Pay Wilfork and Mayo Their Contract Amounts

[Fencer]

So, we can have $20M available to sign the following or their replacements: McCourty, Ayers, Casillas, Branch, Vereen, Connolly, Ridley, Gostkowski and White.

What do you think the AAC values are on those guys?

• McCourty is probably 7 digits, but with the first one very high.
• Vereen, Connolly, Ayers, and Gost all seem to be in the $3-5 million range, and not necessarily at the low end of it. Gost or Vereen could even creep over the high end.
  
• The others are cheaper, but except perhaps for White not minimum-salary cheap.

 

[DarrylS]

If Mayo, Wilfork and Amendola do not restructure I suspect they will just be a memory.. I think Amendola and Mayo, but have less enthusiasm about Wilfork particularly after the last contentious negotiations..

What might "muddy" the waters is Vince's relationship with Mr. Kraft, he has always stayed out of this stuff and hope he does not.

 

[Fencer]

By the way, the defense has 3 established leaders -- Wilfork, Mayo and McCourty. It would be a disaster to lose all 3. Even losing 2 seems pretty risky. Losing 1 would probably just be a case of life goes on.

Of the three, Mayo is the most replaceable IMO, because he hasn't been around much recently and because Hightower or whoever wears the green dot automatically has a kind of leadership role.

 

[Fencer]

If Mayo, Wilfork and Amendola do not restructure I suspect they will just be a memory.. I think Amendola and Mayo, but have less enthusiasm about Wilfork particularly after the last contentious negotiations..

What might "muddy" the waters is Vince's relationship with Mr. Kraft, he has always stayed out of this stuff and hope he does not.

The Pats really need to segment their thinking on Wilfork: How much is he worth strictly as a player? How much more is his leadership worth? That thinking process can also be a basis for negotiating with him with respect.

 

[patsfaninpa]

One other thing to look at is our schedule. We're in a run-heavy division. That's six games we have to stop the run. Pittsburgh, Houston and Dallas run very well too. We need to be strong vs the run. Hope VW is flexible and Mayo too. We're going to need both. Hightower tore his labrum. I read a report on Earl Thomas that he also has a torn labrum. They said he will be out 6-8 monts. August - Oct. If both are reasonable, we should be able to save 5-7m right there.

A couple of months ago I'd have said release Amendola. He just wasn't producing. Well, that's changed quite a bit. Sure, we can save some money by releasing him. But, you would have to spend just as much finding a replacement. Would that replacement be any better? As of now, I'd say no.

 

[Miguel]

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1354 is my blog post about Mayo.

 

[RobertWeathers]

You seem to have little understanding of the cap. You make that clear when you state "if Miguel is right".
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Once Revis is either extended or cut, we would save anywhere from $9M to $20M; let's presume ONLY $9M.

There are additional restructures available (without changing compensation) that could make another $17.5M available (Wilfork, Mayo, Arrington, Browner, Brady, Gronk, Vollmer)

Cutting Amendola could "save" another $2.1M.

Extending Solder could save another $2M.

The total potential cap savings that is available without cutting anyone but Amendola is $30.6M (or more if the Revis savings is more.
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BOTTOM LINE
Obviously, all the restructures won't happen. And yes, we could cut more than Amendola. The potential total is $9M + $17.5M + $2.1 +$2M = $30.6M less the $4M we are over for a total of $26.4M UNDER the cap. Let's say that $6.4M is needed for rookies, in-season and other costs (the number used in last year's estimates). That gives a potential total of $20M to work with.

As you say, much MORE than $20M could be made available. We could cut any of the following and "save" even more: Wilfork, Mayo, Arrington, Browner, or even Solder. Or we could get one of them to take a pay cut. No additional cut is "needed". The open question is the value of these players.

So, we can have $20M available to sign the following or their replacements: McCourty, Ayers, Casillas, Branch, Vereen, Connolly, Ridley, Gostkowski and White.
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Good write-up. I think your math is pretty darn close to actuality.

Like you have said all of the your proposed restructures & cuts may not happen in a timely manner. With that said I think there is a very real possibility that this team may lose DMC. Some team out there will overpay.

 

[IllegalContact]

The pats don't save anything by cutting mayo now.....unlike wilfork, however, he has proven to be replaceable. Cutting mayo now would help in 2016.

Amendola is replaceable.....and his pay is out of whack for what he has done..... I would not be surprised to see a pay cut here as an end result.

First things first.......deal with Revis.....get McCourty done.....extend solder......bring back whoever will come back for the minimum......take stock then make more decisions based on roster needs.

There's no rush....the pats are not in a situation to hurry with hack and slash.....except the clock is ticking in Revis

 

[kennyb]

It's not unusual to have first year cap hits much lower than aav in a contract due to signing bonus amortization and low first year salaries.

So it's possible for Revis to go down below 10 on a new deal. Not sure if the old 5m still to hit the cap does so immediately or not.

Mayo you could put on all incentives. They'd be nltbe.

Not sure if mccourty really worth that much. He may be odd man out.

 

[farn]

I'm risking to be unpopular : but am I the only one who thinks McCourty is actually the priority ?

