Talking TEs - 2014 Draft

[VJCPatriot]

No TE in the draft is more like Hernandez on the field.

No TE in the draft is more like Hernandez off the field.

Exactly. And what troubles me about Colt, is that he could have had the charges dismissed if he entered the voluntary drug rehab program and he didn't. The only worse thing than an addict, is an addict who hasn't yet admitted that he needs help.


12/17/13 - A judge has denied former Oregon tight end Colt Lyerla's request to train in Las Vegas for next year's NFL draft while he is awaiting trial on a drug charge in Oregon. Lyerla is facing a felony cocaine possession charge stemming from an arrest on Oct. 23. Lane County Circuit Court judge Jay McAlpin on Tuesday denied Lyerla's request to live and train under Dwight Ross of Performance Athletics in Nevada.
Lyerla announced he was leaving Oregon on Oct. 6 after a one-game suspension for violating unspecified team rules. He declined to enter the Drug Court program, which gives offenders a chance to have their charges dismissed if they complete treatment for addiction, and efforts since to settle the case have been unsuccessful. The two sides meet again on Dec. 27. - AP Sports




11/14/13 - Ex-Oregon TE Colt Lyerla opts out of drug treatment program...The legal picture for former Oregon tight end Colt Lyerla wasn't made any clearer by his appearance in court Wednesday. The Oregonian reported that Lyerla and his attorney declined to enter him in a court-approved drug treatment program after his Oct. 23 arrest on charges of cocaine possession and interfering with an officer. Per the Oregonian, Lyerla's attorney asked for a two-week extension, which judge Suzanne Chanti and assistant district attorney Amy Seely rejected, citing the two extensions already granted Lyerla. Lyerla is due back in court Dec. 5.
Completing the Lane County Drug Court treatment program would have resulted in the dismissal of the possession charge, with the interference charge already dropped on the condition that he enter the program. Lyerla left the Ducks team midseason in order to prepare for the NFL Draft and then withdrew from school the first week of October. Lyerla's arrest is believed to be a damaging - but not necessarily fatal - blow to his draft stock. - Jerry Hinnen, CBSSports.com


Courtesy of NFL Draftscout.com:
*|*,**:*2015 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

 

[captain stone]

I still think he's too risky in the 5th because some other potential studs will likely be available then. If I can trade around a bit and pick up a few 7ths I'll do it but damn, what the hell was he doing getting busted with coke?

Getting high, I imagine.

 

[ATippett56]

Troy Niklas has a history of concussions dating back to high school.

Caveat emptor:

OC Varsity: Troy Niklas done for the season | niklas, servite, ocvarsity - Blog - OC Varsity

Servite tight end/defensive lineman Troy Niklas won't play for the Friars against Long Beach Poly, or any subsequent games, Servite coach Troy Thomas confirmed this morning. Niklas suffered a concussion in the Servite victory over Santa Margarita. It's Niklas third concussion over a 13-month period. Smart caution calls for Niklas to not play for a while. Niklas, a 6-5, 245-pound junior, is a heck of a prospect.

Troy Niklas heading to the NFL | Inside the Irish

That physical limitations were brought up is interesting, considering the struggles Niklas had earlier in his career, with a migraine/concussion situation bringing a scare.

 

[Off The Grid]

I'll do it but damn, what the hell was he doing getting busted with coke?

Getting high, I imagine.

For The Win, Brother Stone!!

 

[Wilfork#75]

I've stated before I want absolutely no part of Lyerla as a draft pick or even an UDFA. My issue with him is not so much the drugs, or the reported violence or even the fact that he quit on his team and hasn't seemed to learn from any of it. My biggest concern is that his issues at Oregon stemmed from not being to able to handle the structure and rules at Oregon. If he can't handle the structure there he has a 0% chance of working out in New England with Belichick. Guys with character concerns but have strong work ethics and a love for football can work here because they can thrive under the professionalism towards football BB has created in New England. Selfish guys that do their own thing and rebel against any structure environment don't do well and won't be tolerated. Lyerla doesn't seem to be someone that can buy into the team concept and to me that is far more important than talent. Even Randy Moss was a good team player in New England (early on anyway).

 

[TriplecHamp]

Troy Niklas has a history of concussions dating back to high school.

Caveat emptor:

OC Varsity: Troy Niklas done for the season | niklas, servite, ocvarsity - Blog - OC Varsity



Troy Niklas heading to the NFL | Inside the Irish

this is pretty scary, especially with all the information that has been published recently. Might have to rethink about his value.

 

[Wilfork#75]

this is pretty scary, especially with all the information that has been published recently. Might have to rethink about his value.

