My Blueprint for the Defense

[mayoclinic]

Everyone is predicting a return to a 2011-style defense. The Tampat Two Deep zone.

But McCourty wasn't playing safety on the 2011 defense. He certainly wasn't being paid nearly $10 million per annum to play safety on the 2011 defense. And I don't think the Pats just paid him $10 million a year to play a position (CB) he wasn't playing well for over a year before he got moved to safety.

We had Matt Slater and Sergio Brown playing safety on the 2011 defense.

Also on this roster now we still have three corners that have played press man credibly well in the past. Arrington when he plays the slot. Butler did it often on the outside this year when he subbed for Revis. And Dennard came out of Nebraska as a press corner, and played it on the side opposite Talib in 2012 and 2013. Only Logan Ryan hasn't demonstrated the skillset.

IF the Pats front 7 develops a plus pass rush, and because McCourty is on this roster, the Pats will keep press man in the toolkit. We still have secondary pieces that can play that style with a better pass rush.

We just no longer have an island and a man-only corner for press man with contain rush.

Good thoughts. As Matt Bowen noted, the value of a single high FS like McCourty is in playing press-man coverage. Go to zone coverage and you don't really take advantage of McCourty's safety skills. And $9.5M/AAV is a lot to play for a zone CB who has been at safety for the past 2 1/2 years.

I'd be thrilled if we could continue to play press-man and mixed coverages, but with a more effective pass rush.

 

[cstjohn17]

This is the ultimate thread because it takes so long to play out. In 2014 the Patriots delivered a defense that offered more talent on the back end, in 2015 they may load up on the front seven. Personally I think both options can work but I not sure a so-so front seven and a so-so back end can get the job done....

I hope 2015 turns into the year of "You don't need a good secondary if you have a good front seven".... queue the music for Knighton, Sheard and some draft help.

 

[mayoclinic]

I d

This is the ultimate thread because it takes so long to play out. In 2014 the Patriots delivered a defense that offered more talent on the back end, in 2015 they may load up on the front seven. Personally I think both options can work but I not sure a so-so front seven and a so-so back end can get the job done....

I hope 2015 turns into the year of "You don't need a good secondary if you have a good front seven".... queue the music for Knighton, Sheard and some draft help.

I doubt they could afford it, but some combination of Knighton, Fairley, Ayers and Sheard/Johnson would add a lot of punch up front. Need to rotate a lit to get people on the field.

 

[mosi's man]

Having failed to keep their secondary intact, this seems like it might be their best option.

 

[HawaiianPatsfan]

We have one first round pick. Not two. If you want to move up for Jalen Collins you probably lose your second and won't be able to draft Strong.

Honestly, I think with Suh going to Miami, our need for OG just got even greater. We are now going to have to face 3 of the best D-lines in football 2x a year, and easily the best DT's. The AFC east is no longer a weak division.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Honestly, I think with Suh going to Miami, our need for OG just got even greater. We are now going to have to face 3 of the best D-lines in football 2x a year, and easily the best DT's. The AFC east is no longer a weak division.

I'm not sure the guards are worth taking at 32. Erving because of versatility yes. Cann, Tomlinson, etc., are better value at 64. I do agree getting a bigger guard is preferable. I'm wondering if a guy like Donovan Smith might work. 6'5" 338lb. Played LT at PSU

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

There is so much talent available for the guard positions in this draft, we could start the season with our best o-line since 2011. Not just starters though, Fleming, Wendell and cannon as reserves will give us incredible depth.

That could be folly if we don't use two top 100 picks on the line, but I am pretty confident they will.

 

[mayoclinic]

There is so much talent available for the guard positions in this draft, we could start the season with our best o-line since 2011. Not just starters though, Fleming, Wendell and cannon as reserves will give us incredible depth.

That could be folly if we don't use two top 100 picks on the line, but I am pretty confident they will.

