Talking TEs - 2014 Draft

[Get it shawtaay]

I really don't feel the need to go TE high.

1) I'm not convinced that the difference between the offense with and without Gronkowski is due to the offense "needing a TE to function", so much as a testament to how freaking dominant he is.

2) I like the depth of the class a lot.

3) Obviously BPA trumps all. But I'm generally not a believer in the market value of the tight end position, for several reasons. First, half of the value a TE can contribute is as a blocker, and blocking is completely devalued on the open market - a perfect stiff in the passing game who blocks at a very high level is 50% as effective at 10% the cost. Second, TE is a grueling position and its harder to find a talented young TE who stays on the field than it is to find one who doesn't (Gronk, Finley, Moeaki, Keller, Pitta, Owen Daniels, Hernandez couldn't stay healthy, Ballard and Boss, etc.). Last, like with running backs you can always find a guy or two at the back end who turn into contributors, with the strength of the class it will be even easier than usual this year IMO.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I'm with you on this one. I haven't ruled out Niklas, but at most he and ASJ are the only 2 rookie in-line TEs in this draft that I like, and I think that the Pats may be better served addressing this need in FA. A lot depends on what happens with 3 veteran options: Brandon Pettigrew, Jermaine Gresham, and Marcedes Lewis. All 3 could be available, or none of them, but get one of those 3 guys to pair with Gronk and add a move-TE later in the draft and I'd be ecstatic.

I'm personally in a holding mode right now about the TE position in the draft until I see what happens with those 3 guys.

It's not a revolutionary thought, but the four top TEs went to just one very quick for me. Ebron was recognized for what he is, Amaro disappointed me on film, and Niklas is too scary for me as a high pick.

I like Lewis the most of those guys. The last time he had a decent QB was 2010 and he had 700 yards and 10 TDs. Sign me up for that.

 

[manxman2601]

I really don't feel the need to go TE high.

1) I'm not convinced that the difference between the offense with and without Gronkowski is due to the offense "needing a TE to function", so much as a testament to how freaking dominant he is.

2) I like the depth of the class a lot.

3) Obviously BPA trumps all. But I'm generally not a believer in the market value of the tight end position, for several reasons. First, half of the value a TE can contribute is as a blocker, and blocking is completely devalued on the open market - a perfect stiff in the passing game who blocks at a very high level is 50% as effective at 10% the cost. Second, TE is a grueling position and its harder to find a talented young TE who stays on the field than it is to find one who doesn't (Gronk, Finley, Moeaki, Keller, Pitta, Owen Daniels, Hernandez couldn't stay healthy, Ballard and Boss, etc.). Last, like with running backs you can always find a guy or two at the back end who turn into contributors, with the strength of the class it will be even easier than usual this year IMO.

Are you saying that Mulligan is 50% as effective as a fully fit Gronk? Whilst I see you're reasoning, I don't agree with this at all.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's not a revolutionary thought, but the four top TEs went to just one very quick for me. Ebron was recognized for what he is, Amaro disappointed me on film, and Niklas is too scary for me as a high pick.

I've said all along that I think Ebron is a 1st round talent, no question, but that I'm not comfortable with the other 3 guys in the 1st. ASJ could easily move into that conversation, but I'm not convinced he will. Niklas has raw in some areas and has the concussion issue. And I see Amaro as a product of his system who was hugely productive, but who will struggle to be a difference maker int he pros. I think he'll have a nice career, but not 1st round worthy.

I keep going back to getting an in-line TE for depth in FA and then getting someone like Richard Rodgers, Arthur Lynch or Xavier Grimble day 3, possibly doubling up with a moon shot or conversion project such as Colt Lyerla, Logan Thomas or Larry Webster, or a H-back like Trey Millard or Trey Burton.

I like Lewis the most of those guys. The last time he had a decent QB was 2010 and he had 700 yards and 10 TDs. Sign me up for that.

I'd be happy to get any of those 3 guys, to be honest. The question is whether any will hit FA.

 

[everlong]

I'm coming around a bit on double dipping at TE and making one of those a high pick. As others have said Ebron will be long gone and I just don't see Amaro or Niklas being as explosive as ASJ. For the lower TE pick I like Logan Thomas and Jake Murphy and would consider a flyer on Colt Lyerla in the 7th.

 

[manxman2601]

A complete moon shot at the position could be former ECU TE Justin Jones as a UDFA. It's an unlikely fit because he was ruled ineligible this year by ECU, presumably because his grades weren't good enough, but then that's why he'll be a UDFA. However, this guy is 6-8 and 277lbs and by no means an athletic slouch.

