Indy- I don't see them regressing too much, but it will be interesting to see if Dungy's personal situation affects the team's performance.
San Diego- Most talented 'D' in the AFC, and now a more balanced offense. Maybe Rivers' gutsy performance will elevate his play next year. His weak arm is still the weak link on that team.... and the fact that LdT is a divisive leader ala Tiki Barber.
At #3 I'm torn between Denver & Jacksonville.
Iirc, Jax is well under the salary cap, and really only needs a couple pieces to be great. Imho, if Jax had sure handed receivers and a little help in the secondary, they'd overtake the Colts.
I had predicted Denver to be the 2nd or 3rd best team in the AFC this past pre-season. If healthy, and if Shanahan hasn't totally lost his touch, I think they should really battle SD for the AFC West crown, although SD matches up well with them. Imho, Shanahan's leaves his great corners on islands too much, maybe as a result of his run D sucking this year.
I'll go with Denver over Jax, simply because I think JDR can be outcoached by a chipmunk with a dry erase board.
* I don't necessarily think these will be the 3 best records, since finishing 2nd in the AFC West, might be a lower record than the AFC North winner, but I think that's the 3 best teams behind the Pats.
But, all these will go out the window as soon as trades, and FA signings are done with.
Unless Jax's front office completely sucks, they should be in the best position they're ever going to be in to overtake Indy this year.