Playoff odds

[questionman]

From Football Outsiders. Discuss.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

 

[363839]

Geez, I didn't realize that our odds were so bad.
32% chance of making the Play offs?!?
That's perfect, though.

 

[AFPatsFan12]

"Mean Wins: 9.5" Really? 2-3 down the stretch? The simulation also gives Oakland a 1.9% chance of winning the AFC West... now THAT would be hilarious...

 

[ctpatsfan77]

FWIW, other sites put the Pats' odds at 50-55%.

 

[Deus Irae]

If the Patriots beat the Steelers, the percentage will skyrocket, no matter what the other 'top' teams do.

 

[BlitzFritz]

i dont buy their methodology here.
it projects Ravens to win 10.5 games, and pats to win 9.5. we are both at 7-4, and they have a much harder schedule.

i would buy the 50% vs the 35%

- FRITZ

 

[Tunescribe]

What a load of crap. The guy who put that together needs to get a life. I'm going to make a copy of that nonsense and compare it to the final results. I'm willing to bet now that aside from the obvious division winners, he's 50-50.

 

[Disco Volante]

Colts with a 86.7% shot of making the playoffs?

A loss along with a Patriots/Ravens win next week and they're back out of the top six seeds.

Top six chances to make the playoffs in the AFC...

Titans: 100%
Jets: 91.8%
Steelers: 87.4%
Colts: 86.7%
Ravens: 81.9%
Broncos: 71.2%

Just happen to be the top 6 current playoff seeds, in order of record. Amazing.

 

[fgssand]

I wonder what odds they gave the Giants last year or the Steelers two years before that??

 

[Disco Volante]

According to that site we have a 0.6% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

 

[GostkowSKI]

Colts with a 86.7% shot of making the playoffs?

A loss along with a Patriots/Ravens win next week and they're back out of the top six seeds.

Top six chances to make the playoffs in the AFC...

Titans: 100%
Jets: 91.8%
Steelers: 87.4%
Colts: 86.7%
Ravens: 81.9%
Broncos: 71.2%

Just happen to be the top 6 current playoff seeds, in order of record. Amazing.

While I agree that 86.7% seems too high for the Colts, their next three games are against the Browns, the Bengals, and the Lions, so factoring in SOS they should be a slam dunk towards at least 10 wins.

I usually visit coolstandings.com for playoff projections. If you go, you have to click on the football link on the left halfway down (it's a little hard to find at first). They've got the Pats @ 55.5% for the playoffs as of right now.

 

[PYPER]

i dont buy their methodology here.
it projects Ravens to win 10.5 games, and pats to win 9.5. we are both at 7-4, and they have a much harder schedule.

i would buy the 50% vs the 35%

- FRITZ

The reason our projection is so low is b/c four of our last five games are on the road. Home/Away weighs heavily in their formula.

 

[363839]

I believe we have 2 home games left.
Pitt and Az.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

According to that site we have a 0.6% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Below the 2.2% they gave the Falcons......

 

[mgteich]

The Colts play Cleveland, Cinci, Detroit, JAX and TENN. I think the 86.7% is reasonable for the colts. If anything, it is low.

I think that the jets are very likely to win the division. That fight was all but settled 10 days ago, although they are certainly not a lock.

With regard to us, I'd put as at about 50%. The issue isn't Indy; they're in. The question is whether we sin the division (unlikely but possible) or whether one of BALT and PITT falls out of the wildcard race because of tough schedules. That is certainly possible.

Obviously, a win against PITT would be huge, but we could make it at 10-6 with BALT or PITT out. BTW, I think it unlikely that we will beat ARIZ.

While I agree that 86.7% seems too high for the Colts, their next three games are against the Browns, the Bengals, and the Lions, so factoring in SOS they should be a slam dunk towards at least 10 wins.

I usually visit coolstandings.com for playoff projections. If you go, you have to click on the football link on the left halfway down (it's a little hard to find at first). They've got the Pats @ 55.5% for the playoffs as of right now.

 

[Pats726]

One person's opinion of what he thinks will happen...THAT IS ALL it is.

 

[Tunescribe]

I believe we could construct a statistical model that would give the Pats greater odds of winning the AFC this year, based on BB's track record as a coach and projecting the impact of variants such as players returning from injury, Cassel's continuing improvement, etc. As one poster observed, it would be interesting to see where he had the Giants' chances last year at this time. This stuff is nonsense.

 

[Wendel]

We can beat the Steelers this week and still be out of the playoff top six seeds.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

We can beat the Steelers this week and still be out of the playoff top six seeds.

Yes, it's really a shame that an insufficient # of the rest of the 53 have not steped up this season and performed on the field like Matt Cassel, isn't it?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

One person's opinion of what he thinks will happen...THAT IS ALL it is.

For the record, it's a bit more than opinion--it's based on computer simulations of the rest of the season. Yes, there are assumptions built into the models, but it's not like these folks are just assigning numbers out of the blue.