Predictions

[stcjones]

After 12 months of watching the Jets appear to place more value in convincing people they are going to be good than actually working on being good, I see virtually zero value in predictions.
However, with all of the 8-8 to 9-7 predictions for the Patriots, something just makes no sense to me.
We have Tom Brady, and Tom Brady has a fair amount of weapons.
Tom Brady has the highest QB winning percentage in NFL history. Our coach is not a slouch.
If you are going to say that this is an 8-8 team you would have to think its about a 4-12 team without Brady, right?
Where is this team 4-12 caliber?
I know everyone wants to take potshots at the D, but they did allow the 5th fewest points. Factor in whatever statistical reasoning to belittle that, but they allowed the 5th fewest points. Add a TD a game and that is still better than 4-12 caliber.
We were 12th in rushing, near the top in pass protection.

Do people really thing that this team totally sucks, so bad that they drag Brady down to mediocrity, or that Brady can only drag them up to mediocrity?

On the other hand the Jets with the 2nd worst starting QB from the entire league last year, are somehow the preseason darlings.
For the Jets to be better than the Patriots, I would have to think that if you switched Brady and Sanchez you would have the Jets at 15-1 and the Pats at 1-15.

I think way, way, way too much is being made out of the misconception that 2009 was part of a steady decline rather than a team that just underperformed because its most important player hadn't played a football game for a year.

Thoughts?

I think that we are dealing with an OL is still very questionable, especially without Mankins and a young overall defense that will need time to grow. We will be weak in secondary and who is going to rush the QB? Combine that with the toughest schedule in the league.....and lastly our RB situation....again....and I think 9-7, maybe 10-6.....maybe even 8-8....is not being unrealistic......

 

[Mainefan]

We appear to have two tight ends who can catch and block.

We've picked up a couple of terrific WRs.

We seem to have some strong new blood among the linebackers.

Apparently, our defensive backfield is better.

So why would we do worse this year than we did last year?

 

[townes]

This is a better team than they have had the past 2 seasons and my prediction is 11-5, Division Champs and a return to the AFC Championship. My gut tells me they win the SB this season but there is no way to ever know how the season will play out.

QB-Brady has his best season. He won't surpass his 2007 numbers but it will be his best performance as Patriots QB.

RB-By committee, a little better overall and more productive where it counts, Red Zone and 3rd down conversions.

TE-Much improved and significant part of their offense.

OL-Improved by young players. Mankins will be traded and that's a big loss, but they can overcome the loss of a guard.

WR-Much improved, big contributions from the young players-Edelman, Tate, Price, less reliance on Welker and Moss. Price provides deep threat they have lacked since Stallworth left.

DL-Better than 09' with development of Pryor and additions of Warren and Lewis. Hopefully Weston, Deaderick, or Richard surprise and one steps up as pryor did last season. Brace to IR.

LB-Big improvement. Mayo takes control of defense and overall strength is improved by subtraction of Thomas and additions of Spikes and Cunningham. Belichik will use a variety of rotations and schemes where Guyton, Spikes, and Cunningham all spend time on the edge.

DB-Most talented group in a long long time, and i think the performance will show it. the defense will be the best since SB wins.

ST-Addition of Mesko gives them a big foot and helps the defense. Gostkowski is a top 3 kicker. Coverage units have best season in years.



Obviously i'm really optimistic about where this team is headed and believe belichik has been building them right the past couple of years. i think they are poised for another 4-5 years of great success.

 

[Wretch]

Not a very impressive list. The Patriots should focus on quality a little bit more. That's what got them their rings. Not stockpiling mostly average players.

If the Jets are so great at managing the draft why do they need to trade for under achieving head cases like Holmes, Cromartie, and Edwards. Then sign FAs retreads like LdT and Damion Woody?

The Jets try to use the draft to cherry pick studs at the expense of overall team depth. That's great until you miss, Gholston, or have injuries. For the most part the Jets have managed to avoid injuries to key players buts that's more luck than design.

