Prediction: BB will pull out all the stops

[ATippett56]

III. Internal FA Signings:

1. Aqib Talib, CB.
2. Julian Edelman, WR.
3. LeGarrette Blount, RB.
4. Dane Fletcher, LB.

All these guys love being with the team and want to be back, depending on the $$$.

- Let walk: LB Brandon Spikes, OC Ryan Wendell, OL Will Svitek.
- LS Danny Aiken could be brought back on a minimum 2-3 year deal, but I wouldn't tender him. A long snapper can be found as a UDFA.

IV. External FA Signings:

1. Alex Mack, OC, Cleveland. 6'4" 311#. Pro Bowl caliber player.
2. Linval Joseph, DT, NY Giants. 6'4" 323#. Underrated DT who is very strong against the run but can also push the pocket.
3. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit. 6'5" 265#
4. Nick McDonald, OL. Cut by Pats this year due to injury, re-signed for minimum $$$. Can play all 5 OL positions.

You are living in a dream world if you think the Cleveland Browns will allow Alex Mack to hit free agency. Michael Lombardi will slap the franchise tag on him so fast your head will spin.

2014 NFL Free Agency and Salary Cap Overview - Over the Cap

 

[jsull87]

I'm interested why you say that? He is one of the best run stuffing DE's in the NFL and he put up 11.5 sacks on 2012. While he fell to only 3.5 sacks in 2013 he also had 17 QB hits, 41 hurries and 7 passes batted at the line. He's also shown a bit of ability to drop into coverage due to his freak athleticism. To me he is a perfect fit as a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB and would offer a lot of versatility.

Now he might be out of our price range, I think there is a chance Zimmer could throw big money at him in Minnesota. But in terms of the player I think he is a perfect fit.

Really appreciate all the work gone into this thread. I needed a day to process the loss but i think there are the bones of a dominant team in our locker room.

My only differences and things to consider are. I think Vince is restructures/extended rather than cut.

I think Emmanuel Sanders has a very good chance of being a patriot.

Agree totally that Mack at C would be a good FA move. I don't know why but i can't see us getting Johnson or other FA rushers. When we sign someone for that money we usually want them to start and contribute on all 4 downs.

With Nink and Jones i personally think we would be going down the rookie route here rather than FA (other than the Andre Carter type signing).

Pettigrew and Mack would be my top realistic targets.

That then frees you up to go impact in the draft. i.e Guard, Rush OLB/DE, CB/S

 

[Wilfork#75]

You are living in a dream world if you think the Cleveland Browns will allow Alex Mack to hit free agency. Michael Lombardi will slap the franchise tag on him so fast your head will spin.

2014 NFL Free Agency and Salary Cap Overview - Over the Cap

The thing that may stop the Browns hitting Mack with the franchise tag is TJ Ward. They are going to have a tough time deciding which one to tag if they can't re-sign both, although they do have a ton of cap space if they want to spend it.

 

[ATippett56]

The thing that may stop the Browns hitting Mack with the franchise tag is TJ Ward. They are going to have a tough time deciding which one to tag if they can't re-sign both, although they do have a ton of cap space if they want to spend it.

The Cleveland Browns have $50 million in salary cap space. As for TJ Ward, the 2014 NFL Draft has more quality safeties available than offensive centers.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm interested why you say that? He is one of the best run stuffing DE's in the NFL and he put up 11.5 sacks on 2012. While he fell to only 3.5 sacks in 2013 he also had 17 QB hits, 41 hurries and 7 passes batted at the line. He's also shown a bit of ability to drop into coverage due to his freak athleticism. To me he is a perfect fit as a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB and would offer a lot of versatility.

Now he might be out of our price range, I think there is a chance Zimmer could throw big money at him in Minnesota. But in terms of the player I think he is a perfect fit.

I've never seen him being as strong in run support as you say. Greg Hardy - now there's another matter, but he won't get out of Carolina. I think Zimmer probably has Johnson plugged as Jared Allen's successor in Minnesota, anyway, but he's never really excited me.

