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Prediction: BB will pull out all the stops

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mayoclinic, Jan 20, 2014.

  1. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    After 2 consecutive AFCCG losses, BB seemed utterly disgusted yesterday. Sure, the injuries were ridiculous this year. But I think he understands that he needs to go all out to get over the top. The last time the Pats lost to Manning in the AFCCG BB went out and got Randy Moss, Wes Welker, signed Adalius Thomas.

    I think BB has finally realized that he needs to get more athleticism like Jamie Thomas showed in the playoffs, a more aggressive pass rush, and a couple of key guys in the secondary (a big CB for depth behind Aqib Talib, and ideally an upgrade for Steve Gregory).

    We're not flush with cap space, but we have some room to maneuver, and a lot of guys whose contracts can potentially be address:

    - Wilfork. 32, coming off an Achilles' injury, looks very overweight. Not sure he can come back. $11.6M cap hit, $7.5M savings if cut.
    - Mankins (32 years old, $10.5M cap hit). Not sure we can do anything, but it will be discussed.
    - Connolly (32 years old, $4M cap hit, $2.5M savings if cut).
    - Kelly ($2.5M cap hit, $1.7M savings if cut)
    - Gregory (31 years old, $3.5M cap hit, $2.3M savings if cut). Very smart player, good rotational guy, but athletically limited.
    - Gostkowski ($3.8M cap hit, $2.5M savings if cut). Had a great year, so a cut is unlikely. Maybe an extension that lowers his cap hit?
    - Slater ($2.3M cap hit, $1.1M savings if cut). Had a great year, so a cut is unlikely. Maybe an extension that lowers his cap hit?

    Plus there's Isaac Sapoaga (32 years old, $3.5M cap hit, $2M savings if cut) and Adrian Wilson (34 years old, $1.8M cap hit, $700K+ savings if cut).

    I don't know what changes are coming, but I think BB will take a hatchet to some of the excess. If you're not out-performing your contract you're under-performing, and therefore at risk. And I think he'll be very aggressive with shaping the team on both sides of the ball for the next 5 years. There is a very talented young nucleus to build around, but how that nucleus is augmented this season will be key.
  2. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Amendola 2.7M cap hit if cut and Hernandez 7.5M are going to hinder them from going after needed talent.
  3. manxman2601

    manxman2601 On the Roster

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    #24 Jersey

    I do think there hasn't been much of a plan recently, perhaps because of the Hernandez issues. I hope at the very least he has a firm 2-3 year plan for both the offense and defense.
  4. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Sorry, he is always the same. Prepare to be underwhelmed.
  5. stelfans

    stelfans Rookie

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    Not sure what he'll do but he needs to work his ass off.
    The good thing? This draft is beastly deep so one of the things is better at (acumulating picks) is one of the best options when it comes to offseason plans.
  6. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We went from having a sub-par receiving group in 2006 to having the best pass offense in the history of the NFL in 2007. We went from having nothing at TE at the end of the 2009 season to having the best TE combo in the NFL in 2010-2012.

    I think BB has some pretty ingrained pre-conceived notions, some of which go back a long way. He's tended to go for big, thumping LBs, for example. But he is remarkably adaptable for a guy who's been coaching as long as he has, and once he makes a change, he tends to do so fairly assertively.
  7. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I'd like to see a plan that gives us the 1992 Cowboys Oline with the 2007 Giants DLine.
  8. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm estimating the 2014 cap will be about $128M (it has been reported to be $126.3M, but a number of "experts" have suggested that it will be a bit higher, around the figure I've used). According to Miguel we currently have $115M tied up in salaries/bonuses plus $5.6M in dead money, for $120.6M, putting us $7.3M under the cap. We have about $4M carryover from 2013, which would put us $11.3M under the cap.

    I. Cuts / Restructures:

    1. Cut Vince Wilfork. Painful, but smart. 33 years old in December, coming off an Achilles' tear, overweight $7.5M cap savings.
    2. Cut Dan Connolly. 32 years old this year, mediocre, $4M cap hit, $2.5M cap savings.
    3. Cut Adrian Wilson. 34 year old this year, coming off of IR, $1.8M cap hit, $1M cap savings.
    4. Restructure/extend Stephen Gostkowski ($4M cap hit), Matt Slater ($2.3M cap hit), Steve Gregory ($3.5M cap hit) and Tommy Kelly ($2.5M cap hit). All are in a contract year in 2014.

