Schefter: Pats sign Brandon Lloyd

[Salva135]

Interesting. If I were to rank all the targets it'd be:

1. 2007 Moss
2. 2012 Gronk
3. 2007 Welker
4. 2012 Welker
5. 2012 Hernandez
6. 2012 Lloyd
7. 2007 Gaffney
8. 2007 Watson
9. 2007 Kyle Brady
With a potential 2012 rookie most likely being ranked between 7-8.

I'd call RBs a wash. (Ridley=Maroney, Woodhead=Faulk)

The 2012 offense has a chance to be as historic as 2007, and it has close to our better weapons. EPIC.

Not to be nitty here, but are you taking it as a given that 2012 Brady = 2007 Brady? I realize he's still playing at an ultra-elite level, but I don't think you can entirely discount the injury and being 5 years older. His deep ball accuracy and mobility in particular.

 

[BigHoss28]

Would love to see Michael Floyd fall to the Pats but it's a pipe dream.

 

[SEA_Pat]

Harrison Smith>Mark Barron:cool3:

I am all in on Smith..

A Pats safety named Harrison? Count me in (even though I've never seen either of them play)...

 

[zoostation]

He doesn't need to be a Moss-level talent, because the tight end superiority is so significant. He just needs to be talented enough that he, like Lloyd, demands one of the opposing team's top 2 CBs and teams can't cheat the safety on Lloyd's side (done) and have to really focus on keeping the safety watching the other side (rookie burner) back as well.

If the burner can just force that safety to lag back, that'll put 2 of the Gronk/Hernandez/Welker group up against single coverage even with a 4 man rush, and with the short-middle of the field relatively open, and I think Brady will abuse a team trying that all day and all night.

I see your point and I agree.

 

[Joker]

Not to be nitty here, but are you taking it as a given that 2012 Brady = 2007 Brady? I realize he's still playing at an ultra-elite level, but I don't think you can entirely discount the injury and being 5 years older. His deep ball accuracy and mobility in particular.

a cautionary tale but one that should be a consideration for sure...

 

[Joker]

He doesn't need to be a Moss-level talent, because the tight end superiority is so significant. He just needs to be talented enough that he, like Lloyd, demands one of the opposing team's top 2 CBs and teams can't cheat the safety on Lloyd's side (done) and have to really focus on keeping the safety watching the other side (rookie burner) back as well.

If the burner can just force that safety to lag back, that'll put 2 of the Gronk/Hernandez/Welker group up against single coverage even with a 4 man rush, and with the short-middle of the field relatively open, and I think Brady will abuse a team trying that all day and all night.

it's been a constant in my mind since the playoffs...get a safety out of the middle short and *poof*...there goes the genius party "amoeba!!"Ryan and Ravens defenses...Lloyd is halfway there to that end...with 2 ones and 2 twos a WR with speed is almost a certainty..look at it this way, we COULD be the Jets if we had the kind of management that has led them into mediocrity...we don't.

 

[fnordcircle]

I'm happy with the two WR signings.

I'm a little gunshy about getting amped up about Lloyd though, after Ochocinco struggled so much last year. Obviously there are differences there including familiarity with our OC.

Still, if we get lucky Lloyd could get north of 60 catches/5 TDs and maybe Gonzalez stays healthy enough to turn in a Gaffney-esque effort for us. If so this team is gonna be able to move the ball extremely well.

 

[Deus Irae]

it's been a constant in my mind since the playoffs...get a safety out of the middle short and *poof*...there goes the genius party "amoeba!!"Ryan and Ravens defenses...Lloyd is halfway there to that end...with 2 ones and 2 twos a WR with speed is almost a certainty..look at it this way, we COULD be the Jets if we had the kind of management that has led them into mediocrity...we don't.

From your lips to BB's ears, sir.

 

[PatriotDynasty_12]

 

[Rob0729]

I'm happy with the two WR signings.

I'm a little gunshy about getting amped up about Lloyd though, after Ochocinco struggled so much last year. Obviously there are differences there including familiarity with our OC.

