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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by robertweathers, Aug 2, 2007.

  1. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    We all know that the BeliPioli have hit the jackpot in the draft on a number of players. Seeing that my workload is a little light today, I thought I might try to do some analysis to see what their sucess rate is based on player contribution as it relates to where the player was drafted. I.E, the lower a player was drafted and the more they contribute, the higher the mark. Scoring goes like this. 0 is didnt make the team. 1 is terrible. 5 is pick = production. 10 is home run on a log shot or has been tremendous for the team.

    Supposidly, if you get 2 starters and 3 backups in a draft, you are ahead of the game.

    Again, the scale is based on VALUE. Let the discussion begin!

    2000
    2 Adrian Klemm -3- had value in a trade to GB
    3 J.R. Redmond -3- had some moments in 2001, but still dissapointed
    4 Greg Robinson-Randall -5- was a starter on SB team
    5a Dave Stachelski -0
    5b Jeff Marriott -1
    6a Antwan Harris -4- had some moments for a 6th rounder
    6b Tom Brady -10
    6c David Nugent -1
    7a Casey Tisdale -0
    7b Patrick Pass -7- his contributions for a 7th rounder was excellent

    Score: 34- Brady & Pass made their draft. Other than that, very marginal w/o
    BB being the #1 pick doen't count!

    2001

    1 Richard Seymour -9. even at #6, hes a pot'l HoFer
    2 Matt Light - 8 almost a probowler. solid
    3 Brock Williams -0
    4a Kenyatta Jones -1
    4b Jabari Holloway -0
    5 Hakim Akbar -0
    6a Arther Love -0
    6b Leonard Myers -1
    7a Owen Pochman -0- doing well for the G-men
    7b T.J. Turner -0

    Score: 19- Sey and Light saved their draft. Otherwise poor

    2002
    1 Daniel Graham -4- solid, but not #1 pick production.
    2 Deion Branch -8- solid production
    4a Rohan Davey -1- did nothing
    4b Jarvis Green -7- great value
    7a Antwoine Womack -0
    7b David Givens-8- great, great value for a 7th rounder.

    Total: 28- for only 6 picks, excellent

    2003
    Ty Warren - 8- a star in the making
    2a Eugene Wilson 6- should be a 7, but injuries have slowed him
    2b Bethel Johnson 3- showed flashes in 2003 and helped the team
    4a Dan Klecko - 4- had some value
    4b Asante Samuel -8 great value for a 4th rounder
    5 Dan Koppen -8- see Samuel
    6 Kliff Kingsbury -0
    7a Spencer Nead -0
    7b Tully Banta-Cain -7-not bad for a 7th rounder
    7c Ethan Kelley -1

    Score 45- Put us over the top in 03 and 04. 10 picks but did very well

    2004
    1a Vince Wilfork - 7- almost at Warren level
    1b Benjamin Watson -5- about where he should be for a #1
    2b Marquise Hill -1 -all due respect to the departed, but was a bust
    3 Guss Scott - 2- did some stuff
    4a Dexter Reid -2- see Scott
    4b Cedric Cobbs - 1
    5 P.K. Sam -1. did well with the Ravens before getting hurt
    7 Christian Morton -0

    Special Case: Randall Gay- 8- UFA saves the secondary in 04.

    Score: 27. Wilfork & Gay saved the draft. watson should improve too. Weak otherwise.

    Getting a little tougher to judge. Jury still out.
    2005

    1 Logan Mankins -7. Solid .Probowl this year gets him up there
    3a Ellis Hobbs -6. Hes a starter with more room to grow
    3b Nick Kaczur -4 Ups and downs. maybe a little dissapointing
    4 James Sanders -5. Upward trajectory. Good backup. making a move this year
    5 Ryan Claridge -0
    7a Matt Cassel -6- Production and performance is overall sketchy, but should have some trade value and has done well in games. Bradys pony in the barn has value.
    7b Andy Stokes -0

    Score: 28- mankins, hobbs and sanders can make this draft exceptional

    2006
    1 Laurence Maroney -6 -Amazing potential. stay healthy!
    2 Chad Jackson -3- had some TDs last year. Dissaponting so far
    3 David Thomas -4- should emerge and catch 20--30 balls this year
    4a Garrett Mills -1- done nothing yet. still hurt
    4b Stephen Gostkowski -7- making us forget about #4. Nice pick
    5a Ryan O'Callaghan -6- very nice value in the 5th round.
    6a Jeremy Mincey -1- didnt do much last year. might emerge this year
    6b Dan Stevenson -0
    6c Le Kevin Smith -1 could make the team
    7 Willie Andrews -2 good STer

    Score: 31 - Seems high to to me, but value per pick seems in line.

