Patriots Excluded - Your 3 AFC Teams To Beat in 2008.

[SavioKid]

As a Bolts Fan, I'm somewhat blinded by the homer glasses, but let me give you my thoughts:

1. SD: Has an extremely talented team and they will win their Division. They will do well in the playoffs, but I have my doubts about going all the way mainly due to intangibles. These include: lack of experience and lack of maturity. We have a lot of young players on the team and they're not immune to bone headed plays. As for Rivers and his healing process, he is a quick healer. After all, to play in the AFCCG a few days after having knee surgery is nuts. A healthy Gates and LT will mean that this is one of the more balanced teams in the league in terms of offense & defense. Another year to gel with the new coach's system never hurts either.

For the folks that seem to think that LT is like Tiki Barber and/or gutless and not classy, I have news for you. That most definitely is not the case from the team's stand point at all. The media and other fans speculation does not matter here. Mark my words on this.

I got news for u: just like when it comes to the PATS 'spygate' / Belichick villain crap (last seconds of SB / press conferences..) / PATS players last year mocking SD players, media and other fans speculation (like SD fans as yourself) does not matter either! Now U know what it feels like to deal with speculation / exaggeration (a lot of teams videotape other teams ...just one team got caught) / etc.....Some will call it 'homer' glasses for LT.
I still think he's a great player who wants the ball when it counts but I would feel uneasy about how serious the injury was for him not to play in a AFCC game. And I would speculate he was more worried about his long term career loss than losing the game.
I like SD - Rivers is a gamer (few of those around ) / defense ...but we'll see what happens.

 

[Ootball]

I read after the AFCCG that LT's injury was much more serious than thought and would take 6-8 weeks to heal.

He would have hurt his team by staying in. There is a difference between "gutting it out," and being stupid. If Rivers was a RB, he wouldn't (and shouldn't) have played.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Totally agree with this assessment. This post should have been the 3 AFC teams to beat because I see the Pats right now as the 4th best team in the AFC and that's assuming that the offense remains mostly the same (ie. Stallworth being the only loss). This offense can be held in check by one dimensional defenses so there will be no more outscoring opponents. The defense is going to get worse with the loss of Samuel.

The three teams that I see fighting it out to represent the AFC are in order:

Colts - best QB in the game. Good receivers. Great offensive coach who puts his players in position to be successful. Very good defense that's young, fast, hits hard AND TACKLES well. Not the best defense in the AFC but doesn't need to be since they have the best offense.


San Diego - I'm impressed with Rivers' grit but not his throws or decision making. I think he's the weak link on this team along with the lack of a elite WR. However, considering Smith's great drafts, I suspect they get their WR this year. Very good defense, with excellent corners and LBs. San Diego vs Indy in championship game - book it.


Jacksonville - good team, in need of a WR but defense isn't dynamic enough to compete with Colts or San Diego.


Pittsburgh - one dimensional defense, needs to improve OL. They'll be one and done like the Pats

Buffalo - rising team, needs a QB

You just continue to embarass yourself...

 

[bolts_fan]

I got news for u: just like when it comes to the PATS 'spygate' / Belichick villain crap (last seconds of SB / press conferences..) / PATS players last year mocking SD players, media and other fans speculation (like SD fans as yourself) does not matter either! Now U know what it feels like to deal with speculation / exaggeration (a lot of teams videotape other teams ...just one team got caught) / etc.....Some will call it 'homer' glasses for LT.

As for Spygate, I haven't said a word negatively about it so I wouldn't count myself in the group that speculate, but point taken.

I still think he's a great player who wants the ball when it counts but I would feel uneasy about how serious the injury was for him not to play in a AFCC game. And I would speculate he was more worried about his long term career loss than losing the game.
I like SD - Rivers is a gamer (few of those around ) / defense ...but we'll see what happens.

Here's what LT said and I think it made all the sense in the world: "I think a 100% Michael Turner is better than a 50% LT." He was thinking of the team and that if he couldn't make the cuts he needed to as a cutback corner then he would do more harm than good.

 

[VOODOOZF]

Indy
S.D.
There is no legit #3 at the moment.

 

[BradyFTW!]

this is great. i hope everybody overlooks the patriots in 08. i enjoy the under dog role much more .I don't think the chargers are going anywhere .rivers could very well be the culpepper of the 08 season .correct me if I'm wrong but doesnt he have the same injury as culpepper had .it might be worse than culpeppers .

