Patriots Master Plan for 2009

[pats1]

Cutting Vrabel and Green doesn't make any sense. People kept suggesting that the Pats do the same thing with Faulk the last few years. You can't just look at Miguel's page, pick out the couple of players in the top 10 cap hits that you don't think deserve the money, and decide to cut them.

 

[Deus Irae]

Cutting Vrabel and Green doesn't make any sense. People kept suggesting that the Pats do the same thing with Faulk the last few years. You can't just look at Miguel's page, pick out the couple of players in the top 10 cap hits that you don't think deserve the money, and decide to cut them.

Well, they've played fantasy football.....

 

[Pats726]

Well, they've played fantasy football.....

Unfortunately FF is just that..a total fantasy NOT related at all to the goings on IN football...

 

[Deus Irae]

Unfortunately FF is just that..a total fantasy NOT related at all to the goings on IN football...

I know, and now they all think they can run a team.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Unless a miracle happens, the Pats are probably going to be stuck with the LB's they have know. Which means, their going to have the same weak pass rush. There doesn't seem to be anybody in FA that the Pats can get at a reasonable price and the draft doesn't have any pass rushing studs. With that said, the Pats best bet is to focus on drafting/signing DB's and pray Crable is the next LaMarr Woodley.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Cutting Vrabel and Green doesn't make any sense. People kept suggesting that the Pats do the same thing with Faulk the last few years. You can't just look at Miguel's page, pick out the couple of players in the top 10 cap hits that you don't think deserve the money, and decide to cut them.

Agreed. Vrable wound up being the glue of the defense last year. Granted one would prefer that everyone stayed healthy and he wouldn't have needed to play the role that he did, but while Vrable did have his down games, I'm pretty thankful that we had him - by mid season it was clear that he still has tremendous value to this team.

I could see them lowering his cap hit by even extending him a year for a lower salary if he'd go for it but cutting him outright? I don't see it.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Well, they've played fantasy football.....

Cutting ties to players that are over the hill have nothing to do with fantasy football and everything to do with COLD HARD reality. Colvin and McGinest say hi. Whenever the prospect of something unpleasant happens, you just love to drag the issue off-topic don't you? That's cute but your foray into off-topic land has nothing to do with maximizing the use of resources for the Patriots football team.

Are restructures of these guys possible? Yes, IF it will save the Pats cap room. But for a guy like Vrabel who has lost a step, why not just cut the cord permanently and spend his money on someone younger and BETTER? It's not a pleasant idea to cut guys who have given a lot to the team in the past, but from a purely logical, bottom line point of view, it makes plenty of sense. The team is paying these guys for how they can perform for us in the future, not for what they've already done for us in the past. Those who aren't earning their paycheck are ALL candidates for cutting/restructuring.

 

[BradyManny]

Cutting Vrabel makes no sense. The weakspot in the defense seemed to be Bruschi. Before the injury, he was on pace for playing about half the snaps, the only package he was in on was the base 3-4 (and he actually played MLB in one of the games they played some 4-3). (A natural solution to the issue of the SILB position is Thomas.) If you cut Vrabel, whether AD moves inside or not, you're left with 2 starting linebacker positions to fill.

Move AD inside in the base defense, start Woods at the other OLB position. Have Bruschi be depth at either ILB position. On passing downs, Guyton comes in, AD moves outside - if its a 3-3, Vrabel goes to the bench. If its a 2-4, Vrabel stays on the field, maybe Woods gets some reps as well.

That is the strongest lineup this team can field.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

Well, they've played fantasy football.....

Common now man...I would bet a high percentage of us play Fantasy Football so do not knock it I said We should cut ties with Vraible and Green if we get Suggs (acceptable losses to get a 26 y/o stud LB with two pro bowls) as we would have to make a cut somewhere.

Looking stickily at production Vrabel stats in 2007 (77 total tackles, 55 solo's 12 sacks and 5 fumble forced) in 2008 (62 total tackles, 40 solo's, 4 sacks and one fumble forced.) Since 2005 his tackle numbers have gone down steadily from 2005 (108, 89, 77, 62)

Look I love Vrabel (more then many of you know....not that way though)as we all do but he has lost a step which his shoulder has nothing to do with. Yes if we could get a better cap number through restructuring great as I think he is a baller but just on production not worth the money....now you cannot get a better locker room guy but that is another story. If we got Suggs and it cost us Vrable I would not be upset because the tandem of Suggs and Thomas off the edge was worth it for me. I know the whole move AD to SILB but those two off the edge are scary.

Green did a great job in 2007 stepping in to start but I like Wright better which is why I was for cutting Green. I want make this clear though I am not a guru when hit comes to the Salary cap I am learning a lot on the message board and by reading Miguel's page. I have noticed a drop in production with Vrabel and I would like to resign Wright as I like him better then Green but that is just my opinion.

 

[mgteich]

You would lose that bet.

And will play as many snaps as any other LB.

 

[mgteich]

Step 1 & 2
Duh. We will franchise Cassel and get what we can as soon as we can.