    #1-3 saves about $11M in cap space. #4 could save another $4-5M or so. Call it $15M of additional cap space, giving us about $26M to work with.

    II. Off-Season Trades:

    1. Trade Ryan Mallett for a high 2nd round pick. I know, someone has to be willing to do it. But there are definitely possibilities (Houston, Cleveland and Minnesota are the top 3, and all have 2nd round picks in the 33-40 range).
    2. Trade a 6th round pick to Minnesota for Matt Cassel. Cassel is going into a contract year and has an option to void it within 5 days of the start of free agency. He will likely be no better than #3 on the depth chart, and has a $3M cap hit. He restructures, a la LeGarrette Blount last year.

    III. Internal FA Signings:

    1. Aqib Talib, CB.
    2. Julian Edelman, WR.
    3. LeGarrette Blount, RB.
    4. Dane Fletcher, LB.

    All these guys love being with the team and want to be back, depending on the $$$.

    - Let walk: LB Brandon Spikes, OC Ryan Wendell, OL Will Svitek.
    - LS Danny Aiken could be brought back on a minimum 2-3 year deal, but I wouldn't tender him. A long snapper can be found as a UDFA.

    IV. External FA Signings:

    1. Alex Mack, OC, Cleveland. 6'4" 311#. Pro Bowl caliber player.
    2. Linval Joseph, DT, NY Giants. 6'4" 323#. Underrated DT who is very strong against the run but can also push the pocket.
    3. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit. 6'5" 265#
    4. Nick McDonald, OL. Cut by Pats this year due to injury, re-signed for minimum $$$. Can play all 5 OL positions.

    Note: If Julian Edelman prices himself out of the Pats' range, then WR Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh) or Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia, probably on a 1 year "prove it" deal) could be options.

    V. 2013 Red-Shirt Additions:

    1. Armond Armstead (6'5" 305#) returns and plays a hybrid DT/DE role.
    2. Mark Harrison (6'3" 240#, 35" arms, 4.37 40 time) returns and is converted to a hybrid WR/Move TE role.

    VI. The 2014 Draft:

    I'm assuming the Pats will get 6th round comp picks for Danny Woodhead and Donald Thomas.

    - Trade #29 (640 points) to San Francisco for #56 and 61 (632 points)
    33. DE: Trent Murphy, Stanford (6'6" 261#) or Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame (6'5" 303#, can also play DT).
    56. DB: Lamarcus Joyner, Florida St. (5'8" 190#) or Kyle Fuller (6' 194#).
    61. DE/OLB: Marcus Smith, Louisville. 6'3" 258#. Another Jamie Collins.
    - Trade #62 for a high 3rd and a 5th round pick (similar to the 2011 trade back from 60 for 73 and 138).
    3a. OG: Gabe Jackson, Mississippi St. 6'3" 340#.
    93. RB: Devonta Freeman, Florida St. 5'8" 203#. Ray Rice clone who has played in a RBBC system. Will allow us to not be dependent on Shane Vereen.
    4a. OL: Billy Turner, North Carolina St. 6'6" 316#. Can play both tackle and guard. Plays with a Mankins-like mean streak.
    - Trade 4B and 6th round picks for 2 5th round picks.
    5a. TE/Move TE: Richard Rodgers, Cal. 6'4" 245#. Has numbers which compare closely with those of Ebron and Amaro. Played slot receiver for Cal this year.
    5b. DT: DeAndre Coleman, Cal. 6'5" 315#. Has played 3-4 DE as well as 4-3 DT. Reminds me of Muhammad Wilkerson. Size measurables are very similar to Ra'Shede Hageman.
    5c. WR: Cody Hoffman, BYU. 6' 3 7/8" 217#. Poor man's Jordy Nelson. Not a burner, but very underrated, in a very deep draft.
    6 (comp). DB: Jonathan Dowling, Western Kentucky. 6' 2 1/2" 198#. Former 4-star Urban Meyer recruit to Florida. Can play FS or outside CB.
    6 (comp). FB/H-back: Trey Millard, Oklahoma. 6'3" 253#. Coming of an ACL injury which drops him. A jack of all trades who can play the H-back position as well.
    7. Moon Shot: Larry Webster, DE/TE conversion, Bloomsburg. 6'6" 259#. Son of former Pittsburgh Steeler's center. Very athletic, former basketball player.

