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Here's the problem with RBs, especially in today's market.
1. The beating they take. If you are lucky enough to have an elite RB and are paying him elite money, he will need to touch the ball by run or pass around 250-300 times a season. That exposes him to the kind of punishment that limits the years you can reasonably expect so see a high level of production from the RB (usually 4-5 years). There ARE exceptions of course but by and large, even great RB's have short expiration dates
So you have a situation that after coming into the league and producing elite numbers for 3 or 4 years on their rookie contracts, when it comes time to get paid, these RB's are likely to be closer to the end of their best production period than the beginning of it. that's what makes it hard for teams to invest big money into players who will take such a beating.
I have long felt that the major reason Ricky Williams quit the Dolphins was simply to get away from Nick Saban who was literally beating him to death.with 2 seasons of over 330 carries.
2. As the reliance on the passing game has grown, so has the specialization of RBs. Now every team has a "3rd down specialist". So literally your main RB has lost about a 3rd of his snaps to the specialist. Then when you realize that most teams have at least 2 guys spitting the rest of the snaps, how much money can you spend on a RB who might be be taking only a third of the offensive snaps (like BJGE did last season) Its not real smart to pay a guy big money who will spend a majority of the time on the sidelines.
There was a time when most of the teams' #1 RB's would be getting 300+ carries. This past season there were only 2. In fact there were only 12 RBs who had 250+ carries. So not only are teams running the ball less, they are splitting those diminishing carries to a "committee" of RBs.
3. So if you are lucky enough to have a RB with a great combination of vision, speed toughness, strength and quickness you are caught in a corundum. If you pay him big money, then you have to justify that investment by making sure he gets the vast majority of the RB touches. But the down side is that when you do that, you are using him up faster. This is why team's are loath to invest big money on RBs who are going into years 5-10 in the league. They are never going to get value in the last years of that 2nd contract.
4. The Pats have proven over and over that you can be successful with just competent RBs who get what's there, can get that tough short yardage on third and short, and GL situations, and don't turn over the ball. And its not just the Pats, the Packers and Colts come quickly to mind in that they had elite offenses without having elite RBs
5. All that being said, if either Ridley or Vareen turn out to be top end RBs over the next 3 years. I think that guy will be in a great position to get big money from the Pats. I know it sounds contradictory from my other points, but its all about timing. Lets say Ridley is the guy who makes the great leap forward, and becomes an elite RB in the mode of Foster, Forte, AP or Rice. After the 2014 season the Pats will be forced to pay him since either Brady will be hanging them up or will be entering his dotage. Either way the running game will become more important to the offense in these transition year, thus justifying spending more money on the position.
1. The beating they take. If you are lucky enough to have an elite RB and are paying him elite money, he will need to touch the ball by run or pass around 250-300 times a season. That exposes him to the kind of punishment that limits the years you can reasonably expect so see a high level of production from the RB (usually 4-5 years). There ARE exceptions of course but by and large, even great RB's have short expiration dates
So you have a situation that after coming into the league and producing elite numbers for 3 or 4 years on their rookie contracts, when it comes time to get paid, these RB's are likely to be closer to the end of their best production period than the beginning of it. that's what makes it hard for teams to invest big money into players who will take such a beating.
I have long felt that the major reason Ricky Williams quit the Dolphins was simply to get away from Nick Saban who was literally beating him to death.with 2 seasons of over 330 carries.
2. As the reliance on the passing game has grown, so has the specialization of RBs. Now every team has a "3rd down specialist". So literally your main RB has lost about a 3rd of his snaps to the specialist. Then when you realize that most teams have at least 2 guys spitting the rest of the snaps, how much money can you spend on a RB who might be be taking only a third of the offensive snaps (like BJGE did last season) Its not real smart to pay a guy big money who will spend a majority of the time on the sidelines.
There was a time when most of the teams' #1 RB's would be getting 300+ carries. This past season there were only 2. In fact there were only 12 RBs who had 250+ carries. So not only are teams running the ball less, they are splitting those diminishing carries to a "committee" of RBs.
3. So if you are lucky enough to have a RB with a great combination of vision, speed toughness, strength and quickness you are caught in a corundum. If you pay him big money, then you have to justify that investment by making sure he gets the vast majority of the RB touches. But the down side is that when you do that, you are using him up faster. This is why team's are loath to invest big money on RBs who are going into years 5-10 in the league. They are never going to get value in the last years of that 2nd contract.
4. The Pats have proven over and over that you can be successful with just competent RBs who get what's there, can get that tough short yardage on third and short, and GL situations, and don't turn over the ball. And its not just the Pats, the Packers and Colts come quickly to mind in that they had elite offenses without having elite RBs
5. All that being said, if either Ridley or Vareen turn out to be top end RBs over the next 3 years. I think that guy will be in a great position to get big money from the Pats. I know it sounds contradictory from my other points, but its all about timing. Lets say Ridley is the guy who makes the great leap forward, and becomes an elite RB in the mode of Foster, Forte, AP or Rice. After the 2014 season the Pats will be forced to pay him since either Brady will be hanging them up or will be entering his dotage. Either way the running game will become more important to the offense in these transition year, thus justifying spending more money on the position.