Yeah, but Rivers is at least somewhat able to read a coverage from time to time. Culpepper's entire game was pretty much avoiding/plowing through the rush until he got a chance to heave it up to Moss, with Cris Carter as a mid-range option as needed. He was simply the second or third in a long line of crappy quarterbacks that Moss made look good (Cunningham, Jeff George, Culpepper, Gus Frerotte, Brad Johnson(?), Todd Bouman, etc.). So while I think Rivers is going to suffer a lot more next year than most people are inclined to think, I really doubt we'll see anything close to a Culpepper-level dropoff, since Culpepper wasn't even particular good before the injury (in the few games before the injury that year, his first without Moss, he sucked almost as badly as he did after he came back)

 

[VOODOOZF]

Yeah, but don't forget S.D. has $35 million to improve in the off season.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Yeah, but don't forget S.D. has $35 million to improve in the off season.

Good point- who do you see them signing? IMO their major need right now is at WR, but, after Randy Moss, the FA market is looking pretty average right now. Depending on what the Pats work out, I could see them perhaps getting Moss or Stallworth, or maybe someone good will be cut (Marty Booker was earlier today). They could also go for a guy like Bernard Berrian or D.J. Hackett, which would improve them quite a bit. Given that chances are good that Rivers might need some time off next year, do they need to invest some more in a backup, or can Volek handle the job?

With SD, my major worry would be LT. When does he start slowing down? It can happen in a hurry with RB, and, while Turner would be just fine as a starter in the league, the Chargers obviously get a lot less dangerous if LT has any dropoff.

 

[bolts_fan]

Good point- who do you see them signing? IMO their major need right now is at WR, but, after Randy Moss, the FA market is looking pretty average right now. Depending on what the Pats work out, I could see them perhaps getting Moss or Stallworth, or maybe someone good will be cut (Marty Booker was earlier today). They could also go for a guy like Bernard Berrian or D.J. Hackett, which would improve them quite a bit. Given that chances are good that Rivers might need some time off next year, do they need to invest some more in a backup, or can Volek handle the job?

With SD, my major worry would be LT. When does he start slowing down? It can happen in a hurry with RB, and, while Turner would be just fine as a starter in the league, the Chargers obviously get a lot less dangerous if LT has any dropoff.

I would say that LT's eventual decline would be a big concern for the Chargers, but indications are that he won't start declining for a few years yet. And even then, it may be very gradual. He's taken advice from one of the best RB's in the game in terms of longevity, Emmitt Smith, and it certainly shows. His stats through 2007:

RUSHING:
Year Team G Att Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD Lng 1st 1st% 20+ 40+ FUM
2007 San Diego Chargers 16 315 19.7 1,474 4.7 92.1 15 49 75 23.8 13 2 0
2006 San Diego Chargers 16 348 21.8 1,815 5.2 113.4 28 85T 81 23.3 12 7 2
2005 San Diego Chargers 16 339 21.2 1,462 4.3 91.4 18 62 71 20.9 8 2 2
2004 San Diego Chargers 15 339 22.6 1,335 3.9 89.0 17 42 68 20.1 6 1 5
2003 San Diego Chargers 16 313 19.6 1,645 5.3 102.8 13 73T 81 25.9 12 5 2
2002 San Diego Chargers 16 372 23.2 1,683 4.5 105.2 14 76 90 24.2 12 2 2
2001 San Diego Chargers 16 339 21.2 1,236 3.6 77.2 10 54 67 19.8 7 1 5

RECEIVING:
Year Team G Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Long TD 20+ 40+ 1st FUM
2007 San Diego Chargers 16 60 475 7.9 29.7 36 3 6 0 21 0
2006 San Diego Chargers 16 56 508 9.1 31.8 51T 3 4 1 22 0
2005 San Diego Chargers 16 51 370 7.3 23.1 41 2 4 1 15 1
2004 San Diego Chargers 15 53 441 8.3 29.4 74T 1 3 3 16 1
2003 San Diego Chargers 16 100 725 7.3 45.3 73T 4 5 2 26 0
2002 San Diego Chargers 16 79 489 6.2 30.6 30 1 2 0 20 1
2001 San Diego Chargers 16 59 367 6.2 22.9 27 0 1 0 12 3


Considering that the 2006 season was a freak season for him, his production has been remarkably consistent over his career thus far. I'm looking for LT to get at least 3 more years of the same output before we start to see any decline. But if he stays healthy, which he has had the good luck to, he may certainly put up those numbers for another 5 years at least.