Revis is the "better player", no question. And I desperately want him to return - even if the price tag is difficult to handle. He changes the way this D plays and by all accounts is a hard worker and excellent teammate.

But DMac : is younger, is a leader of many years, allows others to be more aggressive because he can make up for mistakes, will make a significant amount less (presumably)... I think both are crucial to the continued success, but I think McCourty is the one NE really needs to keep in a crazy (and hopefully unnecessary) "one or the other" scenario.

 

[kennyb]

What do you think the AAC values are on those guys?

• McCourty is probably 7 digits, but with the first one very high.
• Vereen, Connolly, Ayers, and Gost all seem to be in the $3-5 million range, and not necessarily at the low end of it. Gost or Vereen could even creep over the high end.
  
• The others are cheaper, but except perhaps for White not minimum-salary cheap.

First year is high in cash but low in cap hit.
Vereen may be 2m or so. McCourty maybe 7 to 8. Connolly retires most likely. Ayers will be very cheap 2m my guess aav.

 

[Fencer]

My concern isn't who can be fit in for one year -- it's how much the future needs to be mortgaged if they're fit in.

 

[Fencer]

First year is high in cash but low in cap hit.
Vereen may be 2m or so. McCourty maybe 7 to 8. Connolly retires most likely. Ayers will be very cheap 2m my guess aav.

I'm not an expert on these things, but there are a lot of teams who value passing-down backs, so that surely seems low for Vereen. As for Ayers -- he had a few games where he looked like a $6-7 million/year guy. So getting around half that for potential seems realistic to me.

 

[Jimke]

No contract restructures, no Revis, no McCourty, no Gostkowski.

 

[BelizePats]

Wilfork is due $8.5M of new money this year and $6M or so next year.

Mayo is due $6.5M or so this year.

The team could restructure and save $6M in 2015 cap money. This presumes that the team values their play enough to want to pay them this kind of money.
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WILFORK
IMHO, the contract was negotiated last year so that Wilfork would earn $8.5M and $6M if he continued to perform. He has done that. Let's move $3M of 2015 money into 2016 and move forward. Next year, the team can decide on whether Wilfork is worth $6M or not. Wilfork needs to agree to moving the money, but this in no way harms him.

MAYO
IMHO, Mayo is still in the prime of his career. Here to, I would also move $3M into 2016 and 2017. The team might ask that some of mayo's compensation be moved to incentives, but even this is a bit difficult since most of his salary is guaranteed against injury. So, again, take the $3M in cap reduction and move on.

I like this idea a lot in terms of moving some money forward and keeping these two at their current salaries. The real bottom line is we stand a significantly better chance of winning the Super Bowl for a second consecutive year with these two guys on our team.

 

[Mark Morse]

The only way Wilfork returns next year is if Kraft steps in and tells BB to keep him. His overall play has diminished. He can't get off the LOS and is just a 2 down player. Mayo's injury history dictates that he will be gone as well. They can save so much by releasing him. That's $10M in cap savings. Connolly I would try and re-sign at a much lower salary than what he was making. You could incentivize the contract to bring it up to the standard of a starting OG. Revis restructure is a no brainer. Treat his 2015 as quaranteed, and include it as part of his bonus that can be spread out throughout the length of the contract.

 

[mgteich]

$9M to $20M cap savings for Revis.....lol. Under what scenario does Revis sign for an $11M (or less) cap hit in 2015 (not including the signing bonus money)?

Revis doesn't sign for cap money. He signs for guaranteed money. For example he could sign for
salaries of $1M, $10M, $10M and a $21M bonus ($30M guaranteed). The cap hit on the new contract would be $8M, a 2015 cap savings of $12M. The average compensation would be $14M a year.

But that might not be enough. Revis might need $16M a year with $40M guaranteed (which we likely won't give him). Here he might have salaries of $1M, $12M and $12M, with a bonus of $21M, with $40M guaranteed. The 2015 cap savings is still $12M.

Or we could give Revis $20M a year (we won't) and $60M guaranteed, with salaries of $1M, $19M and $19, with a $21M bonus, with everything guaranteed. YOU think that Revis wouldn't take this deal because of the low cap hit. The cap simply doesn't work that way.

 

[mgteich]

Amendola needs to take a cut or let him test free agency. You think he will get 5 million? I am waiting on boyce to finally figure out the pats offense lol.

1) Amendola will likely be cut and will test free agency.

2) You may think that Boyce is the solution LOL. IMHO, we will have a serious need at WR when Amendola is cut.

 

[Miguel]

Like to remind everyone that $4.5 million of Mayo's 2015 salary is guaranteed for injury. Cutting him while he is injured, therefore, will cause the Patriots to lose cap space, not gain.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I doubt Vince & Bianca will be open to taking a penny less. Vince is now a two down DL who has lost his pass rush ability. I would be shocked to see him back at his current price.

I would not be surprised to see the Patriots cut Vince & allow him to see what kind of deal he can get on the open market. The Patriots could then tell Vince to bring that offer back to the Patriots who would probably match the offer.

I have always been a Wilfork fan, but he is not the same player he was 5 (even 3) years ago.

I would be shocked if any team would be willing to give him 3 million for the first year.

Bill Belichick is not Theo Epstien.
He does not pay going forward for your ability of the past.