The Jets have drafted great players like Harris, Mangold and Revis but I will take the Pats long term approach that is designed to build the best team from 1-53 than the Jets plan to have the best player at 1-10 positions and hope for the best with the rest of the roster. The last decade has proven that the Pats philosophy is the right one.

I have said before and I will say again I will take the Pats roster 1-53 over the Jets 1-53 anytime.

 

[Ring 6]

I think that we are dealing with an OL is still very questionable, especially without Mankins and a young overall defense that will need time to grow. We will be weak in secondary and who is going to rush the QB? Combine that with the toughest schedule in the league.....and lastly our RB situation....again....and I think 9-7, maybe 10-6.....maybe even 8-8....is not being unrealistic......

So you figure minus Brady we have 3-13 talent, basically the worst in the NFL?
Because of the D that allowed the 5th fewest points and the OL that was in the very worst possible descrition in the top 1/3 of the league? Interesting.

 

[Rob0729]

I just think poor drafting is finally catching up with the Pats. You saw that last year, and I think their decline will continue this year (hence my 9-7 prediction).

The fact that this team goes 11-5 with Cassel (much easier schedule, granted) and then declines to 10-6 a year later with Brady back is a glimpse. There are cracks in the armor.

So the subpar drafting is my reason for putting the Pats third in the division. Their philosophy as of late has been quantity over quality. If this class is a disappointment, they will be setback even more.

Also, it's obvious the Jets have improved as well as the Dolphins. So they're in a much tougher division now. At the end of the day, I think it's a toss up to decide where the Jets, Dolphins, and Pats rank in the AFCE. You could make the case that ANY of them wins the division,

I still don't know if the Jets or Dolphins really improved.

I still question if the Jets did damage to their running game and it looks like they want to throw it more with the addition of Holmes and Coles and that could be a negative to their offense.

The Dolphins lost their starting NT (and when Ferguson went down last year their defense fell apart) with no replacement and their two leading sackers and starting OLB tandem. That may be a lot to overcome.

As for the Pats' records from 2008 to 2009. That argument is weak. Plenty of teams improve yet have worse records than the previous year. Last year's schedule was harder than the year before and Brady was playing with a broken finger and three ribs for the second half of the season. Besides, the Pats were playing for nothing vs. the Texans and the Texans were playing for their first winning season of their franchise's history so if they were they might have been 11-5 last year.

 

[Rob0729]

Come on, now. Every team has their busts. The Ghost has been more monumental than others however.

The Jets have a great recent track record when it comes to drafting. They got two huge pieces to the OL in '06, Mangold and Ferguson. Revis and Harris in '07. Those are four HUGE pieces of the team; the so-called "core four". Then in '08 you have the one really bad draft pick in Gholston, but a very good pass catching tight end in Dustin Keller. In 2009 they were able to snatch up their future franchise QB who helped the team get to the AFC Championship game in his rookie year. Laydowns or not, he got them there and they were within 30 minutes from a SB. Shonn Greene in '09 also. So there you have some MAJOR team pieces.

Now, let's look at the same time period for the Pats. Starting in '06, Laurence Maroney in the first round who has been a pretty big disappointment so far. Then Chad Jackson who was an outright bust. Stephen Gostkowski was the best pick of that draft for NE. 2007 was a historically bad draft for NE. Only one player has had success, the rest pretty much nobodies; Brandon Meriweather. Jerod Mayo was an excellent pick in 2008. He is in position to be one of the better ILB's in the league for the next decade. Wheatley has been mediocre at best. Crable was a disaster. Kevin O'Connell is no longer with the team. Wilhite and Slater are JAG's at best, if you even want to call them that. 2009 was an interesting year. Chung and Brace showed next to nothing in their rookie years, but we still have to wait a little longer to see how they pan out. Butler looks to have been a solid pick, not great. Vollmer is excellent and should be a monster for a while. He'll replace Light very soon. The rest are unknown save for Edelman, who looks to be a good player.

