Pay Wilfork and Mayo Their Contract Amounts

[mgteich]

Amendola still has guaranteed money left on his contract which we will lose regardless if he stays or leaves in 2015.

The question is....is Amendola worth $2.1M in additional cap hit and IMO the answer is yes.

Yes, the cost of keeping Amendola for 2015 is $2.1M. Let's say we cut him after the season. Then there will be an additional $2.4 of dead money next year. So, the real additional cost is $4.5M not $2.1M.

The reason for this is that $3.6M of old bonus money still has to hit the cap. We can take the hit now or over 2 or 3 years. IMHO, what should always matter is "new" money, how much new money will we pay the player. Sometimes we cut a player (and should) even though there is no savings. We absorb the bonus money now, saving lots of money is the next year.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I'm reluctant to let go of any receiver who seemingly has finally found a comfort point with Brady.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Hi Guys first post. Sorry for my english I´m from Brazil.
I think the only cases in which the Patriots can really free up space in the salary cap without losing quality are Wilfork ( can be replaced by a 2nd choice in the 2015 draft , although i like Wilfork a lot 7 million dollars are far above his real value and from what I've read 2015 is a full- DT's quality draft).
Dennard ( I like him, and I think with his potential he could have a much bigger role on the team , but I see him as the fifth CB option and some problems off the field also bring me concern).
Mayo has to accept a pay cut . He has not contributed substantially unfortunately two years in a row. I think with two young LB's and increasingly investing in the secondary, his role tends to decrease.
I think in the ideal world Revis will stay a patriot with a cap of 15 million, McCourty will also stay with a cap of 7.5 million and Gostkowski with a cap of 3 million. But Mayo can be traded with a team like Tampa and Wilfork is Extended or cut.

 

[mgteich]

Does your $11m or $12M cap hit include the $5M of old bonus?

As reminder for everyone, the current cap hit of Revis is $25M.

So, using your $11M number, are you talking about a $14M cap reduction or only a $9M cap reduction? I presume the smaller number, but I'm just checking. In my guesses I gave had a cap savings of $9M or $12M depending on the 2015 salary given.

Most likely, I think we can use an 11-12 million dollar cap hit as a decent starting point for his 2015 number should he be extended, so I think you're probably right in the ballpark.

 

[Miguel]

Yes, the cost of keeping Amendola for 2015 is $2.1M. Let's say we cut him after the season. Then there will be an additional $2.4 of dead money next year. So, the real additional cost is $4.5M not $2.1M.

You are counting part of the $3.6 million in remaining signing bonus prorations twice.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I think we can sign Revis to 5/75 with 45m guaranteed. Which he'll get in the first 3 years. 25m signing bonus. Salaries of 1, 9 and 10 guaranteed. First year cap hit would be 11m. 5m carryover, 5m pro-rated and salary. We save 14m off his current number

 

[mgteich]

The truth of the matter is that some of these free agents for both 2015 and 2016 are going to have to be replaced by cheaper draft picks, as always. That's just the way it works, unfortunately.

Ayers and Vereen are the most likely to go. It is interesting to think that we expect rookies to replace their production. I would note that the only draft choices that had serious production this year were Stork and Fleming.

McCourty and Gostkowksi are the expensive free agents that we want to keep, even if one is franchised.

For the rest it is a matter of price. I expect to see Casillas and White back. Ridley and Branch are more problematic. Perhaps draft choices will replace these players, perhaps not.

Ayers
Vereen
McCourty
Branch
Casillas
Ridley
Gostkowski
White

 

[mgteich]

You are counting part of the $3.6 million in remaining signing bonus prorations twice.

Thank you for the correction.
If we cut Amendola, what is the 2016 dead money cost? Is there any?