Right now I'd sign a couple of veteran DTs (Fairley, Knighton, Rubin, Ellis; maybe Raji, though I'm skeptical), re-sigb Ayers, and draft a CB, Hardison, Marpet and another OL with 4 top-100 picks. TB's 4th can be used to trade up if necessary. I'd still like a RB, but right now that's a luxury.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Right now I'd sign a couple of veteran DTs (Fairley, Knighton, Rubin, Ellis; maybe Raji, though I'm skeptical), re-sigb Ayers, and draft a CB, Hardison, Marpet and another OL with 4 top-100 picks. TB's 4th can be used to trade up if necessary. I'd still like a RB, but right now that's a luxury.

the best part about this roster right now is how many options they have, and how many directions they can still go. They can move up in the draft with some of the extra picks, they can move a roster piece for more draft capital, they have a good amount of financial flexibility to add 2-3 pieces of some significance.

I am not totally buying it yet, but i am not ruling out a comp pick for tampering with Revis either. That could allow for some significant movement as well.

 

[BobDigital]

#1 Sign a a good DT that can pass rush.

I was thinking Knighton at first but the more i consider it the more i think that is the wrong option. He is so expensive and though a decent pass rusher does not offer as much as other guys. He is a great run stopper and okay pass rusher. You want to flip that skill set if you can. Also I don't want any part of Fairley

I like Starks or Melton (who i know he has injury concerns but i think you need to take some risk here as pass rush is a must).

#2 Sign at least 1 decent CB (not a super stars but just reasonably good). Even if the plan to have Butler start and draft a player you still need no less than 1 vet and arguably 2.

My choice(s) is/are


Tramon Williams - GB
Chris Cullivar - SF
Tarell Browe - OAK
Zachary Bowen - NYG

The top 2 are my preferred options.

Also if you can swing it include Mayo in a trade for a CB if the chance comes up. I like Mayo but you really need the CB more.

#3 Easley must play up to his ability this year. He was compared to Aaron Donald who was great last year. Let's see that.

My D right now looks like this

DE - Jones Nink Sheard Moore Buchanan/low draft pick
DT - Easley Starks(FA) Jones Siliga Hardinson (rookie)
LB - Collins Hightower Mayo(or half decent replacement) (low draft pick/low cost FA) White<STs>
CB - Culliver(FA) Butler Byron Jones(rookie) Arrington Ryan
S - McCourty Chung Harmon Wilson Ebener<STs>

Assuming you keep Mayo but give him a minor hair cut this is affordable.

Culliver - 6M/year
Starks - 5M/year

If you do trade Mayo or cut him then pick up another CB from my list and find a solid FA option for the 3rd LB spot.

Also this approach does not hamstring you from improving the O as well which you now need to do.

Edit: For fun my quick offensive options.

Cut Hooman and sign Chandler (1.5M more in cap spending)
Cut Amendola and add Britt (Even cost or less for this year)
Sign Connolly to a 1 year deal. His market looks down and should be cheap.
Sign Reggie Bush (2M)
Wait on Ridley till you see how the draft goes and unless someone falls to you bring him back (1M incentive based)

Draft Marpet - G (or other in the first 3 rounds), maybe a RB.

 

[mayoclinic]

#1 Sign a a good DT that can pass rush.

I was thinking Knighton at first but the more i consider it the more i think that is the wrong option. He is so expensive and though a decent pass rusher does not offer as much as other guys. He is a great run stopper and okay pass rusher. You want to flip that skill set if you can. Also I don't want any part of Farily

I like Starks or Melton (who i know he has injury concerns but i think you need to take some risk here as pass rush is a must).

I agree with the general idea, but I'd rather sign Nick Fairley on a "prove it" deal and get a cheap run stuffer like Kenrick Ellis. Starks is 31, and Melton wasn't the same last year after his ACL injury. I think that Silica-Ellis for big DTs along with Fairley-Easley-Hardison would be a pretty dynamic DT rotation.

#2 Sign at least 1 decent CB (not a super stars but just reasonably good). Even if the plan to have Butler start and draft a player you still need no less than 1 vet and arguably 2.