Justin Jones vs South Carolina & LA-Lafayette (2012) | Draft Breakdown

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I've said all along that I think Ebron is a 1st round talent, no question, but that I'm not comfortable with the other 3 guys in the 1st. ASJ could easily move into that conversation, but I'm not convinced he will. Niklas has raw in some areas and has the concussion issue. And I see Amaro as a product of his system who was hugely productive, but who will struggle to be a difference maker int he pros. I think he'll have a nice career, but not 1st round worthy.

I keep going back to getting an in-line TE for depth in FA and then getting someone like Richard Rodgers, Arthur Lynch or Xavier Grimble day 3, possibly doubling up with a moon shot or conversion project such as Colt Lyerla, Logan Thomas or Larry Webster, or a H-back like Trey Millard or Trey Burton.


I'd be happy to get any of those 3 guys, to be honest. The question is whether any will hit FA.

Yeah. If Lewis was willing to restructure I would trade for him to avoid the FA process all together.

 

[rdf63]

The Pats will be looking at TE options this draft and also think will consider going after Chandler as well. Gronk may not be ready for the first part of 2014 and with back problems in college and the forearm and ACL surgeries, the Pats are concerned about his longevity. Real curious about the size of the TE they want in the draft. Ebron and Rodgers are 245 but don't think Ebron is even a consideration. Fiedorowicz really looks like a Pats type of player and 6'7" 265 size is attractive. If there is no FA activity for a TE, the Pats may go two deep in the draft with players like Grimble or Jacob Pederson in the lower rounds. This is a good draft class and the Pats may take advantage of it.

 

[varjao]

I can't wait for this f..ing draft, bad idea move to May

 

[varjao]

what about reach for Fiedorowicz with our 2nd round pick.

The top 3 will be gone there and since TE's are high on NFL after the offense BB built with gronk and the killer there's a chance 2 of the top 3 to be gone before #29.

We don't really need a speedster TE, that's a formula to nasty injuries. Fiedorowicz has the size to mess up defenses in the middle with Brady working on his best skill. Him and Gronk would create a huge traffic in the middle and then you use the WR for the deep pass.

 

[mayoclinic]

what about reach for Fiedorowicz with our 2nd round pick.

The top 3 will be gone there and since TE's are high on NFL after the offense BB built with gronk and the killer there's a chance 2 of the top 3 to be gone before #29.

We don't really need a speedster TE, that's a formula to nasty injuries. Fiedorowicz has the size to mess up defenses in the middle with Brady working on his best skill. Him and Gronk would create a huge traffic in the middle and then you use the WR for the deep pass.

And I don't consider Fiedorowicz remotely worth a day 2 pick.

 

[mayoclinic]

Yeah. If Lewis was willing to restructure I would trade for him to avoid the FA process all together.

The problem with that is that if you trade for Lewis you inherit his contract. The who reason for Jacksonville cutting him would be that they would save $5.5M in cap space.

 

[everlong]

And I don't consider Fiedorowicz remotely worth a day 2 pick.

I don't consider him a 3rd either.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

The problem with that is that if you trade for Lewis you inherit his contract. The who reason for Jacksonville cutting him would be that they would save $5.5M in cap space.

True, and with the cap space Jacksonville has they might not bother messing with him. I think they have like 50 million available.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

A complete moon shot at the position could be former ECU TE Justin Jones as a UDFA. It's an unlikely fit because he was ruled ineligible this year by ECU, presumably because his grades weren't good enough, but then that's why he'll be a UDFA. However, this guy is 6-8 and 277lbs and by no means an athletic slouch.

Justin Jones vs South Carolina & LA-Lafayette (2012) | Draft Breakdown

Great size. Looks like a "tall 6-8" if that's even possible. Not sure if there's anything else there.

Re: the point earlier about tight ends, Gronkowski is obviously a special case. I'm thinking more Tyler Eifert or Zach Ertz vs. Sean McGrath or Levine Toilolo. The former kinds of guys have "premier" receiving ability, so they cost substantially more. But on the field I don't think they have shown considerably more impact.

I'd rather sign a Sean McGrath late in the draft and shore up another position than spend an early pick on a Tyler Eifert.

 

[mayoclinic]

Really nice breakdown of the top 5 TE prospects (IMO) from Greg Peshek at Rotoworld:

Peshek: TE Metrics - Out Of The Box - Rotoworld.com

It should be an obligatory read for anyone interested in this thread. A couple of interesting points:

- Troy Niklas and ASJ were more downfield threads than Eric Ebron, Jace Amaro and Richard Rodgers. However, Niklas had significantly more YAC than Austin Seferian-Jenkins - 6.41 vs. 3.90. As Peshek notes:

"For Niklas, this is really a reinforcement of his ability as a seam threat. Although many will tag him with the ‘blocking TE’ label, he caught the ball further downfield than any Tight End in this class. Considering his size, averaging 6.4 yards after the catch is a feat certainly worthy of praise."