 

[chasa]

I think Vince is making the wrong call by not retiring. I think he played well this year, but not 8.5 million in new money well. Vince has the chance to go out as a world champion having spent his whole career with one team. I don't think the pats are going to pay him 8.5 million, and we know hes not going to renegotiate after last time. This feels like it could blow up into a smudge on an otherwise great career out of pride to not take less money here, and not recieving a better offer elsewhere, but taking it anyway out of spite(houston, the jets, maimi)

Mayo has been the heart of the D, but after two years ending over half the seasons on IR he needs to switch to a deal that incentives playing time.

I'd love mayo to come back him hightower and collins would be one of the best LB cores in the league.

The team has a lot of work to do this offseason.

 

[mgteich]

I think we can sign Revis to 5/75 with 45m guaranteed. Which he'll get in the first 3 years. 25m signing bonus. Salaries of 1, 9 and 10 guaranteed. First year cap hit would be 11m. 5m carryover, 5m pro-rated and salary. We save 14m off his current number

Your deal might work, if the parties really want a 5 year deal.
===============
So your last two years' salaries total $30M, not guaranteed, say $15M and $15M. I would guess that Revis would want some injuries guarantees on the last 2 years.

I would note that you can save the same 2015 cap money with a 3/$45M, a $15M bonus, and salaries of $1M, $15M and $15M. Of course, the advantage of a 5 year deal is that bonus money is moved into 2018 and 2019.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Revis wants around 15m. If he's healthy In 2018 and playing well, just keep him. Cap will keep rising. We might even be post-Brady at that point with a cheaper QB.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Revis doesn't sign for cap money. He signs for guaranteed money. For example he could sign for
salaries of $1M, $10M, $10M and a $21M bonus ($30M guaranteed). The cap hit on the new contract would be $8M, a 2015 cap savings of $12M. The average compensation would be $14M a year.

But that might not be enough. Revis might need $16M a year with $40M guaranteed (which we likely won't give him). Here he might have salaries of $1M, $12M and $12M, with a bonus of $21M, with $40M guaranteed. The 2015 cap savings is still $12M.

Or we could give Revis $20M a year (we won't) and $60M guaranteed, with salaries of $1M, $19M and $19, with a $21M bonus, with everything guaranteed. YOU think that Revis wouldn't take this deal because of the low cap hit. The cap simply doesn't work that way.

I understand that players care about guaranteed money.

My issue is this thinking that we can "create" cap by restructuring contracts when, in fact, we are merely transferring the pain to a later date. Again, with Hightower and Jones' option years we will have about $113M in cap costs with only 30 players signed in 2016. That's without caps hits from Revis, McCourtey, Ghost, Ayers, Vereen, and anyone else that we want to sign along with 19 additional players.

"Restructuring" shouldn't be used to dump cap costs into later years especially with a player that is clearly past his prime. VW is a 2 down player now and is clearly not worth $8.5M no matter how we "structure" it.

 

[rads2005]

Hi Guys first post. Sorry for my english I´m from Brazil.
I think the only cases in which the Patriots can really free up space in the salary cap without losing quality are Wilfork ( can be replaced by a 2nd choice in the 2015 draft , although i like Wilfork a lot 7 million dollars are far above his real value and from what I've read 2015 is a full- DT's quality draft).
Dennard ( I like him, and I think with his potential he could have a much bigger role on the team , but I see him as the fifth CB option and some problems off the field also bring me concern).
Mayo has to accept a pay cut . He has not contributed substantially unfortunately two years in a row. I think with two young LB's and increasingly investing in the secondary, his role tends to decrease.
I think in the ideal world Revis will stay a patriot with a cap of 15 million, McCourty will also stay with a cap of 7.5 million and Gostkowski with a cap of 3 million. But Mayo can be traded with a team like Tampa and Wilfork is Extended or cut.

Welcome! I'm a longtime lurker here and just posted my first also in a different thread. Your english is fine.
I agree with much of what you wrote, the only thing I would do different are trading Arrington and keeping Dennard. I don't see what the Pats and other pundits say about Arrington- but if other teams value him as "one of the best slot corners" then he's easily tradeable. That draft pick and the cap savings in my opinion are worth far more than the dropoff between Arrington and Butler/Dennard. And I frankly think it's an upgrade, not a dropoff.