This is a huge concern for me also. He was my favorite TE in this draft for style of play, skill set and value but I really have to re-think that now. I am against using our 1st round pick on a TE but unfortunately it seems there could be quite a drop off before our 2nd round pick. Ebron will like be gone by 29 and I'm not a fan of Amaro that high, but ASJ will likely be well gone by our 2nd. If the top defensive talent is gone at 29 maybe a trade down for ASJ in the early/mid 2nd would be an option. I really like Niklas but concussions aren't an area I want to mess around with. I'm still hoping for a vet TE like Pettigrew, Gresham or Marcedes Lewis, although each of these are looking more unlikely with Pettigrew likely to re-sign in Detroit, Jax looking to pay Lewis and Cinci with in a decent cap situation.

 

[varjao]

I've been on the "TE is a priority" bandwagon for a while now, more specifically a move TE replacement for <former employee #81>. They didn't have one of those last year (after Sudfeld bombed out) and it really hurt them. My thinking is that when you look at who the Pats have in each position group, the TE group even with a healthy Gronk is the one that they could upgrade most with the infusion of the right talent. Its not that I don't think they need upgrades at a bunch of spots (C, RG, WRX, DT, DE, "coverage" OLB, SS), I just think that the biggest impact from last season to next season (in addition to getting back a 100% Gronk) would be to improve their depth and capabilities at TE.

So, the choices for them are obviously (1) address this in free agency, or (2) address this in the draft, or (3) do both.

In my ("ludicrously uninformed," as the Fanatical Yankee is prone to saying) opinion, considering what I understand to be the current perception of the available talent level and the ease of integrating the new talent into the team next season, the best option for them to fill that position is in free agency, but obviously the costs are much higher and the pickin's are much slimmer there.

I haven't studied this well enough, but like I think most of the folks here, I doubt Baltimore lets Pitta walk. He would be my top choice of those out there (I'm assuming here that Graham will be so prohibitively expensive that he is not even a possibility for the Pats). Thus for me, among the possible available free agents, the prime candidates are (1) Chandler, (2) Pettigrew, and (3) Gresham (if he is cut loose, obviously). My concern here is that I think there will be a pretty hot market for the available FA TEs this year. The impact of Gronk, Graham, Vernon Davis, Julius Thomas, etc. in the past 3 or 4 seasons has in my view elevated the value of this position. I'd have to think that, for example, Seattle and Green Bay would be two of the teams that are looking for an impact TE (Seattle with a reliable safety valve for Wilson in addition to a healthy Harvin next year is a sickening thought). The Pats have too many needs right now, to get them to the next level and win the championship, to overspend for TE in free agency. Thus, I think their best option is to go for a second-tier TE in free agency and see how the draft plays out at the top end.

Regarding the draft - the subject of ths thread - I'm of the opinion that they should either draft a move TE with their #1 or wait until day 3 for a developmental type guy. IMHO there are really only 3 players worth considering as a #1 pick at TE: Ebron, Amaro, and ASJ. I really doubt that Ebron will be there at #29, and I would be shocked to see BB move up enough spots in the draft to be able to take him. This leaves Amaro and ASJ as realistic possibilities for their #1. Of the two, I'm a lot higher on ASJ than Amaro, for a couple of reasons. One is that ASJ has, in my view, a lot more flexibility for the Pats offense than Amaro. I can't see Amaro locking down a DE or OLB on a goal-line or short-yardage situation where they need to run the ball nearly as well as ASJ. The second area is in the red zone. Off what I've seen (again, ludicrously uninformed as my ability to discern this is), ASJ offers a lot more potential as both a blocker and an end zone target than Amaro. If Ebron and ASJ are gone, then I'd rather see the Pats wait and take a second-tier guy like Rodgers or Lynch. The Logan Thomas conversion idea is interesting, but a concern i have with that is that their TE coach is new this year, so handing him a project may not be the right move, and also this team is so close that using a roster spot for a project is not good timing, I don't think. I want no part of Lyerla and as for Harrison I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised but would not want the Pats to bank on that as the solution.

Thus, I'm in the ASJ camp. If here is there, I hope they take him. I don't see him getting past Seattle in the 1st round. If he isn't there, even if Amaro is, I'm hoping they go in a different direction - DE or DT if they stick with #29, or - my real hope, a trade down into the early 2nd round to grab someone in the WRX, DT, DE, "coverage" OLB, SS groups (I don't think they should spend a high pick on a C or RG, I think the value at those spots is better on Day 3).

I'm on the same page with you.

I would spend a 1st round pick in either Ebron or ASJ. Ebron won't be available so if ASJ is gone on the #29, I would rather go with a top WR or address other need than go with Amaro.

If ASJ is available, I don't think we should trade down, because he won't last much longer. I see the Seahawks addressing offense very high on this draft because their defense is basically all set.

On the other hand, if ASJ and Amaro are both available, that spot will get a lot of attention for potential trades, BB will be able to make an auction there and get the best offer. That's interesting, because even then we can get Amaro and some valuable picks, then I'm ok going with Amaro.

