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Prediction: The Pats' Pass Defense is About to Go From Terrible to Very Good

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mayoclinic, Nov 3, 2012.

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  1. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So far through 8 games the Pats' overall defense has been somewhere between mediocre to respectable, ranking 12th in points allowed (averaging 21.3 PPG) and 23rd in total yardage . The run defense has been outstanding, ranking first in least YPA (3.5) and 8th in YPG (88.6). And they rank 3rd in the NFL (and 1st in the AFC) with 20 takeaways (11 fumble recoveries, 9 INTs).

    The pass defense has been another story. The Pats rank 28th in passing YPG (281), and in yards per attempt (8.0). They rank 27th in opposing QB rating, allowing an average rating of 96.8. The 17 passing TDs which they've given up is tied for 2nd worst in the league. And they rank 23rd in opponent 3rd down conversion rate (43%). By all measures our secondary play has been poor. And what we've witnessed is commensurate with what the numbers suggest.

    I think that's about to change. Recent history has shown that teams can go from having poor pass defenses to very good ones in a very short time. The 2010 San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks were among the worst pass defenses in the league, and the 2010 Houston Texans set records for the most passing yardage allowed. All 3 teams were markedly better in 2011, and are among the best in the league this year. And I think there's a good chance that we're about to be the next team to make that switch.

    There are 4 reasons why I think things are about to change:

    1. Upgrades in personnel. The Pats' secondary has been paper thin. Pat Chung and Steve Gregory have been out. Ras-I Dowling was banged up before going on IR. Kyle Arrington has been hobbled. Things seem to finally be improving. Gregory was almost back for the Rams game, so he should be back after the bye week. Hopefully Chung will be back, and some time off will benefit Arrington. Alfonzo Dennard has just begun to emerge over the past few weeks as a bona fide starting CB. And the acquisition of Aqib Talib immediately upgrades our personnel at CB by a considerable margin.

    2. Devin McCourty as the deep FS. McCourty has played FS for the past 2 games, and BB has noted that the deep protection was improved from previous weeks. The Pats haven't had a FS with deep cover skills since Brandon Meriweather was cut, and Meriweather lacked the discipline and selflessness to play that role well. McCourty in man coverage is a liability. McCourty patrolling the deep part of the field with everything in front of him and making sure nothing gets by could be an Earl Thomas kind of anchor for the secondary, allowing the CBs to play more man-press and the front 7 to attack more aggressively. It may take a few games for McCourty to make the adjustment, but by the end of the season I think we'll see a huge difference in big pass plays and long 3rd down completions. I personally think that BB's comments plus the acquisition of Aqib Talib is a clear sign that DMac will stay at FS. The position is too important, and no one else has the skills to handle it.

    3. Coherence in the secondary. For years now it seems like the secondary has lacked cohesiveness, coherence and communication. Having DMac as the deep safety and captain of the secondary should help. He will play the same kind of role that Jerod Mayo plays for the front 7. In addition, having 2 CBs who are suited to playing press-man coverage will allow the secondary to have a coherent approach for the first time in a long time. It seems like the secondary has been too busy applying band-aids to put 4-5 guys on the field to have any consistency or coherence. Remember last year when the safeties seemed to change every quarter? With 2 outside CBs who can play press-man and a solid deep cover FS, the coaching staff can mix and match with the other parts, using Chung, Wilson, Gregory, Arrington and Cole as the situation dictates, without giving up basic defensive coherence or cohesion.

    4. Synergy with the front 7. Houston's secondary improved from 2010 to 2011 in part because of the acquisition of CB Jonathan Joseph, who provided a huge upgrade. But without a doubt the addition of JJ Watt and Brooks Reed and the return of Connor Barwin made at least as much difference. It's hard to play an aggressive defense when the secondary is getting strafed, and it's hard for any secondary to hold up in the NFL when there's no pressure on opposing QBs. If the deep safety coverage is reliable it will allow the CBs to play press-man and bump opposing receivers off their routes, knowing that someone has their back if their man gets past them. That allows the front 7 to attack more aggressively, generate more pressure, and create more disruption.

    Theoretically, it should all come together. Of course, it never works exactly the way it should in theory. I'm sure there will be some bumps on the way. But I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that we'll see significant improvement in the pass defense over the next 8 games, so that by the end of the regular season it is almost unrecognizable from what we saw against Seattle, Baltimore, or the Jets earlier this season. I certainly hope so. I'm not worried about making it to the playoffs with what we've had up to now, but making it through without a significantly improved pass defense would have required an awful lot of luck.
  2. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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  3. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Great post, Mayo.

    I definitely agree that McCourty provides us a huge upgrade at FS, and should be kept there for the remainder of the season.

