Predict Our Season Way Too Early

[mgteich]

this is a touch schedule for a good team yet let alone a team with so many question marks , but if the offense is better and the defense is the same and the special teams improves... 11-6 optmistic... realistic 8-9

I would argue that
1) The Defense should be better with the 3 draftees added. Alos, they hopefully will be on the field less with even a Offense that is a little better.

2) ST's should be much better after adding Board, and drafting Ryland, Barringer and Speed. Montgomery or another might step us as a blocker (the Bolden role)

3a) On Offense, with the new coaches, everyone should be better.
3b) Our RB's should be at least as good.
3c) Gisecki over Smith should be an improvement.
3c) We might still add a receiver. As of now, Schuster should replace Meyers OK, and our 5th (if there is one should be better than in 2022).
3d) Our IOL's are better than 2022 unless you really liked Ferentz getting so many reps as #1 backup C and OG. Strange should be improved.
3e) Yes, we might move Strange to OT , creating weakness at IOL, but let's look at what we have now.
I believe that Brown, Reiff, Anderson and possibly McDermott/Cajuste is better than what we had last year. Reiff and Anderson are an upgrade over Wynn and Cannon. Isn't it that simple? Sure, we want more.

MOVING STRANGE
If this is the decision, we would
1) Start Sow at LG, which could be as good as Strange at LG last year (but we wanted to see the improved Strange)
2) Andrews would first off the bench instead of Ferentz (who would still likely be on the Practice Squad)
3) Our additional backup(s) would come from Hines, Mafi, Russey and Steuber.
4) Expect a retirement from Brown. Reiff is staying; he doesn't miss many games, and is certainly valuable at least as a backup.

 

[RobertWeathers]

10-7. Playoffs.

The defense and offense will both be better. I also believe the STs (kick/punt coverage, punting will be better. XP and FGs concern me)

Of BUF, MIA and NYJ one of them will have a disappointing season and not make the playoffs.

 

[sb1]

10-7. Playoffs.

The defense and offense will both be better. I also believe the STs (kick/punt coverage, punting will be better. XP and FGs concern me)

Of BUF, MIA and NYJ one of them will have a disappointing season and not make the playoffs.

Agreed. I can't see it going chalk to offseason hype. Almost never does.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Even back in the day with the GOAT, I never thought I was smart enough to predict a season in May. And now? Too many moving pieces. A team that lost its way for a season...Matt masquerading as OC and Special Teams becoming a weakness. Mac still hasn't had a fair shot.

But, I'll play along.

W's? Reserving the right to change my mind before September, I think 8 or 9 is the upside. But, I see more downside than upside. 2--4 is probably the upside in the Division, so they'd have to go 7--4 against the NFC East plus assorted challenges like the Chargers and Chiefs to get to 9.

But no one will take a BB-coached D lightly. If they get back to their traditional strength in ST and Mac shows he's the guy, they'll always be competitive and viewed as a "tough out."

Bottom Line: After two glorious decades, I don't have a problem with another two or three seasons wandering in the wilderness, but this is the year we learn whether Mac has a shot or whether the rebuild includes QB.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Agreed. I can't see it going chalk to offseason hype. Almost never does.

MIA certainly has talent but flaws.

AR isn't 1/2 the QB he was 2 years ago. Jets also have talent on both sides of the ball- especially on D.

BUF is still solid. Class of the division.

 

[crawhammer]

10-7. Playoffs.

The defense and offense will both be better. I also believe the STs (kick/punt coverage, punting will be better. XP and FGs concern me)

Of BUF, MIA and NYJ one of them will have a disappointing season and not make the playoffs.

I'll predict all 4 division teams records after the schedules come out. But at the moment I have the Patriots in 4th place. I think a refocused Rodgers has the Jets competing with the Bills for the division title. Miami's pass defense has to be much better than last season (so we'll see about Ramsey) and Tua has to stay healthy. Especially if the latter holds true, Miami will compete for a wild card spot.