My choice(s) is/are


Tramon Williams - GB
Chris Cullivar - SF
Tarell Browe - OAK
Zachary Bowen - NYG

The top 2 are my preferred options.

Also if you can swing it include Mayo in a trade for a CB if the chance comes up. I like Mayo but you really need the CB more.

Unlikely, but an interesting idea. Mayo can't be traded until he passes a physical, and his cap hit will limit the options.

I'd personally offer Mayo + our #1 to Chicago for Kyle Fuller. I doubt the Bears would bite, but they are rebuilding. Then I'd bring back Browner, re-sign Ayers, and play a 4-2-5 / 2-4-5 base.

 

[mayoclinic]

Following up on BobDigital's interesting post above, here's a "swing for the fences" far-fetched straw man.

1. I would plan on running a predominantly 4-2-5/2-4-5 sub defense using "interchangeable" EDGE rushers and penetrating DTs. There will still be some hybrid "base" sets, but sub is the new base. I want some jumbo wide bodies to stop the run against certain teams, but mostly I'm looking for penetrators, not 2-gappers. I want to scheme pressure from all directions.

2. On the back end I want to continue to play a physical press-man scheme, with a lot of complex coverages. The Pats have one of the 2 best single-high FSs in the NFL to guard the back end of the field and to play cover 3. He's wasted in cover 2 and as a zone CB. And I want a true "stud/star" DB who can function as a 3rd LB, stack the box, support the run, play in the slot against RBs/TEs/slot receivers and drop into zone coverage is an important piece.

3. Traditional MLBs aren't a focus in my defense. As I want to play mostly in sub, I will only have 2 true "LBs" on the field, both of whom need to be both MLBs and EDGE players. A coverage LB and LB/S hybrid are both important positions.

With this in mind, and with Jabaal Sheard already signed, I would do the following:

1. Trade Jerod Mayo and our 2015 1st round pick to Chicago for CB Kyle Fuller. Fuller isn't Revis, but he's younger and cheaper and very, very physical. I trust his character and work ethic far more than someone like Marcus Peters. Mayo is expendable, as I under-value true MLBs and he's not really an EDGE hybrid.

2. Re-sign Brandon Browner. With Fuller on board as a #1 CB, it makes sense to bring Browner back. Fuller and Browner would be the most physical CBs in the league.

3. Trade Alfonzo Dennard, Tavon Wilson and our 4th round pick from TB to New Orleans for Kenny Vaccaro. If the Saints can trade Jimmy Graham they can trade anyone. Vaquero fits perfectly as the stud/star hybrid.

4. Sign UFA DTs Nick Fairley (on a "prove it" deal) and Kenrick Ellis. Ellis will combine with Sealver Siliga to give 2 good "jumbo" run stuffing DTs. Fairley has some risk, but is a disruptive DT who can combine with Dominique Easley to help scheme pressure inside as well as out.

5. Sign UFA EDGE player Akeem Ayers. He shouldn't break the bank, and he's another versatile hybrid player.

6. Sign UFA LB Colin McCarthy. The Pats have already had McCarthy in for a visit. He's a solid MLB and coverage LB, and would be far cheaper than Jerod Mayo. MLBs aren't a high priority in my blueprint.

7. Draft DT/DE Marcus Hardison day 2, and LB Ben Heeney day 3, and possibly a DB to pipeline. We don't need a run-stuffing DT, an EDGE player, or a safety. Hardison, like Easley, is a versatile chess piece who can be used to scheme pressure on the DL, and who will excel in sub.