Still, if we get lucky Lloyd could get north of 60 catches/5 TDs and maybe Gonzalez stays healthy enough to turn in a Gaffney-esque effort for us. If so this team is gonna be able to move the ball extremely well.

Ochocinco still didn't know where to line up in the Super Bowl. I seriously doubt Lloyd will have that problem. He knows the offense. He runs good routes. He seems to know how to read defenses.

 

[fnordcircle]

Ochocinco still didn't know where to line up in the Super Bowl. I seriously doubt Lloyd will have that problem. He knows the offense. He runs good routes. He seems to know how to read defenses.

He's also reportedly had personality issues (bipolar, etc) and is a guy who hasn't ever caught over what, 57% of the balls thrown his way in a season?

I'm not preemptively hating the guy and I'm not gonna rail against what I thought was a pretty good signing - you can't beat $12m over 3 years, but after how #85 turned out I think I'm gonna reel in my expectations for now.

 

[condon84]

He's also reportedly had personality issues (bipolar, etc) and is a guy who hasn't ever caught over what, 57% of the balls thrown his way in a season?

I'm not preemptively hating the guy and I'm not gonna rail against what I thought was a pretty good signing - you can't beat $12m over 3 years, but after how #85 turned out I think I'm gonna reel in my expectations for now.

Lloyd played and was successful in McD's system. If anything, he's got that experience over what Ocho had before coming here. Unless McD plans to do something completely different, I don't see why you or any other Pats fan wouldn't be excited over this signing.

 

[THELAWFIRM226]

He's also reportedly had personality issues (bipolar, etc) and is a guy who hasn't ever caught over what, 57% of the balls thrown his way in a season?

I'm not preemptively hating the guy and I'm not gonna rail against what I thought was a pretty good signing - you can't beat $12m over 3 years, but after how #85 turned out I think I'm gonna reel in my expectations for now.

Fair enough, but I just want to point that that Lloyd is an extremely intelligent player by most accounts, and a much better route runner than Ocho. Couple that with the fact that he's already somewhat familiar with the system and I think he will do just fine. As for Ocho, I may be all alone on this one, but I truly hope we keep him, I have a gut feeling he is going to get it together and be a playmaker for us this year. Call me crazy but imagine our offense with Ocho and Lloyd on the outside, and welker, branch and our TE's through the middle.....scary....just scary

 

[Rob0729]

He's also reportedly had personality issues (bipolar, etc) and is a guy who hasn't ever caught over what, 57% of the balls thrown his way in a season?

I'm not preemptively hating the guy and I'm not gonna rail against what I thought was a pretty good signing - you can't beat $12m over 3 years, but after how #85 turned out I think I'm gonna reel in my expectations for now.

Who was throwing him the ball? Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, a banged up Sam Bradford, Jason Campbell, Mark Brunnell (and not the good version), Alex Smith, Tim Rattay, and Jeff Garcia. Part of the reason he doesn't have a high completion percentage is because if you took all the good aspects of the QBs throwing to him and combined him into one super QB, they still wouldn't be more than an above average QB.

As for his personality disorder, I have never heard he was bipolar or anything like that. He just is a pain in the arse who played a lockerroom lawyer. That defines half the WRs in the league. Not a good thing, but not like he has real mental issues. Besides, word is that he doesn't act that way under McDaniels. Remember he petitioned to come here. So he is unlikely to be unhappy, at least not in 2012.

Lloyd doesn't have to be a superstar. He just needs to make opposing teams respect the outside routes and deep parts of the field. That alone will pay dividends because it will create mismatches for Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez. The Pats don't need the 1400 yard Lloyd of 2010. If they get him, it is a huge bonus.

 

[ivanvamp]

Lloyd doesn't have to be a superstar. He just needs to make opposing teams respect the outside routes and deep parts of the field. That alone will pay dividends because it will create mismatches for Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez. The Pats don't need the 1400 yard Lloyd of 2010. If they get him, it is a huge bonus.

