My Blueprint for the Defense

[mayoclinic]

I'm actually not unduly concerned. We have the bodies to play a decent cover two. If we can get Jason McCourty or someone similar, they can play one side and then Dennard and Malcolm Butler can battle it out for no2. I actually really like both as cover two corners (have always thought it was Dennard's best fit). That leaves Arrington/Ryan in the slot with Ryan also playing safety along with Harmon, McCourty and Chung. Add some pass rush (Sheard and Hardison) and a better offense and I don't think the drop off is too huge.

I'm not panicking, by any means.

But I had a vision of where I thought the defense should go last year that involved some degree of "Seattle=ization". I outlined it in the OP, and Greg Cosell really described it pretty well (see post #33). It really included 3 major components:

1. Getting more physical. Browner provided that more than anyone.
2. Creating "disruption at the perimeter" with big, physical DBs who could play press-man, mix up coverages, jam and reroute receivers, make them pay for going over the middle, and not give up too many big plays.
3. Use a multi-front hybrid defense in both base and sub with versatile front 7 players who could attack from different angles and "scheme pressure". This was largely dependent on the secondary being good enough to allow the front 7 to get creative.

I thought the Pats by and large executed something along the lines of this blueprint. It was a work in progress, and it was far from perfect, but it was (1) the best defense we'd had since 2003-2004, (2) it showed promise of getting better if the personnel could be largely retained, and (3) it contributed substantially to our getting a 4th SB. So my plan for 2015 was to keep as much of it together as possible, tweak it a bit, and let it gel and mature.

Right now that blueprint is hanging in the wind. The loss of Revis wouldn't upset me, but the loss of Revis and Browner together pretty much tears up the backend (and I understand that it's still possible Browner could be back, but for now I'm not holding my breath).

It's certainly possible to have a good defense without this approach. Carolina did it in 2013, with a very average secondary, and Buffalo last year. But both of those teams had dominant talent on the DL. I'm not sure that's realistically achievable this year.

Time to re-think things a bit, at least for me.

 

[luuked]

Time to re-think things a bit, at least for me.

Agree, but I don't think it makes sense to start outlining anything before we see at least the full FA picture. There will be some signings that most probably will give a clue in terms of the direction we will take this year defensively.

 

[patsfaninpa]

As good as our defense was this year, they didn't play well against Baltimore and Seattle. Our offense won those two games. Still want to have a good defense. Maybe we can with an improved pass rush, veteran cb and good draft. Let's wait to see what vets arrive before we panic.

We might be able to have our best offense since 07 with an upgrade over Amendola and a better 3rd down back. Two very distinct possibilities it appears. Reggie Bush and Percy Harvin would give us an explosive element we haven't had since 09 Moss.

 

[mayoclinic]

Agree, but I don't think it makes sense to start outlining anything before we see at least the full FA picture. There will be some signings that most probably will give a clue in terms of the direction we will take this year defensively.

Yes and no.

I think that it's fine to think about what kind of defense you believe will succeed in today's NFL. My vision for that was based on:

1. A physical secondary of big DBs who played a lot of press-man with complex coverage schemes. The DBs who I identified as excelling in this approach certainly wasn't limited to Revis, but it included a big #1 CB (Talib would have been fine) and a physical #2 like Browner, who was identified as a good fit way before he was actually signed.

2. Versatile front 7 players who you could switch up and use to attack from different angles. Guys like Collins, Hightower and Easley were identified as good fits because of their versatility and flexibility. I had Easley as the #2 guy on my board last year because of how I saw him fitting into my vision of where the defense should head.

3. The defense evolving towards a "sub is the base" approach with a 6 man front (4-2 or 2-4) and a 1-4 back end featuring a hybrid LB/S with the ability to play zone coverage or match up on RBs, TEs and slot receivers, and to play in the box as a 3rd LB. Again, this was something that was discussed before the Pats re-signed Pat Chung and used him in this kind of role at times, and guys like Kenny Vaccaro and Jalen Ramsey were discussed as ideal fits for this kind of player.