Depending on the plans for BB in regard to release players and get more cap space, I can see him going for FA's WR and TE, so in that case I'm ok with a late prospect at TE.

Anyway, through draft or FA, we need a good to top player at TE, I no longer trust on the availability of Gronk and to be honest the way his knee bent in that tackle I have my suspicions over his game from now on to not be the same.

 

[varjao]

By that logic, they should have cut Dennard already.

I think they'll be less lenient, but they're not going to have a zero-tolerance policy.

Nope because Dennard was already under contract and had a great rookie season, so at this point he was a proven player and someone BB knew well enough to make his judgement. And even though a cut to set the tone was not a long shot at that point, even mike reiss pointed that out.

That's different from drafting someone you don't know.

I do think they are gonna have zero tolerance for at least some good years until this Hernandez cloud disappear.

 

[JerseyShore99]

May I just say that last winter into spring, pre-draft (November-April) I wanted the Pats to draft Tyler Eifert and form a a 3-TE offense. I was part joking but the more I thought about it it would have been absolutely to have Hernandez, Gronk, and Eifert line up at the same time and go out for a pass. Obviously in hindsight, that wouldn't have been a horrible move picking up Eifert who would put up far better numbers with TB12 over Dalton. My three favorite TEs in this year's draft class are Amaro, ASJ, and Arty Lynch. The perfect Hernandez replacement is Lyerla who I would only take in the seventh if Gallon (or any other prospect I like that doesn't come to mind) is gone or sign as a UDFA. You bet that if AH was arrested in the winter last year, Jordan Reed would have been on the Pats draft board. Right now my top 3 guys that I'd like to pick at 29 are either Nix, Amaro, or Trent Murphy.

 

[everlong]

Jake Murphy is a guy flying under the radar that I'd like the Pats to take a look at. He's not as fast as Ebron, Amaro or ASJ but after watching what he does in the seam I think he's a better value then the guys at the next level in the 5th or 6th. Very tough, good hands, good YAC, finds openings.

 

[Husse]

Anyone have anything on Cameron Brate, Harvard? Could be good as a potential UDFA.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm starting to re-scout the draft from scratch because I don't feel confident in my evaluations so far. No surprise but I'm starting with TEs. I can see why ASJ is not considered a first rounder - he doesn't have that elite athleticism. But I tell you what, I think he can be right up there with Gronk. Such an intelligent blocker and still has room to improve to an elite blocker and he catches everything. ASJ probably needs 4.75 or better and a 10 yd split around 1.65 to sniff the first.

FWIW, whilst I like ASJ quite a bit more, I've graded Niklas ahead of him pre-combine (he looks faster on tape).

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm starting to re-scout the draft from scratch because I don't feel confident in my evaluations so far. No surprise but I'm starting with TEs. I can see why ASJ is not considered a first rounder - he doesn't have that elite athleticism. But I tell you what, I think he can be right up there with Gronk. Such an intelligent blocker and still has room to improve to an elite blocker and he catches everything. ASJ probably needs 4.75 or better and a 10 yd split around 1.65 to sniff the first.

FWIW, whilst I like ASJ quite a bit more, I've graded Niklas ahead of him pre-combine (he looks faster on tape).

I commend you for re-scouting. It's an important thing to do - we all tend to get locked in. I'm personally waiting until after the Combine to go back and re-evaluate my top prospects. I don't particularly believe in making major adjustments to one's board based on raw measurements in the Underwear Olympics, but it's helpful to go back and re-assess them on film after having a better idea of their athletic ability/limitations.

 

[manxman2601]

I commend you for re-scouting. It's an important thing to do - we all tend to get locked in. I'm personally waiting until after the Combine to go back and re-evaluate my top prospects. I don't particularly believe in making major adjustments to one's board based on raw measurements in the Underwear Olympics, but it's helpful to go back and re-assess them on film after having a better idea of their athletic ability/limitations.

I too am waiting for the combine to lock anything in. Niklas v ASJ will come down to the combine. It's things like arm lengths and hand sizes as much as nothing for me. I think ASJ excels on both but I need verification.

 

[mayoclinic]

I too am waiting for the combine to lock anything in. Niklas v ASJ will come down to the combine. It's things like arm lengths and hand sizes as much as nothing for me. I think ASJ excels on both but I need verification.

It's so difficult to project prospects. Baltimore assistant GM Eric DeCosta has said that it's pretty much a crapshoot even for the professionals, with all their resources. Things such as medical issues, character/motivation, scheme, how a player was used in college, coaching changes, position changes, athletic ability, technical refinement and trajectory all factor in. Plus there's just so much hype associated with the draft, it's hard not to be influenced when a prospect is unanimously proclaimed to be a stud (remember Aaron Curry being declared a "can't miss" pick?). Add in the fact that the draft takes place under such ridiculous time constraints, with very limited time to react to unexpected rises and falls, and it's really quite a challenge.