I don't see a spot for the Patriots in the playoffs. The conference is too strong. I'm excluding a wild card team from the South (weakest division in the AFC). I don't trust McDaniels or Garoppolo for Vegas so I'm excluding them. I think Sean Payton gets Denver back to being competitive but they'll probably be on the outside looking in. I currently don't have the Patriots getting above 9 wins. I think the 3 WC teams will come from this (large) group: BUF, MIA, NYJ, CIN, BAL, PIT, CLE, KAN, LAC. I think the bold teams win their division so that leave 3 spots for the other 6 teams. At this point I would predict NYJ, BAL & LAC.

 

[Rob0729]

I feel everyone on offense projects to be better in thier roles.. from the get go last off-season the regular season was pretty much tainted with the coaching decisions.. guys never bought in, frustrating practices wich lead into camp and ultimately the season itself.

Juju is another season removed from injury as he wasn't 100% last season and still put up good numbers. Trent Brown is a wild card. I get the feeling that a guy like Bourne due to his contract would likely be a trade possibility.. I hope not, but it just feels that way to me.

I agree with you, can the defense challenge allen.. can they stiffle high powered offenses.. I'll say yes they will have the ability to do so.. what was sorely missing last season was exactly what the team identified in Gonzalez.

Lots of questions also reason for optimism.

I expect the offense to be much better than last year, but it is impossible to know how much though.

 

[Real fan 02]

I expect the offense to be much better than last year, but it is impossible to know how much though.

A functional middling offense say ranking 15th In points, with this defense would be more than enough compared to last season..

 

[TheRainMaker]

Interesting how this is essentially the same team as last year, yet most votes still put them at 10 or 11 wins given the Bills and Dolphins own them with another good QB entering the picture within the division.

 

[Real fan 02]

Interesting how this is essentially the same team as last year, yet most votes still put them at 10 or 11 wins given the Bills and Dolphins own them with another good QB entering the picture within the division.

That's valid, what I think gives hope for optimism is having some structure on offense. Yes all the other teams are better roster wise.. however we have the edge defensively, and overall coaching. I feel that 10 to 11 wins is attainable. I can't sit here and pretend that I know what games we'll win/ loose. However I know that this is a proud organization that wants to continue to win and compete in the AFC. It all starts with Mac.. if he can be the QB to lead this team.

 

[UrbanCowboy]

11-6 w/ playoff win. Key assumption is splitting with Buffalo and the Jets and sweeping Miami. I feel like Miami had their chance and blew it. An injury to Hill and the wheels come off. What we're doing isn't flashy, but feels very solid, and the regular season at least is a war of attrition.

 

[mgteich]

Interesting how this is essentially the same team as last year, yet most votes still put them at 10 or 11 wins given the Bills and Dolphins own them with another good QB entering the picture within the division.

For me, it is more interesting that you believe that this is the same team as last year.

Our punter was awful, our kicker was poor, many of our special teamers were injured, we had no OC, no QB coach, and made the decision to greatly degrade our OT position by switching OTs so that out RT was inexperienced and hopeless.

 

[crawhammer]

11-6 w/ playoff win. Key assumption is splitting with Buffalo and the Jets and sweeping Miami. I feel like Miami had their chance and blew it. An injury to Hill and the wheels come off. What we're doing isn't flashy, but feels very solid, and the regular season at least is a war of attrition.

We haven't swept Miami since 2016 when Brady went 11-1 and had a 28TD/2INT ratio.

Brady lost 3 games to Buffalo in 18 seasons. We're 1-6 against Buffalo since.

The Jets won 7 games last season with garbage quarterbacks. They have a 4x NFL MVP at QB now.

There is no chance the Patriots go 4-2 in the division. 2-4 is far more likely, with 3-3 probably a best case scenario, but let's cross our fingers they don't go 1-5.

 

[captain stone]

For me, it is more interesting that you believe that this is the same team as last year.

Our punter was awful, our kicker was poor, many of our special teamers were injured, we had no OC, no QB coach, and made the decision to greatly degrade our OT position by switching OTs so that out RT was inexperienced and hopeless.