Many of these ideas were discussed in this thread well before the Pats openly made moves in this direction, and it was very gratifying to see them move this way, and to see the results. It wasn't perfect, but it seemed to be a major step in the right direction.

I'm not sure how to rebuild this vision at the moment, mainly because of #1. So there are a couple of options that I can see:

- Stick with the basic vision and execute it as best you can. Maybe Browner comes back. Maybe in my fantasy world the Pats get NY's #1 pick for tampering and trade back a few spots and pick up Trae Waynes or Marcus Peters to pair with Browner. It won't be as good as Revis, but it would let the Pats play much the same kind of approach, and spend more money on other parts of the team. Realistically, that won't happen. The most realistic possibility is that the Pats get a 3rd from the Jets and bundle it with #32 to trade up for a CB like Peters or Jalen Collins.

- Invest more in the DL, and go to more of a zone coverage scheme. Suh would have been the obvious option, but he's even pricier than Revis and was never a realistic possibility, IMO. Greg Hardy would be a fabulous fit schematically (something that was discussed a year ago, when he was never a realistic option), but his exempt status and off-field issues make that one a very long shot.

- Accept that it will take more than this year to rebuild the defense, and invest more in the offense. I don't like this option ver much. I believe that the Pats strayed from the path of their success when they went this route in 2007, and it was no coincidence that their 4th SB coincided with a return to defensive prominence.

Once the Pats make some moves their direction will become more clear. But in terms of what direction I think the team should take, I'm not quite clear at the moment. I need to re-think this one a bit. The only thing that's really clear to me is that the strength of the defense is Hightower and Collins, and having versatile chess pieces that BB can use to attack (I still believe Easley will become another key piece , but it's not proven). I understand the business reasons and trust in the Pats' basic model, but it is disappointing to finally get the defense that I wanted only to see us have to go back to the drawing board.

 

[mayoclinic]

One last thought for the moment: I do NOT want the Pats to re-sign Vince Wilfork. That ship has sailed, IMO. BB waited too long to replace Bruschi, Vrabel and Rodney, trying to milk one more SB out of a veteran group. Wilfork doesn't have much left in the tank. I'd rather get any combination of Dan Williams, Ahytyba Rubin, Terrance Knighton and Kenrick Ellis - all younger guys who the team can build around for the long term. We need to build the defense for the long term, not a 1-2 year window, regardless of Brady's age.

 

[mayoclinic]

As of right now the defense looks like:

DT: Siliga, Easley, Chr. Jones
DE: Cha. Jones, Ninkovich, Buchanan, Moore
LB: Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Fleming
S: McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Wilson, Ebner
CB: Arrington, Butler, Ryan, Dennard

Lot of work to be done.

 

[IllegalContact]

without Revis, Browner is next to useless since the Pats will likely be going back to the sloppy zone

At this point, I would jack up the offense as much as possible and focus on being a brick wall against the run........roll the dice and hope the passing defense doesn't kill you in the end.....

SO....to enhance the offense:
1 - sign RB DeMarco Murray
2 - draft WR Jaelen Strong
3 - draft a physical OG

I have to believe the younger guys in the secondary learned a bunch in the past year and are all better than they were before Revis and Browner showed up......

But.....to fix the defense:
1 - sign DT Dan Williams
2 - sign CB Chris Culliver
3 - make the moves to draft CB Jalen Collins

If I were to combine the 2:
1 - sign DT Dan Williams
2 - sign CB Chris Culliver
3 - draft WR Jeelen Strong
4 - draft physical OG
5 - sign RB CJ Spiller

 

[IllegalContact]

Not necessarily. I expect to be in sub most of the time, with a 4-2 or 2-4 front, depending on how you deploy the edge players. But in base, a 5-2 or 3-4 would be a prominent part of a multi-front hybrid defense.