 

[mayoclinic]

You are living in a dream world if you think the Cleveland Browns will allow Alex Mack to hit free agency. Michael Lombardi will slap the franchise tag on him so fast your head will spin.

2014 NFL Free Agency and Salary Cap Overview - Over the Cap

I haven't included Mack in any mocks before now for that very reason. There have been rumors that he's not a lock to re-sign in Cleveland, and may hit free agency, which is why I've included him. It may in fact be a "dream". We'll find out soon enough. KC OG Jon Asamoah would be a decent alternative if he hits FA and Mack doesn't.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I haven't included Mack in any mocks before now for that very reason. There have been rumors that he's not a lock to re-sign in Cleveland, and may hit free agency, which is why I've included him. It may in fact be a "dream". We'll find out soon enough. KC OG Jon Asamoah would be a decent alternative if he hits FA and Mack doesn't.

I like the work you did on in this thread. Really to ok the doom and gloom "we can't resign anyone" mentality out of the mix for awhile.

Asamoah would be a great alternative signing in my book.

 

[mayoclinic]

I really like the OLine. The Dline has very good depth and a solid rotation. My one fear is they still lack that player who can just take over a series like McGinist could at time or a JPP when healthy can. I think Chandler Jones is a very solid player and sets a great edge against the run but he's not sudden. You look at what Seattle did adding Avril and Bennett and I think that would give us some game changers.

I think Jamie Collins has the potential to be a Von Miller type impact player, and while he won't nominally plan on the DL, he will have a major in all 3 phases of the defense. And I could see Marcus Smith becoming another Collins. Chandler Jones isn't JPP in terms of his pass rush, but he's a better overall player. Add all the pieces together, and I think this could be a dominant front 6/7.

 

[zimmy]

I really like Alex Mack but I don't see us signing him. We already have money tied up in the line with Mankins, Vollmer and Solder. And Solder is going to get a big contract soon. Signing Mack to a 5 year $40m dollar deal is too much. We can't use that % of the cap on the o-line. I see us drafting a young center/guard instead.

 

[patsfaninpa]

What's tough about this year's free-agency period. The draft has been pushed back to May 8-10. You really want your starters set before that. Not going to be as many good free-agents still available. Especially, at center. I know Koppen stepped in for 03 Super Bowl. But, it's risky hoping you get the guy you want in the draft. Many posters seems to focus on WR only. But, there are other important decisions to be made. I can live with not knowing the RG. Maybe, Cannon can slide in there if Connolly is released or moved to center.

 

[mayoclinic]

I really like Alex Mack but I don't see us signing him. We already have money tied up in the line with Mankins, Vollmer and Solder. And Solder is going to get a big contract soon. Signing Mack to a 5 year $40m dollar deal is too much. We can't use that % of the cap on the o-line. I see us drafting a young center/guard instead.

Quite possible. But Mankins is probably in the last year of his deal. He's signed through 2016, but in 2015 he has an $11M cap hit with $7M in savings if he is cut, and in 2016 he has a $7M cap hit, all non-guaranteed. He turns 32 in March. I could see signing a FA lineman with a back-loaded deal so that the real money won't kick in too much until the Pats get some relief from Mankins' deal.

Vollmer's cap hits aren't ridiculous - $3.75M in 2014, and $4.5M in 2015-16.

Solder is a definite issue. The Pats have the option of keeping him for 2015 under a 5th year. His concussion history may be a factor in a long term deal. The Pats also have to decide what to do with Marcus Cannon, who is in a contract year.

It could easily go the way you suggest. But I think they could also choose to bring in a proven veteran like Mack or Asomoah to upgrade the line, especially if BB decides to go all out to fix the issues.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think Vince is restructures/extended rather than cut.

Obviously that is a strong possibility. But Wilfork himself has said he doesn't know how his body will respond, and if the Pats go that route and he can't come back in time we're screwed. Also, freeing up $7.5M in cap space and signing a younger cornerstone like Linval Joseph puts the Pats in great position for the long haul: Joseph, Armstead, Siliga and Jones is a solid young core to build around, and only Joseph will cost much for the next couple of years.

