Predictions

[Ring 6]

After 12 months of watching the Jets appear to place more value in convincing people they are going to be good than actually working on being good, I see virtually zero value in predictions.
However, with all of the 8-8 to 9-7 predictions for the Patriots, something just makes no sense to me.
We have Tom Brady, and Tom Brady has a fair amount of weapons.
Tom Brady has the highest QB winning percentage in NFL history. Our coach is not a slouch.
If you are going to say that this is an 8-8 team you would have to think its about a 4-12 team without Brady, right?
Where is this team 4-12 caliber?
I know everyone wants to take potshots at the D, but they did allow the 5th fewest points. Factor in whatever statistical reasoning to belittle that, but they allowed the 5th fewest points. Add a TD a game and that is still better than 4-12 caliber.
We were 12th in rushing, near the top in pass protection.

Do people really thing that this team totally sucks, so bad that they drag Brady down to mediocrity, or that Brady can only drag them up to mediocrity?

On the other hand the Jets with the 2nd worst starting QB from the entire league last year, are somehow the preseason darlings.
For the Jets to be better than the Patriots, I would have to think that if you switched Brady and Sanchez you would have the Jets at 15-1 and the Pats at 1-15.

I think way, way, way too much is being made out of the misconception that 2009 was part of a steady decline rather than a team that just underperformed because its most important player hadn't played a football game for a year.

Thoughts?

 

[Sciz]

Change five of the approximately two-thousand plays last season, and the Patriots are 15-1. That is how close the team was to being considered elite. The ability to close out games was the problem. Having a healthy Brady should help out greatly, along with having Sam Aiken not catching passes from him.

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

I just think poor drafting is finally catching up with the Pats. You saw that last year, and I think their decline will continue this year (hence my 9-7 prediction).

The fact that this team goes 11-5 with Cassel (much easier schedule, granted) and then declines to 10-6 a year later with Brady back is a glimpse. There are cracks in the armor.

So the subpar drafting is my reason for putting the Pats third in the division. Their philosophy as of late has been quantity over quality. If this class is a disappointment, they will be setback even more.

Also, it's obvious the Jets have improved as well as the Dolphins. So they're in a much tougher division now. At the end of the day, I think it's a toss up to decide where the Jets, Dolphins, and Pats rank in the AFCE. You could make the case that ANY of them wins the division,

 

[Sciz]

Putting any team that drafted Vernon Gholston over another team because of poor drafting is hilarious.

 

[BradyFTW!]

After 12 months of watching the Jets appear to place more value in convincing people they are going to be good than actually working on being good, I see virtually zero value in predictions.
However, with all of the 8-8 to 9-7 predictions for the Patriots, something just makes no sense to me.
We have Tom Brady, and Tom Brady has a fair amount of weapons.
Tom Brady has the highest QB winning percentage in NFL history. Our coach is not a slouch.
If you are going to say that this is an 8-8 team you would have to think its about a 4-12 team without Brady, right?
Where is this team 4-12 caliber?
I know everyone wants to take potshots at the D, but they did allow the 5th fewest points. Factor in whatever statistical reasoning to belittle that, but they allowed the 5th fewest points. Add a TD a game and that is still better than 4-12 caliber.
We were 12th in rushing, near the top in pass protection.

Do people really thing that this team totally sucks, so bad that they drag Brady down to mediocrity, or that Brady can only drag them up to mediocrity?

On the other hand the Jets with the 2nd worst starting QB from the entire league last year, are somehow the preseason darlings.
For the Jets to be better than the Patriots, I would have to think that if you switched Brady and Sanchez you would have the Jets at 15-1 and the Pats at 1-15.

I think way, way, way too much is being made out of the misconception that 2009 was part of a steady decline rather than a team that just underperformed because its most important player hadn't played a football game for a year.

Thoughts?

Kirwan and Lombardi don't get where the hell this negativity is coming from either. I'll take their perspectives over a bunch of proven-incompetent hacks any day.

 

[Ring 6]

I just think poor drafting is finally catching up with the Pats. You saw that last year, and I think their decline will continue this year (hence my 9-7 prediction).[/quote[

Considering that draft choices from the last few years will start or play major roles at:
WR, WR, T, TE, TE, OLB, ILB, ILB, CB, CB, S, S
which is 12 positions, I think you have it backwards. It is not decline continuing it is growth beginning.

The fact that this team goes 11-5 with Cassel (much easier schedule, granted) and then declines to 10-6 a year later with Brady back is a glimpse. There are cracks in the armor.