As of right now, all my thoughts about the defense are limbo. Not a good day.

yes and no........lots of people are gone, but it is fairly interesting to watch the changes get implemented.......

or in other words, Butler's play at the end of the SB is bigger than ever

 

[luuked]

Yes and no.

I think that it's fine to think about what kind of defense you believe will succeed in today's NFL. My vision for that was based on:

1. A physical secondary of big DBs who played a lot of press-man with complex coverage schemes. The DBs who I identified as excelling in this approach certainly wasn't limited to Revis, but it included a big #1 CB (Talib would have been fine) and a physical #2 like Browner, who was identified as a good fit way before he was actually signed.

2. Versatile front 7 players who you could switch up and use to attack from different angles. Guys like Collins, Hightower and Easley were identified as good fits because of their versatility and flexibility. I had Easley as the #2 guy on my board last year because of how I saw him fitting into my vision of where the defense should head.

3. The defense evolving towards a "sub is the base" approach with a 6 man front (4-2 or 2-4) and a 1-4 back end featuring a hybrid LB/S with the ability to play zone coverage or match up on RBs, TEs and slot receivers, and to play in the box as a 3rd LB. Again, this was something that was discussed before the Pats re-signed Pat Chung and used him in this kind of role at times, and guys like Kenny Vaccaro and Jalen Ramsey were discussed as ideal fits for this kind of player.

Many of these ideas were discussed in this thread well before the Pats openly made moves in this direction, and it was very gratifying to see them move this way, and to see the results. It wasn't perfect, but it seemed to be a major step in the right direction.

I'm not sure how to rebuild this vision at the moment, mainly because of #1. So there are a couple of options that I can see:

- Stick with the basic vision and execute it as best you can. Maybe Browner comes back. Maybe in my fantasy world the Pats get NY's #1 pick for tampering and trade back a few spots and pick up Trae Waynes or Marcus Peters to pair with Browner. It won't be as good as Revis, but it would let the Pats play much the same kind of approach, and spend more money on other parts of the team. Realistically, that won't happen. The most realistic possibility is that the Pats get a 3rd from the Jets and bundle it with #32 to trade up for a CB like Peters or Jalen Collins.

- Invest more in the DL, and go to more of a zone coverage scheme. Suh would have been the obvious option, but he's even pricier than Revis and was never a realistic possibility, IMO. Greg Hardy would be a fabulous fit schematically (something that was discussed a year ago, when he was never a realistic option), but his exempt status and off-field issues make that one a very long shot.

- Accept that it will take more than this year to rebuild the defense, and invest more in the offense. I don't like this option ver much. I believe that the Pats strayed from the path of their success when they went this route in 2007, and it was no coincidence that their 4th SB coincided with a return to defensive prominence.

Once the Pats make some moves their direction will become more clear. But in terms of what direction I think the team should take, I'm not quite clear at the moment. I need to re-think this one a bit. The only thing that's really clear to me is that the strength of the defense is Hightower and Collins, and having versatile chess pieces that BB can use to attack (I still believe Easley will become another key piece , but it's not proven). I understand the business reasons and trust in the Pats' basic model, but it is disappointing to finally get the defense that I wanted only to see us have to go back to the drawing board.

I agree, I was reading through your blueprint thread from when you posted it and it was indeed very gratifying to see a concept being translated from the proverbial paper on to the playing field.

I thought that we had an open window to dominate on both sides of the ball for 2-3 years with the pieces we had in place.


Now, we could look through the season to see what issues we had despite playing with one of the better defensive schemes. The obvious ones that come to mind are:

• the lack of pass rush
• how we always had issues playing mobile quarterbacks who are only increasing in count
• the devaluation of press corners due to increased illegal contact, DPI calls
• sometimes porous run defense

and I am sure I am missing a lot of more subtle issues.

I wonder if BB decided that there is no way to tackle some of our issues when more than 10% of the yearly cap space goes to a corner.

What I know is that letting Revis leave was not a knee-jerk reaction to his price but carefully considered among the key people.

