SB XLVI Prediction

[Ring 6]

I see a few very critical factors that will impact the outcome of this game.
1) I think Tom Brady will have one of the best days of his career, because the OL will give him time, and the Giants just cannot cover our receiving weapons

2) While we have lost 2 straight to the Giants, lost in that is that BB has schemed very well for Eli. Last game, aside from a 10 yard drive after a fumble, the Giants had 3 points on the board with 7 minutes left in the game, even after getting 3 other turnovers. All that changed after that, really, was they figured out how to get pi calls and exploit special team players forced into duty. In SB 42, the Giants also had just 3 points on the board until the last 2 drives and without the helmet catch or any one of the dropped Ints would have scored 10 all day.

3) I have never seen a better opportunity for BB to create a scheme to exploit an offense. First, the Giants have struggled against us, as noted above and dont realize it. Second, Eli has worked himself into a position where, in his brothers house, he must prove he is elite, and in Bradys class. Third, the best way to defend the Giants is to dare them to run, play a deep shell and force them to take yards in small chunks, be patient and be consistent on long drives. Eli is not normally patient, and will be less so with eliteness on the line. Also, disguising coverage will cause Eli to think the intermediate and deep throws will be there presnap. That will cause either poor decisions or late checkdowns, which will lead to him trying to extend the play, leave the pocket and get our pass rush to him (this happened a lot vs SF too). Eli has struggled against us, and SB 46 will be no different.

4) The Patriots hurryup will either leave the Giants shorthanded in the pass rush, or undersized to stop the run. I think we will have a good mix early, then exploit the weak pass D, then run with the lead.

I see Brady coming out on fire. Manning will be frustrated needing to check down, and we will do just fine vs the run, especially since a big chunk of Bradshaws success comes from cutting back against the grain after contain has broken down. Our disciplined D scheme will limit that. I expect Brady and the offense to resemble the Bronco game in the first half.

By halftime, I expect the Patriots to have build a large lead, say 24-7.
Defensively we will be playing somewhat prevent which isn't far from the original gameplan, but trailing and throwing every down, and under pressure, Eli wiill be more willing to take the short stuff, and they will be more effective. We will play slower on offense, and unfortunately revert to a 'keep on schedule offense' and will have some second half drives killed by just misisng on 3rd down conversions. The margin will stay around the same or close up a bit.
The Giants will have a late rally where they take way too much time to get no where near enough points, and we gladly oblige.

Final Score Patriots 38 Giants 24

Brady 25-33-295
Manning 31-55-321

Turnovers
Patriots 0
Giants 2

Rushing Yards
Patriots 138
Giants 90

MVP TFBrady aka GOAT

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

While I agree with your final score....(my prediction is close at 34-23 Pats)

I want to know why #1 does not pertain to the NYG as well?.....I could see Eli easily passing for 400 yards on this D,even if that doesn't produce a victory for them

I do think Eli will have more yards passing and he will hit several 30 yard bombs, but Brady with a higher passing rating when it's over.

I don't think either defense will contain either WR corps

The difference to me in it not being a 70 point total score is that there WILL be turnovers and I think it could be one of those sloppy games where momentum switches back and forth with the winning team making more out of turnovers than the other.

I think there will be 7 total turnovers in this game,either fumbles,strip sacks or INTs

I expect an ugly game with the Pats less ugly.

 

[Sciz]

I want to know why #1 does not pertain to the NYG as well?.....I could see Eli easily passing for 400 yards on this D,even if that doesn't produce a victory for them

Because Eli's team lacks the "the OL will give him time" component. Pats DL is going to have a huge game.

 

[oldskool138]

Pain? 10char

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Because Eli's team lacks the "the OL will give him time" component. Pats DL is going to have a huge game.

Eli can scramble when he needs to a bit better than Brady,we all saw in 2007 when Seymour,Thomas and Green failed to nab that b1tch before the Tyree catch.

Both DLs will be better than their secondaries...that's a gimme.

 

[Ring 6]

While I agree with your final score....(my prediction is close at 34-23 Pats)

I want to know why #1 does not pertain to the NYG as well?.....I could see Eli easily passing for 400 yards on this D,even if that doesn't produce a victory for them

I do think Eli will have more yards passing and he will hit several 30 yard bombs, but Brady with a higher passing rating when it's over.

I don't think either defense will contain either WR corps

The difference to me in it not being a 70 point total score is that there WILL be turnovers and I think it could be one of those sloppy games where momentum switches back and forth with the winning team making more out of turnovers than the other.

I think there will be 7 total turnovers in this game,either fumbles,strip sacks or INTs

I expect an ugly game with the Pats less ugly.

I wrote a lot about how Manning hasn't done real well vs our D, what I think the game plan will be and how I think it is a perfect gameplan for this O, QB and game.
I think there is no chance Eli complete SEVERAL 30+ passes, and if he does, we won't win.

 

[Rob0729]

I want to know why #1 does not pertain to the NYG as well?.....I could see Eli easily passing for 400 yards on this D,even if that doesn't produce a victory for them.

People forget that Manning only threw for 250 yards the last time he faced the Pats. Yes, he didn't have Hakeem Nicks (who is injured today), but he got 165 of those 250 yards and both of his TDs on the final two drives after Spikes, Chung, Barrett, and Guyton (although Guyton sucks, it threw Tracy White into the starting role) went down.

