Pats had problems against outs and flats last year

[QuantumMechanic]

Here's a piece on how defenses did against various kinds of pass routes last year.

NE was near the bottom on flats and outs and near the top on several different kinds of long routes.

2018 DVOA by Routes: Defenses | Football Outsiders

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Probably not the ideal time to post this, with all the trades, cuts, signings, etc.. The article has the misfortune of actually being about football, so it's not going to get a lot of traction.

But, thanks for sharing. It's a worthwhile read.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Yup. Shocked that the wonder boy McVay did not take advantage of this in the SB. Happy though!

 

[HailHydra]

Great article

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Makes sense considering what we were good at taking away (you're giving up something/pick your poison) & Bill's nature of protecting the deep/explosive play & forcing you to do things the same way.

Another nugget from studying some #'s not to long ago.
You throw to RBs early, not late in games. WR/TE are much more efficient when you consider the routes the run & size of the player.

This isnt new but should be mentioned here
You dont need to run the ball for PA to work

Pass out of heavy sets

 

[jah]

You have to imagine their success in the long passing game has to do with their lack of success in the short.

 

[Ring 6]

It’s the nature of football that to take something away leaves you vulnerable to something else.
Also with such a small sample size (30 plays spread over 16 games for example) and a metric like dvoa, it may actually say very little.

 

[jah]

Makes sense considering what we were good at taking away (you're giving up something/pick your poison) & Bill's nature of protecting the deep/explosive play & forcing you to do things the same way.

Another nugget from studying some #'s not to long ago.
You throw to RBs early, not late in games. WR/TE are much more efficient when you consider the routes the run & size of the player.

This isnt new but should be mentioned here
You dont need to run the ball for PA to work

Pass out of heavy sets

Ironically, it seems like we might be planning to run out of light sets.

 

[Uptown]

NE also had major issues losing the SB last year..

 

[Shockt327]

My first thought is that it's because NE plays more Cover 1 press than any other team. So teams would have more success with short pick-plays to the outside.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Ironically, it seems like we might be planning to run out of light sets.

Well, certainly lighter sets compared to before with the TEs. But for WRs, they have a grouping with quite a bit of size, and Jules has held his own in the running game.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Yup. Shocked that the wonder boy McVay did not take advantage of this in the SB. Happy though!

KC took almost 3 quarters to take advantage of this, too. Better team still won, though, as coaching counts as part of the team.

Regards,
Chris

 

[patfanken]

Bill has always been a coach that protected well against the "big play" so it was natural to see that the Pats fared well in those deep routes like the go, and post routes. Allowing completions on outs and flats are consistent with Bill's cover and chase philosophy for underneath coverage.

I would love to see how those stats would look if you took out those completions that occurred that didn't result in a first down. Bill is always willing to give up an 8 yd completion on 3rd and 10.

The only thing that bothered me was how whenever they talked about strong CB play how they never mentioned Stephon Gilmore, who IIRC was their highest ranked CB....and they mentioned just about every other top CB in the league....and some that weren't.

 

[fnordcircle]

Probably not the ideal time to post this, with all the trades, cuts, signings, etc.. The article has the misfortune of actually being about football, so it's not going to get a lot of traction.

But, thanks for sharing. It's a worthwhile read.

Shut up, nerd.

 

[Ring 6]

It’s the nature of football that to take something away leaves you vulnerable to something else.
Also with such a small sample size (30 plays spread over 16 games for example) and a metric like dvoa, it may actually say very little.

For example they patriots “had problems vs flat routes” they allowed 11 yards a game on them.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Shut up, nerd.

Make me, dentures dog.

 

[fnordcircle]

Make me, dentures dog.

It's DOCTOR Dentures Dog, pal.

 

[Kontradiction]

Belichick’s M.O. on defense for as long as I can remember is to put an emphasis on deeper breaking routes to force the opposing O to drive the length of the field and sustain those drives to win. So this isn’t surprising. The bigger red flag, because this could also be an issue this season as well, is the run defense.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I would love to see how those stats would look if you took out those completions that occurred that didn't result in a first down. Bill is always willing to give up an 8 yd completion on 3rd and 10.

That’s sorta taken into account. DVOA is ultimately based on “success points”, which take down and distance into account. An 8yd gain on 3rd and 10 is given much less credit than an 8yd gain on 3rd and 8 (or on 1st and 10, for that matter).

 

[patfanken]

Belichick’s M.O. on defense for as long as I can remember is to put an emphasis on deeper breaking routes to force the opposing O to drive the length of the field and sustain those drives to win. So this isn’t surprising. The bigger red flag, because this could also be an issue this season as well, is the run defense.

I was just about to give you an "agree" and then you added the last sentence.

Red flags in the run game and deep passes?????????? Where is this coming from, K?