I'm certainly no expert, but I try to evaluate prospects individually and figure out roughly at what level I would take them. I had ASJ pegged as a mid-1st round prospect at one point; right now I have him pegged as a top-50 talent but probably early-mid 2nd round based on my perception that he lacks explosiveness; I wouldn't take him at 29, but I'd relish him 15 picks later. That assessment could easily be upgraded depending on how he runs and performs in drills at the Combine, with a re-assessment of his tape. As for Niklas, a lot depends on how he runs, an assessment of his athletic ability and projection, and his medical concerns.

 

[manxman2601]

It's so difficult to project prospects. Baltimore assistant GM Eric DeCosta has said that it's pretty much a crapshoot even for the professionals, with all their resources. Things such as medical issues, character/motivation, scheme, how a player was used in college, coaching changes, position changes, athletic ability, technical refinement and trajectory all factor in. Plus there's just so much hype associated with the draft, it's hard not to be influenced when a prospect is unanimously proclaimed to be a stud (remember Aaron Curry being declared a "can't miss" pick?). Add in the fact that the draft takes place under such ridiculous time constraints, with very limited time to react to unexpected rises and falls, and it's really quite a challenge.

I'm certainly no expert, but I try to evaluate prospects individually and figure out roughly at what level I would take them. I had ASJ pegged as a mid-1st round prospect at one point; right now I have him pegged as a top-50 talent but probably early-mid 2nd round based on my perception that he lacks explosiveness; I wouldn't take him at 29, but I'd relish him 15 picks later. That assessment could easily be upgraded depending on how he runs and performs in drills at the Combine, with a re-assessment of his tape. As for Niklas, a lot depends on how he runs, an assessment of his athletic ability and projection, and his medical concerns.

I've done the top four as follows:

Ebron - Top 15
Niklas - Top 40
ASJ -2nd
Amaro -2/3

That's how I think they'll be drafted although if ASJ doesn't perform well I'd swap Amaro and ASJ and might swap ASJ and Niklas if he does.

However, purely on how I value them, I'd take ASJ ahead of Niklas and would drop Amaro to the 3rd.

I find Amaro so limited. Yes he's got good speed and burst for his size but he's a very linear one trick pony. It's a good enough trick that he'll get success but he's not the balanced receiver this offense needs.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I've done the top four as follows:

Ebron - Top 15
Niklas - Top 40
ASJ -2nd
Amaro -2/3

That's how I think they'll be drafted although if ASJ doesn't perform well I'd swap Amaro and ASJ and might swap ASJ and Niklas if he does.

However, purely on how I value them, I'd take ASJ ahead of Niklas and would drop Amaro to the 3rd.

I find Amaro so limited. Yes he's got good speed and burst for his size but he's a very linear one trick pony. It's a good enough trick that he'll get success but he's not the balanced receiver this offense needs.

I'm with you on much of this, but I can't get on board with Niklas. He's a great player but his concussion history is too scary for me. With only ASJ being a realistic target, Gronk insurance is a FA need in my opinion. I'd give Ballard another shot, and Marcedes Lewis could be available for cheap.

 

[everlong]

I've done the top four as follows:

Ebron - Top 15
Niklas - Top 40
ASJ -2nd
Amaro -2/3

That's how I think they'll be drafted although if ASJ doesn't perform well I'd swap Amaro and ASJ and might swap ASJ and Niklas if he does.

I think it's really going to come down to their numbers at the combine. One of the reasons Amaro gets a lot of love is because he's listed as running a 4.67 40. Gronk ran a 4.68 and AH a 4.64 by comparison. ASJ is listed as 4.75 but IMO he plays faster than Amaro.

Another interesting note is that while I generally agree with your notion that BB puts a large stock in the 3-cone at most positions I don't think that really applies to TE. Gronk's 7.18 is pretty pedestrian. Hernandez has a 6.83 which is good for a TE but he's really more like a large receiver. Dwayne Bowe ran a 6.81 for a comp.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm with you on much of this, but I can't get on board with Niklas. He's a great player but his concussion history is too scary for me. With only ASJ being a realistic target, Gronk insurance is a FA need in my opinion. I'd give Ballard another shot, and Marcedes Lewis could be available for cheap.

I'm with you on this one. I haven't ruled out Niklas, but at most he and ASJ are the only 2 rookie in-line TEs in this draft that I like, and I think that the Pats may be better served addressing this need in FA. A lot depends on what happens with 3 veteran options: Brandon Pettigrew, Jermaine Gresham, and Marcedes Lewis. All 3 could be available, or none of them, but get one of those 3 guys to pair with Gronk and add a move-TE later in the draft and I'd be ecstatic.

I'm personally in a holding mode right now about the TE position in the draft until I see what happens with those 3 guys.