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SB XLVI Prediction

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by AndyJohnson, Feb 5, 2012.

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  1. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I see a few very critical factors that will impact the outcome of this game.
    1) I think Tom Brady will have one of the best days of his career, because the OL will give him time, and the Giants just cannot cover our receiving weapons

    2) While we have lost 2 straight to the Giants, lost in that is that BB has schemed very well for Eli. Last game, aside from a 10 yard drive after a fumble, the Giants had 3 points on the board with 7 minutes left in the game, even after getting 3 other turnovers. All that changed after that, really, was they figured out how to get pi calls and exploit special team players forced into duty. In SB 42, the Giants also had just 3 points on the board until the last 2 drives and without the helmet catch or any one of the dropped Ints would have scored 10 all day.

    3) I have never seen a better opportunity for BB to create a scheme to exploit an offense. First, the Giants have struggled against us, as noted above and dont realize it. Second, Eli has worked himself into a position where, in his brothers house, he must prove he is elite, and in Bradys class. Third, the best way to defend the Giants is to dare them to run, play a deep shell and force them to take yards in small chunks, be patient and be consistent on long drives. Eli is not normally patient, and will be less so with eliteness on the line. Also, disguising coverage will cause Eli to think the intermediate and deep throws will be there presnap. That will cause either poor decisions or late checkdowns, which will lead to him trying to extend the play, leave the pocket and get our pass rush to him (this happened a lot vs SF too). Eli has struggled against us, and SB 46 will be no different.

    4) The Patriots hurryup will either leave the Giants shorthanded in the pass rush, or undersized to stop the run. I think we will have a good mix early, then exploit the weak pass D, then run with the lead.

    I see Brady coming out on fire. Manning will be frustrated needing to check down, and we will do just fine vs the run, especially since a big chunk of Bradshaws success comes from cutting back against the grain after contain has broken down. Our disciplined D scheme will limit that. I expect Brady and the offense to resemble the Bronco game in the first half.

    By halftime, I expect the Patriots to have build a large lead, say 24-7.
    Defensively we will be playing somewhat prevent which isn't far from the original gameplan, but trailing and throwing every down, and under pressure, Eli wiill be more willing to take the short stuff, and they will be more effective. We will play slower on offense, and unfortunately revert to a 'keep on schedule offense' and will have some second half drives killed by just misisng on 3rd down conversions. The margin will stay around the same or close up a bit.
    The Giants will have a late rally where they take way too much time to get no where near enough points, and we gladly oblige.

    Final Score Patriots 38 Giants 24

    Brady 25-33-295
    Manning 31-55-321

    Turnovers
    Patriots 0
    Giants 2

    Rushing Yards
    Patriots 138
    Giants 90

    MVP TFBrady aka GOAT
  2. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    While I agree with your final score....(my prediction is close at 34-23 Pats)

    I want to know why #1 does not pertain to the NYG as well?.....I could see Eli easily passing for 400 yards on this D,even if that doesn't produce a victory for them

    I do think Eli will have more yards passing and he will hit several 30 yard bombs, but Brady with a higher passing rating when it's over.

    I don't think either defense will contain either WR corps

    The difference to me in it not being a 70 point total score is that there WILL be turnovers and I think it could be one of those sloppy games where momentum switches back and forth with the winning team making more out of turnovers than the other.

    I think there will be 7 total turnovers in this game,either fumbles,strip sacks or INTs

    I expect an ugly game with the Pats less ugly.
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2012
  3. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Because Eli's team lacks the "the OL will give him time" component. Pats DL is going to have a huge game.
  4. oldskool138

    oldskool138 Rookie

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    Pain? 10char
  5. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    Eli can scramble when he needs to a bit better than Brady,we all saw in 2007 when Seymour,Thomas and Green failed to nab that b1tch before the Tyree catch.

    Both DLs will be better than their secondaries...that's a gimme.
  6. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I wrote a lot about how Manning hasn't done real well vs our D, what I think the game plan will be and how I think it is a perfect gameplan for this O, QB and game.
    I think there is no chance Eli complete SEVERAL 30+ passes, and if he does, we won't win.
  7. Rob0729

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    People forget that Manning only threw for 250 yards the last time he faced the Pats. Yes, he didn't have Hakeem Nicks (who is injured today), but he got 165 of those 250 yards and both of his TDs on the final two drives after Spikes, Chung, Barrett, and Guyton (although Guyton sucks, it threw Tracy White into the starting role) went down.

    Sure, Manning could put up 400 yards, but people forget that the Pats defense shut him down for three quarters the last time the Pats and Giants met a few months ago.
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2012
  8. patsinthesnow

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    #87 Jersey

    This is a very good point Andy, that has seemed to be overlooked. Our defense has had their number in both games, playing like the 03 defense. The problem in both games was our offense blew chunks for too long to build a sizeable lead on them.

    In Superbowl 42, the defense was blown open when Harrison let a 15 yard Boss catch escape for about 40 yards.

    In week 9, the defense blew open when Brady fumbled for the 3rd turnover, they had the ball at the 10, and Haynesworth gave up giving a freebee TD.