If they get those numbers from Lloyd, it will mean one of two things: (a) Brady is throwing for 5800 yards, or (b) other guys aren't getting as many yards.

I tend to think that (b) is more likely. Which is fine. The 2007 Patriots set the all-time scoring record and Tom Brady threw for more than 400 fewer yards than he threw in 2011. That 2007 team was more efficient, however.

All the Pats need from Lloyd is what you describe above. Just be more of an outside/deep threat (a legitimate one...one that forces the other team to roll coverage that way) than what they had this past year. Which will almost certainly be the case.

A defense that has to defend Lloyd, Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, and Ridley/Vereen in a hurry-up set has to defend every single inch of defensive space, and has to have the right personnel to defend every possible offensive concept the Pats have. How those defenses are going to do that, I have no idea.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I have to admit I haven't read much of the 37 pages of opinions in this thread, so pardon me if anything I say is redundant. Here's my take on Lloyd in 3 parts

1. Lloyd is NOT a speed WR - from what I have read he runs in the 4.6 to 4.7 area. He is NOT super quick like Welker or Branch in his prime. But what he has is a unique set of skills that will allow him to become a different WR threat and force defenses to respect the Pats passing game outside the hashes.

The skills that allow Lloyd to have a 15+ yds ypc average without a lot of YAC are:

A. He can get off the LOS against physical press coverage - As the season wore on the Pats saw this coverage more and more. Lloyd has shown he can consistently beat it. Branch has shown that he consistently can't.

btw- I'm not down on Branch - if every team in the league was forced to play zone defenses, then he'd be a lock on my roster, even at this late date. But that aren't, especially against the Pats. Its not him, its his skill set that no longer fits what defenses are doing to stop him.

B. He has the ability and extreme body control to catch the ball down field even though he is seemingly "covered". He doesn't need the "separation" that a Branch needs to make a catch.

2. Its a decent signing, but I think some of the others will prove to have more overall impact, simply because when you are a top 3 defense to begin with, its hard to show incremental improvement like in points scored and yds gained. In the same vein, when you are a bottom 3 defense, its a lot easier to make those "incremental jumps"

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy with the signing, but it in the long run, it will make the Pats offense different, and perhaps more efficient, but after over 5,200 passing yds last season, its going to be very difficult to think he'd make it "better".

3. And again nothing against Lloyd and his talents, but given the talent disparity between the offense and defense, I can't help wonder if the over all team would be better served using the Lloyd money to resign Anderson and/or Carter. However if we can, in the end, sign one or both of these guys you can move me into the "thrilled" category on this signing.,

Agree Now resign Carter and/or Anderson.

 

[Beverly Boys]

How about fixing the Defense first??????

 

[Rob0729]

BTW, here is an article and Football Outsider stats that make the Lloyd dal seem like a great deal.

New England struck out with Chad Ochocinco last season, but the Lloyd factor could be far more impactful, and his history with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is the key. McDaniels was Denver's head coach in 2010, when Lloyd led the NFL in "air yards" with 16.47 per catch. That season, he ranked second in Football Outsiders' cumulative efficiency rankings, and sixth in FO's per-play metrics, among all receivers. In 2011, Branch led the Patriots with 7.27 air yards per catch, while Lloyd picked up 11.97 in St. Louis' woeful passing offense with McDaniels as offensive coordinator.

Brandon Lloyd could be New England



It even addresses his completion rate:

Lloyd's catch rates aren't always great (51 percent in 2010, and 48 percent in 2011), but that's fairly common among deep receivers.

Lloyd was second in Football Outsider's WR rankings in 2010.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2010

 

[Rob0729]

How about fixing the Defense first??????

In case you haven't noticed, the Pats have been addressing that. Both Fanene and Gregory are upgrades. They are looking at LaRon Landry and the draft is five weeks away.

Seriously, is signing Lloyd at $4 million a year taking away from fixing the defense?

 

[Deus Irae]

How about fixing the Defense first??????

Just curious...

Which side of the ball do

Scott
Gregory
Harrison
Fanene

play on?