Here's a radical plan:

1. Cut Wilfork and go after Joseph.
2. Move Pat Graham back to LB coach, the position he had in 2011.
3. Make Wilfork the DL coach now that Pepper Johnson has left. Wilfork has been advising the team all season, and it would be a seamless transition. Mr. Kraft can make sure that Wilfork is taken care of - not to the tune of $7.5M, but he'll get the remainder of his signing bonus and can be paid pretty well without fear of cap issues. He can let his injury recover slowly and use the team facilities to work on his rehab, and if it appears that he can recover the Pats could potentially re-sign him for 2015.

Not likely, but not entirely ridiculous.

 

[Snake Eyes]

3. Make Wilfork the DL coach now that Pepper Johnson has left. Wilfork has been advising the team all season, and it would be a seamless transition. Mr. Kraft can make sure that Wilfork is taken care of - not to the tune of $7.5M, but he'll get the remainder of his signing bonus and can be paid pretty well without fear of cap issues. He can let his injury recover slowly and use the team facilities to work on his rehab, and if it appears that he can recover the Pats could potentially re-sign him for 2015.

This is very interesting, I didn't know he was functioning in this capacity. It's pretty rare that you have someone who can play at an elite level and also teach others well. If he's up for it I'd love to have him.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is very interesting, I didn't know he was functioning in this capacity. It's pretty rare that you have someone who can play at an elite level and also teach others well. If he's up for it I'd love to have him.

Both Wilfork and Mayo were regulars after they went on IR and attended film sessions and gave advice to the youngsters. Wilfork even went on the trip to Denver with the team for the AFCCG, suggesting that he had some value in terms of his advice and input.

It's a long shot, obviously. I would think that bringing in Jim Schwartz in an advisory role to work with the DL (similar to what Dom Capers did in 2008 with the DBs) would be more likely. Greg Schiano's name has also been floated as someone who might join the Pats. But it's an interesting option.

 

[JerseyShore99]

Both Wilfork and Mayo were regulars after they went on IR and attended film sessions and gave advice to the youngsters. Wilfork even went on the trip to Denver with the team for the AFCCG, suggesting that he had some value in terms of his advice and input.

It's a long shot, obviously. I would think that bringing in Jim Schwartz in an advisory role to work with the DL (similar to what Dom Capers did in 2008 with the DBs) would be more likely. Greg Schiano's name has also been floated as someone who might join the Pats. But it's an interesting option.

I'd prefer Schwartz over Schiano, not that we need a DB Coach but Schiano would fit there with his connection from TB (Talib) and RU (McCourty, Harmon, Ryan), at least offer him a spot as a special assistant

 

[everlong]

Leftovers from Bill Belichick interview - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston


Brady's "window" of opportunity: With Brady turning 37 in August, Belichick was asked if he has more urgency to put weapons around him than maybe 10 years ago. "I think every year, you try to put the best team on the field that you can, understanding that there has to be a balance between putting all your eggs in one basket and blowing up your salary cap and draft and everything else for one season," he said. "That's not really what I'm talking about. But within reason, doing all the things you can do to have the most competitive team you can have. That's what we've done and we'll continue to do that. I'd say we've been very competitive over the last dozen years. That would be our expectation this year."

Business as usual.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's a more "scorched earth" version of my previous "blueprint" (see post #8).

I'm assuming a cap of $128M with $4.1M carryover = $132.1M adjusted cap space. Miguel currently estimates us at $123.6M (salaries, bonuses and dead space). I'm going to assume that the rookie pool, practice squad, and contingency funds that up most or all of the $8.5M difference, so that we are in something close to a "zero sum" situation, i.e., any money for FA signings (internal or external) must be freed up from cuts, restructurings or extensions, with only about $2.5M max left over.