With that in mind, my defense would look something like this:

"Big" DT: Sealver Siliga, Kenrick Ellis. Big run stuffers have a role, but shouldn't break the bank.
Penetrating DT/DE hybrids: Nick Fairley, Dominique Easley, Marcus Hardison. Tons of disruption inside. Chris Jones is expendable, or can fight for Buchanan and Moore for a back end roster spot.
EDGE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard, Akeem Ayers. The strength of the team. Michael Buchanan, Zach Moore and Darius Fleming can fight for a possible roster spot.
Off-LOS LB: Colin McCarthy, Ben Heeney. Athletic, versatile, and low cost.
Star/Stud/SS: Kenny Vaccaro, Patrick Chung, Nate Ebner
FS: Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon (Logan Ryan)
CB: Kyle Fuller, Brandon Browner, Kyle Arrington, Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, rookie

I'd be pretty happy with that defense. My "money positions" are penetrating DT/DE hybrids, EDGE players, star/stud hybrid safeties, aggressive press-man CBs, and a great single high FS.

Realistically, I doubt the Pats could pry Kyle Fuller from Chicago. A trade up for Marcus Peters is more realistic. But as a straw-man, this is the closest thing I can think of to what I would do if I could.

 

[Marqui]

I'd would sign Fairly and Raji on prove it deals.

 

[VectorPrime]

Get Pot Roast and trade for a starting corner from somewhere.

 

[luuked]

Realistically, I doubt the Pats could pry Kyle Fuller from Chicago. A trade up for Marcus Peters is more realistic. But as a straw-man, this is the closest thing I can think of to what I would do if I could.

I like it. But then again I generally like your blueprint.

What makes me think it is unlikely is the Browner situation. If there still was something in the works to keep playing with physical press corners they would have formulated that plan in parallel to the discussions with Revis/after moving on on Monday.

My feeling is that the way they told Browner - essentially immediately - to look for other places is the giveaway that we are going into a different direction.

Now we might still trade for a CB if a team shops someone around and the price is ok but I wouldn't be surprised if we go into the season with what we have plus some camp bodies and a drafted defensive back.

 

[manxman2601]

I agree with the general idea, but I'd rather sign Nick Fairley on a "prove it" deal and get a cheap run stuffer like Kenrick Ellis. Starks is 31, and Melton wasn't the same last year after his ACL injury. I think that Silica-Ellis for big DTs along with Fairley-Easley-Hardison would be a pretty dynamic DT rotation.



Unlikely, but an interesting idea. Mayo can't be traded until he passes a physical, and his cap hit will limit the options.

I'd personally offer Mayo + our #1 to Chicago for Kyle Fuller. I doubt the Bears would bite, but they are rebuilding. Then I'd bring back Browner, re-sign Ayers, and play a 4-2-5 / 2-4-5 base.

I agree that the Bears wouldn't trade Kyle Fuller, he's one of the few decent potential guys they have for their defense. I still think we should be looking at Jason McCourty - I think his brother, Ryan and Harmon have proven that those Rutgers players are smart enough to pick up the defensive system so why not add another one. He does have a big contract and I don't know what would be needed to trade for him, but bear in mind, Ngata went for a 4th and a 5th - I don't think it would be prohibitively expensive. His contract could be an issue though.

I will say this though. Byron Jones will be my first pick in my next mock.

 

[mayoclinic]

I like it. But then again I generally like your blueprint.

What makes me think it is unlikely is the Browner situation. If there still was something in the works to keep playing with physical press corners they would have formulated that plan in parallel to the discussions with Revis/after moving on on Monday.

My feeling is that the way they told Browner - essentially immediately - to look for other places is the giveaway that we are going into a different direction.

Tedy Bruschi agrees with you:

“Let’s assume both of those guys are gone, I mean Revis is gone, but Browner [could come back], those are two pieces that you definitely need to play defense the way they wanted to last year,” Bruschi said. “This is a defense where you do certain things, when especially your cornerbacks allow you to certain things. Without them — it’s a man based coverage scheme that is best when you have corners that can matchup, that can be physical at the line of scrimmage like Browner and then Revis matching him up. Without those guys — this is isn’t a team that continually runs through a brick wall until it is fixed, this is a team that will switch up what they do because of the people and personnel that they have.