Step 3A/4
I don't think you'd get Suggs for $7M a year, but I have no conceptual problems with replacing Vrabel with Suggs. Personally, I would extend Vrabel.

Step 3B
Cutting Green is as lousy an idea I've seen in awhile. Seymour is in his contract year. Wright is a free agent this year. We NEED our defensive ends. Oh, BTW, we have no backup NT and Wilfork is also on his contract year (although we would likely franchise him next year.

Step 5
Belichick will sign a start safety. Jones is one option. $4M is fine. Or we might re-sign Sanders, or sign someone else. The cap difference is small no matter who we choose.

Step 6
Belichick will make sure that his second day picks are all-pros. More likely is that half of them won't make the team.

================
BOTTOM LINE
The bottom line is that we have many needs for 2009-2011. After all, the draft is not primarily for this year. For example, we have exactly zero guards signed for 2010. As Miguel has indicated, we have 21 free agents. We also have lots of key players in their contract year: Wilfork, Seymour, Green, Hobbs, Kaczur, Mankins, Watson, TE Thomas. Suggs is your focus. We need to focus on a lot more than Suggs.

Here is my master plan for the Patriots to return to the
Superbowl in 2009.

Step 1. Franchise Cassel. Cost 14M.
Step 2. Trade Cassel. Receive in return 1st round pick or equivalent draft value. -14M dollars.
Step 3. Cut Vrabel and Green. Save 6M in cap space.
Step 4. Sign OLB Suggs to an AD level contract. Cost 7M per year with 35M guaranteed monies.
Step 5. Sign S Sean Jones. Cost 4M per year with 10M in guaranteed monies.
Step 6. Draft a CB, ILB, G, TE, etc. Make sure to hit on some second day picks too!
Step 7. Brady is healthy.
Step 8. Dominate the regular season.
Step 9. Win in the playoffs.
Step 10. Go back to the Superbowl and take home the trophy this time.

Alright maybe things won't unfold this perfectly. But if things went according to my master plan, I could easily see 13+ wins in the regular season and a return to the Superbowl.

 

[Ring 6]

I am aware that step 3 is controversial. But the Pats might have to bite the bullet if it is necessary to make steps 4, 5, and 6 happen. Signing upgrades in free agency as well as signing our new rookies will all cost money. Please note that I made estimates to the costs, but I can't predict with certainty the actual contracts. The down economy and demand may all factor into final pricetags.

Vrabel of the 12.5 sacks is no longer the Vrabel of today nor will he be the Vrabel of 2009. Just watching him in 2008 being unable to get to the QB and the teams terrible 3rd down percentage due to lack of pressure will attest to that. The Pats D also had one of their lowest sack output from their OLBs in years. A drop from 20ish sacks to 10ish sacks is reason for concern. 50% output is not acceptable, particularly when it leads to one of the worst 3rd down conversions allowed percentages in the league.

Green is a highly overpaid backup. A GOOD quality backup, but not nearly worth his 5M dollar paycheck. The Pats can look for a cheaper replacement via the draft. The key to the plan is that they upgrade TWO starter positions via free agency. That way they can fill in the rest of their needs with more affordable draft choices.

Vrabel is many things more than a pass rusher. He is a complete LB, as complete as BB has ever had, and as intelligent and effective at everything he needs to do as anyone.
I'm sure YOU would like to cut the guy who has probably been our most solid defender for over 5 years in order to give a boatload of money to a one dimensional pass rusher who is good in a system that only asks him to rush the qb and would be half the player in our system that asks much more, but BB will not.

as far as green, keeping him makes us a better team than not keeping him, but the cost is high, so what we add with the money may be worth more. a better solution would be to keep and extend him.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that we should decide about the plan for our own before considering going after major free agents. My perference is to extend our own instead of major acquisitions. See below for a PRE-PLAN that answers your questions. I would note that the OP's plan has no need for backup DE's and OG's, IMHO absolutely essential for this year and next.

START WITH $18.6M of cap room (plus or minus 2008 adjustments)

STEP 1 (cost = $3.2M perhaps leaving enough to franchise Cassel; otherwise a restructure is needed. Cassel needs to be gone soon after the beginnning of free agency). These two tenders bring us to the 51 man cap rule limit.
Tender VENTRONE at $1.0M
Tender WOODS at $2.2M
pass on Alexander
pass on Britt (he has been passed by LeVoir, and O'Callaghan is coming back)

STEP 2 (net cap cost about $6.4M leaving $9M for further free agents, extensions, rookies, Player 52, Player 53, the Practice Squad, players on IR, and a fund for replacement players during camp and season). Each is expected to cost a gross of $1M a year except as noted.
re-sign EVANS
re-sign GAFFNEY or equivalent talent value replacement for $1.5M
re-sign HANSON
re-sign HARRISON for $1.5M
re-sign IZZO
re-sign PAXTON
re-sign LEW SANDERS
re-sign TANK WILLIAMS or equivalent talent value replacement
pass on COLVIN
pass on SEAU
pass on JORDAN (I don't think he want to stay)
pass on O'NEAL
pass on KENNY SMITH

STEP THREE - NOW THE REAL START OF FREE AGENCY WITH $9M OF CAP MONEY
re-sign JAMES SANDERS or another starting safety
re-sign WRIGHT or talent level equivalent (this will not be cheap)
re-sign HOCHSTEIN He is the perfect patriot, backing up as several positions.