I. Cuts / Restructures:

Cuts:

1. Cut Vince Wilfork. Painful, but smart. 33 years old in December, coming off an Achilles' tear, overweight $7.5M cap savings.
2. Cut Isaac Sapoaga. 33 years old this year, was a healthy scratch most of the time. $2M cap hit.
3. Cut Adrian Wilson. 34 year old this year, coming off of IR, $1.8M cap hit, $0.7M cap savings.
4. Cut Tommy Kelly. $2.65M cap hit, $1.75M savings.

Note that these cuts don't have to all be done immediately. Together, they save about $12M in 2014 cap space.

Extend, or Possibly Cut If Unwilling"

5. Dan Connolly. $4M cap hit, $2.5M savings if cut.
6. Stephen Gostkowski. $3.8M cap hit, $2.5M savings if cut. Signed through 2014. A cut is very unlikely, but an extension which lowers his cap hit makes sense.
7. Matt Slater. ($2.3M cap hit, $1.1M savings if cut. Signed through 2014. Same situation as Gostkowki, though if Nate Ebner can take over as the ST ace then he could possibly be a cut (doubtful).
8. Steve Gregory. $3.5M cap hit, $2.35 savings if cut. Signed through 2014. I think Gregory restructures or is gone.

Extend, Lowering Their 2014 Cap Hit:

9. Devin McCourty. $5.1M cap hit, signed through 2014. A long term extension that lowers McCourty's overall 2014 cap hit by $1-2M seems very likely.

In addition to $12M saved from #1-4 above, I estimate another $1-2M from extending Devin McCourty, and another $5-7M from extensions/cuts of Gostkowski, Slater and Gregory, which would give the Pats somewhere around $18-22M to work with.

II. Off-Season Trades:

1. Trade Ryan Mallett for a high 2nd round pick. I know, someone has to be willing to do it. But there are definitely possibilities (Houston, Cleveland and Minnesota are the top 3, and all have 2nd round picks in the 33-40 range). For now, I'll assume its to Houston for #33.
2. Trade a 6th round pick and a conditional 2015 pick to Miami for OL Jonathan Martin (6'5" 312#). Martin won't be back with the Dolphins, and the question is what they can get for him. We won't know until the bullying investigation gets sorted out, but he's viewed as "damaged goods" by some teams, and the price won't be high. Martin could be a terrific LG. He has cap hits of $1.3M in 2014 and $1.5M in 2015. The big question is whether the Dolphins would ever trade him to New England, but for now I'll assume it can be worked out if their opinion of him is low enough.

III. Internal FA Signings:

1. Aqib Talib, CB. Say 4 years / $28M, $12M guaranteed ($5M 2014 cap hit).
2. LeGarrette Blount, RB. Say 3 years / $9M ($2M 2014 cap hit). If Blount wants more, then Minnesota UFA RB Toby Gerhart would be a nice alternative. Gerhart is another big back with breakaway capability, but is more of a receiving threat than blount.
3. Dane Fletcher, LB. Say 2 years, $1.5M ($700K 2014 cap hit).

All these guys love being with the team and want to be back, depending on the $$$. Those 3 signings would have a $8.2M cap hit. Add in Jonathan Martin's $1.3M and the total would be $9.5M, leaving the Pats around $8.5-12.5M in cap space for external free agent signings if you assume a "zero sum" situation, or $11-15M if you assume a $2.5M surplus.

- Let walk: RB Julian Edelman (prices himself out of the market), LB Brandon Spikes, OC Ryan Wendell, OL Will Svitek.
- LS Danny Aiken could be brought back on a minimum 2-3 year deal, but I wouldn't tender him. A long snapper can be found as a UDFA.

IV. External FA Signings:

1. Alex Mack, OC, Cleveland. 6'4" 311#. Pro Bowl caliber player. Say 5 years / $35M ($15M guaranteed), $4M 2014 cap hit. By the time the real money kicks in, Logan Mankins can be cut ($7 cap savings in 2015), making room for Mack's contract.
2. Linval Joseph, DT, NY Giants. 6'4" 323#. Underrated DT who is very strong against the run but can also push the pocket. Say 4 years / $20-24M, $4M 2014 cap hit.
3. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit. 6'5" 265#. Say 3 years / $10M, $2.5M 2014 cap hit.
4. Riley Cooper, WR, Philadelphia (6'3" 222#) or Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia (6' 198#). The Eagles almost certainly will let at least one hit FA. Maclin is coming off an ACL injury and is willing to take a 1-year "prove it" deal, Cooper has some baggage and only 1 year of productivity. Assume a 2014 cap hit of around $2-3M.
5. A FA veteran QB backup to Tom Brady. Say $1M 2014 cap hit. Brian Hoyer and Matt Cassel are currently both signed through 2014, but could become available.