 

[JoeSixPat]

The Pats really need to segment their thinking on Wilfork: How much is he worth strictly as a player? How much more is his leadership worth? That thinking process can also be a basis for negotiating with him with respect.

I agree but it may not be worth his current cap hit. I think that needs to come down and within reason I think Vince will do that.

I think Mayo too knows that he's been on IR for the past 2 seasons and has gotten his money and will want to be part of the team again. Both of these guys saw what happened to Mankins and both wouldn't want to be where Mankins was this season.

The big question is, if not Wilfork at NT then who - and while I fully expect them to draft a NT of the future (perhaps the first pick) I'm not counting on a rookie NT. They need Wilfork to bridge and he knows the role he will be expected to play there in terms of training his replacement.

Which I think means he'll get most of his money but probably not all.

 

[mgteich]

Let's be clear. Mayo is 29 and should want to be paid. If the patriots want him to leave, they can cut him, after he passes a physical. I don't see that happening. If the patriots don't pay him, someone else will. Mayo has 3-5 years left, not the 1-2 that Wilfork has.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I hope Mayo can return to 100% himself...

 

[Todd Bradley]

Not a chance.

Mayo has had two season ending injuries and Vince is one leg roll away from maybe hanging up the cleats for good.

Mayo is either restructuring or he's gone. I could possible see Vince getting his money, but hard to believe Bill with tie up that cap hit with the younger Knighton and Raji on the open market.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Contracts to deal with before the start of free agency.

Revis
Wilfork
Mayo
Solder
Arrington
Amendola

I can see us resolving the revis contract, but up to four of the remaining five might have to go bye-bye.

 

[supafly]

Does your $11m or $12M cap hit include the $5M of old bonus?

As reminder for everyone, the current cap hit of Revis is $25M.

So, using your $11M number, are you talking about a $14M cap reduction or only a $9M cap reduction? I presume the smaller number, but I'm just checking. In my guesses I gave had a cap savings of $9M or $12M depending on the 2015 salary given.

I was under the impression that 5m of the 25m current cap hit would count no matter what, as you mentioned. When you take that into consideration, it would "only" be a 9m dollar savings.

I'm just guessing at a starting point, or reasonable range to expect.

 

[supafly]

Ayers and Vereen are the most likely to go. It is interesting to think that we expect rookies to replace their production. I would note that the only draft choices that had serious production this year were Stork and Fleming.

McCourty and Gostkowksi are the expensive free agents that we want to keep, even if one is franchised.

For the rest it is a matter of price. I expect to see Casillas and White back. Ridley and Branch are more problematic. Perhaps draft choices will replace these players, perhaps not.

Ayers
Vereen
McCourty
Branch
Casillas
Ridley
Gostkowski
White

Let me clarify---they don't necessarily have to be rookies to replace the player who may leave, simply cheap first time contracts who may offer improved value.

In other words, it's quite possible that our first round pick from last year (Easley) is able to step up and contribute more in 2015, 2016, and 2017--before taking up significant cap space on the assumed 5th yr option in 2018.

While we "only" saw rookie contribution from Fleming and Stork, we also had valuable rotational reps and defensive scheme experience from Easley, who should be much better next season. Obviously Malcolm Butler would be another who provided good value as well.

We saw another example by moving on from L.Mankins, even if guys like Kline and Fleming didn't see the amount of gameday reps that we'd have liked during the first year of replacing him. We very well could continue to see one of the 2 adding rotational reps in the interior line + a mid/high round draft pick as well. All of those options would be a good example of seeing better value on cheap first time pacts vs. someone like Mankins, who was a fan favorite and very good LG, but needed to be moved on from in order to save precious cap space.

A guy like Dan Connelly could be another example, as could one/both of Ridley or Vereen, with Jonas Gray and James White in the background as potential replacements.