    That leaves me with the following:

    I. OL circa 1992-1993 Dallas:

    - Starters: LT Nate Solder (6'8" 320#) - LG Logan Mankins (6'4" 308#) - OC Alex Mack (6'4" 311#) - RG Gabe Jackson (6'3" 340#) - OT Sebastian Vollmer (6'8# 320#)
    - Reserves: Marcus Cannon (can play tackle or guard), Billy Turner (can play tackle or guard), Nick McDonald (can play all 5 OL positions).
    - Not to mention TEs Rob Gronkowski (6'6" 265#) and Brandon Pettigrew (6'5" 265#) when the Pats want to play power formations.

    II: DL circa 2007 NY Giants:

    - DE: Chandler Jones (6'5" 270#), Rob Ninkovich (6'2" 262#), Trent Murphy (6'6" 265# when bulked up)/Stephon Tuitt (6'5" 303#), Michael Buchanan (6'5" 255#).
    - Additional DE/outside pass rush capability: Armond Armstead (6'5" 305#), Dont'a Hightower (6' 2 1/2" 270#), Jamie Collins (6'3" 250#), Marcus Smith (6'3" 258#). Collins and Smith are uber-athletic, explosive players who will be moved all over and used to wreck havoc. They will be an integral part of the pass rush.
    - DT: Linval Joseph (6'4" 323#), Tommy Kelly (6'6" 324#)/DeAndre Coleman (6'5" 315#), Sealver Siliga (6'2" 325#), Chris Jones (6'1" 309#), Armond Armstaead (6'5" 305#).
    - Additional DT capability: Stephon Tuitt (6'5" 303#) if drafted; Chandler Jones (6'5" 270#) can play inside in NASCAR packages

    How does that work for you? I think that plan also addresses TE, WR, RB, QB, LB and DB, but you specifically asked about OL and DL.

    That blueprint works for me. I think it upgrades every unit to championship-potential caliber.

    Then draft Kevin Hogan, Christian Hackenberg or Devin Gardner in 2015, wash, and re-rinse.
  9. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    I really like the OLine. The Dline has very good depth and a solid rotation. My one fear is they still lack that player who can just take over a series like McGinist could at time or a JPP when healthy can. I think Chandler Jones is a very solid player and sets a great edge against the run but he's not sudden. You look at what Seattle did adding Avril and Bennett and I think that would give us some game changers.

    EDIT: The Hernandez 7.5 just sucks.If that was Santonio Holmes I bet the Jets would get cap relief but the Pats won't.
  10. manxman2601

    manxman2601 On the Roster

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    #24 Jersey

    Excellent job.

    For me, there are too many picks there (13 I think). That's unrealistic and not necessarily an asset for this team considering how young it already is. I do however like all those picks.
  11. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    I really like this blueprint mayo. I would be thrilled if this happened in the offseason. The interior OL goes from mediocre to very strong. We also get a talented #3 DE to lower Jones/Ninko's high snap counts and improve the pass rush.

    My only question/nitpick is how do you feel about riding with Ridley in a contract year? Blount will most likely cost 4-5 million (Shonn Greene/Michael Bush/BJGE money), and that is pretty pricey for a one dimensional RBBC RB. Ridley/Vereen/Freeman/Bolden would be a fine set of RBs.