 

[luuked]

One last thought for the moment: I do NOT want the Pats to re-sign Vince Wilfork. That ship has sailed, IMO. BB waited too long to replace Bruschi, Vrabel and Rodney, trying to milk one more SB out of a veteran group. Wilfork doesn't have much left in the tank. I'd rather get any combination of Dan Williams, Ahytyba Rubin, Terrance Knighton and Kenrick Ellis - all younger guys who the team can build around for the long term. We need to build the defense for the long term, not a 1-2 year window, regardless of Brady's age.

The only way I would want him back is at or close to the veteran minimum but I doubt that he will suit up for that amount of money. That ship has sailed indeed.

 

[patsfaninpa]

without Revis, Browner is next to useless since the Pats will likely be going back to the sloppy zone

At this point, I would jack up the offense as much as possible and focus on being a brick wall against the run........roll the dice and hope the passing defense doesn't kill you in the end.....

SO....to enhance the offense:
1 - sign RB DeMarco Murray
2 - draft WR Jaelen Strong
3 - draft a physical OG

I have to believe the younger guys in the secondary learned a bunch in the past year and are all better than they were before Revis and Browner showed up......

But.....to fix the defense:
1 - sign DT Dan Williams
2 - sign CB Chris Culliver
3 - make the moves to draft CB Jalen Collins

If I were to combine the 2:
1 - sign DT Dan Williams
2 - sign CB Chris Culliver
3 - draft WR Jeelen Strong
4 - draft physical OG
5 - sign RB CJ Spiller

We have one first round pick. Not two. If you want to move up for Jalen Collins you probably lose your second and won't be able to draft Strong.

 

[IllegalContact]

We have one first round pick. Not two. If you want to move up for Jalen Collins you probably lose your second and won't be able to draft Strong.

I don't have a scenario of drafting both collins and strong....my bottom line has us taking strong because it won't take much to make sure we get him if he stands to not be available at 32

collins is in the scenario of the pats focusing on defense......they will likely have to move up 10-12 picks to get him......

 

[mayoclinic]

I started a thread on this on the main board, but the Pats 2015 schedule is loaded with mediocre or crappy QBs. 11 games against Geno Smith/rookie (or Ryan Fitzpatrick) (2), Matt Cassell/EJ Manuel (2), Ryan Tannehill (2), Blake Bortles, Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallett, Zach Mettenberger, RGIII and Sam Bradford/Mark Sanchez. Not a ton of big, physical WRs on those teams, either.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england.../the-secondary-and-the-2015-schedule.1117842/

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

I knew coming to the draft board was a better idea than the main board today.

I would have loved to have 24 back as well, but I was always a little concerned about big dollars for a 30+ player at a skill position. There just arent a ton of guys who have made those contracts look like great successes, especially if they werent absolute elite athletes to begin with. Revis won on strength and skill more than athleticism. He will absolutely be missed, but there are a lot of other ways to skin a cat, and the talent at linebacker we have should give us a tremendous amount of flexibility for varying defensive fronts. I also agree that letting go of browner makes a ton more sense as well without Revis, knowing how much he would struggle in anything but press coverage. Both guys added a huge dimension to this team this year, but I tip my hat to Belichick not marrying himself to a system due to one year of success. It was a perfect storm last offseason, and when all is said and done, we ended up with a Super Bowl, and likely two comp picks, while driving up the price of a 30+ corner on a division rival.

I will also say about the secondary, I thought a few times throughout the year that Revis and Browner were always meant to be one year rentals to help get through the brutal passing attack we had on our schedule last year. I cant think of a year when the Pats had more teams that had effective passing attacks as they did last year. Mirroring that with the season ahead, it would have been very difficult I imagine, to envision 40mill being allocated to the secondary when playing the NFC east and our divisional opponents.

