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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by AndyJohnson, Aug 6, 2010.

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  1. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    After 12 months of watching the Jets appear to place more value in convincing people they are going to be good than actually working on being good, I see virtually zero value in predictions.
    However, with all of the 8-8 to 9-7 predictions for the Patriots, something just makes no sense to me.
    We have Tom Brady, and Tom Brady has a fair amount of weapons.
    Tom Brady has the highest QB winning percentage in NFL history. Our coach is not a slouch.
    If you are going to say that this is an 8-8 team you would have to think its about a 4-12 team without Brady, right?
    Where is this team 4-12 caliber?
    I know everyone wants to take potshots at the D, but they did allow the 5th fewest points. Factor in whatever statistical reasoning to belittle that, but they allowed the 5th fewest points. Add a TD a game and that is still better than 4-12 caliber.
    We were 12th in rushing, near the top in pass protection.

    Do people really thing that this team totally sucks, so bad that they drag Brady down to mediocrity, or that Brady can only drag them up to mediocrity?

    On the other hand the Jets with the 2nd worst starting QB from the entire league last year, are somehow the preseason darlings.
    For the Jets to be better than the Patriots, I would have to think that if you switched Brady and Sanchez you would have the Jets at 15-1 and the Pats at 1-15.

    I think way, way, way too much is being made out of the misconception that 2009 was part of a steady decline rather than a team that just underperformed because its most important player hadn't played a football game for a year.

    Thoughts?
  2. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Change five of the approximately two-thousand plays last season, and the Patriots are 15-1. That is how close the team was to being considered elite. The ability to close out games was the problem. Having a healthy Brady should help out greatly, along with having Sam Aiken not catching passes from him.
  3. Rex Ryan's Gut

    Rex Ryan's Gut Banned

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    I just think poor drafting is finally catching up with the Pats. You saw that last year, and I think their decline will continue this year (hence my 9-7 prediction).

    The fact that this team goes 11-5 with Cassel (much easier schedule, granted) and then declines to 10-6 a year later with Brady back is a glimpse. There are cracks in the armor.

    So the subpar drafting is my reason for putting the Pats third in the division. Their philosophy as of late has been quantity over quality. If this class is a disappointment, they will be setback even more.

    Also, it's obvious the Jets have improved as well as the Dolphins. So they're in a much tougher division now. At the end of the day, I think it's a toss up to decide where the Jets, Dolphins, and Pats rank in the AFCE. You could make the case that ANY of them wins the division,
  4. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Putting any team that drafted Vernon Gholston over another team because of poor drafting is hilarious.
  5. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Kirwan and Lombardi don't get where the hell this negativity is coming from either. I'll take their perspectives over a bunch of proven-incompetent hacks any day.
  6. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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  7. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    Oh yeah, Chung, Butler, Vollmer, Edelman, Tate, McKenzie, Pryor.. yeah that's poor drafting.

    Terrible.

    How did we guys even beat you?
  8. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Change 2 others and they're 8-8 (although you could probably argue 9-7 since they wouldn't lay down for the Texans in that case). Either way, it just reinforces that the margin between .500 and elite is so narrow that trying to predict records is just a joke. You can easily miss by 3 games despite being spot on in your overall analysis.
  9. Rex Ryan's Gut

    Rex Ryan's Gut Banned

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    Come on, now. Every team has their busts. The Ghost has been more monumental than others however.

    The Jets have a great recent track record when it comes to drafting. They got two huge pieces to the OL in '06, Mangold and Ferguson. Revis and Harris in '07. Those are four HUGE pieces of the team; the so-called "core four". Then in '08 you have the one really bad draft pick in Gholston, but a very good pass catching tight end in Dustin Keller. In 2009 they were able to snatch up their future franchise QB who helped the team get to the AFC Championship game in his rookie year. Laydowns or not, he got them there and they were within 30 minutes from a SB. Shonn Greene in '09 also. So there you have some MAJOR team pieces.