    I do not find it coincidental that the coaching staff felt that he would be best used there during the offseason (at least according to SMY and Bedard) until they changed their mind due to what they saw as a lack of depth at the CB position.

    I see safety play as extremely important to the play of the CBs, so it would make the most sense to shore up the weakest position by leaving McCourty at safety. The dropoff just isn't significant enough at CB.
  4. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So would I. It would be a start. We'll probably need a bit more than that by playoff time, and I think we'll get there.
  5. Big-T

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    Improved secondary play (McCourty at safety, addition of Talib) will also give Patricia more confidence in dialing up the blitz too which will further improve the pass defense.

    1 addition sets off a chain reaction, a domino effect of improvement.
  6. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Looking at their remaining schedule and offensive ranking.

    Bills-15th
    Colts-27th
    @Jets-16th
    @ Dolphins-22nd
    Houston- 3rd
    SF-9th
    @JAX-32nd
    Dolphins-22nd

    In theory, statistically they should improve as long as they don't allow Sanchize to throw for 328 again.
  7. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Agreed. That was included under #4 in the OP. "More aggressive" front 7 play included more blitzing.
  8. Marqui

    Marqui Rookie

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    Not only do the DBs need to play more aggressive coverage schemes, but the linebackers need to do so as well. It doesn't make sense to always drop those huge linebackers in soft zones and make them cover in space. Have them use their size to beat up TEs/slot WRs at the LOS or blitz.
  9. Big-T

    Big-T Rookie

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    Danieal Manning was probably the most under rated addition to the Texans secondary last season, as mentioned around this board the last couple of days, a good FS transforms the defense.
  10. VJCPatriot

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    Let's hope Talib acquistion works out. He could change the whole complexion of the defense. And I've liked what I've seen of McCourty at FS so far.
  11. Off The Grid

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    One of your very finest Works ever, my friend.

    And that is saying quite a lot. :cool:
  12. Boomer B

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    They will get better because they upgraded talent (Talib) and they are playing some pretty bad offences the rest of the year. Way to early to say they will go to "Very Good", although I hope you are right.

    I'd like to see Chung in at strong safety on 1st down and then moved to coverage linebacker on passing downs. He'd be much better covering TEs and RBs then the linebackers we have now. We could go with McCourty and Wilson at the safety spots on passing downs with Chung taking over one of the linebacker spots.
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2012
  13. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Wicked Pissah Pats Homo, bro.
    Made my night.
  14. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    lets start at decent first before we say very good :bricks:
  15. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Good post, Mayo.

    When folks were saying that their defense was good in the playoffs last year it really wasn't as Flacco had a 95 QBR and Eli had a 103 QBR with both teams winning the ToP battle and netted close to or over 50% conversion on 3rd down. However, they only allowed 20 and 21 points respectively so folks can't complain too badly.

    I agree completely that they need guys healthy, playing together and to their capabilities, more talent than can execute on gameplans and as always, playmaking.
  16. Brady'sButtBoy

    Brady'sButtBoy Rookie

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    Mayoclinic, I'm right there with you again. One of the first things I said to my football buds minutes after the trade was how much difference one player can make to a certain group. I AM NOT SAYING TALIB'S ANYWHERE NEAR AS GOOD but think of what Revis does for the Jets DB's and how the whole D plays with more swagger. If Talib plays close to his best the Pat's other DB's will surely become better as group - more confident, more able to play to the top of their abilities. This not only because the more talented of the group will be on the field but also because of a change in disposition.
  17. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    As I said earlier in this thread, I'll be happy to settle for "decent" initially. "Very good" won't happen immediately, if it happens at all. Great things have small beginnings, and playing a bunch of poor offenses may be just what this defense needs to build confidence and give things time to gel. I'm assuming it will take some time, and I'm assuming there will be a few bumps, even if they eventually do make it to "very good".

    That's not unreasonable. There are a lot of different ways that the defensive coaching staff can start to tinker with things. Again, if the deep passing hemorrhage has been stopped somewhat, I think there will be a bit more willingness to get creative.
  18. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks.

    I have to say, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic - not overly homeristic, but cautiously optimistic - about the secondary for the first time in a long, long time. At least since the beginning of 2011, probably since early 2010, maybe longer. The emergence of Alfonzo Dennard. McCourty's play at FS. And the Talib trade. It just seems to like the storm clouds are suddenly shifting and some light is finally beginning to shine after a long period of darkness. I realize that it could all be an illusion, especially with Talib's off field history. But I'm cautiously optimistic.