    Hopefully the trend continues and they have a whopping 3 points to start the 4th quarter!
  9. jbb9s

    jbb9s Rookie

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    Welker has had about 30 catches and 350 yards in the last 3 Giants game. They can't stop him. They will also be focused on the TEs. I bet Welker gets the MVP.
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2012
  10. nabwong

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    #12 Jersey

    I'm expecting a blow out. There's no reason for it but I've been feeling this way for a week. It's the same feeling I had before the broncos game.
  11. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I really hope you're right but I think it comes down to the wire again. These two teams are very evenly matched IMO and even if one could pull away, the refs probably won't let it happen. There hasn't been a true SB blowout in a long time, 2002 is the last one I can recall. And our defense is known to get a little too comfortable with big leads, I don't think I'd feel truly safe with even a 3 score lead.
  12. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm kind of with you, but in a big game we will get really, really conservative with a big lead. They can make it closer because we will be playing vs the clock not the Giants, because that is the right thing to do.
    As I said I expect something around 24-7 at half and 38-24 final. It will feel like a blowout though.
  13. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

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    That was my prediction as well. Pats 27-23.
  14. PittPatriot

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    I hope you are right, Andy.

    I expected a blowout in SB42 and got nervous when they stayed close the whole game. Now, I don't mind a close game as I feel this team has the stones to pull it out.
    To me it all comes down to TB. This team is built for the offense to score 30 and the D to NOT GIVE UP 30. No matter how the game ends, if the Offense does not get its 30, I put the loss on them. My little crystal ball says:

    Pats 33-23
  15. PittPatriot

    PittPatriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In SB42, going into the final minutes, I felt comfy with a 4 point lead…not so much with a 3 point lead. Little did I know it would not even matter.
    I agree though, we need some separation going into the final 5 minutes of the game or it will only give Eli more confidence. Once was luck…twice is a trend…3rd time would be downright embarrassing.
  16. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Losing another heartbreaker to Manning and to an arrogant group who ran their mouths leading all the way up to kickoff would be awful. Got to think Brady and BB can't let this happen
  17. PittPatriot

    PittPatriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I still have visions of the "Stomp" by Strahan in their SB Parade. You're right…I am sure Tom and BB have thought about this for 4 years.
  18. ahmed

    ahmed Rookie

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    Pats 42
    Giants 21
  19. nabwong

    nabwong PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    That sounds about right to me. A big difference was Brady had an ankle injury in the last superbowl and this time, he is relatively injury free. I think we'll start with no huddle right off the bat.
  20. vyrago

    vyrago Rookie

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    It seems to me that people keep forgetting Brady's injury. While no gazelle to begin with, Brady is pretty good at sliding around in the pocket, but he was noticeably less mobile in that game.
  21. condon84

    condon84 Rookie

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    I see us doing the same thing. Whether Eli will play smart (kinda like Rothelisburger did against us earlier this year) is going to be the key. Personally, I think he will and take what the Pats give him.

    I see both teams moving the ball pretty well between the 20 yard line. What they do in the red zone will determine this game.

    I think we have to run the ball enough to keep them honest and take advantage of play-action in the red zone. Brady does extremely well in play-action situations in the red zone and usually finds the open guy. That's how we're gonna score touchdowns. We can't allow them to sit back in a zone in the redzone playing pass all the time. There will be not enough space especially if we have 4 - 5 receivers going out on routes in a confined area. We must run the ball for us to have success in the red zone.

    That being said, I see us being able to run when we are in a hurry up and have them stuck out on the field with the wrong personnel. They'll move the ball too, but I see us exchanging TDs with FGs.

    Final score:

    Pats 38 - 5 TDs, 1 FG
    Giants 23 - 2 TDs, 3 FG



    One final thing: Giants will fake injuries to slow our tempo at least 5 times.
  22. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Excellent analogy. Another is Bledsoe in the first game of 2003. BB literally dared him to change his spots in that game, and very surprisingly he did.
    It's rare, though, and there is a lot about Eli that tells me he won't, because he doesn't, and especially in this game,he isn't going to want to.
  23. Gwedd

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    No Jersey Selected

    I've been thinking something around the 31 to 17 score, Pats up and running from the first quarter on.

    The one intangible that I have heard very little talked about is this: This game will be the first time we've seen New England play indoors.

    Think about that for a moment. This team has been able to put up all sorts of numbers playing outside, in the wind, rain, cold, whatever. Now they get to play in what to them will amount to a practice bubble.

    I'm looking for New England to score early and often.

    I'm also thinking that this defense is damned tired of being dissed and wants to make a point to all the mediots and reportards and other talking heads out there.

    Best of luck to our guys, a great game, and mighty win, no injuries and GO PATS!!!!!!!!!!!! :rocker: :rocker: :rocker:
  24. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think indoors definitely favors us.
    No one would call us a FAST team, but we rely on QUICKNESS as much as anyone.
    Turf accentuates quickness more than speed.
  25. PatsFanSince74

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    Thanks, Andy.

    I see the Pats in the Hurry-up on 75+% of plays from scrimmage.

    I think BB will take a few pages from the SB XXXVI D game plan and focus on hitting Nicks and Cruz before they get off the line.

    As the week's gone on, I am starting to feel a big Pats win. Maybe it's living here in NY and seeing just HOW overconfident the Giants' team, organization, media and fan-base have become over the last two weeks.
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2012
  26. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Jamming the WRs with a cover 2 shell does make sense, IF we are confident in the safeties.
    IMO, BB is 100% clear on how he wants to defend this offense, and has had 2 weeks to work on the specific calls and techniques he will use. Playing a corner under and safety over will make Eli get impatient. Problem is this is a lot harder against a 3 WR base that a 2 Wr base.
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