    I think Ridley would be very motivated to have a career year in order to cash in during the 2015 offseason.
  12. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    12 picks. I would expect Trey Millard to start on PUP and possible get an IR year. I would expect Larry Webster to be on the PS or get the "Foxboro Flu". And I would expect DeAndre Coleman to either beat out Tommy Kelly or get cut or put on IR, so realistically I expect them to phase in some of the back end picks.
  13. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    With LeGarrette Blount under contract and Devonta Freeman signed for 4 years at reasonable cost, I'm much less worried about RB. The Pats could afford for both Vereen and Ridley to walk after 2014, and add low-cost replacements in the 2015 draft. Realistically, I think re-signing Vereen would be likely (unless Freeman leapfrogs him), and that Ridley will be gone after 2014, with a replacement thumper drafted in 2015. That works for me. Good player, but replaceable. RBs are among the more fungible players on a team.
  14. BritPat

    BritPat Rookie

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    #54 Jersey

    I've just seen you're running with the sign Alex Mack idea too - he's the best O-lineman coming onto the market IMO. Only 28 and shouldn't be that expensive for an All-Pro talent. He's an absolute must.

    Get him, maybe Asamoah from KC, I think BB really wants Michael Johnson from Cincy as well - things are beginning to look solid on both sides of the ball.

    That allows some fluidity in the draft then. If you don't want to keep Talib (which we should definitely do) then you can go for someone like Verrett (mancrush alert). If Vince is gone (I think he restructures) then you could bring in Chandler's big bro and then look for someone like Aaron Donald in the draft. I think Siliga is a massive X-Factor in all this though. He's been a stud.

    We desperately need to upgrade though, in several areas.
  15. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    The only way they can afford Johnson is if they get cap relief for Hernandez which is doubtful at best. Mack is much more realistic.
  16. BritPat

    BritPat Rookie

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    #54 Jersey

    Dropping Vince would open up a fair amount of cash. Connolly isn't cheap too. That's $10M right there.

    There are options.
  17. Wilfork#75

    Wilfork#75 Rookie

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    I don't think Mack will be that much cheaper than Johnson. I think a comparable contract for Mack would be Ryan Kalil's 6yr $49mil deal with Carolina. I also think Johnson's drop in sack total despite playing very well last season will also hurt him. Looking at the top FA pass rushers last season, Elvis Dumervil got 5 years $26mil and Paul Kruger got 5 years $40.5mil. If we could get him for something like 5 years $45mil I would certainly do it. We would need to back load it which shouldn't be a problem with Wilfork and Mankins off the books in the next few years and Hernandez dead cap gone in 2015.
  18. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I've always been a fan of Alex Mack, going back to the 2009 draft (he was in many of my mocks). The only reason I haven't touted him more as an option before now is that he has said he would like to stay in Cleveland and there didn't seem to be any chance of his leaving. There are rumors now that the Browns may not spend to re-sign him. If he does hit the market, I could easily see the Pats being an attractive destination for him.

    I can't see there being enough money for both Mack and Asamoah. One or the other is possible, but not both. And I think Michael Johnson is a pipe dream, and I've never bought into that one - he's too one-dimensional for me.
  19. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    FWIW, here's one listing of the "top 100" free agents for 2014:

    NFL Trade Rumors - Top 100 - 2014 NFL Free Agents NFL Trade Rumors - |

    My targets:

    #17. Alex Mack, OC, Cleveland. (Backup option: #81 Jon Asomoah, OG, Kansas City.)
    #22. Aqib Talib, CB, New England.
    #34. Linval Joseph, DT, NY Giants.
    #46. Julian Edelman, WR, New England. (Backup options: #48 Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia; #67 Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Pittsburgh.)
    #80. LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England.
    NR. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit. (Backup option: NR Scott Chandler, TE, Buffalo.)
  20. Wilfork#75

    Wilfork#75 Rookie

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    I'm interested why you say that? He is one of the best run stuffing DE's in the NFL and he put up 11.5 sacks on 2012. While he fell to only 3.5 sacks in 2013 he also had 17 QB hits, 41 hurries and 7 passes batted at the line. He's also shown a bit of ability to drop into coverage due to his freak athleticism. To me he is a perfect fit as a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB and would offer a lot of versatility.

    Now he might be out of our price range, I think there is a chance Zimmer could throw big money at him in Minnesota. But in terms of the player I think he is a perfect fit.

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