    I was VERY optimistic about our secondary back in 2009. The safety position looked extremely strong. Brandon Meriweather made the Pro Bowl and probably deserved it, and seemed to be making the leap towards fulfilling his potential. He made some stunning plays showcasing his range and ball skills. Pat Chung was a rookie and showed signs of providing a physical intimidating presence we hadn't seen since Rodney. Brandon McGowan was an unexpected find as a UFA, and James Sanders rounded out a very solid and versatile unit. At CB Leigh Bodden was a terrific outside CB - like Talib, a 6'1" CB who could play press and man coverage as well as zone, and who provided some veteran leadership. Shawn Springs was intended to provide a second tall veteran CB who could plan press-man, but though he wasn't a total bust he didn't live up to expectations. (BTW, I find it amusing that Mike Reiss talks about Talib like he's a total deviation from BB's model for DB's; Bodden was 6'1", Springs 6'0" and DOwling 6'1", all big, physical guys who were suited to playing press-man coverage, so it's not like this is an entirely new departure.) Darius Butler had all the athletic ability in the world and showed promise as a rookie, and we were still too naive to give up on Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite. Bret Lockett and Kyle Arrington were essentially STers that year.

    It seemed like a darn good group, and Butler was expected to make a big leap in 2010. So good, in fact, that most people were incredulous when the Pats used a 1st round pick on Devin McCourty in 2010. I was one of the few that predicted that the Pats would go DB instead of going after a pass rusher. I was hoping that Earl Thomas would fall to #22. My argument was that in today's game you need 5 good DBs, and a "nickel" back was effectively a starter and worth a 1st round pick. With the addition of McCourty and Leigh Bodden signed to a 4 year extension, the secondary seemed in good shape for a long time.

    And then it fell apart. Bodden got hurt and ended up on IR, and pretty much ended his career with the Pats. McGowan got hurt and eded up on IR, and pretty much ended his career with the Pats. Butler lost his confidence and regressed, and was cut a year later. Wilhite and Wheatley were never more than JAGs at best, and injured ones in the case of Wheatley. And Meriweather's freelancing and selfishness started to outweigh his value. So BB tore the whole thing up in training camp of 2011, and we were left with McCourty, Chung and a bunch of JAGS and youngsters to band-aid together a secondary.

    This is the first time in a long time that I've gotten the sense of a real plan as far as how the coaching staff wants the secondary to progress, instead of just what seems like an ad hoc band-aid approach. It seems like they clearly want a deep cover safety who can protect against all the bleeding that's been going on, and McCourty seems like the man for the job. It seems like they're moving towards a man-press approach. Dennard is developing nicely. McCourty is a stud but doesn't play that style well, and is needed at FS. Dowling went down again, and more experience is needed anyway, so Talib met both requirements. It seems like there's actually a plan, not just plugging in backup/STers like Brown and Ihedigbo and expecting them to be starters or relying on guys like Julian Edelman and Matt Slater to fill in at DB when necessary.

    Of course, it may not work as planned, just like it didn't work in 2009-2010, and it may all fall apart. But at least they're trying, and at least there seems to be a direction. So I feel cautiously optimistic about the secondary for the first time in a long time.
  19. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    after reading this thread I can see what Talib's defensive tactic is gonna be..slather himself in mayo-nnaise and squirt free from the offensive players trying to tackle him on the way to the house....just what the Pats needed for their BLT defense (Brandon Spikes,Kyle Love,Tavon Wilson)...now with a double helping of offensive artery clogging MAYO-nnaise....[​IMG]
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2012
  20. Avenger

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    The Pats drafted a S in round 2 and signed a FA S. That doesn't look like they thought McCourty was S, that looks like they intended him to be a CB, he didn't play S at all in camp, and didn't move to S until injuries forced it.
  21. Marqui

    Marqui Rookie

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    If chevss over at PP is to be believed, they intend to keep McCourty at CB initially.

    Patriots Planet - New England Patriots Forums and Message Boards - View Single Post - Looking At The Patriots - 2012

  22. jnug

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    I do think that the Talib acquisition is a big deal. Lets face it though....it was as much an admission that the secondary was/is a huge problem for the Pats in general and the defense in particular. This is a problem that went beyond needing a better pass rush. It also suggests that between the two possible issues often tossed around here, talent or coaching, the talent level was surely lacking.

    Where I still have some concerns is that in a couple cases, guys the Pats still have to rely on to play in that secondary just cannot seem to stay on the field. Arrington has been battered and beaten so much over the coarse of the last two seasons that I am no longer sure about the longevity of his career. How many times can a guy get carted off the field? He has been a real trooper as far as playing in pain is concerned, generally inserting himself back into games while sustaining multiple injuries but at some point it all catches up to you. They don't rely on Dowling as much but he cannot stay on the field to save his skin. Chung could be a little more durable as well.

    At any rate, their tendency to injury may be yet another facet of their general lack of size. As I have often pointed out here, Pats DB's are all cut from the same mold, all about the same height and weight, as in smallish especially at CB.