So my conclusion is that the Jets have drafted elite players recently (mainly the core four, the rest are yet to be seen). The Pats have drafted mostly JAG's at best with a few good to very good (Mayo and Vollmer) players sprinkled in.

This is why the Jets' stock is rising, and the Pats' stock is falling.

This is all an opinion. No need to attack me. Just want to discuss this with mature football fans.

I think the Jets drafting is overrated. Yes, they have had some huge hits like Revis, Mangold, and Harris (won't include Ferguson because I still maintain he is overrated); but at the expense of depth on their team. Can you name any area that the Jets are really deep at a position? Some areas like d-line they barely have good enough starters. The Jets have a rash of injuries and they are in trouble. Eventhough they lost Jenkins and Washington last year, they were lucky enough not to lose a lot of players at different positions for multiple games over the season.

 

[Rob0729]

Let's face it. People have been predicting the demise of the Patriots since they won the Super Bowl in the 2001 season. I will believe it when I see it. It will happen some day.

I think media and fans are easily enticed by shiny objects. People forget that the Steelers gave Holmes and the Chargers gave Cromartie away for nothing. There is a reason for that. Holmes is a lockerroom cancer who might be a product of Roethlisberger anway. Cromartie is living off his production in a half a season two years ago and most Chargers fans will tell you he is a boom or bust player who gambles too much and can allow a 60 TD play as easily as he can make a acrobatic interception.

I think the Pats will improve. They have spent a lot of effort to rebuild the defense. Last year was a changing of the guards and it will go up from their. The Pats may not have as many wins as last year, but I think they will be a better team. Also, Moss in a contract year seems to have been doing wonders for him. Unlike last year, Brady will have more than two passing targets at any given time during the game.

 

[Sivy]

I just think poor drafting is finally catching up with the Pats. You saw that last year, and I think their decline will continue this year (hence my 9-7 prediction).

The fact that this team goes 11-5 with Cassel (much easier schedule, granted) and then declines to 10-6 a year later with Brady back is a glimpse. There are cracks in the armor.

So the subpar drafting is my reason for putting the Pats third in the division. Their philosophy as of late has been quantity over quality. If this class is a disappointment, they will be setback even more.

Also, it's obvious the Jets have improved as well as the Dolphins. So they're in a much tougher division now. At the end of the day, I think it's a toss up to decide where the Jets, Dolphins, and Pats rank in the AFCE. You could make the case that ANY of them wins the division,

The jets have done nothing to improve

 

[AzPatsFan]

Putting any team that drafted Vernon Gholston over another team because of poor drafting is hilarious.

Or Mr(s.) Robertson from Kaintucky too!

 

[AzPatsFan]

Despite the wishful thinking, the Dolphins are still rebuilding. Henne needs another year; as does their WR corps. As does their OLBs corps; as does their DL corps; and their Safeties corps too.

The Jets are a figment of a a Fan base so desperate for a winner that Hope-&-Change like in 2008, is outrunning Reality.

The 2009 edition of the Patriots was the low point of Rebuilding, when they finally stripped the old Defense down, and said Adios to the Old timers. Everything else for the next 3-4 years, is only going to be much better. Albeit with proviso, that TB & BB are still alive and kicking.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Drafting, not trading was what I was evaluating. Otherwise, I'd include Jenkins, Holmes, Cromartie, etc. in my post.

Good point on my evaluation of Keller, after all I am a homer .

Wow

No wonder the Jets win the Super Bowl every August.

Who would ever have known that Holmes and Cromartie were great Jets pickups before ever playing a game or that Jenkins was so great after spending over half the time on IR.

Being a Jets reporter has to be the greatest job in the world. Nothing is too dumb for the fan base.

I don't even think the Douche Awry or Mey, Slo would come up with that.

 

[patsfan13]

There were a couple of weak drafts, the last 2 have been outstanding and the team has reloaded for a strong run. The wailing of the Jets fans this year will be a joy to behold.