Those 4 signings come to about $13.5M in 2014 cap hit, which is essentially the high water number from restructurings.

V. 2013 Red-Shirt Additions:

1. Armond Armstead (6'5" 305#) returns and plays a hybrid DT/DE role.
2. Mark Harrison (6'3" 240#, 35" arms, 4.37 40 time) returns and is converted to a hybrid WR/Move TE role.

VI. The 2014 Draft:

I'm assuming the Pats will get 6th round comp picks for Danny Woodhead and Donald Thomas.

29. DT: Timmy Jernigan (6'2" 298#). If Ra'Shede Hageman (6'6" 312#) drops he could be the pick, or Stephon Tuitt (6'5" 303#).
33. DE: Trent Murphy, Stanford (6'6" 261#). Tuitt could also be an option here.
62. OLB: Marcus Smith, Louisville. 6'3" 258#. Another Jamie Collins. DB Lamarcus Joyner (5'9" 190#) could also be an option if he's available.
93. RB: Devonta Freeman, Florida St. 5'8" 203#. Ray Rice clone who has played in a RBBC system. Will allow us to not be dependent on Shane Vereen. A big CB/S like Stanley Jean-Baptiste or Keith McGill could also be an option.
4. OL: Billy Turner, North Carolina St. 6'6" 316#. Can play both tackle and guard. Plays with a Mankins-like mean streak.
- Trade 4B and 6th round picks for 2 5th round picks.
6. TE/Move TE: Richard Rodgers, Cal (6'4" 245#) or Crockett Gillmore (6'6" 253).
6 (comp). DB: Jonathan Dowling, Western Kentucky (6' 2 1/2" 198#) or Aaron Colvin (5' 11 1/2" 194#). Either can play outside CB or S.
6 (comp). FB/H-back: Trey Millard, Oklahoma. 6'3" 253#. Coming of an ACL injury which drops him. A jack of all trades who can play the H-back position as well.
7. Moon Shot: Larry Webster, DE/TE conversion, Bloomsburg (6'6" 259#) or Colt Lyerla, move TE, Oregon (6'5" 250#).

VII. Projected 2014 Roster:

QB(2): Tom Brady, veteran backup.
RB(4): LeGarrette Blount/Toby Gerhart, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Devonta Freeman.
FB(2): James Develin, Trey Millard (possible PUP).
WR(5): Danny Amendola, Riley Cooper/Jeremy Maclin, Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Boyce.
TE(4): Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew, Richard Rodgers, Mark Harrison.
OT(3): Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon. Jonathan Martin and Billy Turner can also play OT.
OG(5): Logan Mankins, Alex Mack, Dan Connolly, Jonathan Martin, Billy Turner. Marcus Cannon can also play guard.

DT(5): Linval Joseph, Timmy Jernigan, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones, Armond Armstead.
DE(4): Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Trent Murphy, Michael Buchanan. Armond Armstead can also play DE. Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Marcus Smith can also on the line.
LB(5): Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Marcus Smith, Dane Fletcher.
S(4): Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Steve Gregory/Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner.
CB(4): Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington.
DB(1): Jonathan Dowling/Aaron Colvin.

ST(4): Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen, Danny Aiken/UDFA, Matt Slater.

 

[everlong]

I'd love them to sign Maclin and was advocating a trade for him before he got hurt. Dobson and Maclin on the outside could be very dynamic. It would also allow for Thompkins to play more of a Marquise Colston type of role getting open over the middle in the zone behind the LBs and in front of the safeties.