    Talib is finally a guy that breaks that mold at least for a Pats CB. Talib would be on the big side even for a Pats safety. Hopefully it means we have seen the last of this effort to build a secondary of really smallish guys especially playing at CB as I just don't think it works.

    While I would love to see cohesive play become a hallmark of the Pats secondary they really do need Talib to play. So, that is a new guy that has to work his way in quickly and if the remaining DB's continue to beat a path from hospital bed to playing field as often as they have, they may simply not end up on the field long enough to develop as a cohesive unit.

    While all the press has been talking about Talib as a pretty big gamble I don't view it that way. I think the Pats had to make a move something like Talib. While his addition does not mean we can talk about Talib Island the way some talk about Revis Island, Talib immediately becomes the best man up cover guy we have and is a huge upgrade in that regard. So he adds a body to an injury prone secondary. He adds a big body to a smallish secondary especially among the CB's. He fills the single biggest hole the Pats had in their secondary, that being for a guy that can in fact at least hold his own if not more than hold his own against many of the league's WR's. That allows the coaches to scheme something like the way defensive coaches scheme when they have somebody like a Talib in their secondary.

    I would love to see them grow from yuk to very good in the space of the remaining games of the regular season but I would settle for just mediocre at this point especially since they are still kind of smallish as a group and prone to injury. I think the smallish and prone to injury part of the deal and what it means for an effort to become a cohesive unit is still the biggest issue, hopefully now in part mitigated by the addition of Talib.

    If they really do make it all the way to very good I will be tickled pink but kinda' surprised at the same time. You would however knock me over with a feather if they do not improve noticeably as they have in Talib something they have not been able to draft....a CB that has not declined from the start of his pro career at least in his on field performance.
  23. The Gr8est

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    Kind of like the many attempts at finding the right TEs to play the position to the standard that BB had in mind, and which has revolutionized the offense now that he has found his guys.

    Hopefully, we are seeing the same thing on defense that BB envisioned for his two TE offense.
  24. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not only that, when the Pats released Chris Baker and let Ben Watson walk in FA, the TE cubbard was totally barren prior to the 2010 draft. That unit went from being essentially non-existent to the best in the NFL in a very short time.

    I used the RB group as a comparison in a PM to OTG. It was only 3 months ago that most people considered that we had a totally unproven RB group, and many people questioned the wisdom of letting BJGE walk in FA. Now, at least through 8 games, the Pats have the most prolific rushing attack that they've had during the BB era with a very deep group of backs who complement each other nicely, and Ridley appears to be emerging as a legitimate stud. What was a position of weakness is suddenly a position of strength.

    It seems like there is some kind of plan. That gives me hope. Aqib Talib may or may not be the answer, but at least he's a sign that the FO and coaching staff are aware of a need and are trying to move in the right direction. There's no doubt he has some skills. God pray he keeps his head on for at least the next 3 months.
  25. The Gr8est

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    It also seems not long ago that our LBs were horrid and we were discussing guys like Ray Maleauga and James Laurinaitis as dream picks who could help upgrade our LB corps.

    Now we have Mayo, Spikes, and Hightower; all young and talented, and with bright futures.

    It's a good time to be a Pats fan.
  26. Joker

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    It's a good time to be a Pats fan.

    I've been saying this since 2004...some idiots just don't get it though and must continually cry about how "BAAAAAAAAAAAD!!! things are...they follow the teachings of THIS savior...

    [​IMG]
  27. Off The Grid

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    Remarkable, isn't it? :confused:

    It was clear that we had the greatest Depth of Talent at O Back that this team has seen in any Era...and yet so many were bewailing the loss of BenJarvus Hyphenator, The Most Average Back Who Ever Lived.
  28. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If 3 months ago - at the beginning of training camp - I had started a thread predicting that at the midpoint of the season the Pats would rank 5th in rushing in the NFL, would be averaging almost 150 YPG and be on pace for nearly 2400 yards rushing (more than in 2004 or 2008), and that Stevan Ridley would lead the AFC in rushing, I probably would have been laughed off the board. In comparison, a thread predicting that our pass defense could be "very good" by playoff team seems rather tame.
  29. JR4

    JR4 In the Starting Line-up PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I understand most of what you say , and agree, but the last sentence I'm
    not sure why you say that.

    Why doesn't the front 7 attack more aggressively even when the deep safety coverage is NOT reliable and the CBs do not play press-man bumping opposing receivers off their routes?
    It seems when the secondary can't pass protect well the front 7 should be
    as aggressive as possible to limit their exposure. No?

    Also, if PATs begin to cover well it may seem the front 7 is being more
    aggressive but that perception may be due to the fact they have more time to get to the QB.
  30. hodgey

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    Its been good but zero lombardis and 2 superbowl defeats to awe shucks Eli has been tough. If TB gets one more I'll never complain again.
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