Potential Patriots WTF? Moment at #17

[Off The Grid]

Per usual, a very intriguing and rarely addressed Point with a very insightful Angle, Sister.

It's a fascinating Aspect of this Great Game, is it not?? The Gap between Market Value and Belichickian Value. How far does Coach Bill press his advantage, considering that every Trade Down both captures a portion of it and yet heightens the risk to the coveted player??

That's already factored into the "Belichickian Value."

If Belichick felt the difference in utility between McCourty and the next player on his board was bigger than the value of the picks he could get by trading down, he'd have taken McCourty at 23.

Interesting Argument, though of course you are talking about a different thing than I.

I refer only to "Absolute" Belichickian Value ~ the Value of the Player ~ in terms of Draft Position ~ as assessed by Coach Bill Belichick, Croatian Mad Man.

Even so, the Angle you draw into the discussion ~ the Absolute Belichickian Value, as I've defined it, juxtaposed with ~ I won't say "against" ~ the Adjusted Utilitarian Belichickian Value...is a very intriguing Aspect, indeed.

***

Honestly, it's a fascinating subject that you breach, one I've seen mentioned before, by a few others, probably including yourself: Truly accurate assessment of any given Prospect AND any given Draft Pick ~ these being two distinct entities ~ must draw in not only the various and sundry considerations affecting the Book Values of those two, but the ever-roiling Market Value of each Slot in each given year ~ which undergo great change, indeed, from year to year ~ and of course the Relative Value of each TO each of 32 teams, these things ALSO being constantly in flux!!

 

[jeffbiologist]

As much as some may grown I would have to say any OLB. I think our first pick has to be a plug and play player and BB relies on too much tuteledge for a OLB to be more useful than Cunningham was last year. Its definately been a developmental position at best, not a place for pick 17. Too bad though, for us I mean.

 

[tuckeverlasting]

Agreed, but the question was the WTF pick at 17.

ya, i know. but he was my choice for 17 and you beat me to it so i just threw that out there.

 

[Don Kipines]

I think that the WTF moment will be at 17 when some draftnic darling such as JJ Watt (or even A.J. Green) is still on the board and the Patriots trade down. Everyone will be screaming like the Sabine Virgins; it will be great--hope I am at a draft party for that.

I know everyone is going to scream at me about Green still being on the board at 17 but I gotta believe that he slides unless there are still some Matt Millen types making picks.

I don't think A.J. Green will fall that far, but I agree with you, there will be some binkies on the board when the Pats make their inevitable WTF pick. I'm sort of amused by all the people talking about Sheard or Torrey Smith as a WTF pick. No way -- the WTF pick is almost always someone YOU NEVER HEARD OF BEFORE. Or at the very least, someone you thought was a low third, or maybe fourth, fifth rounder. An example of a Pats WTF pick this time around would be more like Johnny Patrick or Cedric Thornton or Will Rackley. It has to be a total shock to your nervous system, an announcement that makes your every orifice pucker in horror.

And that's just the first round. In the second round, BB sometimes starts experimenting with guys who aren't even listed as having played college football anywhere... I'm kidding, obviously, but remember Bethel Johnson? Wasn't he like PFW's 46th-rated wideout that year? I knew who Sebastian Vollmer was because I'd seen that Draft Guys feature on him, but otherwise, he wasn't even a combine invite.

I'd bet on at least two of those "totally horrifying and inexplicable surprise" picks in the first three rounds.