It's really too bad they couldn't cut Amendola and give his money to Edelman. Which leads up to punt returner. The only guy on your roster to return a punt other than Edelman is Amendola and given his injury history I don't want him back there. Couple that with needing a backup slot guy and backup 3rd back I'd see what Dexter McCluster would cost. He's a great PR and acceptable as a backup for a 3rd down back and slot receiver. I just don't think you can trust Amendola, Boyce or Vereen to stay healthy. Having a guy who can fill all those roles has to get some interest for depth from BB.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'd love them to sign Maclin and was advocating a trade for him before he got hurt. Dobson and Maclin on the outside could be very dynamic. It would also allow for Thompkins to play more of a Marquise Colston type of role getting open over the middle in the zone behind the LBs and in front of the safeties.

I think either Maclin or Cooper would be a great addition. Cooper is 6'3" 222# with good functional speed. He's a bit of a jerk, but the Pats should be able to manage his personality. Maclin would really stretch the field. Either one would be more complementary to what we already have. I don't see any way Philly can keep both. They currently have $127M in salaries, bonuses and dead cap space for 2014, and with DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy having a combined cap hit of $22.5M this year and $24M next year, I would think they will be cautious not to overspend on other offensive skill players. If Nick Foles continues to play well he will probably be in line for a big extension after this year. At the most I think they will try hard to bring back one of the two.

I personally think that Josh Boyce can step up and play the Edelman role, both as a back-up slot receiver and as a "Z" receiver. He showed flashes, and I think people were expecting way too much too soon.

It's really too bad they couldn't cut Amendola and give his money to Edelman.

Based on last season, obviously. But that was only 1 season, and Amendola basically toughed it out injured all year. I think he should do better next year, and while I love Edelman, he only has 1 year of full time productivity.

Which leads up to punt returner. The only guy on your roster to return a punt other than Edelman is Amendola and given his injury history I don't want him back there. Couple that with needing a backup slot guy and backup 3rd back I'd see what Dexter McCluster would cost. He's a great PR and acceptable as a backup for a 3rd down back and slot receiver. I just don't think you can trust Amendola, Boyce or Vereen to stay healthy. Having a guy who can fill all those roles has to get some interest for depth from BB.

Not that I wouldn't love to size Dexter McCluster, but I'm not sure how we'd find the $$$. If we somehow did, I'd pass on Devonta Freeman and go after a big DB who can play CB or S in my mock above - Stanley Jean-Baptiste or Keith McGill would be nice fits.

Assuming that's not a possibility, I don't see why Josh Boyce can't pick up PR duties. IIRC, Julian Edelman hadn't returned punts before his rookie year when the team asked him to do it. I would also think that Devonta Freeman could excel in that role. The team has proven resourceful in figuring out how to fill that role in the past, and I'm sure they could do so again.

 

[mayoclinic]

If Alex Mack doesn't make it to FA or is priced out of the Pats' market, here's another alternative:

- Keep Connolly and move him to center, possibly with a 1 year extension that lowers his cap hit a bit.
- Sign UFA OG Rodger Saffold (St. Louis). 6'5" 332#, would be an immediate upgrade at RG, and would have some tackle versatility.
- Draft a day 3 OC like Bryan Stork, Tyler Larsen or Marcus Martin.

Also, if we don't trade one of our 6ths, I'd love to pick up both Aaron Colvin and Jonathan Dowling. Both can play outside CB or safety. That would give great depth and versatility at DB:

S: McCourty, Harmon, Gregory/T. Wilson (cut one), Dowling, Ebner.
CB: Talib, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Colvin.

Here's a more "scorched earth" version of my previous "blueprint" (see post #8).

I'm assuming a cap of $128M with $4.1M carryover = $132.1M adjusted cap space. Miguel currently estimates us at $123.6M (salaries, bonuses and dead space). I'm going to assume that the rookie pool, practice squad, and contingency funds that up most or all of the $8.5M difference, so that we are in something close to a "zero sum" situation, i.e., any money for FA signings (internal or external) must be freed up from cuts, restructurings or extensions, with only about $2.5M max left over.