But it's a legitimate concern and I'm sure AJ Smith will be working on it.

 

[Watson's IQ]

Just adding my two cents, I haven't had time to read through the whole thread.

1. Chargers

I know a lot of people around here aren't in love with this team, but I can't see any reason why they'd be any worse than last year. They play in a weak division and also get the privilege of playing the AFC East. This team has talent and is young, and I see no reason they shouldn't be right up there again.

2. Colts

I don't need to go beyond the obvious here, but this team shouldn't be much worse next year than it was this year, and that will continue to be the case as long as Peyton is in his prime. They should be fine on offense and showed a lot of defensive improvement this year.

3. Jaguars

I liked what I saw from this team in 2007, and even though I think they have talent they always seem like that fringe contender who's "right on the cusp" and "a team you don't want to see in the playoffs". Where you group them depends on whether you'd rather call them the "worst of the good" or the "best of the bad", but I see them in a similar role again next season. Reminds me of what my political science professors used to say about Brazil, the richest of third world countries: Brazil is the country of the future, and they always will be.

The Jaguars are the team of the future, and they always will be. (Not a compliment, if you missed it)

Just missed: Cleveland, Pittsburgh

 

[nittanylions52]

You are right on all counts... no arguments here. The Pats have owned us for the past decade, but even with my homer glasses on, it's hard to deny that the Bills are an up and coming team. Not good enough to challenge for the AFC east crown yet, but we are closer than people give us credit for. And miles ahead of the Jets and Dolphins.

I don't need (or deserve) respect from Pats fans as a Bills fan. I just now feel a certain "kinship" with them, as I am an expert on excruciating, heartbreaking losses.

I agree, Buffalo is an up-and-coming team as long as two things happen: 1) Trent Edwards develops into at least a decent QB, and 2) they fill the necessary holes this offseason (DT, WR, TE, CB, maybe C).

I have confidence that number 2 will happen, but even then the players will take a year or two to develop. Though they should still be able to contribute a decent amount. And I also believe that number 1 will happen, though I'm a little skeptical. It will be interesting to see.

 

[DropKick Flutie]

I agree, Buffalo is an up-and-coming team as long as two things happen: 1) Trent Edwards develops into at least a decent QB, and 2) they fill the necessary holes this offseason (DT, WR, TE, CB, maybe C).

I have confidence that number 2 will happen, but even then the players will take a year or two to develop. Though they should still be able to contribute a decent amount. And I also believe that number 1 will happen, though I'm a little skeptical. It will be interesting to see.

You are dead on and well informed. I would also add that the Bills need another LB to compliment Poz. Bills fans are really pushing to draft a certain Penn St LB that I'm sure you are aware of.

 

[OhExaulted1]

Totally agree with this assessment. This post should have been the 3 AFC teams to beat because I see the Pats right now as the 4th best team in the AFC and that's assuming that the offense remains mostly the same (ie. Stallworth being the only loss). This offense can be held in check by one dimensional defenses so there will be no more outscoring opponents. The defense is going to get worse with the loss of Samuel.

The three teams that I see fighting it out to represent the AFC are in order:

Colts - best QB in the game. Good receivers. Great offensive coach who puts his players in position to be successful. Very good defense that's young, fast, hits hard AND TACKLES well. Not the best defense in the AFC but doesn't need to be since they have the best offense.


San Diego - I'm impressed with Rivers' grit but not his throws or decision making. I think he's the weak link on this team along with the lack of a elite WR. However, considering Smith's great drafts, I suspect they get their WR this year. Very good defense, with excellent corners and LBs. San Diego vs Indy in championship game - book it.


Jacksonville - good team, in need of a WR but defense isn't dynamic enough to compete with Colts or San Diego.


Pittsburgh - one dimensional defense, needs to improve OL. They'll be one and done like the Pats

Buffalo - rising team, needs a QB

So, a team that outscored 18 out of 19 opponents will no longer be able to outscore any of their opponents. This is terrible. 18-1 to 0-16. The AFCCG is already "booked" so I guess I shouldn't even watch anymore.

Thank you for your fortune telling skills. You are a modern day Oracle of Delphi.