- ASJ had the most versatility in terms of lining up both as an in-line TE, in the slot, and out wide. Amaro really lined up as a slot receiver almost exclusively (87% of the time)

- ASJ clearly has the best hands of the group. Ebron had by far the highest drop %.

- Rodgers has numbers similar to Ebron, with a lower drop %. His YAC was almost as high as Ebron's.

It's a nice analysis. I think if you want a guy who can run the whole route tree and make catches in traffic ASJ is the clear standout, but is lack of YAC stands out. Niklas seems best as a "mini Gronk" who can block, run the seam route in the intermediate part of the field and produce meaningful YAC, and Rodgers compares quite well to Ebron. Amaro seems too limited to me as a glorified slot receiver. After reading this, I'm more set than ever on Rodgers and Niklas as relative values at the position (at least for now).

 

[manxman2601]

Really nice breakdown of the top 5 TE prospects (IMO) from Greg Peshek at Rotoworld:

Peshek: TE Metrics - Out Of The Box - Rotoworld.com

It should be an obligatory read for anyone interested in this thread. A couple of interesting points:

- Troy Niklas and ASJ were more downfield threads than Eric Ebron, Jace Amaro and Richard Rodgers. However, Niklas had significantly more YAC than Austin Seferian-Jenkins - 6.41 vs. 3.90. As Peshak notes:



- ASJ had the most versatility in terms of lining up both as an in-line TE, in the slot, and out wide. Amaro really lined up as a slot receiver almost exclusively (87% of the time)

- ASJ clearly has the best hands of the group. Ebron had by far the highest drop %.

- Rodgers has numbers similar to Ebron, with a lower drop %. His YAC was almost as high as Ebron's.

It's a nice analysis. I think if you want a guy who can run the whole route tree and make catches in traffic ASJ is the clear standout, but is lack of YAC stands out. Niklas seems best as a "mini Gronk" who can block, run the seam route in the intermediate part of the field and produce meaningful YAC, and Rodgers compares quite well to Ebron. Amaro seems too limited to me as a glorified slot receiver. After reading this, I'm more set than ever on Rodgers and Niklas as relative values at the position (at least for now).

Another stat that Peshek left out but that came out on twitter was:

@JoshNorris: RT @NU_Gap: Best stat I left out...34.3% of Seferian-Jenkins' receptions came in the red zone compared to an average of 10% for the rest

Considering our inability to convert in the red zone last year, not an unimportant stat.


I agree that Niklas came out of that report very well but I love the balance that ASJ offers. I'm convinced he's the most NFL ready of them all. I would not be disappointed by Niklas however. I don't get as excited by him as I do ASJ but he's a fine second choice.

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree that Niklas came out of that report very well but I love the balance that ASJ offers. I'm convinced he's the most NFL ready of them all. I would not be disappointed by Niklas however. I don't get as excited by him as I do ASJ but he's a fine second choice.

As I said, I think ASJ comes across as the most versatile of the 5 prospects, and clearly has the best hands. Niklas and ASJ are clearly far ahead of the other 3 as blockers. I think that Niklas has plenty of potential as a red zone threat, but I agree that ASJ is clearly more "NFL ready".

If Niklas checks out medically and is available a full round later than ASJ then I think he's a much better value. If they are close together, then ASJ is clearly the more ready prospect. And I'll take Rodgers over Amaro straight up, not even taking into consideration that he'll probably be available 1-3 rounds later.

 

[manxman2601]

As I said, I think ASJ comes across as the most versatile of the 5 prospects, and clearly has the best hands. Niklas and ASJ are clearly far ahead of the other 3 as blockers. I think that Niklas has plenty of potential as a red zone threat, but I agree that ASJ is clearly more "NFL ready".

If Niklas checks out medically and is available a full round later than ASJ then I think he's a much better value. If they are close together, then ASJ is clearly the more ready prospect. And I'll take Rodgers over Amaro straight up, not even taking into consideration that he'll probably be available 1-3 rounds later.

I think it more likely that Niklas will be taken a "full round" ahead of ASJ.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think it more likely that Niklas will be taken a "full round" ahead of ASJ.

I doubt it, particularly with the concussion history, but if that's the case, I certainly would go for ASJ as a much better value.