Saint Nick of Time Folk was NOT “poor” last season.

 

[State]

Saint Nick of Time Folk was NOT “poor” last season.

************, is mgteich going senile? Other than weak kickoffs and 50+ attempts Folk was automatic.

 

[State]

1-1 Jets (Rodgers can be beaten by a BB defense in Foxboro)
1-1 Phins (annual at Miami loss)
0-2 Bills

I’m thinking 0-2 Jets, 1-1 Phins, and 1-1 Bills.

If we go over .500 against our afc east rivals, Belichick should receive coach of the year award.

If Aaron Rogers gets that team humming, look out. Our defense will keep many of these games close. But our offense won’t have enough firepower.

 

[Tunescribe]

1-1 Jets (Rodgers can be beaten by a BB defense in Foxboro)
1-1 Phins (annual at Miami loss)
0-2 Bills

I think this team can upset the Bills once. It would not surprise me to see all four go 3-3 in the division.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

We haven't swept Miami since 2016 when Brady went 11-1 and had a 28TD/2INT ratio.

Brady lost 3 games to Buffalo in 18 seasons. We're 1-6 against Buffalo since.

The Jets won 7 games last season with garbage quarterbacks. They have a 4x NFL MVP at QB now.

There is no chance the Patriots go 4-2 in the division. 2-4 is far more likely, with 3-3 probably a best case scenario, but let's cross our fingers they don't go 1-5.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I would argue that
1) The Defense should be better with the 3 draftees added. Alos, they hopefully will be on the field less with even a Offense that is a little better.

2) ST's should be much better after adding Board, and drafting Ryland, Barringer and Speed. Montgomery or another might step us as a blocker (the Bolden role)

3a) On Offense, with the new coaches, everyone should be better.
3b) Our RB's should be at least as good.
3c) Gisecki over Smith should be an improvement.
3c) We might still add a receiver. As of now, Schuster should replace Meyers OK, and our 5th (if there is one should be better than in 2022).
3d) Our IOL's are better than 2022 unless you really liked Ferentz getting so many reps as #1 backup C and OG. Strange should be improved.
3e) Yes, we might move Strange to OT , creating weakness at IOL, but let's look at what we have now.
I believe that Brown, Reiff, Anderson and possibly McDermott/Cajuste is better than what we had last year. Reiff and Anderson are an upgrade over Wynn and Cannon. Isn't it that simple? Sure, we want more.

MOVING STRANGE
If this is the decision, we would
1) Start Sow at LG, which could be as good as Strange at LG last year (but we wanted to see the improved Strange)
2) Andrews would first off the bench instead of Ferentz (who would still likely be on the Practice Squad)
3) Our additional backup(s) would come from Hines, Mafi, Russey and Steuber.
4) Expect a retirement from Brown. Reiff is staying; he doesn't miss many games, and is certainly valuable at least as a backup.

I "ughed" this post when I saw the subhead "moving strange." I thought it was about how I look now that I'm 60. No but seriously I thought you meant trading him.

You're looking at it right though. There are all sorts of indications that unless a player is super-special on the O-line, BB like "O Line is O line." Everybody we picked there has played multiple O-Line positions (although that's more common on O line than some other positions.)

(1) and (2) are right just on the face of it.

(3) seems right-ish, based not really on these well-thought out personnel musings so much as the likelihood of a less Keystone-influenced coaching staff and objectives. If we're keeping the OZ that took so damn long to get right-ish, fine. But I trust BoB and Klemm to make it go way more than my favorite new daytime drama, Judge Patricia.

 

[mgteich]

************, is mgteich going senile? Other than weak kickoffs and 50+ attempts Folk was automatic.

• FG% 86.5. Tied-17th.
• XP% 91.4. 33rd.
• LNG. Tied-23rd.
• PTS. 128. 9th.
• ==============
• There should be a new position designation for a "kicker" who can't kickoff and can't reliably kick a field goal beyond 45 yards, greatly limiting the playbook of the OC..