Hey guys. Sorry I haven't been here in a while. Been very busy. I just wanted to let you know, I have committed to the University of Chicago next year. As excited as I am to start this new chapter in my life, I must acknowledge that I probably will not have enough free time next year to scout the way I have in the past. This may be my last draft for a few years. I would like to let you know, I have enjoyed my interactions with all of you the last 2 years. You guys have been nothing but civil and well informed fans. I will be back here on draft day. But I don't think I'll be here in 2015. That being said, I would like to tell you guys how I scout the game, just so you may be able to sort of scout the game the way I do for future drafts.
1. For all positions, when it comes to raw players with a great physical skill set, ask yourself one question: is there a good excuse for his poor fundamentals? Jimmy Graham's fundamentals were terrible out of college, but what could you expect from a guy who hadn't played football in 5 years? Cordarrelle Patterson only had one year of FBS experience. Margus Hunt and Ezekiel Ansah have only known what football is for a few years. But Dion Jordan? Had been playing football since middle school and his fundamentals had shown no improvement throughout his college career. Hence he has been a bust so far in the NFL.
2. Another thing about raw players: they better be making improvement from year to year. Jordan, or a guy like E.J. Manuel, is a good example. If I only look at E.J. Manuel's senior film, he looks like a first round prospect. Mediocre although far from terrible fundamentals, and a great physical skill set. But look at his sophomore and junior film. He doesn't look bad in it, but he looks like the same player. E.J. Manuel has made no improvement in his play since his sophomore and junior seasons. What is the point of a guy who works really hard and never gets any better? The improvement you look for shouldn't just be in stuff like fundamentals, but improvement in the impact he makes for his team. Sure, Johnny Manziel didn't improve from freshman year to sophomore year, but he won the Heisman his freshman year. Although the mild regression is a bit concerning, he couldn't have played much better in 2013 than he did in 2012 (remember, although his fundamentals needed work for the NFL level, from Sumlin's point of view, you can't argue with the results), so the lack of improvement in Manziel is acceptable.
3. The most underrated aspect of scouting quarterbacks is the space efficiency of their mechanics. From a theoretical standpoint, the best way to throw a football is not unlike the way a one throws a baseball. The pitcher’s mechanics maximize velocity more efficiently than any quarterback’s throwing motion. However, practically speaking, there is a huge problem with throwing like a baseball pitcher; it’s not space efficient. When a pitcher throws a baseball, his forward momentum carries him several yards away from where he started the pitch. Quarterbacks don’t have that much room in the pocket. They need to make a throw in a confined area. Generally, the more space efficient the quarterback’s motion is, the more accurate he is under pressure, since he always has room to complete his release. If a quarterback's momentum doesn't carry him too far in his follow through, it's a good indicator of space efficient mechanics and a player who will be accurate under pressure in the NFL.
4. One thing that should be noted about wide receivers is that a slot receiver always helps his team a little bit less than his numbers indicate, for one simple reason: almost all slot receivers can't beat press coverage. When a team has a receiver who can't beat press coverage, there is always one way to cope; line him up off the line of scrimmage. You can't press a wide receiver who doesn't line up on the line of scrimmage. However, NFL rules state you must have 7 guys on the line of scrimmage on every play. So, let's go through the numbers. The quarterback never lines up on the line of scrimmage, nor does the running back. The 5 offensive linemen do line up on the line of scrimmage. Some combination of two tight ends and wide receivers must line up on the line of scrimmage on any given play. If one guy can never beat press coverage, he always makes the job a little bit harder on his teammates, as he forces them to line up on the line of scrimmage. In addition, you can only be in motion if you play off the line of scrimmage, so coaches can use motion to give you and not your teammates easier assignments. There are about 2 receivers in the NFL under 5'11 who are consistently difficult to press. Steve Smith, the scrappiest receiver I have ever seen, who tends to make use of his fury to prevent corners from being able to press him. And Antonio Brown, my first sleeper and favorite player in the NFL, who just contorts his torso in weird ways that give the opposing corner almost no surface area which they can press. He's weird, because although that technique can make it difficult for opposing corners to press, he's basically the only guy I have ever seen who doesn't look significantly slower if he's running with his shoulders nearly perpendicular to the ground. But guys like T.Y. Hilton make the jobs of Coby Fleener a little bit more difficult. The reason why Brandin Cooks isn't a top 10 pick is because he makes the jobs of his teammates a little harder since he pretty much can't line up on the line of scrimmage. This is the main reason you need a wide receiver. It's really hard to have Amendola and Edelman on the field at the same time.
5. Tall body catchers are useless. Especially important to catch with your hands if height is your biggest asset. Your height means nothing if you body catch.
6. The so called tight end movement is really overrated, because many of these guys can't block. I know we live in a passing league, but blocking really does matter for tight ends. The inability to block has made guys like Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen, Jermichael Finley, and late in his career Tony Gonzalez really overrated. It's actually quite simple. All of these guys, save Finley who was injured for most of the season, had somewhere between 920 and 780 yards last season, with only one 2 falling out of the 800-900 range. People say "800-900 receiving yards? That's outstanding by the standards of a tight end, pretty much unheard of 15 years ago." Well, let me point this out to you. All of these guys are no more effective as blockers than a wide receiver. Moreover, their blocking is more important, as they are closer to the tackles and their missed blocks are more likely to result in a tackle being made compared to the missed block of a wide receiver. So let me say this: although 800-900 yards is good "for a tight end," if they block like a wide receiver, shouldn't they be held to the standard of a wide receiver in terms of passing production? If you block like a receiver, you have to catch like a wide receiver. Is 800-900 yards good for a wide receiver? It's solid for a #2 receiver, but it sure isn't Pro Bowl caliber. And neither are any of those guys. The one thing that may make the tight end pass catching movement a little more viable is doing what the Panthers did last year: a running back like platoon. I had never seen anything like it, but the Panthers subbed out Olsen last year on likely rushing downs and put in Ben Hartsock. It worked pretty effectively. I think it would be a wise idea for NFL teams to sub out tight ends who can't block for tight ends who can on likely rushing downs. That makes these guys a little more valuable players. I must say though, I'm not saying all tight ends who can't block are bad. Jimmy Graham's blocking isn't much better than that of any of the guys above, but at least he gets 1200 yards and 16 touchdowns in a season. If you can do that, I don't care how bad your blocking is.
7. SEC offensive linemen are almost always underrated, because they are basically the only linemen that get to block 3-4 and 4-3 teams. Over a 3rd of the NFL's defenses use a 3-4 (or, in the case of the Broncos, what I call a 3.5-3.5, a 4-3 base defense that behaves like a 3-4 in the nickel with its substitution patterns and tendency to put Von Miller at defensive end in the nickel). That means over a 3rd of the NFL's defensive ends are over 290lbs. This means that NFL offensive tackles have to be strong enough for mammoths like J.J. Watt and athletic enough for speed demons like Cameron Wake. Almost no is both, but, and, as a result, SEC offensive linemen usually enter the NFL underrated, because they are the only ones who really have to deal with both at the collegiate level (PAC 12 sorta with Stanford, USC, UCLA, although 2 of those defenses are in their infancy), and, as a result, look worse on film against one kind of player or the other. It makes guys like Eric Fisher incredibly overrated; at CMU, he never had to block someone his own size, and we had no reason to believe he would be able to block 3-4 linemen in the NFL. Frankly, his rookie season was fairly disastrous. SEC offensive linemen are pretty much the only ones with legitimate experience against 4-3 and 3-4 linemen, and a guy who proves he is at least passable against both is always underrated.