11-5 with Cassell included 3 20+ point losses, and a point differential of 101.
10-6 with Brady included, first a week 17 loss that was a 14 point lead when Brady was pulled. (considering Cassell was actually 10-5, its really hard to make a case that the record legitimately was worse) and 4 of the other 5 losses by a total of 10 points, a 142 point differential and 1 loss by more than a TD.
Get some facts before you spout off ignorantly

So the subpar drafting is my reason for putting the Pats third in the division. Their philosophy as of late has been quantity over quality. If this class is a disappointment, they will be setback even more.

Blah, blah, blah

Also, it's obvious the Jets have improved as well as the Dolphins. So they're in a much tougher division now. At the end of the day, I think it's a toss up to decide where the Jets, Dolphins, and Pats rank in the AFCE. You could make the case that ANY of them wins the division,

It certainly is not obvious the Jets have improved.
Your offense subtracted a starting RB, and added an over the hill RB.
Subtracted its best run blocker and added a rookie moving up from 1AA and changing positions.
Added a WR meaning that the 2nd worst starting QB in the NFL last season will probably be asked to throw the ball more while no longer having the advantage of the top ranked runnng game.

Defensively you replaced a medicore corner with another nediocre corner.
You lost your starter at DE with no viable replacement.
You added an over the hill OLB for name value.
Oh yeah and your best player, by far is sitting home.
Not to mention that each of your opponents has a full season of film on the schemes that were the key to your defense, so the blitzing that was so effective will not be as effective.
Clearly improved? Yeah, rght.

And Miami added 2 players. Big deal. They were a 7-9 team. They have a weak defese weakened by losing their top 2 pass rushers, and they have Chad Henne at QB.

The thing is you look at the Jets season where everything went right and expect improvement compared to the Pats season where everything went wrong and you expect decline.
The gap still exists and as you will see starting in about a month, it has widened.

 

[Patspsycho]

I just think poor drafting is finally catching up with the Pats. You saw that last year, and I think their decline will continue this year (hence my 9-7 prediction).

The fact that this team goes 11-5 with Cassel (much easier schedule, granted) and then declines to 10-6 a year later with Brady back is a glimpse. There are cracks in the armor.

So the subpar drafting is my reason for putting the Pats third in the division. Their philosophy as of late has been quantity over quality. If this class is a disappointment, they will be setback even more.

Also, it's obvious the Jets have improved as well as the Dolphins. So they're in a much tougher division now. At the end of the day, I think it's a toss up to decide where the Jets, Dolphins, and Pats rank in the AFCE. You could make the case that ANY of them wins the division,

Oh yeah, Chung, Butler, Vollmer, Edelman, Tate, McKenzie, Pryor.. yeah that's poor drafting.

Terrible.

How did we guys even beat you?

 

[BradyFTW!]

Change five of the approximately two-thousand plays last season, and the Patriots are 15-1. That is how close the team was to being considered elite. The ability to close out games was the problem. Having a healthy Brady should help out greatly, along with having Sam Aiken not catching passes from him.

Change 2 others and they're 8-8 (although you could probably argue 9-7 since they wouldn't lay down for the Texans in that case). Either way, it just reinforces that the margin between .500 and elite is so narrow that trying to predict records is just a joke. You can easily miss by 3 games despite being spot on in your overall analysis.

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

Putting any team that drafted Vernon Gholston over another team because of poor drafting is hilarious.

Come on, now. Every team has their busts. The Ghost has been more monumental than others however.

The Jets have a great recent track record when it comes to drafting. They got two huge pieces to the OL in '06, Mangold and Ferguson. Revis and Harris in '07. Those are four HUGE pieces of the team; the so-called "core four". Then in '08 you have the one really bad draft pick in Gholston, but a very good pass catching tight end in Dustin Keller. In 2009 they were able to snatch up their future franchise QB who helped the team get to the AFC Championship game in his rookie year. Laydowns or not, he got them there and they were within 30 minutes from a SB. Shonn Greene in '09 also. So there you have some MAJOR team pieces.

Now, let's look at the same time period for the Pats. Starting in '06, Laurence Maroney in the first round who has been a pretty big disappointment so far. Then Chad Jackson who was an outright bust. Stephen Gostkowski was the best pick of that draft for NE. 2007 was a historically bad draft for NE. Only one player has had success, the rest pretty much nobodies; Brandon Meriweather. Jerod Mayo was an excellent pick in 2008. He is in position to be one of the better ILB's in the league for the next decade. Wheatley has been mediocre at best. Crable was a disaster. Kevin O'Connell is no longer with the team. Wilhite and Slater are JAG's at best, if you even want to call them that. 2009 was an interesting year. Chung and Brace showed next to nothing in their rookie years, but we still have to wait a little longer to see how they pan out. Butler looks to have been a solid pick, not great. Vollmer is excellent and should be a monster for a while. He'll replace Light very soon. The rest are unknown save for Edelman, who looks to be a good player.