I. Cuts / Restructures:

Cuts:

1. Cut Vince Wilfork. Painful, but smart. 33 years old in December, coming off an Achilles' tear, overweight $7.5M cap savings.
2. Cut Isaac Sapoaga. 33 years old this year, was a healthy scratch most of the time. $2M cap hit.
3. Cut Adrian Wilson. 34 year old this year, coming off of IR, $1.8M cap hit, $0.7M cap savings.
4. Cut Tommy Kelly. $2.65M cap hit, $1.75M savings.

Note that these cuts don't have to all be done immediately. Together, they save about $12M in 2014 cap space.

Extend, or Possibly Cut If Unwilling"

5. Dan Connolly. $4M cap hit, $2.5M savings if cut.
6. Stephen Gostkowski. $3.8M cap hit, $2.5M savings if cut. Signed through 2014. A cut is very unlikely, but an extension which lowers his cap hit makes sense.
7. Matt Slater. ($2.3M cap hit, $1.1M savings if cut. Signed through 2014. Same situation as Gostkowki, though if Nate Ebner can take over as the ST ace then he could possibly be a cut (doubtful).
8. Steve Gregory. $3.5M cap hit, $2.35 savings if cut. Signed through 2014. I think Gregory restructures or is gone.

Extend, Lowering Their 2014 Cap Hit:

9. Devin McCourty. $5.1M cap hit, signed through 2014. A long term extension that lowers McCourty's overall 2014 cap hit by $1-2M seems very likely.

In addition to $12M saved from #1-4 above, I estimate another $1-2M from extending Devin McCourty, and another $5-7M from extensions/cuts of Gostkowski, Slater and Gregory, which would give the Pats somewhere around $18-22M to work with.

II. Off-Season Trades:

1. Trade Ryan Mallett for a high 2nd round pick. I know, someone has to be willing to do it. But there are definitely possibilities (Houston, Cleveland and Minnesota are the top 3, and all have 2nd round picks in the 33-40 range). For now, I'll assume its to Houston for #33.
2. Trade a 6th round pick and a conditional 2015 pick to Miami for OL Jonathan Martin (6'5" 312#). Martin won't be back with the Dolphins, and the question is what they can get for him. We won't know until the bullying investigation gets sorted out, but he's viewed as "damaged goods" by some teams, and the price won't be high. Martin could be a terrific LG. He has cap hits of $1.3M in 2014 and $1.5M in 2015. The big question is whether the Dolphins would ever trade him to New England, but for now I'll assume it can be worked out if their opinion of him is low enough.

III. Internal FA Signings:

1. Aqib Talib, CB. Say 4 years / $28M, $12M guaranteed ($5M 2014 cap hit).
2. LeGarrette Blount, RB. Say 3 years / $9M ($2M 2014 cap hit). If Blount wants more, then Minnesota UFA RB Toby Gerhart would be a nice alternative. Gerhart is another big back with breakaway capability, but is more of a receiving threat than blount.
3. Dane Fletcher, LB. Say 2 years, $1.5M ($700K 2014 cap hit).

All these guys love being with the team and want to be back, depending on the $$$. Those 3 signings would have a $8.2M cap hit. Add in Jonathan Martin's $1.3M and the total would be $9.5M, leaving the Pats around $8.5-12.5M in cap space for external free agent signings if you assume a "zero sum" situation, or $11-15M if you assume a $2.5M surplus.

- Let walk: RB Julian Edelman (prices himself out of the market), LB Brandon Spikes, OC Ryan Wendell, OL Will Svitek.
- LS Danny Aiken could be brought back on a minimum 2-3 year deal, but I wouldn't tender him. A long snapper can be found as a UDFA.