“I’ve got to assume that a lot of man coverage schemes that they used, that defensive coordinator Matt Patricia used last year, are borderline out the window because you may not have the personnel to do them, to implement them correctly, to implement them at a championship level. There is a concept change coming into play here in terms of more zone coverages and that is just something this team wasn’t that successful with. They were successful when they could match up Revis. They could use a Browner. They could use a [Devin] McCourty over the top away from Revis.

“You’re talking change defensively in terms of X’s and O’s based on the personnel that you have because for example, even on the offensive side of the ball if you’re in the middle of the game with the Baltimore Ravens and you’re realizing the running game doesn’t work you scrap it. You go to something that works because you don’t want to keep on trying something that you know doesn’t work. I’ve been in meetings where you see certain blitz’s drawn up and the defensive coaches want them run because they feel it is going to be successful. You mess them up in walk-through, you mess them up in practice. Boom just get it out of there. They can’t get it done.

“If these players, especially at the defensive back position can’t get it done, they are going to have to make adjustments in terms of game plans and that could hurt them win football games.”

http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports...r-patriots-likely-to-change-defensive-scheme/

I think that zone coverage schemes tend to get shredded unless they are mixed in with man and disguised creatively. Cover 3 is a different situation - it's essentially a zone with man coverage, and requires CBs with man coverage skills.

The Pats have the hybrid players on the front end to attack aggressively, but you can't do that if you're playing a soft zone. So something needs to be done, either to find another man CB and bring back Browner, or to figure out something more creative. I don't know the answer.

 

[luuked]

The Pats have the hybrid players on the front end to attack aggressively, but you can't do that if you're playing a soft zone. So something needs to be done, either to find another man CB and bring back Browner, or to figure out something more creative. I don't know the answer.

And that is the confusing thing about this whole situation. If BB & Co would have been mostly happy with the scheme we ran last year, I imagine they would have explored a plan B that involved obtaining another good corner in case Revis leaves.

As you mentioned, our front end players fit relatively well to what we were running. So why not trying to obtain another capable press corner to keep runnning the same scheme unless you are not fully happy with it anyway. Or as you said before, they diagnosed that given our regular season opponents that there is not enough value to invest 20m+ into a secondary.

 

[varjao]

Fuller was the best Bears player last season, the only way they would trade him is for a ton of picks.

I agree that we are not addressing a RB earlier in the draft once the scenario has completely changed. Lineman, both offensive and defensive are still priorities and I'm 100% sure BB will draft a DB, most likely a CB. There are contracts expiring soon, Dennard, Tavon Wilson, Arrington. If we had locked Mevis and kept Browner I think they would not draft a CB this year.

I think the chances of Ridley staying increased a bit.

 

[mayoclinic]

And that is the confusing thing about this whole situation. If BB & Co would have been mostly happy with the scheme we ran last year, I imagine they would have explored a plan B that involved obtaining another good corner in case Revis leaves.

As you mentioned, our front end players fit relatively well to what we were running. So why not trying to obtain another capable press corner to keep runnning the same scheme unless you are not fully happy with it anyway.

Exactly. The problem with drastically changing the back end is that it affects the front end as well. Both the front end of the defense and McCourty as a single high FS fit best with an aggressive press-man approach at CB. I really think that's the way to attack the modern passing game, regardless of the PI rules (which could be changed to a 15 yard penalty, anyway).

Browner fits just fine if there is another good press-man CB. Revis was the best-case scenario of someone you could match up with anyone and who could lock down half the field, but just because he's gone doesn't mean you have to throw out the entire approach.

I personally wouldn't throw out the approach. I'd keep Browner and get the best press-man CB that I could. One of McCourty's jobs is to make sure that we don't get burned to bad by mistakes. I'd kick the tires on prying Kyle Fuller away from Chicago - a longshot, admittedly - or move up for Marcus Peters, baggage and all. He seems like the CB most ready to step in and play in a press-man dominant scheme, but there are others. I'm still trying to get a handle on the position in the draft.