MAYOnnaise
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Bet BB's glad to get some heat finally
BB's packing heat now? I bet Welker's really glad he isn't around anymore. Let's just hope BB doesn't go all Hernandez on us.
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Why in God's name were you watching Jim Rome?
A Player who grades out as a Fifth of Sixth Round selection should not be taken on day 1.
1) Long, long off-season.
2) Only two sports radio channels to be had.
3) Heard NFL talk.
4) See #1 and #3
Reaches only exist in the world of fans and analysts.
In the real world teams assign a value to a player and draft accordingly, **** everything else.
Was Tavon a bad pick? His first season statline was pretty good for a rookie and he had a number of bad plays too so we'll see how things progress. I'm not a fan of the pick but there's so much stuff implied in the term 'reach' that it's silly. You can't *know* that a team won't have graded out your guy similarly so you can't pass on him hoping to get him in a later round and opting to pick a lesser-graded player now.
That's a great way to draft players who aren't the best on your board.
BB's packing heat now? I bet Welker's really glad he isn't around anymore. Let's just hope BB doesn't go all Hernandez on us.
This is not true. Draft picks have a value and at least a portion of that is perceived. Just like if you're doing a fantasy football draft, a part of the calculation is where you think other teams might take the player. That's why you hear things like "well, we were surprised he dropped that far, so we took him" about some players.
BB does make "reach" picks and failure to acknowledge that is failure to accept reality. He might think a player is worth that high a pick, but I bet dimes to dollars he doesn't always think a player will go that high if he didn't take him. These guys know approximately where other teams have players rated, it'd be an insult to BB if he didn't. I think the Pats draft with a projected contract number in mind and I do think this is something in their draft process that is folly.
No organization is perfect, so this is acceptable given overall team performance year-to-year.
This is not true. Draft picks have a value and at least a portion of that is perceived. Just like if you're doing a fantasy football draft, a part of the calculation is where you think other teams might take the player.
Reaches only exist in the world of fans and analysts.
In the real world teams assign a value to a player and draft accordingly, **** everything else.
Was Tavon a bad pick? His first season statline was pretty good for a rookie and he had a number of bad plays too so we'll see how things progress. I'm not a fan of the pick but there's so much stuff implied in the term 'reach' that it's silly. You can't *know* that a team won't have graded out your guy similarly so you can't pass on him hoping to get him in a later round and opting to pick a lesser-graded player now.
That's a great way to draft players who aren't the best on your board.
1) Long, long off-season.
2) Only two sports radio channels to be had.
3) Heard NFL talk.
4) See #1 and #3
Deion Branch was never rated as a 7th round draft pick.This is well thought out. I agree that BB does "reach", some of them work (Deion Branch was rated 7th round and Logan Mankins was rated 3rd round), and a bunch of them wind up being horrific (for instance, any WR from 2000 except Branch, and most DB's). I still lose sleep over the Bethel Johnson instead of Anquan Boldin pick.
fnordcircle said:you cannot gauge when a team will take a player because you do not know what other teams perceive as their own areas of need or which teams fall in love with a player or which teams are drafting with a 'fill holes' strategy or a 'BAA' strategy.
fnordcircle said:The question is did they grade Tavon correctly, only time will tell. But it's asinine to suggest that they gave him a grade that dropped him into the range of 150-200 on their draft board and then picked him in round 2.
fnordcircle said:Conversely, nothing in Belichick's actions or words suggest a coach who sits around wondering what other teams will do and then rolls the dice that the top player on their draft board will be around in 90 picks.
I'm so happy I invested the $12/month for Sirius. The Pats talk on the NFL station is few and far between, but those guys actually know their stuff and can break down the X's and O's of the game whereas Jim Rome is simply an entertainer, and not a very good one at that. If the NFL channel is talking too much Eagles, Jets, or the team that is doing the worst in the NFL (which they have a habit of doing), I'll turn on some BPM, Electric Area, Hip-Hop Nation and listen to that or some of the comedy stations. Stern in the morning as well FTW.
I checked into Sirius last year and realised it would cost a couple hundred for a radio that could go between the car and inside. I might look into it again.. might worth the money to listen to someone objective for a change.
You're making my point for me.
Were this true teams would never trade up and down. They are doing so because they are operating on at least some assumptions of what players will be gone by a given spot in the draft.
As stated previously, I think it stands to reason based on how the Patriots sign and cut ties with players that they believe a player has a "value" at all times. I think they draft according to what they want to pay the player they are drafting and this creates "reach" picks because they intend to tender certain players at a 2nd round value, for example, based on how they expect the player to perform.
The problem is, often when other teams and analysts don't see what you're seeing, it might mean you've misjudged. I think the perspective that certain needs of our system supersede college performance and draft metrics has hurt this team in these cases.
Everything the Pats do suggests some degree of this. The Pats trade more than any other team back in and out of rounds. You don't do that if you're not projecting where picks on your board will land. What it looks like the Pats do is try not to draft a player above their projected financial value in the system, which is why they move down more frequently than up.
The difference in the cap hit for the 48th pick (where Wilson was taken) and the last pick in the draft is about 350k. I hardly think the Patriots are going to potentially pick worse players in order to scrounge for 350k.
So what you're implying in your posts is that the Patriots move up and down to grab players based on where they think they're going to be taken (which I agree with), and yet they had no reason to believe Wilson would go until much later, yet still took him 48th because... why? Because they just felt like being weird?
The difference in the cap hit for the 48th pick (where Wilson was taken) and the last pick in the draft is about 350k. I hardly think the Patriots are going to potentially pick worse players in order to scrounge for 350k.
So what you're implying in your posts is that the Patriots move up and down to grab players based on where they think they're going to be taken (which I agree with), and yet they had no reason to believe Wilson would go until much later, yet still took him 48th because... why? Because they just felt like being weird?
I honestly think that they had him graded as a second rounder which, based on what we have seen to date, is a pretty big shame.