STEP FOUR
Sign the usual set of veterans to compete in camp and for roster positions, for starting positions, especially at DB.

STEP FIVE
Draft well and sign more veterans as needed.
Restructure as needed to sign rookies and to have enough flexibility for the season, and hopefully to extend a player or two.

BOTTOM LINE
I am not willing to cripple the team to bring in Suggs or any other top free agent. The OP indicated what would be needed. We would need to cut two key players. A starting safety for $2M - $2.5 of cap money should be doable within the above framework. Sean Jones is a fine choice. The issue is Suggs.

This looks more than a wishlist than a plan

IMO, a master plan should address what the Pats should do with the following free agents:

Raymond Ventrone, S
Eric Alexander, LB
Wesley Britt, T
Pierre Woods, LB
Rosevelt Colvin, LB
Heath Evans, FB
Jabar Gaffney, WR
Chris Hanson, P
Rodney Harrison, SS
Russ Hochstein, G
Larry Izzo, LB
Lamont Jordan, RB
Deltha O'Neal, CB
Lonie Paxton, LS
James Sanders, S
Lewis Sanders, CB
Junior Seau, LB
Kenny Smith, DE
Tank Williams, S
Mike Wright, DT

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Tender VENTRONE at $1.0M

Bubba is an ERFA there big spender.

Tender WOODS at $2.2M

Why? After two years Woods showed much better progress in his 3rd season than TBC who is the only comparable predecessor. Yates was signed to a contract rather than tender him - do the same (3 years worth $2.1M), it's cheaper and if Pierre continues to progress you get him for a couple extra years before you have to shell out big money.

re-sign HARRISON for $1.5M

Premature, he won't be ready before late summer and more likely mid-season.

I'd bring Kenny Smith back, this is a bad draft for 3-4 DL and Kenny is a decent #6 DE.

re-sign HOCHSTEIN He is the perfect patriot, backing up as several positions.

I wouldn't bring him back unless he's your new Long Snapper. As long as you want him, no more than a one year deal, minimal signing bonus. I love Hoch, but I'd be surprised if he survives cutdown. Hoch has slipped behind Yates at G, he's still a very good C; however, Connelly is moving up and drafting one of those good Centers in the middle rounds or an equivalent OL (Urbik, Canfield) to develop inside in case Neal gets hurt again makes much better sense.

 

[Patjew]

How about restructure Green and watch Vrabel play healthy and at a high level again?

Anyway, I don't care about 1 to 8 as long as 9 and 10 happen again.

 

[Joker]

and as we all know...9 times any number ALWAYS adds up to 9...so there's that...

9 x 3=27..7 and 2 =9

9 x 999=8991...8+9+9+1=27...2+7=9

I think we need 2 good inside ninemen

 

[Patjew]

and as we all know...9 times any number ALWAYS adds up to 9...so there's that...

9 x 3=27..7 and 2 =9

9 x 999=8991...8+9+9+1=27...2+7=9

I think we need 2 good inside ninemen

That, my friends, is science.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Vrabel is many things more than a pass rusher. He is a complete LB, as complete as BB has ever had, and as intelligent and effective at everything he needs to do as anyone.
I'm sure YOU would like to cut the guy who has probably been our most solid defender for over 5 years in order to give a boatload of money to a one dimensional pass rusher who is good in a system that only asks him to rush the qb and would be half the player in our system that asks much more, but BB will not.

as far as green, keeping him makes us a better team than not keeping him, but the cost is high, so what we add with the money may be worth more. a better solution would be to keep and extend him.

AJ,

You can't talk sense to a draftnik, FF player, about draft picks. Un-discovered All-Pros lie under every unheard of player from Okeefenokie U that these guys think go from second day draft pick, and instantly can play and replace a key team vet from Day 1 at Training Camp.

Or they fall in love with some possible free agent that doesn't and wouldn't be effective in the Pats schemes. For example Peppers wants out of Carolina. He says he wants to go to a 3-4 team even though he hasn't played in that scheme before.

I question what he would do in such a scheme. Would I pay $10 million dollars a year to him to experiment and to find out?

Why sure say they. You're Nuts say I.

I'd rather take the $10 million and re-sign Seymour who has shown he can play at an All-Pro level in the 3-4 and should have gone to the Probowl once again this year, on his career journey to the HOF. Paying $10 million to Richard happens to be what we pay him today, on the CAP, so re-signing changes the CAP not one whit.

 

[Lampshade]

You would lose that bet.

What is it like in the future?

With a bum shoulder he was in for as many snaps as any LB this year. Why would he not do so again next year?

 

[JDSal45]

Why cut Vrabel and Green? Nothing in your plan really indicates the need for the cap room. They already have the room for the two signings you mention if they trade Cassel. Just merely having cap room doesn't really help you if there is nothing you can do with it that is better than having Vrabel and Green.

J D Sal