IV. External FA Signings:

1. Alex Mack, OC, Cleveland. 6'4" 311#. Pro Bowl caliber player. Say 5 years / $35M ($15M guaranteed), $4M 2014 cap hit. By the time the real money kicks in, Logan Mankins can be cut ($7 cap savings in 2015), making room for Mack's contract.
2. Linval Joseph, DT, NY Giants. 6'4" 323#. Underrated DT who is very strong against the run but can also push the pocket. Say 4 years / $20-24M, $4M 2014 cap hit.
3. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit. 6'5" 265#. Say 3 years / $10M, $2.5M 2014 cap hit.
4. Riley Cooper, WR, Philadelphia (6'3" 222#) or Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia (6' 198#). The Eagles almost certainly will let at least one hit FA. Maclin is coming off an ACL injury and is willing to take a 1-year "prove it" deal, Cooper has some baggage and only 1 year of productivity. Assume a 2014 cap hit of around $2-3M.
5. A FA veteran QB backup to Tom Brady. Say $1M 2014 cap hit. Brian Hoyer and Matt Cassel are currently both signed through 2014, but could become available.

Those 4 signings come to about $13.5M in 2014 cap hit, which is essentially the high water number from restructurings.

V. 2013 Red-Shirt Additions:

1. Armond Armstead (6'5" 305#) returns and plays a hybrid DT/DE role.
2. Mark Harrison (6'3" 240#, 35" arms, 4.37 40 time) returns and is converted to a hybrid WR/Move TE role.

VI. The 2014 Draft:

I'm assuming the Pats will get 6th round comp picks for Danny Woodhead and Donald Thomas.

29. DT: Timmy Jernigan (6'2" 298#). If Ra'Shede Hageman (6'6" 312#) drops he could be the pick, or Stephon Tuitt (6'5" 303#).
33. DE: Trent Murphy, Stanford (6'6" 261#). Tuitt could also be an option here.
62. OLB: Marcus Smith, Louisville. 6'3" 258#. Another Jamie Collins. DB Lamarcus Joyner (5'9" 190#) could also be an option if he's available.
93. RB: Devonta Freeman, Florida St. 5'8" 203#. Ray Rice clone who has played in a RBBC system. Will allow us to not be dependent on Shane Vereen. A big CB/S like Stanley Jean-Baptiste or Keith McGill could also be an option.
4. OL: Billy Turner, North Carolina St. 6'6" 316#. Can play both tackle and guard. Plays with a Mankins-like mean streak.
- Trade 4B and 6th round picks for 2 5th round picks.
6. TE/Move TE: Richard Rodgers, Cal (6'4" 245#) or Crockett Gillmore (6'6" 253).
6 (comp). DB: Jonathan Dowling, Western Kentucky (6' 2 1/2" 198#) or Aaron Colvin (5' 11 1/2" 194#). Either can play outside CB or S.
6 (comp). FB/H-back: Trey Millard, Oklahoma. 6'3" 253#. Coming of an ACL injury which drops him. A jack of all trades who can play the H-back position as well.
7. Moon Shot: Larry Webster, DE/TE conversion, Bloomsburg (6'6" 259#) or Colt Lyerla, move TE, Oregon (6'5" 250#).

VII. Projected 2014 Roster:

QB(2): Tom Brady, veteran backup.
RB(4): LeGarrette Blount/Toby Gerhart, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Devonta Freeman.
FB(2): James Develin, Trey Millard (possible PUP).
WR(5): Danny Amendola, Riley Cooper/Jeremy Maclin, Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Boyce.
TE(4): Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew, Richard Rodgers, Mark Harrison.
OT(3): Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon. Jonathan Martin and Billy Turner can also play OT.
OG(5): Logan Mankins, Alex Mack, Dan Connolly, Jonathan Martin, Billy Turner. Marcus Cannon can also play guard.

DT(5): Linval Joseph, Timmy Jernigan, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones, Armond Armstead.
DE(4): Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Trent Murphy, Michael Buchanan. Armond Armstead can also play DE. Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Marcus Smith can also on the line.
LB(5): Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Marcus Smith, Dane Fletcher.
S(4): Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Steve Gregory/Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner.
CB(4): Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington.
DB(1): Jonathan Dowling/Aaron Colvin.

ST(4): Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen, Danny Aiken/UDFA, Matt Slater.