    Now, let's look at the same time period for the Pats. Starting in '06, Laurence Maroney in the first round who has been a pretty big disappointment so far. Then Chad Jackson who was an outright bust. Stephen Gostkowski was the best pick of that draft for NE. 2007 was a historically bad draft for NE. Only one player has had success, the rest pretty much nobodies; Brandon Meriweather. Jerod Mayo was an excellent pick in 2008. He is in position to be one of the better ILB's in the league for the next decade. Wheatley has been mediocre at best. Crable was a disaster. Kevin O'Connell is no longer with the team. Wilhite and Slater are JAG's at best, if you even want to call them that. 2009 was an interesting year. Chung and Brace showed next to nothing in their rookie years, but we still have to wait a little longer to see how they pan out. Butler looks to have been a solid pick, not great. Vollmer is excellent and should be a monster for a while. He'll replace Light very soon. The rest are unknown save for Edelman, who looks to be a good player.

    So my conclusion is that the Jets have drafted elite players recently (mainly the core four, the rest are yet to be seen). The Pats have drafted mostly JAG's at best with a few good to very good (Mayo and Vollmer) players sprinkled in.

    This is why the Jets' stock is rising, and the Pats' stock is falling.

    This is all an opinion. No need to attack me. ;) Just want to discuss this with mature football fans.
  10. Rex Ryan's Gut

    Rex Ryan's Gut Banned

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    Not a very impressive list. The Patriots should focus on quality a little bit more. That's what got them their rings. Not stockpiling mostly average players.
  11. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Great point. But given that the Pats were leading toward the end of I think every one of those 5 losses, I think that the Patriots not only COULD have won those 5, but SHOULD have won them. Is it week 1 yet? I need Brady and company to show up all the haters already! :cool:
  12. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I know the 'one play away from winning 4 other game' crap is crap.
    But is it really wrong to say that the Patriots were simply Tom Brady being out of sync due to missing a year away from the just a bit better than 12-4 record they have averaged ever since he took over?

    The Patriots are 111-34 with Brady starting. That is about 26 wins to every 8 losses. Now they are giong to be 8-8???
    Clearly the offense is better than the average of all of those teams.
    The defense allowed the 5th fewest points. Whatever you think of that stat, it doesnt take an offense that is better than the one that has gone 111-34 and drop it to 72-72.
  13. Rex Ryan's Gut

    Rex Ryan's Gut Banned

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  14. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No Jersey Selected

    In the Monday Night roundtable a couple of weeks back, I said 12-4. I'm going to stick with that one.
  15. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    If Dustin Keller counts as a success (wake me up when he breaks the 50 catch, 600 yard, and/or 5 TD plateaus :rolleyes) then so do Maroney, Meriweather, Moss and Welker (evaluating the 2007 draft without mentioning them is just retarded), Mayo, Wilhite, Butler, and Vollmer. And be prepared to add McCourty, Chung, McKenzie, Spikes, Hernandez, Gronk, and Cunningham to that list in a hurry.

    Only to a Jets fan can a TE who's never had more than 550 yards or 3 TDs be 'very good', while Welker and Moss trades are part of a 'horrendous' draft, Butler is 'solid, not great', and Maroney is a 'pretty big disappointment'. They've all produced on par with, or better than, Keller.
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2010
  16. Rex Ryan's Gut

    Rex Ryan's Gut Banned

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    Drafting, not trading was what I was evaluating. Otherwise, I'd include Jenkins, Holmes, Cromartie, etc. in my post.

    Good point on my evaluation of Keller, after all I am a homer :).
  17. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Define 'around the league'. Try to use credible sources. Mike Lombardi and Peter King, for starters, don't get it, and Pat Kirwan has hinted pretty strongly that he doesn't either. ESPN anchors and idiot bloggers don't count.
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2010
  18. Rex Ryan's Gut

    Rex Ryan's Gut Banned

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    I really don't want to go digging. You have watched enough NFL coverage over the last 8 months.
  19. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    When you're evaluating the 2007 draft, it would probably help to include the fact that we traded most of our first-day 2007 picks, don't you think? Otherwise, you're basically criticizing the Pats for the fact that a bunch of second-day picks couldn't make a team that went 16-0. Not really sure how that speaks negatively of the Pats.
  20. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Yeah, I have, I've watched notoriously clueless ESPN anchors who make a yearly ritual out of comically bad predictions anoint the Jets. Most of these guys were crowning them back in 2008 too, and we both know how that turned out. The fact that you're still buying the hype just speaks poorly of you, at this point.
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2010
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