    2007 (Projected)- What the hell. The whole thing is subjective anyway. I did go to one practice...
    1 Brandon Meriweather - 5- This kid will make an impact and justify the pick. No question.
    4 Kareem Brown -3 Should make the team as a backup.
    5 Clint Oldenburg -1- maybe a PQ
    6a Justin Rogers - 1 -I'm up in the air on this guy. Good size. PQ
    6b Mike Richardson -5- He makes this team. Something about him.Good value
    6c Justise Hairston - 1-IR- should be an incomplete
    6d Corey Hilliard -0 cut
    7 Oscar Lua - 1- PQ until he learns the D
    7 Mike Elgin - 0 cut.

    Score: 16- Way too early I know. Gut tells me it's a weak draft. Because of our depth, might see some guys get picked up by other teams.

    IMO, 2000, 2001 were thin but critical drafts as we picked up our franchise QB and best defensive player and anchor for the O-Line. 2002, 2003, 2004 were solid drafts as complimentary players were added and potential pro-bowlers in Warren and Koppen were added. 2005 and 2007 seem thin, but solid. 2006 IMO is right behind 2003 for being the best. Time will tell!
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2007
  2. psychoPat

    psychoPat Role Player PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Nice how you avoided grade inflation!

    Credible analysis ... puts our adulation for the f/o into better perspective.

    I still think of the '07 draft as including Welker and Moss ... much as '04 included Dillon
    and [whenever] got us Starks :-(
  3. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Hmmm. Dillon for a 2nd rounder...I'd say that was a 7 w/ a easy grading scale. 1 good year. 1 less than good year and 1 monster season and a SB. Maybe it's an 8. ;-).

    If they even partially contributed on a SB team, thats worth a point.
  4. Crazy Patriot Guy

    Crazy Patriot Guy Rookie

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    #11 Jersey

    Not bad. If anything I would say you were a little too tough in grading.

    I do disagree though on Graham. I would put him at a 7, 6 at the lowest. His exceptional blocking ability is what lowered his production, not his receiving skills. He was forced into blocking more than we should have used him there. I think we saw the playmaking ability he has when he was given the chance, it's just that we obviously prefered Brady having time to throw.

    Again, with as much help as he gave us blocking, I would consider him a TE/OL hybrid.
  5. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    "6a Jeremy Mincey -1- didnt do much last year. might emerge this year"

    We're giving points to guys we CUT and value for emerging this year as a member of another NFL team???
  6. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    My beef with him is that he did have stone hands sometimes and seemed to miss more than his share of games.

    As far as being a teammate, a champion and the best damn blocking TE in the business, he was worthy of the pick. Thats why I had him with a 5.

    6 makes sense too. For a 7, he would have needed to be more productive in the passing game ala Watson.

    I'm tough!
  7. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I believe Klemm was signed as a Free Agent by GB.
  8. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    I messed up. I was thinking of Pierre Woods who was a undrafted FA in 2006. My bad.

    Mincey should have been a 0
  9. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Yep. Ironically enough, Klemm was just signed by the Raiders today.
  10. PromisedLand

    PromisedLand Virtual Internet Person

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    2007 (Projected)- What the hell. The whole thing is subjective anyway. I did go to one practice...
    1 Brandon Meriweather - 5- This kid will make an impact and justify the pick. No question.
    2 Wes Welker - 8
    3 Randy Moss - 8
    4 Kareem Brown -3 Should make the team as a backup.
    5 Clint Oldenburg -1- maybe a PQ
    6a Justin Rogers - 1 -I'm up in the air on this guy. Good size. PQ
    6b Mike Richardson -5- He makes this team. Something about him.Good value
    6c Justise Hairston - 1-IR- should be an incomplete
    6d Corey Hilliard -0 cut
    7 Oscar Lua - 1- PQ until he learns the D
    7 Mike Elgin - 0 cut.