Sure, Manning could put up 400 yards, but people forget that the Pats defense shut him down for three quarters the last time the Pats and Giants met a few months ago.

 

[patsinthesnow]

2) While we have lost 2 straight to the Giants, lost in that is that BB has schemed very well for Eli. Last game, aside from a 10 yard drive after a fumble, the Giants had 3 points on the board with 7 minutes left in the game, even after getting 3 other turnovers. All that changed after that, really, was they figured out how to get pi calls and exploit special team players forced into duty. In SB 42, the Giants also had just 3 points on the board until the last 2 drives and without the helmet catch or any one of the dropped Ints would have scored 10 all day.

This is a very good point Andy, that has seemed to be overlooked. Our defense has had their number in both games, playing like the 03 defense. The problem in both games was our offense blew chunks for too long to build a sizeable lead on them.

In Superbowl 42, the defense was blown open when Harrison let a 15 yard Boss catch escape for about 40 yards.

In week 9, the defense blew open when Brady fumbled for the 3rd turnover, they had the ball at the 10, and Haynesworth gave up giving a freebee TD.

Hopefully the trend continues and they have a whopping 3 points to start the 4th quarter!

 

[jbb9s]

Welker has had about 30 catches and 350 yards in the last 3 Giants game. They can't stop him. They will also be focused on the TEs. I bet Welker gets the MVP.

 

[nabwong]

I'm expecting a blow out. There's no reason for it but I've been feeling this way for a week. It's the same feeling I had before the broncos game.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I really hope you're right but I think it comes down to the wire again. These two teams are very evenly matched IMO and even if one could pull away, the refs probably won't let it happen. There hasn't been a true SB blowout in a long time, 2002 is the last one I can recall. And our defense is known to get a little too comfortable with big leads, I don't think I'd feel truly safe with even a 3 score lead.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm expecting a blow out. There's no reason for it but I've been feeling this way for a week. It's the same feeling I had before the broncos game.

I'm kind of with you, but in a big game we will get really, really conservative with a big lead. They can make it closer because we will be playing vs the clock not the Giants, because that is the right thing to do.
As I said I expect something around 24-7 at half and 38-24 final. It will feel like a blowout though.

 

[ivanvamp]

Welker has had about 30 catches and 350 yards in the last 3 Giants game. They can't stop him. They will also be focused on the TEs. I bet Welker gets the MVP.

That was my prediction as well. Pats 27-23.

 

[PittPatriot]

I'm kind of with you, but in a big game we will get really, really conservative with a big lead. They can make it closer because we will be playing vs the clock not the Giants, because that is the right thing to do.
As I said I expect something around 24-7 at half and 38-24 final. It will feel like a blowout though.

I hope you are right, Andy.

I expected a blowout in SB42 and got nervous when they stayed close the whole game. Now, I don't mind a close game as I feel this team has the stones to pull it out.
To me it all comes down to TB. This team is built for the offense to score 30 and the D to NOT GIVE UP 30. No matter how the game ends, if the Offense does not get its 30, I put the loss on them. My little crystal ball says:

Pats 33-23

 

[PittPatriot]

I really hope you're right but I think it comes down to the wire again. These two teams are very evenly matched IMO and even if one could pull away, the refs probably won't let it happen. There hasn't been a true SB blowout in a long time, 2002 is the last one I can recall. And our defense is known to get a little too comfortable with big leads, I don't think I'd feel truly safe with even a 3 score lead.

In SB42, going into the final minutes, I felt comfy with a 4 point lead…not so much with a 3 point lead. Little did I know it would not even matter.
I agree though, we need some separation going into the final 5 minutes of the game or it will only give Eli more confidence. Once was luck…twice is a trend…3rd time would be downright embarrassing.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

In SB42, going into the final minutes, I felt comfy with a 4 point lead…not so much with a 3 point lead. Little did I know it would not even matter.
I agree though, we need some separation going into the final 5 minutes of the game or it will only give Eli more confidence. Once was luck…twice is a trend…3rd time would be downright embarrassing.

Losing another heartbreaker to Manning and to an arrogant group who ran their mouths leading all the way up to kickoff would be awful. Got to think Brady and BB can't let this happen

 

[PittPatriot]

Losing another heartbreaker to Manning and to an arrogant group who ran their mouths leading all the way up to kickoff would be awful. Got to think Brady and BB can't let this happen

I still have visions of the "Stomp" by Strahan in their SB Parade. You're right…I am sure Tom and BB have thought about this for 4 years.

 

[ahmed]

Pats 42
Giants 21

 

[nabwong]

I'm kind of with you, but in a big game we will get really, really conservative with a big lead. They can make it closer because we will be playing vs the clock not the Giants, because that is the right thing to do.
As I said I expect something around 24-7 at half and 38-24 final. It will feel like a blowout though.

That sounds about right to me. A big difference was Brady had an ankle injury in the last superbowl and this time, he is relatively injury free. I think we'll start with no huddle right off the bat.

 

[vyrago]

That sounds about right to me. A big difference was Brady had an ankle injury in the last superbowl and this time, he is relatively injury free. I think we'll start with no huddle right off the bat.

It seems to me that people keep forgetting Brady's injury. While no gazelle to begin with, Brady is pretty good at sliding around in the pocket, but he was noticeably less mobile in that game.