year.

As much as I'd like to get Ansah at a bargain I'd be plenty willing to part with a 1st rounder to get him.

 

[mayoclinic]

As much as I'd like to get Ansah at a bargain I'd be plenty willing to part with a 1st rounder to get him.

Yeah, I'm heading that way, too. A stud LDE with exactly the skill set which Rang describes to play opposite Chandler Jones is my #1 priority for the defense, assuming that McCourty stays at FS and the Pats are able to extend Aqib Talib at CB. Depth at DT/interior pass rush and a coverage LB would be on the list for defense along with interior OL and WR on offense, but it's hard not to argue against a dominant pass rush.