 

[Bostonian1962]

After 12 months of watching the Jets appear to place more value in convincing people they are going to be good than actually working on being good, I see virtually zero value in predictions.
However, with all of the 8-8 to 9-7 predictions for the Patriots, something just makes no sense to me.
We have Tom Brady, and Tom Brady has a fair amount of weapons.
Tom Brady has the highest QB winning percentage in NFL history. Our coach is not a slouch.
If you are going to say that this is an 8-8 team you would have to think its about a 4-12 team without Brady, right?
Where is this team 4-12 caliber?
I know everyone wants to take potshots at the D, but they did allow the 5th fewest points. Factor in whatever statistical reasoning to belittle that, but they allowed the 5th fewest points. Add a TD a game and that is still better than 4-12 caliber.
We were 12th in rushing, near the top in pass protection.

Do people really thing that this team totally sucks, so bad that they drag Brady down to mediocrity, or that Brady can only drag them up to mediocrity?

On the other hand the Jets with the 2nd worst starting QB from the entire league last year, are somehow the preseason darlings.
For the Jets to be better than the Patriots, I would have to think that if you switched Brady and Sanchez you would have the Jets at 15-1 and the Pats at 1-15.

I think way, way, way too much is being made out of the misconception that 2009 was part of a steady decline rather than a team that just underperformed because its most important player hadn't played a football game for a year.

Thoughts?

AJ, all great points. I've read all the negativity you've read. If I were to sum up what I've read, and where the negativity comes from it's probably that:

1. Pats have, on paper, a VERY difficult schedule.
2. I think some of it comes from the non-stop mention of Brady isn't getting younger, and he's in a contract despute.
3. Some of it is Mankins' hold out.
4. Alot of the Jets love/Pats hate too is based on what's the last thing people saw. The Pats getting whipped at home by the Ravens, and the Jets deep run in the Playoffs.
5. Finally, all you hear is the Patriots were horrible at rushing the passer last year, and did little to fix that.

Bottom line though AJ is, don't sweat the "experts". They are seldom correct. Tell me one expert out there that even knows who Cunningham is, or even knows that one of the worst punting teams in the NFL last year, now has the highest rated college punter on their squad, or that Warren played with an injury last year, or that has a clue about Tate and Price, or Gronk/Hernandez. These negative slants are not worth the paper they are written on, for real.

 

[AzPatsFan]

nice analysis but you totally forgot about Brandon Tate and Tyrone Mckenzie. How can you say the Pats' draft is bad? Look at this yeart's draft as well. We've got a major talent infusion.

Tell me about Gholston, Robertson, Kellen Clemons, and all the picks you traded to get the "Core Four" and the picks traded for the "Busted Three".

Teams used to talk of a "Five Year Rebuilding Plan". In the past two drafts, the Pats have had as many high picks and total picks, as in four complete regular Drafts, with lots of successes, the requisite talent acquisition for such successful Plans.

And the previous three drafts roundly criticized by Pats Fans for being below average, because they only produced Maroney, and four pro-bowlers in Meriwether, Moss, Welker, and Gostkowski; not great, but hardly chicken feathers either. Meanwhile the Jets have been trading entire drafts for one or two players annually. It is how you got your "Core Four".

Not that it affects this year, but the equivalent of Year Five & Year Six happens in the next Draft as well. It is symptomatic of how your inferior management can't catch up.

 

[eagle eye]

They have declined a lot since the 16-0 season. This was the essence of my longer post. Mediocre drafting is catching up with them. In '06 and '07, at the start of their poor drafting, they were still an elite team. They have not been elite since, and that is due to poor drafting.

Define 'elite' team.

After you have done the above,

Who are the elite teams in the NFL right now?

 

[Rob0729]

From what I can see the Pats have had exactly two bad drafts since their last Super Bowl.

2005
Produced four starters (all started on the 2007 team that went 18-1 including Pro Bowler Logan Mankins) and Matt Cassel who started all of 2008 and netted the Pats a 2009 second round draft pick.