 

[patchick]

Re: WTF Pick

The Ravens though, who pick before the Patriots 28th pick are major threats to take Torrey Smith. He's a local receiver from Maryland, fits the deep threat that they need and they would most definately take him before he slips to the Patriots at 28. All the Ravens may ultimatally need is a deep threat for Flaaco and Smith fits that need perfectly. So if the Patriots really want Smith, they need to either take him at 17 or move down a couple of spots, still in front of the Ravens and pick him. I agree with you on McCourty, I think the Jets being interested in McCourty definately factored into the Patriots picking him, McCourty was projected as a bordeline first round pick and could've been there in the 2nd but the Pariots didn't wanna risk the Jets picking him and scooped him up. The Ravens aren't as strong rivals to the Patriots as the Jets are but the Patriots picking Torrey Smith would not only make the Patriots better and fill a need, it would also take away the Ravens chances of taking Smith and not make them any stronger than they already are. Torrey Smith will not still be there in the second round nor at pick at 28. Even if the Ravens don't end up picking him, Atlanta, who's right behind them, will pick Smith, they need someone else across from Roddy White, it's their biggest need.

I guess I just don't rate Smith quite as highly as you do. I think a WR has to be truly special to take at #17, especially in a draft that's strongest on the lines, and I don't see that in Smith. There's a lot to like about him, but he has tiny hands and lets too many balls get through to his body.

 

[tricktak]

I think at 28 the pick may be Brooks Reed as well because the Jets, who are behind us have been connected to Reed and would probably take him before he gets to the Patriots at 33.

 

[Off The Grid]

Worth repeating, if only to myself, because I found the revelation startling:

50% ~ FIFTY!! ~ of his Top 64 Picks, the last 2 EXCEPTIONAL drafting years...have been WTF Picks!!

Is that # correct, Brothers and Sisters?

I'm thinking: Devo, Richie Cunningham, Ron Brace Your Self, and Sebastian The Cruel, out of 8.

 

[townes]

As much as some may grown I would have to say any OLB. I think our first pick has to be a plug and play player and BB relies on too much tuteledge for a OLB to be more useful than Cunningham was last year. Its definately been a developmental position at best, not a place for pick 17. Too bad though, for us I mean.

Right now it looks as if they will have to use a first to get immediate help at OLB because the pass rushing talent off the edge drops off after that, and their best bet may be to focus on upgrading the DL and forcing teams to double multiple DL and open space up for their OLB. At this point i'm leaning towards Phil Taylor DL Baylor with the #17 as i think he has the upside to become the next Ted Washington or Kris Jenkins and teamed with Wilfork he would force teams to gameplan to deal with the strength of the Patriots DL. If Kerrigan or Aldon Smith falls near #28 then make a move up to get one of them. At #33 go OL and hope that Pouncey, Sherrod, Castonzo or Carimi is still on the board.


Taylor might be a WTF pick to some here but reports are that he has completely turned things around and his performances at the Senior Bowl and Combine showed he's focused and a big time physical talent and presence. If they managed to get a top flght DL, OLB, and OL with their first 3 picks it would be a great draft regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

 

[townes]

at 17, yes. at 28, no.

Re: Jake Locker at #28


Why would they use a first round pick for someone who would never play for them?

 

[patsfan-1982]

#1 WTF moment J.J. Watt, and Robert Quinn, are still on the bord at #17 and the pats trade down

WTF moment #2 the pats take Mark Ingram, at #17

 

[supafly]

#1 WTF moment J.J. Watt, and Robert Quinn, are still on the bord at #17 and the pats trade down

WTF moment #2 the pats take Mark Ingram, at #17

I'm thinking the same exact thing with Ingram. That's my WTF moment too, although he may do very well here if taken.

I am predicting the fish take a QB, for those who will remind me that 'most mocks have him going to MIA at 15.' (like that almost matters)

 

[jmt57]

Chris Warner over at Patriots Daily listed a few of his WTF picks in a column this morning: Pats Draft Scenarios: Picks To Avoid

Among his WTF's: taking more than one OL with the first three picks; Anthony Castonzo; Jake Locker (are people seriously saying the Pats need to draft Brady's replacement this year?); pass rushers Aldon Smith, Dontay Moch and Akeem Ayers; running backs Daniel Thomas and Ryan Williams; and wide receivers Jon Baldwin, Tandon Doss and Greg Little.