So my conclusion is that the Jets have drafted elite players recently (mainly the core four, the rest are yet to be seen). The Pats have drafted mostly JAG's at best with a few good to very good (Mayo and Vollmer) players sprinkled in.

This is why the Jets' stock is rising, and the Pats' stock is falling.

This is all an opinion. No need to attack me. Just want to discuss this with mature football fans.

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

Oh yeah, Chung, Butler, Vollmer, Edelman, Tate, McKenzie, Pryor.. yeah that's poor drafting.

Terrible.

How did we guys even beat you?

Not a very impressive list. The Patriots should focus on quality a little bit more. That's what got them their rings. Not stockpiling mostly average players.

 

[Sciz]

Change 2 others and they're 8-8 (although you could probably argue 9-7 since they wouldn't lay down for the Texans in that case). Either way, it just reinforces that the margin between .500 and elite is so narrow that trying to predict records is just a joke. You can easily miss by 3 games despite being spot on in your overall analysis.

Great point. But given that the Pats were leading toward the end of I think every one of those 5 losses, I think that the Patriots not only COULD have won those 5, but SHOULD have won them. Is it week 1 yet? I need Brady and company to show up all the haters already!

 

[Ring 6]

Kirwan and Lombardi don't get where the hell this negativity is coming from either. I'll take their perspectives over a bunch of proven-incompetent hacks any day.

I know the 'one play away from winning 4 other game' crap is crap.
But is it really wrong to say that the Patriots were simply Tom Brady being out of sync due to missing a year away from the just a bit better than 12-4 record they have averaged ever since he took over?

The Patriots are 111-34 with Brady starting. That is about 26 wins to every 8 losses. Now they are giong to be 8-8???
Clearly the offense is better than the average of all of those teams.
The defense allowed the 5th fewest points. Whatever you think of that stat, it doesnt take an offense that is better than the one that has gone 111-34 and drop it to 72-72.

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

I just think poor drafting is finally catching up with the Pats. You saw that last year, and I think their decline will continue this year (hence my 9-7 prediction).[/quote[

Considering that draft choices from the last few years will start or play major roles at:
WR, WR, T, TE, TE, OLB, ILB, ILB, CB, CB, S, S
which is 12 positions, I think you have it backwards. It is not decline continuing it is growth beginning.

11-5 with Cassell included 3 20+ point losses, and a point differential of 101.
10-6 with Brady included, first a week 17 loss that was a 14 point lead when Brady was pulled. (considering Cassell was actually 10-5, its really hard to make a case that the record legitimately was worse) and 4 of the other 5 losses by a total of 10 points, a 142 point differential and 1 loss by more than a TD.
Get some facts before you spout off ignorantly



Blah, blah, blah


It certainly is not obvious the Jets have improved.
Your offense subtracted a starting RB, and added an over the hill RB.
Subtracted its best run blocker and added a rookie moving up from 1AA and changing positions.
Added a WR meaning that the 2nd worst starting QB in the NFL last season will probably be asked to throw the ball more while no longer having the advantage of the top ranked runnng game.

Defensively you replaced a medicore corner with another nediocre corner.
You lost your starter at DE with no viable replacement.
You added an over the hill OLB for name value.
Oh yeah and your best player, by far is sitting home.
Not to mention that each of your opponents has a full season of film on the schemes that were the key to your defense, so the blitzing that was so effective will not be as effective.
Clearly improved? Yeah, rght.

And Miami added 2 players. Big deal. They were a 7-9 team. They have a weak defese weakened by losing their top 2 pass rushers, and they have Chad Henne at QB.

The thing is you look at the Jets season where everything went right and expect improvement compared to the Pats season where everything went wrong and you expect decline.
The gap still exists and as you will see starting in about a month, it has widened.

Andy, it is pretty much agreed upon around the league that the Jets and Dolphins have both vastly improved. You are in the minority in thinking that these teams have not improved.

 

[Kontradiction]

In the Monday Night roundtable a couple of weeks back, I said 12-4. I'm going to stick with that one.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Come on, now. Every team has their busts. The Ghost has been more monumental than others however.

The Jets have a great recent track record when it comes to drafting. They got two huge pieces to the OL in '06, Mangold and Ferguson. Revis and Harris in '07. Those are four HUGE pieces of the team; the so-called "core four". Then in '08 you have the one really bad draft pick in Gholston, but a very good pass catching tight end in Dustin Keller. In 2009 they were able to snatch up their future franchise QB who helped the team get to the AFC Championship game in his rookie year. Laydowns or not, he got them there and they were within 30 minutes from a SB. Shonn Greene in '09 also. So there you have some MAJOR team pieces.