2006

Overall bad draft. Maroney and Goskowski are contributors. O'Callahan was a back up. Thomas was a key role player in the Saints' Super Bowl season, but the Pats let him go.

2007

Generally considered a bad draft, but I disagree. People talk about all the draft picks that didn't make the team, but six of their nine picks were in the sixth and seventh rounds and on a team that went 18-1 most were likely not to make the team even before camp started. Although I don't consider Moss and Welker draft picks, I do consider the draft picks they gave up count against this draft. So picks from this draft produced three Pro Bowlers (one drafted and two traded for).

2008

Overall bad. Mayo is a good pick. Wilhite might end up being a good nickel. Injuries seem to have killed Wheatley's and Crable's chances of being productive. We did net a few picks last year that could be players.

2009

Vollmer looks like a great pick. Chung and Butler look to be starters this year. Edelman was a great find. McKenzie and Tate are getting rave reviews in camp and look to be be impact role players after coming off of injured seasons. Pryor is great value where he was picked up. Ohrnberger is in the mix as a back up. If Brace could practice, he might end up be a contributor too.

2010

Obviously way too soon to tell, but looking to be a good draft. Spikes and Hernandez are getting great reviews and both could start. Gronkowski will likely start. Mesko looks to give the Pats something they haven't had a long, long time - a punter who can kick consistently. McCourty could get significant time at CB (if not win a starting job by the end of the season) and might be our kick returner. Cunningham is expected to get plenty of playing time. Price has gotten some decent reviews, but not what Tate is getting.

 

[BrewCity Cheesehead]

Define 'elite' team.

After you have done the above,

Who are the elite teams in the NFL right now?

I think Mr. Gut is being a bit pessimistic. Within everyone's fan base is at least one guy who wants to ruin everyone's fun just so there's the possibility that he can say "I told you so" at the end of the season.

I like the Pats to win the AFC East, though I do see a VERY tough schedule, so I don't think they'll get a first round bye. I'd guess 10 or 11 wins.

However, if you guys are looking for an unbiased opinion from someone who probably doesn't know what he's talking about (me).... here is what I posted on one of the packer boards for my prediction of the top 10 teams in the NFL:

1. Packers - Yeah, its a homer pick, I admit, but if I wasn't a Packers fan, I'd still have a hard time keeping them out of the top 5 (maybe #3).
2. Ravens - they have a good off-season and seem to be ready to make a jump this season.
3. Saints - Obviously coming off a Superbowl win. I feel bad for ranking them this low.
4. Cowboys - Have all the pieces in place, though I tend to agree that Wade Phillips is sort of a joke.
5. Vikings - Contingent on Brett Favre being back. Too bad they'll have to settle for the wild card this year.
6. Colts - Peyton is the best QB in the league in my opinion and they almost had a 2nd Superbowl win.... but you know what usually happens to the Superbowl loser.
7. Patriots - I think they win their division, but with an unimpressive record as the Jets & Dolphins will be right behind them. Tough competition will steal a couple wins from them.
8. Chargers - I like Rivers a lot. Another team that is ready to make the next step, but never does, and won't in 2010, but they'll at least make it interesting.
9. Jets - I am buying into their hype just a little bit. I'm not crazy about their offense and I don't think the LT signing really helps them much, but they have an amazing defense that will carry their team.
10. Eagles - A solid team. Kolb will eventually surprise some people, but not until the 2nd half of the season. They'll be a couple games behind Dallas, but close enough to make it a very competitive division.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think Mr. Gut is being a bit pessimistic. Within everyone's fan base is at least one guy who wants to ruin everyone's fun just so there's the possibility that he can say "I told you so" at the end of the season.

I like the Pats to win the AFC East, though I do see a VERY tough schedule, so I don't think they'll get a first round bye. I'd guess 10 or 11 wins.