Vince will be an interesting case going forward. I dont think I would be dying to hold on to him on talent alone, but when you look at our D right now, and it is awfully young. Siliga is our senior citizen on the interior, which is not uncommon for the league, but I find a tad scary if we are going to also have a very young secondary. Also, if we are looking to add 1-2 interior linemen in the draft, it would be great to have someone with Vince's experience setting their path properly. If anything, it makes Mayo and Hightowers roles that much more important on the team, getting everyone lined up properly, and setting the tempo for the whole defensive front. That makes bringing back Vince as worthwhile options, but that will depend fully on dollars.

I think with the players lost yesterday, its very easy to look at it and try and replace them through the draft, like what the Jets did the last time they lost Revis. I simply dont see the Pats doing that this year, and firmly believe they will do more to shore up the offensive side of the ball. I wouldnt be surprised about anyone being in play at this point, Gurley, bush, andre johnson, strong, clemmings, fisher, marpet. If we re going to look at 2011 as somewhat of a template, we will certainly have to give Tom a few more options, or at least better protection. You simply cannot replace a Revis, but you can replace a Connolly or an Amendola or a Ridley.

All in all, our secondary will be much weaker next year, but everywhere else should be better. I will wait and see if that means less success or not, but I am not convinced it will.

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree, I was reading through your blueprint thread from when you posted it and it was indeed very gratifying to see a concept being translated from the proverbial paper on to the playing field.

I thought that we had an open window to dominate on both sides of the ball for 2-3 years with the pieces we had in place.


Now, we could look through the season to see what issues we had despite playing with one of the better defensive schemes. The obvious ones that come to mind are:

• the lack of pass rush
• how we always had issues playing mobile quarterbacks who are only increasing in count
• the devaluation of press corners due to increased illegal contact, DPI calls
• sometimes porous run defense

and I am sure I am missing a lot of more subtle issues.

I wonder if BB decided that there is no way to tackle some of our issues when more than 10% of the yearly cap space goes to a corner.

What I know is that letting Revis leave was not a knee-jerk reaction to his price but carefully considered among the key people.

These are really good thoughts (as I would expect, coming from you). All very good points. Thanks.

It's good to remember that the Revis and Browner deals came before the new PI rules. And as I mentioned above, the Pats don't play as formidable as schedule this year in terms of QB/WR combos.

It seems clear in retrospect that (1) the Pats realized on Monday that they weren't going to re-sign Revis, and (2) that's when they gave Browner permission to talk to other teams, realizing that Revis and Browner were effectively a package deal.

I do wonder, with some of the points you've made, whether BB is looking at where he sees things going. The point about mobile QBs is an especially good one - there just aren't a lot of good pocket passers coming out of college. There's also a supply-demand issue for press-man CBs, just as the demand for 3-4 DEs became an issue 5-6 years ago.

It's interesting to see the Jets moves to bolster their secondary. Todd Bowles is a good defensive coach. With Revis (and possibly Antonio Cromartie, rumored to possibly be coming) back plus Dee Milliner the Jets would have the press-man skills. Buster Skrine can play nickel/slot CB or a hybrid Tyrann Mathieu kind of role. And the Jets clearly have a dominant DL to pair with that. Their safeties and LBs are relatively weak in comparison, but they have the makings of a very good defense. It's an approach that makes a ton of sense, but comes at a tremendous price; it will be interesting to see if the formula continues to work, or if BB is just ahead of the curve in moving on to the "next thing".

 

[patsfaninpa]

As good as Revis played last year. He was fantastic in the regular season. Maybe, we don't have the top seed without him. We won because Tom Brady played fantastic in the playoffs because the offense around him was pretty healthy. We might even be able to improve on that offense this off-season. I'm thinking Harvin or Andre Johnson and Reggie Bush.

We needed to upgrade the DL. Hopefully, Easley helps. But, we still need more. Would have been hard to do if we kept Revis. I wanted to keep Revis if he was reasonable. Sounds to me like the Jets were just going to top any offer we made. Not sure the bidding stops if we match Jets offer. We'll never know. So, let's just see what the Mad Croation has up his sleeve.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's a very early, preliminary take on an approach to the defense:

1. DT/NT. Sign Dan Williams and Kenrick Ellis. Williams, Ellis and Siliga will give a strong rotation of "big" DTs who can stop the run and push the pocket.