    Score: 32 - you have to count what they got out of the draft picks whatever way it comes, not just in terms of college players
  11. Wretch

    Wretch Rookie

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    It might be interesting to see the same analysis applied to free agents and trade aquisitions over the same time period.
    Off the top of my head (and without much forethought):
    Starks -1
    Vrabel -7
    Harrison-7
    Dillon-7
    Colvin-6
    Vinnie-3 (he did get a TD)
    Flutie-3 (the drop kick may be worth giving him a 4)

    Great post BTW.
  12. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Sad for him, BB had wanted to keep him.
  13. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Klecko was a better pick than Bethel Johnson???? Johnson was excellent returner. Klecko took up roster space.

    I think that when you get a probowler after the top 10 in the draft, you ahve a 10. Mankins is 9 and soon to be a 10. Hobbs is an 8 for me.

    I too think that trades should be included.
  14. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Point taken but I wanted the analysis to be strictly be based off of college players selected via a draft pick/rookie signed.

    How do you know Welker and Moss are 8s already? I dont meant to be a stickler here but in the spirit of what we are discussing, they do not have a history with the team yet to warrant a grade.
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2007
  15. PromisedLand

    PromisedLand Virtual Internet Person

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    As to your first point, I see your intent but I don't think it is a fair way to grade a draft (although it is the way most writers do it, but we're smarter than them here, aren't we?) ;) If we traded our entire draft for a bunch of hall-of-famers in their primes by your method it would be a bust, but in fact it would be the best draft ever.

    Regarding your second point, I didn't put a lot of thought into trying to understand your grading system. I noticed that Warren, Koppen and Samuel were 8s, and I figured Moss and Welker might be more or less in the same category. But if you drop them a point or two my main point remains that you have to count them.
  16. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    As a 2nd round pick, Johnson was a full-blown bust. He had a handful of outsanding plays, but overall was a bitter disspointment for this team as it relates to hsi draft status.

    With Klecko, he was a slight dissapointment seeing that hes a 4 so IMO the expectations should be lower. He was drafted in the 4th round and from 2003-2005, he was on punt, kick, goaline and 3rd and long situations. He had some sacks, catches, runs, etc. He did a lot of things. Personally I thought the Pats reached with him in the 4th round, but overall his contributions were more inline with a 6th rounder IMO. Bethels was about a 5th-7th round.
  17. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    My Mason/Dixon line is when a pick is traded, a pick is not made. The pick is simply being used a chip to acquire a proven commodity. The acquiring team is getting a known quantity (of some sort) and paying more for it than a regular draft pick at that spot. In my exercise, I want to somhow quantitatively see how the Pats did when actually executing on a pick and selecting non-NFL players. This tells me somewhat how good they are at drafting unproven football players and with that player, were they on the mark in terms of judging how this player would fit into their system.

    To factor in what you want to do, I agree, it makes sense. But you can't stop there. You need to look at how they derived at that pick and was value realized. As an example, look at the transaction below.

    "The Patriots acquired CB Duane Starks from the Arizona Cardinals along with a fifth round pick in the 2005 draft (145th overall - Traded to Detroit) in exchange for a third round pick (95th overall - LB Darryl Blackstock) and a fifth round pick (168th overall - LB Lance Mitchell)."

    Duane Starks. Yea. We all know he sucked. In 2005, he had 28 tackles and 5 passes defensed. Zero picks (I thought he had one actually vs. AZ) Would our 3rd & 5th that year been more productive? We will never know. But if BB took someone like a 2003 Asante Samuel, we'd be better off in the long run.

    Should I stop at proven NFL players or continue to factor in trades for high picks for multiple lower picks (Chad Jackson was a 2nd rounder and it cost us and 2nd and 3rd rounder in 2006)? Quite frankly, that looks MUCH worse than the actual pick=player ranking that I have for the guy now.

    Anyway, I don't want to come accross all defensive here, but I know I am. I'm just trying to look at the pick made.
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2007
  18. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    I did a similar analysis during the draft season to breakdown how the Patriots roster has been developed.
    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showpost.php?p=402542&postcount=1


    Your scoring model validates my finding that the majority of players on the Patriots were drafted in the first 4 rounds. The Day 2 picks are sexy stories but rarely contribute to the roster. The Patriots hit the homerun of all homeruns with Brady at pick 199.

    Some numbers for players picked in round 5,6,7
    - Average grade = 2.37
    - Of the picks in this range 30/43 scored a 2 or lower
    - 14 of 43 scored a 0
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2007

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