However, if you guys are looking for an unbiased opinion from someone who probably doesn't know what he's talking about (me).... here is what I posted on one of the packer boards for my prediction of the top 10 teams in the NFL:

1. Packers - Yeah, its a homer pick, I admit, but if I wasn't a Packers fan, I'd still have a hard time keeping them out of the top 5 (maybe #3).
2. Ravens - they have a good off-season and seem to be ready to make a jump this season.
3. Saints - Obviously coming off a Superbowl win. I feel bad for ranking them this low.
4. Cowboys - Have all the pieces in place, though I tend to agree that Wade Phillips is sort of a joke.
5. Vikings - Contingent on Brett Favre being back. Too bad they'll have to settle for the wild card this year.
6. Colts - Peyton is the best QB in the league in my opinion and they almost had a 2nd Superbowl win.... but you know what usually happens to the Superbowl loser.
7. Patriots - I think they win their division, but with an unimpressive record as the Jets & Dolphins will be right behind them. Tough competition will steal a couple wins from them.
8. Chargers - I like Rivers a lot. Another team that is ready to make the next step, but never does, and won't in 2010, but they'll at least make it interesting.
9. Jets - I am buying into their hype just a little bit. I'm not crazy about their offense and I don't think the LT signing really helps them much, but they have an amazing defense that will carry their team.
10. Eagles - A solid team. Kolb will eventually surprise some people, but not until the 2nd half of the season. They'll be a couple games behind Dallas, but close enough to make it a very competitive division.

The Packers aren't even the best team in their own division, yet you've got them as the best team in the NFL?

Oh, well....

:welcome:

 

[BrewCity Cheesehead]

The Packers aren't even the best team in their own division, yet you've got them as the best team in the NFL?

Oh, well....

:welcome:

Thanks for the welcome...

As far as the Pack at #1... if you read the comment, I did admit that it is somewhat of a homer pick, but would have a hard time not putting them in the top 5. And as far as picking the Packers in front of the Vikings, I'm not the only one:
Peter King at Sports Illustrated
Whatif Sports Simulation
The football Expert
Pete Prisco at CBSsports.com
Jason La Canfora at NFL.com
Some other guy at NFL.com
Las Vegas Odds makers have Pack with edge on Vikes

I'm not even the only one with Green Bay #1 (again, I admit I'm a homer, but I'm not far off of reality). Not that I like having my team be the popular pick to win the superbowl, as it can become a distraction for the team. Its practically a jinx to top Peter King's ranking. All teams have questions, but there seems to be very few for the Pack this offseason. IMO, they are easy to defend as the best team in the NFC North:

-One of the best defenses in the league. #1 run defense last year, #2 overall. Woodson is top dog in a ball-hawking D-backfield. Expect INT's galore as usual. Very good depth at all positions.

-One of the best offenses in the league (#6 in 2009). Make no mistake that Aaron Rodgers is an elite QB. And they are 4-deep at WR. They answered most the O-line questions they had at the beginning of 2009 and ended the season 7-1 after getting both starting tackles back from injury.

-Fantasy owners take note: Jermichael Finley at TE is a matchup nightmare. He broke out the 2nd half of 2009 after he came back from his knee sprain. Will be one of the top TE's in the league in 2010.

Viking though having a good team, have many questions:

-Peterson's fumbling problem. And they lost the #2 RB (Chester Taylor).

-Favre: Will he be able to compete at 41 years old? (he did become a grandpa this offseason) Will the lack of any training camp time impact his performance or his timing with the WR's? Will the favoritism that the coaches/front office show towards Favre affect the chemistry of the team? Has it already with both Adrian Peterson and Sidney Rice skipping out of mandatory mini-camp without permission? Can Favre come back after the 3rd preseason game and "Say, I'll do everything within my power to win the superbowl" and have a single teammate believe him? (if he was serious he would have been there for all of training camp)

-Vikings secondary has plenty of questions with mediocre safeties and injury problems at CB. Doesn't really strike fear in any offense.