Now, let's look at the same time period for the Pats. Starting in '06, Laurence Maroney in the first round who has been a pretty big disappointment so far. Then Chad Jackson who was an outright bust. Stephen Gostkowski was the best pick of that draft for NE. 2007 was a historically bad draft for NE. Only one player has had success, the rest pretty much nobodies; Brandon Meriweather. Jerod Mayo was an excellent pick in 2008. He is in position to be one of the better ILB's in the league for the next decade. Wheatley has been mediocre at best. Crable was a disaster. Kevin O'Connell is no longer with the team. Wilhite and Slater are JAG's at best, if you even want to call them that. 2009 was an interesting year. Chung and Brace showed next to nothing in their rookie years, but we still have to wait a little longer to see how they pan out. Butler looks to have been a solid pick, not great. Vollmer is excellent and should be a monster for a while. He'll replace Light very soon. The rest are unknown save for Edelman, who looks to be a good player.

So my conclusion is that the Jets have drafted elite players recently (mainly the core four, the rest are yet to be seen). The Pats have drafted mostly JAG's at best with a few good to very good (Mayo and Vollmer) players sprinkled in.

This is why the Jets' stock is rising, and the Pats' stock is falling.

This is all an opinion. No need to attack me. Just want to discuss this with mature football fans.

If Dustin Keller counts as a success (wake me up when he breaks the 50 catch, 600 yard, and/or 5 TD plateaus :rolleyes) then so do Maroney, Meriweather, Moss and Welker (evaluating the 2007 draft without mentioning them is just ******ed), Mayo, Wilhite, Butler, and Vollmer. And be prepared to add McCourty, Chung, McKenzie, Spikes, Hernandez, Gronk, and Cunningham to that list in a hurry.

Only to a Jets fan can a TE who's never had more than 550 yards or 3 TDs be 'very good', while Welker and Moss trades are part of a 'horrendous' draft, Butler is 'solid, not great', and Maroney is a 'pretty big disappointment'. They've all produced on par with, or better than, Keller.

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

If Dustin Keller counts as a success (wake me up when he breaks the 50 catch, 600 yard, and/or 5 TD plateaus :rolleyes) then so do Maroney, Meriweather, Moss and Welker (evaluating the 2007 draft without mentioning them is just ******ed), Mayo, Wilhite, Butler, and Vollmer. And be prepared to add McCourty, Chung, McKenzie, Spikes, Hernandez, Gronk, and Cunningham to that list in a hurry.

Only to a Jets fan can a TE who's never had more than 550 yards or 3 TDs be 'very good', while Welker and Moss trades are part of a 'horrendous' draft, Butler is 'solid, not great', and Maroney is a 'pretty big disappointment'. They've all produced on par with, or better than, Keller.

Drafting, not trading was what I was evaluating. Otherwise, I'd include Jenkins, Holmes, Cromartie, etc. in my post.

Good point on my evaluation of Keller, after all I am a homer .

 

[BradyFTW!]

Andy, it is pretty much agreed upon around the league that the Jets and Dolphins have both vastly improved. You are in the minority in thinking that these teams have not improved.

Define 'around the league'. Try to use credible sources. Mike Lombardi and Peter King, for starters, don't get it, and Pat Kirwan has hinted pretty strongly that he doesn't either. ESPN anchors and idiot bloggers don't count.

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

Define 'around the league'. Try to use credible sources. Mike Lombardi and Peter King, for starters, don't get it, and Pat Kirwan has hinted pretty strongly that he doesn't either.

I really don't want to go digging. You have watched enough NFL coverage over the last 8 months.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Drafting, not trading was what I was evaluating. Otherwise, I'd include Jenkins, Holmes, Cromartie, etc. in my post.

Good point on my evaluation of Keller, after all I am a homer .

When you're evaluating the 2007 draft, it would probably help to include the fact that we traded most of our first-day 2007 picks, don't you think? Otherwise, you're basically criticizing the Pats for the fact that a bunch of second-day picks couldn't make a team that went 16-0. Not really sure how that speaks negatively of the Pats.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I really don't want to go digging. You have watched enough NFL coverage over the last 8 months.

Yeah, I have, I've watched notoriously clueless ESPN anchors who make a yearly ritual out of comically bad predictions anoint the Jets. Most of these guys were crowning them back in 2008 too, and we both know how that turned out. The fact that you're still buying the hype just speaks poorly of you, at this point.