2. CB. Sign someone like Charles Tillman. If the Pats get an extra pick from the Jets for tampering, maybe trade for someone like Keenan Lewis, or trade up from #32 and target Marcus Peters, Jalen Collins or maybe Byron Jones.

3. EDGE. Sign Jabaal Sheard and re-sign Akeem Ayers. Along with Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins that would give the Pats 6 guys who can be moved around at DE or LB.

4. DT/DE hybrids. Draft Marcus Hardison. Dominique Easley and Hardison would give the Pats 2 movable chess pieces who can be used to disrupt.

5. Off-LOS LB. Draft someone like Ben Heeney as depth behind Jerod Mayo, who's contract needs to be restructured.

Presumptive roster:

DT: Williams, Siliga, Ellis
DT/DE: Easley, Hardison (Chris Jones is also a possibility, or he could be traded)
EDGE: Cha. Jones, Ninkovich, Hightower, Collins, Sheard, Ayers (also Buchanan and Moore)
Off-LOS LB: Mayo, Heeney
S: McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Wilson, Ebner
CB: Tillman/Lewis, rookie, Arrington, Butler, Ryan, Dennard

Greg Hardy would be nice, but I think he'll be too pricy and risky for the Pats' comfort. I'd also still consider trading for Kenny Vaccaro, who could potentially allow McCourty to move to zone CB. The need for a dominant single high FS is much less if the Pats aren't playing an aggressive press-man. I hate it, though.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Dan Williams has signed with the Raiders. Maybe, Sheard and Ellis in free-agency. Draft Hardison and Chickillo.

 

[mayoclinic]

Reports that the Pats are interested in Nick Fairley, who won't be returning to Detroit, along with Jabaal Sheard and LB Colin McCarthy.

Adding Fairley and Sheard would be about as good of a recovery as the #Patriots could hope for on the FA market. Let's see.

https://twitter.com/NEPD_Loyko/status/575695703370022913

Fairley is a bit of a risk, but has disruptive capability. Adding Fairley and Kenrick Ellis would give the Pats 2 good defensive tackles with different skill sets. Then add Sheard (and maybe Ayers, too) as EDGE players and Hardison in the draft as an Easley-like disruptor who can line up all along the DL.

DT: Fairley, Siliga, Ellis, +/- 1 of Chris Jones / Alan Branch
DT/DE: Easley, Hardison
EDGE: Cha. Jones, Ninkovich, Hightower, Collins, Sheard, Ayers + 1-2 out of Buchanan, Fleming and Moore
Off-LOS LB: Mayo, McCarthy/rookie

That would be a pretty good front 7. Certainly more disruptive than what we've seen in the past.

 

[unoriginal]

Everyone is predicting a return to a 2011-style defense. The Tampat Two Deep zone.

But McCourty wasn't playing safety on the 2011 defense. He certainly wasn't being paid nearly $10 million per annum to play safety on the 2011 defense. And I don't think the Pats just paid him $10 million a year to play a position (CB) he wasn't playing well for over a year before he got moved to safety.

We had Matt Slater and Sergio Brown playing safety on the 2011 defense.

Also on this roster now we still have three corners that have played press man credibly well in the past. Arrington when he plays the slot. Butler did it often on the outside this year when he subbed for Revis. And Dennard came out of Nebraska as a press corner, and played it on the side opposite Talib in 2012 and 2013. Only Logan Ryan hasn't demonstrated the skillset.

IF the Pats front 7 develops a plus pass rush, and because McCourty is on this roster, the Pats will keep press man in the toolkit. We still have secondary pieces that can play that style with a better pass rush.

We just no longer have an island and a man-only corner for press man with contain rush.